Why in the News
Saudi Arabia is pressed at two chokepoints at once: Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and renewed fighting with the al-Houthis, Yemen’s Shia militia, near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Houthi strikes on Riyadh airport and the headquarters of Aramco, the state oil company, are the first sustained attacks on Saudi cities in 35 years, and they threaten its oil exports.
Why are two chokepoints a threat to Saudi Arabia?
- Chokepoint: A narrow sea passage that much world trade must use, so closing it hurts every user, like the only bridge into a city.
- Two straits: Iran has blockaded Hormuz. After the 2022 Yemen ceasefire broke down in July, the al-Houthis occupied Red Sea plains beside Bab al-Mandeb, a strait carrying nearly 12% of global maritime traffic.
- Pipeline: The Trans-Arabian Pipeline is also disrupted, allegedly by Iraqi Shia militias, threatening oil exports to Asia.
- The takeaway: Pressure on both sea routes is the toughest test yet for the Crown Prince, who already faces an economic downturn and shifting alliances, but fears for the state’s survival are overblown.
Who are the al-Houthis, and what do common narratives miss?
- Old conflict: The Saudi-Houthi conflict is nearly a century old. Saudi forces beat Yemen’s Imam in 1934, and Yemen then ceded three Asir provinces under the Treaty of Taif.
- Sectarian divide: The al-Houthis are Zaydis, a Shia sect making up about a third of Yemen’s people. Saudis are mostly Wahhabi Sunnis. This divide underlies Yemen’s 12-year civil war.
- Not a mere proxy: Strong Iran ties do not make them a proxy, given their Arab identity. They sat out two recent US-Iran wars, and they attack Saudi Arabia in retaliation for its decade-old air and sea blockade.
- Oil flows: A 70% rise in global oil prices contradicts claims that Gulf oil and gas flows are near normal. Iran, self-styled “supervisor” of Hormuz, attacks tankers and restricts supplies to keep prices high until the US midterms.
Can Saudi Arabia break the pincer by force?
- Military limits: Riyadh has an $83 billion defence budget, the world’s eighth-largest, yet cannot dislodge the al-Houthis from mountain positions by a ground offensive. Its Yemeni allies’ offensive has become a war of attrition, a slow grind.
- Thin backing: The White House and the Makkah Agreement partners offer only token gestures, because Yemen has a name as a graveyard of foreign interventions.
- Cost of a truce: A truce risks Riyadh’s prestige, a collapse of Yemen’s fractious internationally recognised government, and a stronger Tehran-Sana’a axis, meaning closer Iran-Houthi ties.
How does the crisis reach India?
- Prices and supply: India avoids direct entanglement but suffers interrupted trade and high oil, gas and fertiliser prices.
- Citizens in the Gulf: About nine million Indians live there, and their safety is India’s responsibility.
- Lesson of 1990-91: Bringing back 1,60,000 Indians from Kuwait triggered India’s economic crisis and forced the first pledge of the country’s gold. The Gulf now holds over 50 times as many Indians.
Challenges
- Exposed bypass routes: The East-West pipeline carries Saudi crude to the Red Sea, where the al-Houthis threaten shipping, so bypassing Hormuz does not remove the risk.
- Second front: Iran has made no secret of its plan to hit Gulf Arab states that act as US accomplices, so Saudi Arabia may face attacks from Iran as well as the al-Houthis.
- Scattered mediation: Reports say the US has demoted Pakistan, credited with the Islamabad Memorandum, as a go-between. Qatar, Iraq and Moscow are drawn in instead, so mediation is split.
Way Forward
- Negotiated truce: Riyadh and the al-Houthis should agree a package that de-escalates tensions, lifts mutual air and maritime blockades and restores the 2022 ceasefire.
- Diversified imports: Indian refiners should widen crude sourcing beyond the Gulf. Eg. Nigeria and Angola supplied more in the 2026 crisis.
- Evacuation planning: The Ministry of External Affairs should keep contingency plans ready for Indians in the Gulf.
Conclusion
Saudi Arabia’s squeeze shows that military spending alone cannot keep sea routes open when both a state and a militia can threaten them. The next marker is whether Riyadh and the al-Houthis return to a ceasefire framework before another US-Iran round begins.
India and West Asia
- Energy bedrock: The region provides nearly 60% of India’s crude oil and 70% of its liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and liquefied natural gas (LNG) needs.
- Trade: Trade with the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) was $178 billion in 2024-25, India’s largest trading partner bloc.
- Remittances: The region sends about 38% of India’s remittances.
Matching Previous Year Question
“[2026] Ships from which of the following countries have to cross the Strait of Hormuz to reach out to the Indian Ocean? 1. Bahrain 2. Syria 3. Qatar 4. Egypt (a) 1 and 2 (b) 1 and 3 (c) 2 and 3 (d) 3 and 4 ANSWER: B”
