The limits of US’s West Asia strategy are showing

Why in the News

The United States (US) has pulled its last troops out of Iraq and Syria as its war, alongside Israel, against Iran enters its eighth month. The withdrawals suggest Washington now values guarding sea routes over protecting allies on the ground in West Asia.

Why is the US shrinking its land footprint in the region?

1. What force posture means: Force posture is where a country bases its troops abroad, like a company choosing which branch offices to keep.
2. Iraq and Syria exits: The last US troops left Iraq on September 30 under a bilateral agreement. The last Syria base went to the interim government in April.
3. Three reasons for the rethink: The war has caused damage to bases, depletion of munitions and high casualties among US forces:
   • over 16 US bases in the region reportedly suffered serious damage;
   • US think-tanks report depleted munitions and long waits to restock.
4. Data exposure: Repeated hacking of US troops’ personal data in the Gulf has made force protection (keeping one’s own troops safe) crucial.
5. The takeaway: The US is leaving land bases it cannot protect cheaply, not the war against Iran itself.

What is replacing the bases?

1. Partner-led counter-terrorism: The coalition fighting the Islamic State (ISIS) in Syria, Combined Joint Task Force Operation Inherent Resolve, now runs from Jordan, says US Central Command.
2. Working through partners: This fits the US strategy of fighting terrorism through partners, not hard-to-defend bases.
3. Naval build-up: The US is sending a third aircraft carrier strike group to the region.
4. Sea lanes first: Washington now ranks Sea Lines of Communication (SLOCs), the main shipping routes for trade and energy, above physically protecting allies.
5. No cover for other wars: The US is unlikely to use its bases to back allies in the Saudi-Houthi, Israel-Lebanon and Israel-Syria conflicts.

What risks has the war spread across the region?

1. No deal in sight: There is little sign of a “durable” agreement that would revive talks on Iran’s nuclear programme.
2. Red Sea front: The war has reignited the Saudi-Houthi conflict, threatening Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and shipping through the Bab-el-Mandeb strait.
3. Israel’s four theatres: Israel is still fighting in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon and Syria. Threats from Iran’s allies in Iraq and Yemen persist.
4. Terror plots: An Omani co-pilot allegedly tried crashing a Tel Aviv Flydubai flight. UK police held five Britons over a plot on the US bombers’ base at Royal Air Force Fairford.
5. Iraq’s militias: The exit required Iran-aligned armed groups to come under Iraqi government control. The US left before that happened, so Iran’s influence in Iraq can grow.

Can a new regional security order emerge?

1. Competing partnerships: Israel-United Arab Emirates (UAE) ties, the Mecca alliance and the Saudi-Pakistan Defence Pact are emerging, each seeking durable security.
2. Bringing Iran in: Many Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are exploring ways to include Iran in a broader regional architecture.
3. Obstacles to inclusion: Washington’s focus on Iran’s nuclear programme and on sea lanes can block such efforts. Continuing Israel-Iran hostilities can do the same.
4. Electoral wildcards: The Israeli elections and the US midterm elections could produce outcomes unfavourable for the region.

Challenges

1. Costlier shipping for India: Red Sea threats raise freight costs on India’s trade with Europe.
2. Pakistan in Gulf security: The defence pact gives Pakistan a formal security role with a key Indian energy partner.
3. Diaspora exposure: Nearly 10 million Indians in West Asia face risk if the war spreads.

Way Forward

1. Naval escorts: The Indian Navy should keep escorting Indian-flagged ships in the Arabian Sea. Eg. Operation Sankalp.
2. Chokepoint bypass routes: India should source crude via pipelines avoiding Hormuz. Eg. Habshan-Fujairah, UAE.
3. Gulf security dialogue: India should join GCC-led regional security talks.

Conclusion

The US is trading a costly land presence for naval strength, leaving Gulf states to build their own security around an unsettled war. Whether new regional pacts can make room for Iran will decide if the region stabilises.

About the 2026 West Asia war

1. Start of the war: The US and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran on 28 February 2026, striking its nuclear and military targets.
2. Leadership strike: The strikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
3. Hormuz closure: Iran retaliated by effectively shutting the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices soaring.
4. Proxy response: Hezbollah and the Houthis fired drones and missiles at Israel and at US bases in Bahrain, Qatar and the UAE.

Matching Previous Year Question

“[2024] Consider the following pairs: Country Reason for being in the news 1. Argentina Worst economic crisis 2. Sudan War between the country’s regular army and paramilitary forces 3. Turkey Rescinded its membership of NATO How many of the pairs given above are correctly matched? (a) Only one pair (b) Only two pairs* (c) All three pairs (d) None of the pairs ANSWER: (b)”