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Subject: Economics

  • [pib] Bhartiya Prakritik Krishi Padhati (BPKP)

    The Union Minister of Agriculture has provided useful information regarding the Bhartiya Prakritik Krishi Padhati (BPKP).

    Bhartiya Prakritik Krishi Padhati (BPKP)

    • Natural farming is promoted as BPKP under a centrally sponsored scheme- Paramparagat Krishi Vikas Yojana (PKVY).
    • The scheme mainly emphasizes the exclusion of all synthetic chemical inputs and promotes on-farm biomass recycling.
    • It stresses biomass mulching; use of cow dung-urine formulations; plant-based preparations and time to time working of soil for aeration.
    • Under BPKP, financial assistance of Rs 12200/ha for 3 years is provided for cluster formation, capacity building, and continuous handholding by trained personnel, certification, and residue analysis.

    About Paramparagat Krishi Vikas Yojana

    • “PKVY” is an elaborated component of Soil Health Management (SHM) of the major project National Mission of Sustainable Agriculture (NMSA).
    • Under PKVY Organic farming is promoted through the adoption of the organic village by cluster approach and PGS certification.

    The Scheme envisages:

    • Promotion of commercial organic production through certified organic farming.
    • It will raise farmer’s income and create a potential market for traders.

    Program implementation

    • Fifty or more farmers will form a cluster having 50 acres of land to take up the organic farming under the scheme.
    • In this way, during three years 10,000 clusters will be formed covering a 5.0 lakh acre area under organic farming.
    • There will be no liability on the farmers for expenditure on certification.
    • Every farmer will be provided Rs. 20,000 per acre in three years for the seed to harvesting crops and to transport produce to the market.
    • Organic farming will be promoted by using traditional resources and organic products will be linked with the market.
    • It will increase domestic production and certification of organic produce by involving farmers.

    Answer this PYQ in the comment box:

    Q.With reference to organic farming in India, consider the following statements:

    1. ‘The National Programme for Organic Production (NPOP) is operated under the guidelines and directions of the Union Ministry of Rural Development.
    2. ‘The Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA) functions as the Secretariat for the implementation of NPOP.
    3. Sikkim has become India’s first fully organic State.

    Which of the above statements is/are correct? (CSP 2018)

    (a) 1 and 2 only

    (b) 2 and 3 only

    (c) 3 only

    (d) 1, 2 and 3

  • Open Network for Digital Commerce could disrupt India’s e-commerce space

    Context

    The Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) recently issued orders appointing an advisory committee for its Open Network for Digital Commerce (ONDC) project.

    About ONDC project

    • The Open Network for Digital Commerce (ONDC) project aims to make e-commerce processes open-source.
    • In simple terms, it aims at creating a platform that can be utilised by all online retailers.
    • This is another effort by the government to facilitate the creation of shared digital infrastructure, as it has previously done for identity (Aadhaar) and payments (Unified Payments Interface).
    • It will digitise e-commerce value chains, standardise operations, promote inclusion of suppliers, and derive efficiencies in logistics.

    What are its advantages?

    • Level playing field: When done well, this approach can level the playing field and create value for users. 
    • Curb monopoly: The market is dominated by a few players who are facing investigations for unfair trade practices in many countries.
    • Prevent market failure: The sector is characterised by many small players who individually do not have the muscle to have an equitable bargain with e-commerce companies.
    • Economists call this a “market failure”, and it presents a legitimate case for intervention.

    The three layers of an open digital ecosystem and their conceptual framework for adoption and safeguards

    1) Tech layer

    • The “tech layer” should be designed for minimalism and decentralisation.
    • The government should restrict its role to facilitating standards and protocols that provide open access, and in getting them adopted organically.
    • Building an entire tech platform should happen only if a standards-based approach doesn’t suffice.
    • If built, the platform should be built on “privacy by design” principles.
    • It should collect minimal amounts of data (especially personal data) and store it in a decentralised manner.
    • Tools like blockchain could be used to build technical safeguards that cannot be overridden without active consent.

    2) Governance layer

    • Avoid excessive government intervention: The “governance layer” around this should allay business fears of excessive state intervention in e-commerce.
    • Legal provision: Any deployment of standards or tech should be accompanied by law or regulation that lays out the scope of the project.
    • Independent regulator for personal data: If collection of any personal data is required, passing the data protection bill and creating an independent regulator should be a precondition.
    • Handling by independent society: To assure the industry of fairness, the government could hand over the stewardship of the standards or platform to an independent society or non-profit.

    3) Community layer

    • A community layer can foster a truly inclusive and participatory process.
    • This may be achieved by making civil society and the public active contributors and seeking wide feedback on drafts of the proposal.
    • Once the framework is implemented, ensuring quick and time-bound redressal of grievances will help build trust in the system.

    Concerns with government creating shared digital infrastructure

    • This approach also comes with risks and we should tread with caution.
    • In general, governments should intervene in markets only when there is a clearly identifiable market failure or massive societal benefits from creating shared infrastructure.

    Way forward

    • The government’s championing of open-source technology for digital commerce is commendable.
    • It should also push the envelope on the other principles of the open-source movement — transparency, collaboration, release early and often, inclusive meritocracy, and community.
    • Even if we do all things right, an infrastructure-led approach may not be sufficient.
    • Therefore, we need to supplement infrastructure with tightly-tailored regulation.
    • We need to explore the concept of interoperability, that is, mandating that private digital platforms like e-commerce firms enable their users and suppliers to solicit business on other platforms.
    • To drive the adoption of an open e-commerce platform in a sector with entrenched incumbents we need to create “reference applications”, and financial or non-financial incentives.
    • Useful learnings can be drawn from the adoption of UPI: The government supported the rollout of BHIM as a reference app, and offered incentives.

    Consider the question “How the Open Network for Digital Commerce project can help deal with the issues with the e-commerce sector? Suggest the approach the project should adopt to make it a success.”

    Conclusion

    It is timely that India is exploring innovative ways to bridge the gaps in e-commerce markets. But the boldness of this vision must be matched by the thoughtfulness of the approach.

    Back2Basics: What is ‘Privacy by Design?

    • Privacy by design is a concept that integrates privacy into the creation and operation of new devices, IT systems, networked infrastructure, and even corporate policies.
    • Developing and integrating privacy solutions in the early phases of a project identifies any potential problems at an early stage to prevent them in the long run.

  • For Cairns dispute, international arbitration is not the way forward

    Context

    The recent move by Cairn to seize India’s sovereign assets in order to enforce its arbitration award has brought into focus the dispute and the related issues.

    Utility of Bilateral Investment Treaties (BIT)

    • After the World Wars, as more countries gained sovereignty, they tended to look at foreign investments as a form of neo-colonialism.
    • Bilateral investment treaties became the primary tool to forge relationships between developed and developing countries.
    • The BITs help to adopt standards for prompt, adequate and effective compensation in case of expropriation.
    • With the advent of globalisation, BITs became the means for foreign investment in developing countries.
    • Although the impact of investment agreements on foreign investments remains highly contextualised and inconclusive, these came to govern international investment relations.
    • The BITs retained the old-world construct that allowed international arbitration.
    • However, many developing countries view arbitration of tax matters as a breach of their sovereign right to tax.

    The Cairn Energy case

    • In 2012, explanations were added to the Income Tax Act 1961 — these provisions were deemed as having a retrospective effect.
    • This was more in response to the Supreme Court’s decision in the Vodafone case which denied the income tax department’s assertion of tax claims arising from the offshore transfer of interest that substantially derived their value from India.
    • The 2012 explanations to the IT Act indeed sought to fix tax avoidance. 
    • Looking into the details of the Cairn case, one can see the series of reorganisations that tip-toed around tax laws of multiple jurisdictions, resulting in the non-payment of tax. 
    • Taxing offshore indirect transfers — a structuring device to gain tax advantage from the indirect sale of assets — is not unique to India (336 tax treaties contain such an article).
    • It is also possible to see that the underlying assets of the subsidiaries were immovable assets in India.
    • The UK-India tax treaty allowed for taxation of capital gains as per Indian law.
    • India challenged the admissibility of the case before the arbitration tribunal.
    • However, the case rests on a distinction between tax and tax-related investment.
    • Surely, all investments have tax implications and the acceptance of such a distinction could create problems even where tax is explicitly carved out from the bilateral investment treaties.
    • The option of arbitration upon an unsuccessful Mutual Agreement Procedure (MAP) resolution is not available in India.
    •  For this reason, over the years, there has been a rising trend in tax disputes involving BITs.
    • The Cairn case is one such instance where arbitration was invoked especially since MAP was not an option.

    Way forward

    • The case raises many questions that administrators must address through reform.
    • India’s model BIT introduced in 2016 rectifies the issue of the distinction between tax dispute and investment-related taxation dispute through the specific exclusion of taxation.
    •  The recognition of a tax-related investment dispute, distinct from a tax dispute, should not undermine such a carve-out.

    Conclusion

    It is also important to note even if the award is enforced, the matter of tax avoidance stands pending before the High Court. Given the complexity, the only reasonable solution would be a negotiated settlement. Even if there’s a resolution in the Cairns case, questions of law would remain.

  • India’s equity market bubble

    Context

    Even as the real economy returns to the doldrums after being hit by the second wave of COVID-19 infections, the continuing bull run in India’s equity market in the April-June quarter has baffled many observers.

    V-shaped recovery of equity market

    • The benchmark BSE Sensex had nosedived to below 28,000 in March-April 2020, following the nationwide lockdown.
    • The equity market posted a sharp V-shaped recovery in 2020-21.
    • The Sensex surged beyond 50,000 in February 2021 and is currently closing on the 53,000 level.

    Factors suggesting bubble in equity market

    • There was an 81%-plus growth in the Sensex between April 2020 and March 2021 in the backdrop of real GDP growth plummeting to -7.3% during the same period.
    • While output contraction had reversed from the third quarter of 2020-21, the inflation rate also rose and remained way ahead of the real GDP growth rate in the last two quarters (Chart 1).
    • It is difficult to find any rationality behind the skyrocketing BSE Sensex in the context of such stagflation in the real economy.
    • Just like the fall in the equity prices was driven by the exit of foreign portfolio investors (FPI), the return of massive FPI inflows has driven the Indian equity bubble since then (Chart 2).
    • Net FPI inflows clocked an unprecedented ₹2.74 lakh crore in 2020-21, the previous high being ₹1.4 lakh crore in 2012-13.
    • The Reserve Bank of India (RBI)’s annual report (2020-21) to state stated that: “This order of asset price inflation in the context of the estimated 8 per cent contraction in GDP in 2020-21 poses the risk of a bubble.”

    Global factors

    • The global liquidity glut, following the expansionary, easy money policies adopted by the fiscal and monetary authorities of the OECD and G20 countries, has led to equity price inflation in several markets driven by FPIs, especially in Asia.
    • Following cues from the U.S. and the U.K., Asian equity markets in Singapore, India, Thailand, Malaysia and Hong Kong are currently witnessing price-earnings (P/E) ratios significantly above their historic means.
    • The BSE Sensex’s P/E ratio of 32 in end-June 2021 is way above its historic mean of around 20.

    What could burst the bubble?

    • Change in monetary policy: With COVID-19 vaccination and economic recovery proceeding apace in the U.S., the U.K. and Europe, fiscal and monetary policy stances will change soon.
    • Exit of FPIs: Once the U.S. Federal Reserve and other central banks start raising interest rates, the direction of FPI flows will invariably change bringing about corrections in equity markets across Asia.
    • India remains particularly vulnerable to a major correction in the equity market because of two reasons.
    • Low pace of vaccination: The pace of COVID-19 vaccination in India, given the vast population, lags behind most large countries.
    • In the absence of a substantial increase in the vaccination budget and procurement, large segments of the Indian population will remain vulnerable to a potential third wave of COVID-19, with its attendant deleterious impact on the real economy.
    • Weak fiscal stimulus: India’s economic recovery from the recession will remain constrained by the weak fiscal stimulus that has been delivered by the Central government.
    • Data from the IMF clearly show that while the total global stimulus consisted of additional public spending or revenue foregone measures amounting to 7.4% of global GDP, India’s fiscal measures amounted to 3.3% of GDP only.

    Consider the question “What are the factors driving equity market boom globally? What are the factors that could threaten such boom with a major correction?” 

    Conclusion

    With all agencies, including the RBI, downsizing India’s growth projections for 2021-22, it remains to be seen how long India’s equity bubble lasts.

    Back2Basics: P/E ratio

    • The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) is the ratio for valuing a company that measures its current share price relative to its per-share earnings (EPS).
    • The price-to-earnings ratio is also sometimes known as the price multiple or the earnings multiple.
    • To determine the P/E value, one simply must divide the current stock price by the earnings per share (EPS).

    P/E Ratio=Earnings per share / Market value per share

     

  • [pib] One District One Focus Product Scheme

    ODOFP programme

    • The ODOFP programme cover products of agriculture and allied sectors for 728 districts of the country.
    • The products have been identified from agricultural, horticultural, animal, poultry, milk, fisheries, aquaculture, marine sectors across the country.
    • These identified products will be supported under the PM-FME scheme of the Ministry of Food Processing Industries, which provides incentives to promoters and micro-enterprises
    • This scheme is being implemented for a period of five years from 2020-21 to 2024-25.
    • The scheme adopts One District One Product (ODOP) approach to reap the benefits of scale in terms of procurement of inputs, availing common services and marketing of products.

    About ODOP

    • The ODOP scheme aims to identify one product per district based on the potential and strength of a district and national priorities.
    • A cluster for that product will be developed in the district and market linkage will be provided for that.
    • It is operationally merged with the ‘Districts as Export Hub’ initiative implemented by the Director-General of Foreign Trade (DGFT), Department of Commerce.
    • Under the initial phase of the ODOP programme, 106 Products have been identified from 103 districts across 27 States.

    Back2Basics: PMFME Scheme

    • A centrally sponsored scheme that aims to enhance the competitiveness of existing individual micro-enterprises in the unorganized segment of the food processing industry.
    • It aims to enhance the competitiveness of existing individual micro-enterprises in the unorganized segment of the food processing industry and promote formalization of the sector,
    • It further aims to promote formalization of the sector and provide support to Farmer Producer Organizations, Self Help Groups, and Producers Cooperatives along their entire value chain.
    • The scheme envisions directly assist the 2,00,000 micro food processing units in providing financial, technical, and business support for the up-gradation of existing micro food processing enterprises.

  • [pib] Bad Bank launched for stressed assets

    The Government has launched a Bad Bank with all the regulatory approvals in place.

    What is a Bad Bank?

    • A bad bank conveys the impression that it will function as a bank but has bad assets to start with.
    • Technically, it is an asset reconstruction company (ARC) or an asset management company that takes over the bad loans of commercial banks, manages them and finally recovers the money over a period of time.
    • Such a bank is not involved in lending and taking deposits, but helps commercial banks clean up their balance sheets and resolve bad loans.
    • The takeover of bad loans is normally below the book value of the loan and the bad bank tries to recover as much as possible subsequently.

    Global examples of Bad Bank

    • US-based BNY Mellon Bank created the first bad bank in 1988, after which the concept has been implemented in other countries including Sweden, Finland, France and Germany.
    • However, resolution agencies or ARCs set up as banks, which originate or guarantee to lend, have ended up turning into reckless lenders in some countries.

    Do we need a bad bank?

    • The idea gained currency during Rajan’s tenure as RBI Governor.
    • The RBI had then initiated an asset quality review (AQR) of banks and found that several banks had suppressed or hidden bad loans to show a healthy balance sheet.
    • However, the idea remained on paper amid lack of consensus on the efficacy of such an institution.
    • ARCs have not made any impact in resolving bad loans due to many procedural issues.

    What is the stand of the RBI and government?

    • While the RBI did not show much enthusiasm about a bad bank all these years, there are signs that it can look at the idea now.
    • Experts, however, argue that it would be better to limit the objective of these asset management companies to the orderly resolution of stressed assets, followed by a graceful exit.

    Good about the bad banks

    • The problem of NPAs continues in the banking sector, especially among the weaker banks.
    • The bad bank concept is in some ways similar to an ARC but is funded by the government initially, with banks and other investors co-investing in due course.
    • The presence of the government is seen as a means to speed up the clean-up process.
    • Many other countries had set up institutional mechanisms such as the Troubled Asset Relief Programme (TARP) in the US to deal with a problem of stress in the financial system.

  • What the new Ministry of Cooperation needs to achieve

    Context

    Two weeks ago, the government created a new Ministry for Cooperation. India is, perhaps, the first country to have such a ministry. The Ministry can play an important role in the transformation of cooperatives in the country.

    How 1991 economic reforms benefited agriculture

    • On July 24, 1991, India decided to unshackle the spirit of private sector entrepreneurship through the move to de-license industry and reduce tariffs on a host of commodities.
    • Trade policy changes improved the terms of trade for agriculture and benefitted millions of farmers.
    • Agri-exports increased, but this led to higher domestic prices.

    The success story of dairy sector in India

    • In 1991, Manmohan Singh, then finance minister wanted to delicense the dairy sector as well, but there was stiff opposition from Verghese Kurien.
    •  It was after 10 years in 2002 that the dairy sector was fully de-licensed.
    • The competition between cooperatives and corporate dairy players has benefitted millions of farmers around the country.
    • With the entry of the private sector, the growth of the dairy sector accelerated at double the speed.
    • Today, both procure roughly the same quantities and growth in the organised private sector is faster than in cooperatives.

    Performance of cooperative movement in India

    • India’s experience with the cooperative movement has produced mixed results — few successes and many failures.
    • There are cooperatives in the financial sector, be it rural or urban.
    • But the performance of these agencies when measured in terms of their share in overall credit, achievements in technology upgradation, keeping NPAs low or curbing fraudulent deals has been poor to average.
    • Sugar cooperatives of Maharashtra initially touted as exemplars of the movement, are in the doldrums now.
    • Many are being sold to the private sector.

    Performance of cooperatives in dairy sector

    1) Amul

    • The performance of the cooperative champion, Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation (GCMMF) — with its poster brand, Amul — has been most successful.
    • During Operation Flood, it received a lot of capital at highly concessional terms.
    • But its success is also the result of professionalism, business and, therefore, keeping politics away.
    • But despite the grand success of Gujarat’s milk cooperatives in Gujarat, the model did not spread to other states as successfully.

    2) Karnataka Milk Federation

    • In its eagerness to please milk farmers, the Karnataka Milk Federation (KMF), which sells its products under the brand name of Nandini, gives them Rs 5 to Rs 6 extra per litre.
    • This subsidy, given by the state government, cost the exchequer Rs 1,260 crore till 2019-20.
    • KMF procures a lot of milk and then dumps it at lower prices in the market for consumers.
    • This depresses prices in adjoining states like Maharashtra, affecting the fortunes of Maharashtra milk farmers.
    • If Maharashtra and Karnataka were two different countries, Maharashtra would be challenging Karnataka at the WTO.

    Way forward

    • The new Ministry of Cooperation can work towards ironing out distortions in state price policies due to subsidization such as in Maharastra and Karnatak milk prices.
    • Cooperatives desperately need technological upgradation. 
    • The Ministry of Cooperation can give them soft loans for innovation and technology upgradation.
    • But such loans should also be extended to the private sector to ensure a level playing field.
    • The Ministry of Cooperation needs to ensure the least political interference in the operation of cooperatives.

    Conclusion

    The new Ministry of Cooperation can work towards bringing in professionalism in cooperatives and make them more competitive.

  • Skilling in India: Issues and Suggestions

    PM has yet again underscored the importance of a skilled workforce for achieving the goal of becoming Atma-nirbhar Bharat.  India still continues to be a country that faces one of the highest shortages of skilled workforce.

    Unemployment vs Skills

    • On one hand, companies in India face an acute shortage of skilled manpower and, on the other, India has millions of educated unemployed.
    • The data for this chart is for the January to April 2021 period, when the overall unemployment rate in the country was 6.83%.
    • In comparison, those with graduation (or even higher degrees) face almost three times the unemployment level.
    • At over 19% unemployment rate, one in every five Indians who graduate (or even better) is unemployed.

    What explains this contradiction?

    • The lack of skill is definitely the only answer.

    What is Skilling?

    • National Council of Applied Economic Research, 2018 — aptly titled “No time to lose”.
    • This report explains that there are three types of skills.
    1. Cognitive skills: basic skills of literacy and numeracy, applied knowledge and problem-solving aptitudes, and higher cognitive skills such as experimentation, reasoning, and creativity.
    2. Technical and vocational skills: physical and mental ability to perform specific tasks using tools and methods in any occupation.
    3. Social and behavioral skills include working, communicating, and listening to others.
    • Different levels of these three types of skills can be combined to further classify skills into foundational, employability, and entrepreneurial skills.

    What is the scale of the skilling challenge facing India?

    According to the 2018 report by NCAER, India had about 468 million people in its workforce.

    • Informal sector: Around 92% of them were in the informal sector.
    • Illiteracy: Around 31% were illiterate, only 13% had primary education, and only 6% were college graduates.
    • No vocational training: Further, only about 2% of the workforce had formal vocational training, and only 9% had non-formal vocational training.
    • Out of more than 5 lakh final year bachelors students aged 18–29 who were surveyed, around 54% were found to be “unemployable”.

    Opportunities for India

    • India has entered a demographic sweet spot that will continue for another two to three-decade.
    • There is a great opportunity for India to improve both its social and economic outcomes if a higher number of workers are productively employed.

    What is at stake?

    • If the skilling issue is not resolved, India risks forfeiting its so-called “demographic dividend”.
    • But whether this will turn into a demographic dividend or not will depend entirely on how many of those in the working-age bracket are working and becoming prosperous.
    • If they are not in well-paying jobs, the economy would not have the resources to take care of itself since with each passing year, the proportion of dependents will continue to rise after 2040.
    • To put it simply, to attain its rightful place and realize its aspirations, India must become rich before it gets old.

    The skilling paradox

    • Indians have excelled in technical expertise at the global level — be it medicine or engineering. Then what explains India’s domestic skilling paradox?
    • A big part of the trouble is the starting condition. Over 90% of India’s workforce is in the informal sector.

    India is trapped in a vicious cycle:

    1. Greater workforce informality leads to lower incentives to acquire new skills. Faced with inadequately skilled workers, businesses often choose to replace labor with machinery.
    2. That’s because “skilled labor and technology are complementary, but unskilled labor and technology are substitutes”.
    3. This, in turn, leads to still fewer formal jobs.

    What can be done to break this cycle?

    • A distinct disadvantage with India’s approach towards skilling has been to ignore and match the demands of the market.
    • For the most part, skills have been provided in a top-down fashion.
    • Given the way market demands fluctuate — for instance, how the Covid pandemic has upended supply chains — skilling efforts must try to anticipate the needs of the market.

  • RBI bars Mastercard from issuing new cards

    The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has banned Mastercard from issuing new debit and credit cards to customers in India.

    Why such a ban?

    • According to the RBI, the US card issuer has failed to comply with the local data storage rules announced by the central bank in 2018.

    What is the RBI’s data localization policy?

    • In 2018, the RBI had issued a circular ordering card companies such as Visa, Mastercard, and American Express to store all Indian customer data locally.
    • This was aimed for the regulator to have “unfettered supervisory access”.

    Why such a policy by RBI?

    • The reason offered by the RBI was that local storage of consumer data is necessary to protect the privacy of Indian users and also to address national security concerns.

    Issues with the policy

    • Privacy: Customer privacy and national security are genuine concerns that need to be taken seriously.
    • Protectionism: However, data localization rules may sound too stringent and they could simply be used by governments as tools of economic protectionism.
    • Security: For instance, it may not be strictly necessary for data to be stored locally to remain protected.
    • Formal international laws to govern the storage of digital information across borders may be sufficient to deal with these concerns.
    • Discrimination: Governments, however, may still mandate data localization in order to favour local companies over foreign ones.

    Implications of the move

    • Indian banks that are currently enrolled in the Mastercard network are expected to make alternative arrangements with other card companies.
    • The RBI’s data localization policy, as it burdens foreign card companies, may end up favouring domestic card issuers like RuPay, which in turn can lead to reduced competition.
    • Mastercard owns about one-third of the market share in India, and the RBI’s ban is likely to significantly benefit its competitors.
    • This could mean higher costs and lower quality services for customers.

    Conclusion

    • In today’s digital economy data have turned out to be a valuable commodity, which companies, as well as governments, have tried to gain control over.
    • With no clear rules on who owns customer data and to what extent, conflicts over data ownership are likely to continue for some time.

  • A panoramic look at our three decades of economic reforms

    Context

    This month marks the 30th anniversary of the economic reforms launched by our then finance minister Manmohan Singh in his budget speech of 24 July 1991.

    After and before reform comparison

    •  The average annual growth over the past three decades has been 5.8% per annum.
    • It is slightly higher than 5.6% in the decade before 1991.
    • Clearly, our growth acceleration was not sustained, despite a pick-up in the pace of reforms.
    • However, on a long-term comparison, the economy did better than its 4.1% average of the first 40 years of independence.
    • But if we compare our first four decades with the pre-1947 phase, and on that score, we saw a massive growth improvement.

    Impact of reforms

    • Their biggest contribution was a change in India’s economic paradigm.
    • Every government after 1991 has embraced the philosophy of liberalization and privatization that those reforms initiated and has tried to outdo the previous regimes on that.
    • Still, 30 years on, the situation for most of our population remains unchanged.
    • The reforms created a class of rich entrepreneurs and a small but vocal middle class in urban areas.
    • But it also contributed to widening inequality, which has worsened after 1991 and is now at its worst level since 1947 on almost all dimensions.
    • The widening of disparities also occurred between urban and rural areas, between laggard states and developed ones.
    • Disparities have increased even further in terms of access to health and education and several other human- development indicators.
    • On most of these, be it education, health, women’s workforce participation and hunger, we remain at the bottom of any global chart of comparison.
    • The logic of reforms meant that expenditure on welfare and investment in human development were not a policy priority.
    • The situation is no different on employment, with data suggesting an absolute decline on this count and a historic rise in unemployment rates.
    • An official consumption survey that was not accepted about two years ago by the Centre had shown, a decline in real consumption and a rise in poverty.
    • Rising informalization and contractualization of the country’s workforce has been a factor in the worsening of most workers’ working conditions.

    Why reforms failed to deliver

    • In many ways, they are no different from our pre-reform economic policies, all of which were supply- side responses.
    • The reforms attempted to use the private sector for the task through a liberalized regulatory framework and business-friendly fiscal and monetary policies.
    • But an absence of concern for distributional inequities and aggregate-demand management has continued as the defining feature of our economic policymaking.
    • The consequences of supply-side- biased reforms will show up in a further worsening of income distribution and eventually slow growth down.

    Conclusion

    Things have taken a turn for the worse with the pandemic. The problem this time is not like the 1991 crisis. What is needed at this point is a fundamental shift in the way economic policy is designed, keeping people and workers at the centre of the exercise.