Heat, weak monsoon continue to push up power demand

Why in the News

India’s peak electricity demand touched 269 gigawatt (GW) on September 10, the highest ever recorded for that month and close to the year’s peak of 270 GW set during the summer in May. Demand normally eases by September as the summer heat recedes, and September has recorded the year’s highest peak only twice in recent years, in 2023 to 24 and 2020 to 21. This year persistent heat, a deficient monsoon and higher irrigation load have held consumption at summer levels. The contested point is that the surge is arriving at the hour the grid is weakest, since solar generation falls away in the evening and night when the peak now occurs.

What is peak power demand?

1. What it measures: Peak demand is the highest instantaneous load the grid has to meet at any moment in a period, measured in gigawatt, and it sets the capacity the system must keep available.
2. How it differs from consumption: Total electricity consumption is measured in units of energy over a period, in billion units, and a system can have flat consumption with a sharply higher peak.
3. Why the distinction matters: Capacity planning, reserve margins and spot market prices are driven by the peak rather than by the total, so a rising peak stresses the system even where annual consumption growth is modest.

What does the September demand data show?

1. The record for the month: Peak power demand touched 269 GW on September 10, the highest ever peak recorded for September.
2. Proximity to the summer peak: The year’s highest peak so far is 270 GW, recorded during the peak summer in May, so September is running within a gigawatt of it.
3. The normal pattern: Demand usually peaks in April, May, June and July, driven by air conditioners and other cooling appliances in households and commercial establishments, and eases into a post summer pattern by September.
4. Consumption growth: The Indian Energy Exchange (IEX), the country’s largest power trading platform, puts electricity consumption at 49.84 billion units between September 1 and 9, up 20.7 per cent from the same period a year earlier.

Why has demand stayed at summer levels?

1. Heat and cooling load: The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI) attributes the increase to persistent heat and continuing cooling demand, with El Nino related weather conditions adding to it.
2. Irrigation load: Deficient rainfall raises irrigation demand, so agricultural pumping load rises at the same time as air conditioning load.
3. The temperature and rainfall forecast: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) had forecast monthly average maximum temperatures in September above normal over most of the country, and rainfall below normal at less than 91 per cent of the long period average.
4. The rainfall shortfall recorded: Between June 1 and September 9 India received 648 millimetres of rainfall against a normal of 760.6 millimetres, a seasonal deficit of 15 per cent.
5. A recurring condition: The All India DISCOM Association states that this type of uncertainty will prevail given global warming and the consequential changes in weather and climate.

Where does the system actually run short?

1. The daytime surplus: Expansion of solar capacity has left the system comfortable during daylight hours, and grid operators have had to curtail solar generation as the system struggles to absorb the surplus.
2. The evening and night deficit: Supply conditions tighten in the evening and at night as solar generation falls away, which is when the tightest balance now occurs.
3. The measured shortfall: Grid India data show a night time shortfall of about 7.7 GW on September 9, when peak demand touched 267 GW, and 6.1 GW on September 10 at the 269 GW peak.

What is filling the evening gap?

1. Gas based generation: Electricity generation from gas based plants rose 80.32 per cent during September 1 to 9 over the same period last year, and gas is relatively expensive to run.
2. Coal at near maximum: Coal based generation over the same nine days rose 25.30 per cent, from 26,135.72 million units in 2025 to 32,748.95 million units in 2026, with plants operating at near maximum levels.
3. The cumulative coal shift: Since April, coal based generation has risen 10.64 per cent, from 553,730.78 million units to 612,663.37 million units, reflecting heavy reliance on coal through non solar hours.
4. Hydropower squeezed: Deficient rainfall has cut hydropower generation, which deepens dependence on thermal generation and has pushed up prices in the spot electricity market.

Challenges to meeting a weather driven evening peak

1. No storage at the scale of the shortfall: Solar capacity cannot serve an evening peak without storage, and battery capacity on the Indian grid remains small against a shortfall measured in gigawatt. Eg. Grid operators curtailed solar output during the day in the same week the night time shortfall ran above 6 GW.
   The Fix: Tie every new solar tender to a contracted block of storage delivering into the evening peak rather than procuring energy alone.
2. Expensive peaking generation: The evening gap is bridged with gas, which is the costliest generation in the stack, and the cost lands on distribution companies already carrying losses. Eg. Gas based generation rose sharply in the first nine days of September while spot market prices climbed.
   The Fix: Run a separate capacity market that pays for availability at the peak hour, so peaking plants are financed without distorting the energy price.
3. Agricultural load is uncontrolled: Irrigation pumping rises with a rainfall deficit and is largely unmetered, so the system cannot shift it away from the peak. Eg. A 15 per cent seasonal rainfall deficit raised irrigation demand at the same time as cooling demand.
   The Fix: Expand segregated agricultural feeders that supply daytime solar power to pumps, moving that load into the surplus hours.
4. Hydropower is no longer a reliable balancer: Hydropower is the traditional flexible source for an evening peak, and a deficient monsoon removes it in the same season that demand rises. Eg. Reduced reservoir inflows this monsoon have squeezed hydro generation exactly when the peak moved into September.
   The Fix: Contract pumped storage capacity on long term agreements so evening flexibility does not depend on the year’s rainfall.

Conclusion

The demand peak has moved out of the summer months and into a season the power system was not planned around, and it has moved into the hours when the fastest growing source of supply produces nothing. The response so far has been to run coal harder and gas more often, which raises both emissions and the spot price. The thing to watch is whether storage procurement is attached to new solar capacity at the scale the evening shortfall now requires, since every further year of weather driven September peaks will be met from the thermal fleet until it is.

Back2Basics: Grid India

1. What it is: Grid Controller of India Limited, known as Grid India, is the system operator responsible for integrated operation of the national electricity grid.
2. What it was before: It was formerly the Power System Operation Corporation Limited, and it functions under the Ministry of Power.
3. What it runs: It operates the National Load Despatch Centre and the Regional Load Despatch Centres, which balance generation against demand in real time.
4. Why its data matters here: Scheduling and despatch data from these centres is the source for measured demand met, peak demand and the shortfall at any hour.

Matching Previous Year Question

“[2026, GS3, 15 marks] Explain the key challenges for India’s energy security. What measures do you suggest for ensuring energy security along with economic growth and sustainability?”