Mains Ready By December. Smash Mains & Smash PYQ Admissions Open
Talk to Mentor

Civilsdaily

GS Paper: GS2-18.Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.

  • Decay in the international rules-based order

    Context

    The unexpected Russian military intervention in Ukraine is merely the latest symptom of an underlying cause of decay in the international ‘rules-based’ order.

    Background of the idea of international rules-based order and sovereignty

    • It was the Diet of Westphalia (in the then Holy Roman Empire) in 1648 that first set out what our post-World War II global institutional framework established as the principle of ‘sovereignty’.
    • Sovereignty was for a long time the singular bedrock, the very founding principle that the UN Charter sought to firmly establish, in order to make wars of aggression (as opposed to self-defense) illegal under international law, and liable to be punished by the international community via the UN Security Council and its right to use coercive force.

    What is a state?

    • State is a community that feels as one, accepts a set of common guiding principles and is constituted by member states who are willing to operate according to rules / norms of behaviour.
    • There has always been a theoretical debate in the discipline, drawing on elements of philosophy, psychology and even economics, on whether or not we actually live in an international society of states or whether it is still merely a system of states.
    • System of states: A system of states is a very complex landscape consisting of individual actors who possess coercive power to varying degrees, have zero-sum ambitions to varying degrees, adhere to global ‘rules’ to the extent that they are convenient or exigent at a moment, while being willing to covertly and overtly bend and even break those rules, when core national interests are involved.
    • In the second interpretation, states are engaged in game-theoretic, rational-utilitarian cooperation, competition and even conflict, depending on the specificities of each situation.
    • In a nutshell, it is a highly complicated theoretical and practical situation wherein simplistic, moralising explanations and narratives about events are typically wrong and often misleading or counterproductive.

    UN and the issue of enforcement

    • Forces like the internet and social media, combined with the cultural dominance of the West, portended a gradual spread of democratic values.
    • The biggest challenge to this kind of perspective usually came from the ‘realist’ camp of International Relations researchers who argue that argue that in the absence of effective enforcement of rules, the notion of such rules was an empty idea.
    • Enforcement was theoretically meant to happen by way of the Security Council.
    • However, this plan was stillborn due to the fundamental unwillingness of the five permanent members to countenance a possibility of global action against themselves and the consequent injection of the notion of a ‘veto’ in the world’s highest security-focused body.
    • This has meant that for the entirety of the UN’s existence, true Security Council intervention in an international crisis has only been possible in the rarest of rare exceptions when all five permanent members happened to agree.

    Threat to rule-based order

    • The foregoing analysis allows us to conclude that far from being an isolated incident that for the first time since the UN Charter was drafted has violated our rules-based order, the Russian intervention in Ukraine is a significant further erosion in the believability of anyone’s claims that such a thing actually exists.
    • All states have shown their willingness to conduct foreign policy at the cost of others.
    • Most states in the last few decades have provided international rules with a lot of ‘lip-service’ while using clandestine methods to achieve their aims.

    Nuclear weapons as a source of stability

    • The notion of ‘mutually assured destruction’ created a tension that seemed to preclude even conventional warfare between two nuclear-armed rivals.
    •  Most interestingly, with the separation of seven decades between Hiroshima / Nagasaki and the present, a gradual shift in the calculus of defence planners seems to have occurred.
    •  From the sense that a mere conventional conflict would be sufficient trigger for a power to exercise a nuclear option, planners seem to have gained a new comfort with nuclear weapons in existence.
    • They no longer seem to believe they will be used short of an existential threat.
    • Russia equally feels confident that merely asserting its core security interests in Ukraine will not draw a nuclear response from NATO.
    • Waning American dominance combined with a retreat of global norms and a lessening nuclear deterrent to armed conflict and the rise of new power centres in Asia are a potent mix of new dynamics in our world.

    Conclusion

    Never since the establishment of our post-war global system has it been under such significant threat. India must take stock and with extreme vigilance approach its entire gamut of cooperative, competitive and adversarial options while navigating this wholly new world out there.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Why NATO isn’t sending troops to Ukraine?

    Amid Russia’s war on Ukraine, the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO) has been rapidly deploying troops to member countries but has clarified that it has no plans of sending them to Ukraine.

    What is NATO?

    • NATO is a military alliance established by the North Atlantic Treaty (also called the Washington Treaty) of April 4, 1949.
    • It sought to create a counterweight to Soviet armies stationed in Central and Eastern Europe after World War II.
    • Its original members were Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
    • NATO has spread a web of partners, namely Egypt, Israel, Sweden, Austria, Switzerland and Finland.

    Why was it founded?

    Ans. Communist sweep in Europe post-WWII and rise of Soviet dominance

    • After World War II in 1945, Western Europe was economically exhausted and militarily weak, and newly powerful communist parties had arisen in France and Italy.
    • By contrast, the Soviet Union had emerged from the war with its armies dominating all the states of central and Eastern Europe.
    • By 1948 communists under Moscow’s sponsorship had consolidated their control of the governments of those countries and suppressed all non-communist political activity.
    • What became known as the Iron Curtain, a term popularized by Winston Churchill, had descended over central and Eastern Europe.

    Ideology of NATO

    • NATO ensures that the security of its European member countries is inseparably linked to that of its North American member countries.
    • It commits the Allies to democracy, individual liberty and the rule of law, as well as to the peaceful resolution of disputes.
    • It also provides a unique forum for dialogue and cooperation across the Atlantic.

    What is Article 5 and why is it needed?

    • Article 5 was a key part of the 1949 North Atlantic Treaty, or Washington Treaty, and was meant to offer a collective defence against a potential invasion of Western Europe.
    • It states: (NATO members) will assist the party or parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
    • However, since then, it has only been invoked once, soon after the 9/11 attack in the United States.

    Why has Article 5 not been invoked this time?

    • The reason is simple: Ukraine is a partner of the Western defence alliance but not a NATO member.
    • As a result, Article 5, or the Collective Defense Pledge, does not apply.
    • While NATO has said it will not be sending troops to Ukraine, it did invoke Article 4, which calls for a consultation of the alliance’s principal decision-making body, the North Atlantic Council.
    • In its history, it has only been activated half a dozen times.
    • But the fact that this time around eight member nations chose to invoke it was enough to demonstrate the seriousness of the situation at a global level.

    What may prompt NATO to invoke Article 5?

    • NATO will invoke Article 5 only if Russia launches a full-blown attack on one of its allies.
    • Some top US officials have warned of the impact of some of Russia’s cyberattacks being felt in NATO countries.
    • When you launch cyberattacks, they don’t recognize geographic boundaries.
    • Some of that cyberattack could actually start shutting down systems in eastern Poland.

    But what is NATO’s problem with Russia?

    • Russia has long been opposed to Ukraine’s growing closeness with European institutions, particularly NATO.
    • The former Soviet republic shares borders with Russia on one side, and the European Union on the other.
    • After Moscow launched its attack, the US and its allies were quick to respond, imposing sanctions on Russia’s central bank and sovereign wealth funds.

     

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Switzerland’s Neutral Foreign Policy

    Switzerland broke its 200-year long neutrality policy to sanction Moscow and its leaders.

    What is the news?

    • Switzerland announced that it would join the European Union (EU) in closing the Swiss airspace to Russian aeroplanes.
    • It also wished for imposing financial sanctions on Russian President Vladimir Putin and other leaders.

    Switzerland’s Policy of Permanent Neutrality

    • The tiny Alpine nation the size of Haryana has had a neutrality policy in place since 1815.
    • Its official website attests to this, noting that “permanent neutrality is a principle of Swiss foreign policy.”
    • Though it serves as the headquarters of several diplomatic missions and as the venue for historic treaties like the Geneva Convention, Switzerland is not a part of the European Union or NATO.
    • Historically, the Swiss had been famed warriors with expansionist ambitions until the 1500s when they lost the Battle of Marignano to the French.
    • The years that followed saw the Swiss shift its foreign policy to that of being an armed impartial state during wartime, a stance which was sorely tested in the decades that followed.

    The World Wars and Switzerland

    • Switzerland shares borders with Germany, France and Italy.
    • During WW II, Switzerland found itself surrounded by Axis forces, with Hitler describing the land-locked territory as “a pimple on the face of Europe”.
    • It used a combination of military deterrence, strategic planning and economic neutrality to hold its own in 1940s Europe.
    • Besides this, the Swiss pursued a policy of armed neutrality, putting into place compulsory military service (which continues till date) to maintain military readiness in event of an invasion.

    Recent deviations

    • Switzerland joined the United Nations as recently as 2002, putting an end to years to debate after 54 per cent of its population voting in favour of the move.
    • The Swiss federal government had said that it had weighed its neutrality and peace policy considerations into account to reach its decision.
    • The Swiss government has initially adopted a traditional and very narrow interpretation of neutrality, which translated to a decision to not issue any sanctions.
    • However, the Swiss parliament and citizens strongly pushed back, arguing that Russia’s massive military aggression cannot be tolerated.
    • This prompted the government to reconsider its position.

     

     

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • What constitutes a War Crime?

    The International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague announced that it would open an investigation into possible war crimes or crimes against humanity in Ukraine.

    What are War Crime?

    • War crimes are defined as serious violations of humanitarian laws during a conflict.
    • There are specific international standards for war crimes, which are not to be confused with crimes against humanity.
    • The definition is established by the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC).
    • It is derived from the 1949 Geneva Conventions and is based on the idea that individuals can be held liable for the actions of a state or its military.
    • There is a long list of acts that can be considered war crimes.
    • The taking of hostages, willful killings, torture or inhuman treatment of prisoners of war, and forcing children to fight are some of the more obvious examples.

    How to identify war crimes?

    To decide whether an individual or a military has committed a war crime, international humanitarian law lays down three principles:

    1. Distinction: This principle says that you have to be constantly trying to distinguish between civilian and belligerent populations and objects.
    2. Proportionality: It prohibits armies from responding to an attack with excessive violence. If a soldier is killed, for example, you cannot bomb an entire city in retaliation.
    3. Precaution: It requires parties to a conflict to avoid or minimize the harm done to the civilian population. For example, attacking a barrack where there are people who have said they no longer participate in the conflict can be a war crime.

    Do war crimes constitute to genocides?

    • The UN Office on Genocide Prevention and the Responsibility to Protect separates war crimes from genocide and crimes against humanity.
    • War crimes are defined as occurring in a domestic conflict or a war between two states.
    • However, genocide and crimes against humanity can happen in peacetime or during the unilateral aggression of a military towards a group of unarmed people.

    Discrepancy in defining war crimes

    • In practice, there is a lot of gray area within that list.
    • The laws of war do not always protect civilians from death. Not every civilian death is necessarily illegal.
    • Raids on a cities or villages, bombing residential buildings or schools, and even the killing of groups of civilians do not necessarily amount to war crimes — not if their military necessity is justified.
    • The same act can become a war crime if it results in unnecessary destruction, suffering and casualties that exceed the military gain from the attack.
    • Also civilian and military populations have become increasingly hard to distinguish

     

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • What is WHO’s Pandemic Treaty?

    Members of the World Health Organisation (WHO) held the first round of negotiations towards the pandemic treaty on February 24, 2022.

    What is the Pandemic Treaty?

    • In December 2021, the World Health Assembly agreed to start a global process to draft the pandemic treaty.
    • The need for an updated set of rules was felt after the COVID-19 pandemic exposed the shortcomings of global health systems.
    • The Health Assembly adopted a decision titled “The World Together” at its second special session since it was founded in 1948.
    • Under the decision, the health organization established an intergovernmental negotiating body (INB) to draft and negotiate the contents of the pandemic treaty in compliance with Article 19 of the WHO Constitution.

    What is it likely to entail?

    • The pandemic treaty is expected to cover aspects like data sharing and genome sequencing of emerging viruses and equitable distribution of vaccines and drugs and related research.
    • Solutions to the COVID-19 pandemic have seen an inequitable distribution of vaccines so far, with poorer countries at the mercy of others to receive preventive medication.

    Why need such treaty?

    • Most countries have followed the “me-first” approach which is not an effective way to deal with a global pandemic.
    • A widely-accepted theory points that the novel coronavirus may have jumped from animals to humans in a wildlife market of China.
    • Many nations want a ban on wildlife markets.

    Issues in negotiations

    • While the EU wants the treaty to be legally binding, the U.S., Brazil and India have expressed reservations about the same.
    • The legal nature of the treaty is yet to be defined.

     What is Article 19 of the WHO Constitution?

    • Article 19 of the WHO Constitution gives the World Health Assembly the authority to adopt conventions or agreements on matters of health.
    • A two-third majority is needed to adopt such conventions or agreements.
    • The WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control was set up under Article 19 and it came into force in 2005.

     

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Escaping the global sanctions net

    Context

    A shift is taking place in the business of global dominance and hegemony, from the model of expressing force through troop presence to financial sanctions. It is led by the US and has become recently visible in the US and EU sanctions on Russia.

    How sanctions works

    • Sanctions are designed by the government and implemented by both profit-making and non-profit private enterprises, domestic and international NGOs (including the United Nations).
    • From rule-bound globalism, there is a move to an understanding of the management of individual economies, bound together by multiple networks of investment and trade.
    • This is a global economy of individual rivalries between countries and corporations, continually shifting alliances, and contingencies overtaking assumed structural certainties.
    • A system of licencing: In Afghanistan, financial manipulations from afar in the form of sanctions may result in subjecting trading activities and investment ventures to the approval of the US Treasury through a system of licencing.
    • This may give the US a say in who trades with whom, but already China has found ways of working with or around US sanctions in several countries, including Iran.
    • Confiscation of foreign exchange reserves: Another way of exerting control from afar is through the confiscation of foreign exchange reserves in American banks.
    • Following the withdrawal of the American troops on August 15, the US froze Afghanistan’s foreign exchange reserves of $7 billion deposited in the New York Federal Bank.

    Issues with sanctions

    • An economic lever to China: Sanctions offer economic lever to China in its dealings with the Taliban, to the Chinese state-owned enterprises and private corporations with an opportunity to invest in Afghanistan’s infrastructure, linking it to the Belt and Road project, and in its rich mineral resources of copper, cobalt, and lithium.
    • Implications for India: China could also use this as an opportunity to unite investments in Afghanistan and Pakistan, isolating India.
    • Evading the sanction:  China and Russia, in concert, may provide a way out of the sanctions regime.
    • Possibility for China in Middle Eurasia: Russian military and political escalation to re-institute control over former Soviet regions, including Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan, and the rapprochement between China and Russia against the West, may open up new possibilities for China in Middle Eurasia.
    • Banning Russia from SWIFT is not effective: Banning Russia from the SWIFT system of international payments is a problem for the global financial system.
    • The Russian economy is more isolated, protected and less reliant on international funding than was the Afghan economy.
    • The impact of any disruption in Russian exports of oil, gas, palladium, wheat and fertiliser at a time when those prices are barely recovering from inflationary pressures caused by Covid-19 disruptions, is likely to offset any leverage the Western sanctions may hope to gain.

    Conclusion

    In the new game, the Western alliance led by the US seems lost in a maze of sanctions, largely ineffective in a global economy, the control of which is eluding its grip.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Doubts over Defence Supplies to India

    With tensions escalating between Russia and the West over the Ukraine crisis, India, which has major defence cooperation with Moscow and Kyiv, faces uncertainty over timely deliveries of the S-400.

    About S-400

    • The S-400 is known as Russia’s most advanced long-range surface-to-air missile defence system, capable of destroying hostile strategic bombers, jets, missiles and drones at a range of 380-km.

    US reservations against S-400 purchase

    • The US has made it clear that the delivery of the five S-400 systems is considered a “significant transaction”.
    • Such deals are considered under its Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) of 2017.
    • It could trigger sanctions against Indian officials and the Government.

    About CAATSA

    • The CAATSA is designed to ensure that no country is able to increase military engagement with Iran, North Korea and Russia without facing deterrent punitive action from the US.
    • The sanctions are unilateral, and not part of any United Nations decision, and therefore no country is bound to accept them.
    • Section 231 says the President shall impose no fewer than five different sanctions on any Government that enters into a significant defence or intelligence deal with Russia.
    • Section 235 lists 12 options, including stopping credit lines from US and international banks such as the IMF, blocking sales of licensed goods and technology, banning banks, manufacturers and suppliers, property transactions and even financial and visa sanctions on specific officials.
    • However, the law also empowers the President to waiver sanctions or delay them if the waiver is in the US’s “vital national security interests”.

    Has the US used CAATSA before for S-400 sales?

    • The US has already placed sanctions on China and Turkey for purchase of the S-400.
    • The sanctions included denial of export licences, ban on foreign exchange transactions, blocking of all property and interests in property within the US jurisdiction and a visa ban.

    Types of sanctions laid

    • In 2020, the US sanctioned its NATO partner Turkey, which it had warned about CAATSA sanctions for years, besides cancelling a deal to sell Ankara F-35 jets.
    • The sanctions on Turkey’s main defence procurement agency, also included a ban on licences and loans, and blocking of credit and visas to related officials.

    Likely impacts after India’s purchase

    • The Biden administration has no firm indication on where it leans on India’s case.
    • However, several senators (US parliamentarians) have called upon the Biden administration to consider a special waiver for India.
    • This is on account of India’s importance as a defence partner, and as a strategic partner on US concerns over China and in the Quad.
    • Other US leaders thinks that giving a waiver to India would be the wrong signal for others seeking to go ahead with similar deals.

    India’s dependence on Russia

    • While Russia has been a traditional military supplier sharing platforms and technologies that others would not, the cooperation has further deepened in recent years.
    • The defence trade between the two countries has crossed $15 billion since 2018.
    • Even today, over 60% of Indian military inventory is of Russian origin, especially with respect to fighter jets, tanks, helicopters and submarines among others, while several deals are in the pipeline.

    Why is the S-400 deal so important to India?

    • Security paradigm: S-400 is very important for India’s national security considerations due to the threats from China, Pakistan and now Afghanistan.
    • Air defence capability: The system will also offset the air defence capability gaps due to the IAF’s dwindling fighter squadron strength.
    • Russian legacy: Integrating the S-400 will be much easier as India has a large number of legacy Russian air defence systems.
    • Strategic autonomy: For both political as well as operational reasons, the deal is at a point of no return.

    Conclusion

    • The deal is a way for the Government to assert its strategic autonomy.
    • India had earlier agreed to stop buying Iranian oil over the threat of sanctions in 2019, a move that caused India both financial and reputational damage.
    • Not giving in to the US’s unilateral sanctions would be one way to restore some of that.

     

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Controversy around the $500 million MCC grant to Nepal

    Nepal’s House of Representatives has ratified 500 million US Dollar grant assistance-Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC) pact along with the “interpretative declaration”.

    What is Millenium Challenge Corporation?

    • The MCC was founded in 2004 as a US foreign aid agency that acts in accordance with governments that have demonstrated a commitment to good governance, economic freedom, and citizen investment.
    • It was envisioned as an organisation that would follow the Paris Declaration on Aid Effectiveness’ key principles.
    • MCC works with countries that have been identified as being eligible for assistance to develop programmes that are based on MCC’s purpose of decreasing poverty via economic growth.
    • MCC’s results framework, which is based on the fourth and fifth principles of the Paris Declaration, Results and Mutual Accountability.
    • It provides a framework for applying the agency’s rigorous methods for projecting, tracking, and evaluating the effects of its programmes.
    • MCC uses this framework to address basic questions about aid effectiveness.

    Investments made by MCC

    • Compact and threshold programmes are the two types of programmes in which MCC invests.
    • Compacts are large, five-year grants implemented by an accountable entity established by each partner nation.
    • Thresholds are smaller funds focusing on policy and institutional transformation in selected countries implemented by MCC.

    The background of the project

    • MCC’s partnership with Nepal began in 2011, when the country requested assistance.
    • MCC first chose Nepal for a smaller threshold grant, and subsequently in December 2014, for a larger compact.
    • Three years later, in September 2017, the MCC-Nepal compact was signed, with the US committing $500 million and Nepal committing $130 million.
    • Nepal is expected to generate an electricity infrastructure with 400kVA transmission lines through the MCC project, which will be used to distribute power both domestically and to India.
    • Furthermore, the MCC’s implementation could boost the Nepalese economy by increasing employment possibilities and increasing per capita income.

    Issues with the project

    • It is estimated that if the agreement is not passed by Parliament, the power producers in the country are likely to lose a staggering Rs. 142 billion every year.
    • As a result, PM Sher Bahadur Deuba is striving to get the MCC passed in Parliament as soon as possible, even if it means splitting the coalition government.
    • In addition, if he fails to get it through Parliament, there is a possible risk of losing his international credibility.

    America vs China: Objections around MCC

    • The MCC agreement has created a political divide in Nepal.
    • The compact has been criticised in Nepal as endangering the country’s sovereignty, integrity, and constitutional autonomy.
    • The claim that the MCC agreement supersedes the national charter and shall prevail over Nepal’s domestic laws.
    • Many have interpreted this to suggest that the compact replaces the constitution, compromising Nepal’s sovereignty.
    • The MCC’s inclusion in the Indo-Pacific Strategy (IPS) is considered problematic for Nepal, as the majority of the country’s political class views the US strategy as anti-China.

    India’s role in the ongoing political crisis in Nepal

    • Few claim that the electricity generated by MCC will be only for export to India and will not be for the local public.
    • As a result, it will not benefit the local economy directly.
    • Nepal’s hydroelectric generation potential is huge, with over 6,000 large and small rivers.
    • However, through a series of barrages and dams, India has control over the majority of Nepal’s major rivers.
    • Nationalists in the Himalayan country have strongly objected to this.
    • In Nepal, where India is still perceived as a meddling big brother, its goal of strengthening India’s military capabilities through this agreement to counter China’s was questioned.

     

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • The significance of EU-India partnership in the Indo-Pacific

    Context

    Europe and its key Indo-Pacific partners are joining forces to deliver a positive agenda for the region at the ministerial Forum to be held in Paris.

    Importance of Indo-Pacific for EU

    • The issues at stake in this crucial region, including security challenges, are of concern to all EU countries.
    • EU unveiled EU Strategy for Cooperation in the Indo-Pacific,  in September 2021.
    •  Europe can offer the countries of the region a sustainable, transparent model for preserving their sovereignty, and an alternative to other models, such as China’s.
    • Addressing the connectivity and infrastructure need: There are immense connectivity and infrastructure needs in the Indo-Pacific.
    • But these needs should not force the countries of the region into unsustainable dependencies.
    • The EU’s Global Gateway initiative unveiled in December 2021 hopes to address this by pooling the resources of the EU’s institutions and its 27 member states to raise 300 billion euros to build sustainable links.
    • India’s role: The EU and India have already concluded a Connectivity Partnership (last May in Porto), which can be a pillar of this wider initiative.
    • The Indo-Pacific is a crucial region for tackling global challenges such as climate change, biodiversity protection and health resilience. 
    • At the Forum, the EU will present the support it can provide to countries of the region, including in terms of green finance, to achieve their ecological transitions in a just manner.
    • The ministers will also discuss concrete steps to strengthen health sovereignty and promote the “One Health” approach to the pandemic response.

    Role of France and India in the region

    • France, itself a nation of the Indo-Pacific, has a long-standing commitment to upholding the law of the sea in the region, particularly through our permanent naval presence and joint exercises, such as our annual “Varuna” drills with India.
    • In the fields of biodiversity protection and plastic pollution, France and India can act together to spur multilateral action, as exemplified by India’s decision to join the France-initiated international coalition to protect 30 per cent of the land and seas by 2030 (High Ambition Coalition for Nature and People).
    • Cooperation between France and India on protected areas and national parks can also be expanded at the Indo-Pacific scale.
    • At the forum, France will propose the creation of an Indo-Pacific health campus, to be established in India, to bring together India’s pharmaceutical prowess and Europe’s technological capacity for the benefit of the region.

    Conclusion

    In a world of growing tensions, the core goal of France’s EU Presidency is to strengthen Europe’s sovereignty and its ability to decide its own fate. This endeavour matches India’s fundamental aspiration for strategic autonomy.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • The anatomy of India’s Ukraine dilemma

    Context

    Late last week, India abstained from a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolution which called for condemning the Russian military action against Ukraine.

    Understanding India’s position on the Ukraine issue

    •  New Delhi has taken a subtle pro-Moscow position on the question of Russian attacks against Ukraine.
    • A geopolitical necessity: India’s Russia tilt should be seen not just as a product of its time-tested friendship with Moscow but also as a geopolitical necessity.
    • There are understandable reasons for India’s (subtle) pro-Russia position: an aggressive Russia is a problem for the U.S. and the West, not for India.
    •  North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) expansion is Russia’s problem, not India’s.
    • China problem: India’s problem is China, and it needs both the U.S./the West and Russia to deal with the “China problem”.
    • Neighbouring China as the rising superpower and Russia as its strategic ally challenging the U.S.-led global order at a time when China has time and again acted on its aggressive intentions vis-à-vis India, and when India is closest to the U.S. than ever before in its history, throws up a unique and unprecedented challenge for India.
    • There is an emerging dualism in contemporary Indian strategic Weltanschauung: the predicament of a continental space that is reeling under immense pressure from China, Pakistan and Taliban-led Afghanistan adding to its strategic claustrophobia; and, the emergence of a maritime sphere which presents an opportunity to break out of the same.

    Why India needs to balance relations with Russia and the US

    • Relations with Russia to manage continental challenges: New Delhi needs Moscow’s assistance to manage its continental difficulties be it through defence supplies, helping it ‘return’ to central Asia, working together at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) or exploring opportunities for collaboration in Afghanistan.
    • Relations with US to manage maritime challenges: When it comes to the vast maritime sphere, the Indo-Pacific to be precise, Russia is not of great consequence to India.
    • That is where its American and western partners come into play. India is simply not in a position to address the China challenge in the maritime space without the active support of American and western navies and, of course, the Quad.
    • This unavoidable dualism in the contemporary Indian strategic landscape necessitates that India balances the two sides.

    Implications of war on Ukraine for India

    • 1] It will embolden China: Russian action in Ukraine dismissing the concerns of the rest of the international community including the U.S. will no doubt embolden China and its territorial ambitions.
    • 2] Sanctions on Russia will impact India’s defence cooperation: The new sanctions regime may have implications for India’s defence cooperation with Moscow.
    • 3] Russia-China axis: The longer the standoff lasts, the closer China and Russia could become, which certainly does not help India.
    • 4] Focus will move away from Indo-Pacific: The more severe the U.S.-Russia rivalry becomes, the less focus there would be on the Indo-Pacific and China, which is where India’s interests lie.

    Foreign policy challenge for India

    • Position of geopolitical vulnerability: India’s responses to the Russian aggression on Ukraine underline the fact that India is operating from a position of geopolitical vulnerability.
    • Going forward, India’s ability to be a “swing state”, “major power” or a “leading power” stands diminished.
    • There will be more middle-of-the-road behaviour from New Delhi rather than resolute positions on global strategic developments.
    • Interests over principles: India’s position also shows the unmistakable indication that when it comes to geopolitics, New Delhi will choose interests over principles.
    • A careful reading of India’s statements and positions taken over the past few days also demonstrates a certain amount of discomfort in having to choose interests over principles.
    • There is perhaps a realisation in New Delhi that a dog-eat-dog world, where rules and good behaviour do not matter, does not help India in the long run either.
    • Mastering the art of balancing extremes: Going forward, if tensions between Russia and the West persist, balancing extremes will be a key feature of Indian diplomacy.
    • Even though New Delhi abstained from voting on it (thereby siding with Moscow), it made its unhappiness about the Russian action clear in the written note.
    • Sticking to the principle of strategic autonomy: New Delhi’s response to the recent crisis, especially its “explanation of vote” at the UNSC indicates a careful recourse to the principle of strategic autonomy: India will make caveated statements and will not be pressured by either party.

    Conclusion

    India’s indirect support to the Russian position is not a product of Russian pressure but the result of a desire to safeguard its own interests.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)