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GS Paper: GS2-18.Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.

  • Outer space

    In opening new pathways for outer space cooperation in the recent US visit, PM Modi has positioned India to engage more productively with a rapidly evolving domain that is seeing more commerce and contestation.

    Outer Space Cooperation: A backgrounder

    • International cooperation is the new normal in space exploration, but it’s not a new concept.
    • One example of this cooperation is the International Space Station (ISS).
    • Another advance in international cooperation in the peaceful exploration of outer space came with the Artemis Accords.
    • Introduced in October 2020, the Artemis Accords establish a set of principles to guide space cooperation among countries participating in NASA’s Artemis program.

    There are five treaties that deal with issues related to outer space

    1. Moon Treaty: Non-appropriation of outer space by any one country, arms control, the freedom of exploration
    2. Liability Convention: Liability for damage caused by space objects
    3. Rescue Agreement: Safety and rescue of spacecraft and astronauts
    4. Outer Space Treaty: Prevention of harmful interference with space activities and the environment
    5. Registration Convention: Notification and registration of space activities, scientific investigation and exploitation of natural resources in outer space and the settlement of disputes

    Why does Outer Spaces matter?

    • Space situational awareness (SSA) involves monitoring the movement of all objects — natural (meteors) and man-made (satellites) — and tracking space weather.
    • Today, space is integral to our lives and disruption of space-based communications and earth observation will have serious consequences.

    India’s strategic interest in Outer Space

    Delhi’s new strategic interest in outer space is based on a recognition of two important trends.

    1. Centrality of emerging technologies in shaping the 21st-century global order
    2. Urgency of writing new rules for the road to peace and stability in outer space

    Why need US for this?

    • Technology cooperation has always been an important part of India-US relations.
    • But it has been a boutique discourse between the relevant agencies of the two governments.
    • The US has traditionally dominated outer space in the commercial domain.
    • As emerging technologies overhaul global economic and security structures, Delhi and Washington now have to widen the interface of technology.

    Why need a comprehensive outer space treaty?

    • Although human forays into space began in the middle of the 20th century, the intensity of that activity as well as its commercial and security implications have dramatically increased in recent decades.
    • Outer space has become a location for lucrative business as well as a site of military competition between states.
    • Until recently, outer space has been the sole preserve of states. But private entities are now major players in space commerce.
    • At the same time, as space becomes a critical factor in shaping the military balance of power on the earth, there is growing competition among states.

    Expanding QUAD in this term

    • Until now, the maritime domain has dominated the strategic cooperation bilaterally between Delhi and Washington as well as within the Quad.
    • The annual Malabar naval exercise, for example, began nearly three decades ago as a bilateral venture in 1992 and became a quadrilateral one in 2020 with the participation of Australia.

    Why does US need India in OST?

    • India, which has developed significant space capabilities over the decades, is a deeply invested party.
    • The US recognises that it can’t unilaterally define the space order anymore and is looking for partners.
    • International cooperation on space situational awareness is similar to the agreements on maritime domain awareness — that facilitate sharing of information on a range of ocean metrics.
    • India has been strengthening its maritime domain awareness through bilateral agreements as well as the Information Fusion Centre for the Indian Ocean Region (IFC-IOR) at Gurugram.
    • India has also taken tentative steps to cope with the unfolding military challenges in outer space.
    • It has also initiated space security dialogue with close partners like the US, Japan, and France.

    Making a first global move

    • When signed, the agreement with the US on SSA will be the first of its kind for India.
    • Washington has agreements with more than two dozen countries on SSA.
    • The US and Indian delegations have also discussed a US initiative called the Artemis Accords — that seek to develop norms for activity in the Moon and other planetary objects.

    Way forward

    • As commercial and military activity in outer space grows, the 20th-century agreements like Outer Space Treaty and the Moon Treaty (1979) need reinforcement and renewal.
    • The growing strategic salience of outer space demands substantive national policy action in India.
    • That can only be mandated by the highest political level. Back in 2015, PM Modi’s speech on the Indian Ocean focused national attention on maritime affairs.
    • India could do with a similar intervention on outer space today.

     

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  • India, Australia to conclude free trade pact by end 2022

    India and Australia have agreed to conclude a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) by the end of 2022.

    What is a Free Trade Agreement (FTA)?

    • A FTA is a pact between two or more nations to reduce barriers to imports and exports among them.
    • Under a free trade policy, goods and services can be bought and sold across international borders with little or no government tariffs, quotas, subsidies, or prohibitions to inhibit their exchange.
    • The concept of free trade is the opposite of trade protectionism or economic isolationism.

    Key benefits offered by FTA

    • Reduction or elimination of tariffs on qualified: For example, a country that normally charges a tariff of 12% of the value of the incoming product will rationalize or eliminate that tariff.
    • Intellectual Property Protection: Protection and enforcement of intellectual property rights in the FTA partner country is upheld.
    • Product Standards: FTA enhances the ability for domestic exporters to participate in the development of product standards in the FTA partner country.
    • Fair treatment for investors: FTA provides treatment as favourably as the FTA partner country gives equal treatment for investments from the partner country.
    • Elimination of monopolies: With FTAs, global monopolies are eliminated due to increased competition.

    How many FTAs does India have?

    • India has signed it’s first Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with Sri Lanka in 1998.
    • Likewise, India had FTAs with: Nepal, Bhutan, Thailand, Singapore, ASEAN, Japan and Malaysia.
    • India has signed Preferential Trade Agreements such as:
    1. Asia Pacific Trade Agreement (APTA) with Bangladesh, China, India, Lao PDR, Republic of Korea, and Sri Lanka
    2. Global System of Trade Preferences (GSTP)
    3. India – MERCOSUR PTA etc. with South American countries

    Back2Basics: Types of Trade Agreements

    (1) Free Trade Agreement – discussed above

    (2) Preferential Trade Agreement

    • In this type of agreement, two or more partners give preferential right of entry to certain products.
    • This is done by reducing duties on an agreed number of tariff lines.
    • Here a positive list is maintained i.e. the list of the products on which the two partners have agreed to provide preferential access.
    • Tariff may even be reduced to zero for some products even in a PTA.
    • India signed a PTA with Afghanistan.

    (3) Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement

    • Partnership agreement or cooperation agreement are more comprehensive than an FTA.
    • CECA/CEPA also looks into the regulatory aspect of trade and encompasses and agreement covering the regulatory issues.
    • CECA has the widest coverage. CEPA covers negotiation on the trade in services and investment, and other areas of economic partnership.
    • It may even consider negotiation on areas such as trade facilitation and customs cooperation, competition, and IPR.
    • India has signed CEPAs with South Korea and Japan.

    (4) Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement

    • CECA generally cover negotiation on trade tariff and Tariff rate quotas (TRQs) rates only.
    • It is not as comprehensive as CEPA.
    • India has signed CECA with Malaysia.

    (5) Framework Agreement

    • Framework agreement primarily defines the scope and provisions of orientation of the potential agreement between the trading partners.
    • It provides for some new area of discussions and set the period for future liberalisation.
    • India has previously signed framework agreements with the ASEAN, Japan etc.

    (6) Early Harvest Scheme

    • An Early Harvest Scheme (EHS) is a precursor to an FTA/CECA/CEPA between two trading partners. For example, early harvest scheme of RCEP has been rolled out.
    • At this stage, the negotiating countries identify certain products for tariff liberalization pending the conclusion of actual FTA negotiations.
    • An Early Harvest Scheme is thus a step towards enhanced engagement and confidence building.

     

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  • Four geopolitical developments and a window of opportunity for India

    A number of important developments has taken place over the past several weeks. They may appear disconnected but in fact add up to a significant shift in regional and global geopolitics.

    Four major recent developments

    1. Withdrawal of US and NATO forces from Afghanistan: The complete takeover of the country by the Taliban
    2. Significant domestic political changes in China: The ideological and regulatory assault against its dynamic private high-tech companies and now its real estate companies
    3. Announcement of the Australia-UK and US (AUKUS): It represents a major departure in US strategy by its commitment to enable Australia to join a handful of countries with nuclear submarines
    4. Convening of the Quad physical summit in Washington: A major step towards its formalisation as an influential grouping in the Indo-Pacific going beyond security

    Risks and opportunity for India

    These four developments, taken together, present India with both risks but also with opportunities.  In affirmation, one can conclude that the opportunities outweigh the risks.

    [A] Risks in Afghanistan

    • The Afghan situation is a setback for India in the short run.
    • The political capital and economic presence it had built up in the country over the past two decades has been substantially eroded.
    • The Taliban government is dominated by more hard-line and pro-Pakistani elements.
    • They will help deliver on the Pakistani agenda of preventing a revival of Indian diplomatic presence and developmental activity in Afghanistan.

    Future of Taliban

    • In the longer run, it seems unlikely that the Taliban will give up its obscurantist and extremist agenda.
    • This may lead to domestic inter-ethnic and sectarian conflict.
    • The unwillingness of the Taliban to cut its links with various jihadi groups, including those targeting Afghanistan’s neighbours, may revive regional and international fears over cross-border terrorism.

    How should India defer the Taliban?

    • India’s response should be to bide its time, strengthen its defences against an uptick in cross-border terrorism.
    • India can keep its faith with the ordinary people of Afghanistan, provide shelter to those who have sought refuge.
    • It can join in any international effort to deliver humanitarian assistance to the people of Afghanistan.

    [B] Domestic political change in China

    • This is taking an ideological and populist direction.
    • The country’s vibrant private sector is being reined in while the State-Owned Enterprises (SOE) are back in a central role.
    • After the tech sector, it is the large real estate sector that is facing regulatory assault.

    Concerns for investors

    • This is leading to deepening concern among foreign investors, including those who have long been champions of long-term engagement with China.

    Opportunities for India

    • It is not coincidental that while in NYC, our PM had meetings with the CEOs of Blackstone and Qualcomm, both of which are heavily invested in China but are reconsidering their exposure there.
    • If India plays its cards well, this time round there could be significant capital and technology flows from the US, Japan and Europe diverted towards India because it offers scale comparable to China.
    • Since India has benign partnerships with the US, Japan and Europe, there are no political constraints on such flows.

    [C] AUKUS and QUAD

    • The AUKUS and progress made by the Quad serve to raise the level of deterrence against China.
    • It is useful since it has now become the core of the US’s Indo-Pacific strategy. China will be more focused on its activities.
    • The Quad now represents, from the Chinese perspective, a second order threat.

    Underlying opportunities

    • This offensive against China suits us since we are not ready to embrace a full-fledged military alliance which will constrain our room for manoeuvre.

    Why should India gauge these opportunities?

    • China has given up the expectation that it could unify Taiwan through peaceful and political means, including through closer economic integration.
    • It has lost its credibility after the recent crackdown on civil liberties in Hong Kong.
    • China may advance its forcible takeover of Taiwan before the AUKUS gets consolidated.
    • The nuclear submarines for Australia may not be built and deployed for several years.
    • We may, therefore, be entering a period of enhanced uncertainty and danger in the Indo-Pacific.

    India’s area for introspection

    • The constraints are policy unpredictability, regulatory rigidities and bureaucratic red tape in India.
    • Some of these issues are being addressed, such as dropping of retrospective taxation.
    • But there is still a long way to go.

    Way forward

    All these developments has heightened risk perception among international business and industry who have hitherto seen China as a huge commercial opportunity.

    • For India, some bold initiatives are required to take advantage of the window of opportunity that has opened.
    • It is a narrow window with a very short shelf life.
    • If grasped with both hands, then it could deliver double-digit growth for India for the next two or three decades.
    • This will shrink the asymmetry of power with China and expand India’s diplomatic options.

    Conclusion

    • India should not be caught off guard. Failure of deterrence in the Indo-Pacific will have consequences beyond the region and change the geopolitical context for India.
    • For now, let us focus on what we can do to advance India’s economic prospects, for which the times are unexpectedly more propitious.

     

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  • Illicit Proliferation of networks of N-weapons

    India has underlined the need for the international community to pay closer attention to the “illicit proliferation” of networks of nuclear weapons, their delivery systems, components and relevant technologies.

    Key takeaways from India’s remarks

    • India’s remarks appeared to be a veiled reference to China and its “all-weather ally” Pakistan.
    • China’s nuclear cooperation with Pakistan was in contravention with the Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG).
    • Several concerns have been raised over the export of nuclear materials to Islamabad by Beijing and that they are in violation of international norms and established procedures.

    Do you know?

    India has played a leading role in global efforts towards nuclear disarmament and was the first country to call for a ban on nuclear testing in 1954 and a non-discriminatory treaty on the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons, as distinct from non-dissemination, in 1965. Its no-first-use doctrine is a worldwide appreciated strategy.

    Issues in Nuclear Disarmament

    • Notion of Nuclear ‘Haves’ and ‘Have-Nots’: The proponents of disarmaments are themselves nuclear armed countries thus creating a nuclear monopoly.
    • Concept of Peaceful Nuclear Explosion (PNE): conducted for non-military purposes such as mining.

    India’s commitment for de-nuclearization

    India has always batted for a universal commitment and an agreed global and non-discriminatory multilateral framework.

    • It has outlined a working paper on Nuclear Disarmament submitted to the UN General Assembly in 2006.
    • India participated in the Nuclear Security Summit process and has regularly participated in the International Conferences on Nuclear Security organised by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
    • India is also a member of the Nuclear Security Contact Group (but has signed off the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)).
    • India has expressed its readiness to support the commencement of negotiations on a Fissile Material Cut-off Treaty (FMCT).
    • India couldn’t join the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) due to several concerns raised by India.
    • India has piloted an annual UNGA Resolution on “Measures to Prevent Terrorists from Acquiring Weapons of Mass Destruction” since 2002, which is adopted by consensus.

    Why didn’t India join NPT?

    • India is one of the only five countries that either did not sign the NPT or signed but withdrew, thus becoming part of a list that includes Pakistan, Israel, North Korea, and South Sudan.
    • India always considered the NPT as discriminatory and had refused to sign it.
    • India maintains that they are selectively applicable to the non-nuclear powers and legitimised the monopoly of the five nuclear weapons powers.

    Way forward

    • India has actively supported and contributed to the strengthening of the global nuclear security architecture.
    • There is a need for the international community to pay closer attention to the illicit proliferation of networks of nuclear weapons, their delivery systems, components and relevant technologies.
    • India hopes that the international community will continue to work towards realising our collective aspiration for a nuclear weapon-free world.

     

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    Back2Basics:

    Nuclear Security Contact Group

    • The NSCG was established in 2016.
    • The NSCG or “Contact Group” has been established with the aim of facilitating cooperation and sustaining engagement on nuclear security after the conclusion of the Nuclear Security Summit process.
    • The Contact Group is tasked with:
    1. Convening annually on the margins of the General Conference of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and, as may be useful, in connection with other related meetings
    2. Discussing a broad range of nuclear security-related issues, including identifying emerging trends that may require more focused attention

    Nuclear Suppliers Group

    • NSG is a group of nuclear supplier countries that seeks to contribute to the non-proliferation of nuclear weapons through the implementation of guidelines for nuclear exports and nuclear-related exports.
    • The NSG was set up as a response to India’s nuclear tests conducted in 1974.
    • The aim of the NSG is to ensure that nuclear trade for peaceful purposes does not contribute to the proliferation of nuclear weapons.

    Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty

    • CTBT was negotiated at the Conference on Disarmament in Geneva and adopted by the United Nations General Assembly in 1996.
    • The Treaty intends to ban all nuclear explosions – everywhere, by everyone.
    • It was opened for signature in 1996 and since then 182 countries have signed the Treaty, most recently Ghana has ratified the treaty in 2011.

    Fissile material cut-off treaty

    • FMCT is a proposed international agreement that would prohibit the production of the two main components of nuclear weapons: highly-enriched uranium (HEU) and plutonium.
    • Discussions on this subject have taken place at the UN Conference on Disarmament (CD), a body of 65 member nations established as the sole multilateral negotiating forum on disarmament.
    • The CD operates by consensus and is often stagnant, impeding progress on an FMCT.
    • Those nations that joined the nuclear NPT as non-weapon states are already prohibited from producing or acquiring fissile material for weapons.
    • An FMCT would provide new restrictions for the five recognized nuclear weapon states (NWS—United States, Russia, United Kingdom, France, and China), and for the four nations that are not NPT members (Israel, India, Pakistan, and North Korea).

  • Why Brazil always speaks first at the UN General Assembly

    Every year since the 10th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in 1995, Brazil has been the first to address the delegation, followed by the United States.

    About UNGA

    • The UNGA is one of the six principal organs of the United Nations (UN), serving as the main deliberative, policymaking, and representative organ of the UN.
    • Its powers, composition, functions, and procedures are set out in Chapter IV of the United Nations Charter.
    • It also establishes numerous subsidiary organs to advance or assist in its broad mandate.
    • The UNGA is the only UN organ wherein all member states have equal representation.

    Why does Brazil always get to speak first?

    • Brazil has been the first speaker at the UNGA annual general debate for over six decades now.
    • While some assume that the order is determined alphabetically, this is not the case.
    • This tradition dates back to the early years of the United Nations, following its formation soon after the end of World War II.
    • In those days, most countries were reluctant to be the first to address the chamber.
    • Brazil, at the time, was the only country that volunteered to speak first.

    So, why does the US go next?

    • In the list of speakers, the United States always goes second after Brazil as it is the host nation.
    • US President Joe Biden addressed the chamber on Tuesday, detailing his vision for a new era of diplomacy in his first-ever UNGA speech.

    How is the order of the remaining speakers determined?

    • After the US and Brazil, the order of speakers depends on a number of factors.
    • Generally the order is determined by the rank of the representative — heads of state, heads of government, crown princes, and foreign ministers would be amongst the initial speakers, followed by deputies and ambassadors.
    • Other criteria like geographic balance also play a role in determining the order.

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  • Why the SAARC meeting was cancelled

    A meeting of foreign ministers from the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries, which was set to be held in New York has been cancelled.

    About SAARC

    • The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) is the regional intergovernmental organization and geopolitical union of states in South Asia.
    • Its member states are Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
    • The SAARC comprises 3% of the world’s area, 21% of the world’s population and 4.21% (US$3.67 trillion) of the global economy, as of 2019.
    • The SAARC was founded in Dhaka on 8 December 1985. Its secretariat is based in Kathmandu, Nepal.
    • The organization promotes development of economic and regional integration. It launched the South Asian Free Trade Area in 2006.
    • The SAARC maintains permanent diplomatic relations at the United Nations as an observer and has developed links with multilateral entities, including the European Union.

    Formation of SAARC

    • After the USSR invaded Afghanistan in 1979, the security situation in South Asia rapidly deteriorated. In response, the foreign ministers of the initial seven members met in Colombo in 1981.
    • At the meeting, Bangladesh proposed forming a regional association that would meet to discuss matters such as security and trade.
    • While most of the countries present were in favour of the proposal, India and Pakistan were sceptical.
    • Eventually, both countries relented and in 1983 in Dhaka, joined the other five nations in signing the Declaration.

    What has SAARC done so far

    • Despite its lofty ambitions, SAARC has not become a regional association in the mould of the European Union or the African Union.
    • Its member states are plagued by internal divisions, most notably the conflict between India and Pakistan.
    • This in turn has hampered its ability to form comprehensive trade agreements or to meaningfully collaborate on areas such as security, energy and infrastructure.
    • The 18th and last SAARC summit was held in 2014 with Pakistan scheduled to host the 19th summit in 2016.
    • Many nations pulled out of the summit, citing fears of regional insecurity caused by Pakistan and a lack of a conducive environment for the talks.

    Limited success to count

    • Despite these setbacks, SAARC has achieved a modicum of success.
    • It has provided a platform for representatives from member countries to meet and discuss important issues, something that may have been challenging through bilateral discussions.
    • India and Pakistan for example would struggle to publicly justify a meeting when tensions between the two are particularly high, but representatives from both countries could come together under the banner of SAARC.
    • The bloc has also made some headway in signing agreements related to climate change, food security and combatting the Covid-19 crisis.
    • It has the potential to do far more but that is contingent upon cooperation on key issues between member states.

    Why was the recent meet cancelled?

    Ans. Pakistan’s insistence to include the Taliban

    • The member states are unable to agree upon the participation of Afghanistan, with Pakistan and India in particular at loggerheads over the issue.
    • After Pakistan objected to the participation of any official from the previous Ghani administration, SAARC members reportedly agreed to keep an “empty chair” as a symbolic representation of Afghanistan.
    • However, Islamabad later insisted that the Taliban be allowed to send its representative to the summit, a notion that all of the other member states rejected.
    • After no consensus could be formed, Nepal, the ‘host’ of the summit, officially cancelled the meeting.

    Why did countries object?

    Ans. Taliban is not a legitimate govt

    • The Taliban has not been recognised as the official government of Afghanistan by any SAARC countries barring Pakistan.
    • Several top Taliban leaders are blacklisted by the US and/or designated as international terrorists.
    • Senior leaders who are not blacklisted are known for supporting terrorist activities or affiliating with terrorist organisations.
    • Allowing Taliban to represent Afghanistan in SAARC would legitimise the group and serve as a formal recognition of their right to govern.
    • Apart from Pakistan, which has close ties to the Taliban, particularly its violent subgroup, the Haqqani Network, none of the other SAARC members recognise the Taliban.

    Why nations should not recognize the Taliban?

    • PM Modi has referred to the Taliban as a non-inclusive government, warning other nations to think before accepting the regime in Afghanistan.
    • SAARC members are deeply aware of the threat of spillover terrorism from Afghanistan under the Taliban regime, with Bangladesh in particular, concerned with the effect it may have on extremism.
    • Developments in Afghanistan could lead to uncontrolled flow of drugs, illegal weapons and human trafficking.

    Conclusion

    • With Pakistan headfast in its support for the Taliban and the rest of SAARC weary to acknowledge the group, any future summit is unlikely until the issue has been resolved.

  • The big deal behind the ruckus over AUKUS

    The announcement of the new Australia-U.K.-U.S. (AUKUS) trilateral security pact has naturally generated animated debate in strategic circles, before the QUAD summit.

    What is the AUKUS?

    • The first major initiative of AUKUS would be to deliver a nuclear-powered submarine fleet for Australia.
    • The nuclear-powered submarines will give Australia naval heft in the Pacific, where China has been particularly aggressive.
    • While the US and Britain have had the capability for decades, Australia has never had an n-sub.

    Motive: To counter China

    • China has nuclear-powered submarines, as well as submarines that can launch nuclear missiles.
    • The three signatories to the AUKUS deal have made it clear though, that their aim is not to arm the new subs with nuclear weapons.
    • China has been one of Australia’s biggest trading partners, but the relationship has soured over the last few years.
    • It was in consideration of Chinese sensibilities that Australia had pulled out of the Malabar Naval Exercise with the US, India, and Japan after participating in the 2007 edition (of which Singapore too, was part).
    • Australia came back to Malabar in 2020, which marked the first time in 13 years that the navies of the four Quad nations war-gamed together.

    Australia at the Centrestage

    • This is primarily because a nuclear-powered submarine gives a navy the capability to reach far out into the ocean and launch attacks.
    • A nuclear-powered submarine offers long distances dives, at a higher speed, without being detected gives a nation the ability to protect its interests far from its shores.
    • In the context of the AUKUS agreement, nuclear-powered submarines will give the Royal Australian Navy the capability to go into the South China Sea.
    • It conclusively puts to rest a long-standing domestic debate on whether it was time for Australia to assess China through the strategic lens, overcoming the purely mercantile considerations that tended to dominate its China policy.

    What makes nuclear submarines so important?

    • A nuclear-powered submarine is classified as an “SSN” under the US Navy hull classification system, wherein ‘SS’ is the symbol for submarine, and ‘N’ stands for nuclear.
    • A nuclear-powered submarine that can launch ballistic missiles is called “SSBN”.
    • Conventional diesel-engine submarines have batteries that keep and propel — though not very fast — the vessel underwater. The life of these batteries can vary from a few hours to a few days.
    • The newer Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) submarines have additional fuel cells that allow them to stay underwater for longer and move faster than the conventional vessels.
    • However, the fuel cells are used only at strategic times, when the endurance to remain submerged is required.
    • Both conventional and AIP subs need to come to the surface to recharge their batteries using the diesel engine.
    • The diesel engine also propels the vessel on the surface. However, the fuel cells of AIP can only be charged at on-land stations, not while at sea.

    Why is France unhappy about Australia getting these submarines?

    • The deal has complicated the relations between France and Australia, and also France and the US.
    • France is upset as it has been kept out of the loop. But, with the core objective of pushing back against China’s aggression, all five countries — US, UK, Australia, France and India — are on the same track.
    • The deal between France and Australia had been marked by delays and other issues.
    • The first submarine was expected to be operational around 2034.

    Does India have nuclear-powered submarines?

    • Yes, India is among the six nations that have SSNs. The other five are the US, the UK, Russia, France and China.
    • India has had the capacity since it got the Soviet-built K-43 Charlie-class SSN in 1987.
    • Commissioned with the Red Fleet of the USSR in 1967, it was leased to the Indian Navy, and was rechristened INS Chakra. The submarine was decommissioned in 1991.

    Indo-Pacific is the core issue

    • France, which like the UK has historically been an Indo-Pacific power with territories and bases across the region.
    • It has participated in a multi-nation naval exercise in the Bay of Bengal with the four Quad nations.
    • There is no gainsaying the fact that rapid accretion in China’s economic and military capacities, but more particularly its belligerence, has led to a tectonic shift in regional security paradigms.
    • Several countries have been obliged to review their defence preparedness in response to China’s rising military power and its adverse impact on regional stability.

    A chance for the UK

    • The AUKUS pact is also an emphatic assertion of the relevance of the U.S.-Australia Security Treaty (ANZUS).
    • New Zealand, the outlier, walked away in 1984 from the treaty that ironically still bears its initials.
    • Its “nuclear-free” stance ran counter to the U.S. Navy’s non-disclosure policy in regard to nuclear weapons aboard visiting vessels.
    • Close ties notwithstanding, Australia’s future fleet of nuclear submarines will not be permitted access to New Zealand’s ports or waters, as averred by PM Jacinda Ardern.
    • AUKUS provides a fresh opportunity to the United Kingdom to reinsert itself more directly into the Indo-Pacific.
    • It is already a member of the Five Eyes (FVEY), an intelligence-sharing alliance built on Anglo-Saxon solidarity (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the U.K., and the U.S.).

    AUKUS is not a substitute for the Quad

    • It does not erode the Quad’s significance as a platform for consultations and coordination on broader themes of maritime security, free and open trade, health care, critical technologies, supply chains and capacity-building.
    • The AUKUS submarine deal, on the other hand, is an undiluted example of strategic defence collaboration, and a game-changer at that.

    Chinese reception of AUKUS

    • China, expectedly, has strongly criticised AUKUS and the submarine deal as promoting instability and stoking an arms race.

    The exposed double standards

    • China has the world’s fastest-growing fleet of sub-surface combatants.
    • This includes the Type 093 Shang-class nuclear-powered attack submarine (SSN) and the Type 094 nuclear-powered Jin-class ballistic missile submarine (SSBN).
    • Its nuclear submarines are on the prowl in the Indo-Pacific.
    • Yet, China denies Australia and others the sovereign right to decide on their defence requirements.

    What’s in the box of AUKUS?

    Ans. Greater role for Australia

    • Australia’s proposed nuclear submarines will give quite a punch in terms of a stand-off capability.
    • The growing focus on anti-submarine warfare across a more expansive region is clearly altering calculations.
    • Australia’s nuclear submarines would help create a new balance of power in the Indo-Pacific, especially in tandem with the U.S. and the U.K.
    • It will now have a more meaningful naval deterrence of its own to protect its sovereign interests.
    • It is set to play a more robust role in ensuring peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific.

    Way forward

    • The setback ‘down under’ may spur France to focus afresh on partners such as India.
    • India must strike a balance between continuing imports and implementing the all-important Atmanirbhar Bharat in defence manufacturing.
    • France should take AUKUS as a business deal.
    • Its momentary reaction at the cancellation of the contract by Australia should soon subside.
    • As a major Indo-Pacific power, France is an important part of the regional security calculus.

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  • What is Havana Syndrome?

    A US intelligence officer traveling with CIA director William Burns has reported symptoms of Havana Syndrome.

    What is Havana Syndrome?

    • Havana Syndrome refers to a set of mental health symptoms that are said to be experienced by US intelligence and embassy officials in various countries.
    • It typically involves symptoms such as hearing certain sounds without any outside noise being present, nausea, vertigo and headaches, memory loss and issues with balance.
    • As the name suggests, it traces its roots to Cuba.
    • In late 2016, US officials in embassy began experiencing sudden bursts of pressure in their brain followed by persistent headaches, feeling of disorientation and insomnia.

    How severe is it?

    • In 2018, at least three CIA officers working under diplomatic cover in Cuba had reported troubling sensations that seemed to leave serious injuries.
    • Some officers are being compulsorily retired for their inability to coherently discharge his duty and another needing a hearing aid.

    Has Havana Syndrome been reported anywhere else?

    • Since the Cuban incident, American intelligence and foreign affairs officials posted in various countries have reported symptoms of the syndrome.
    • In early 2018, similar accusations began to be made by US diplomats in China.
    • The US media has reported around 130 such attacks across the world including at Moscow in Russia, Poland, Georgia, Taiwan, Colombia, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Austria, among others.

    What are the causes of Havana Syndrome?

    • No one is entirely sure. But it is speculated to be a “sonic attack”.
    • Medical examination of the victims began to suggest that the victims may have been subjected to high-powered microwaves that either damaged or interfered with the nervous system.
    • It was said to have built a pressure inside the brain that generated the feeling of a sound being heard.
    • Greater exposure to high-powered microwaves is said not only to interfere with the body’s sense of balance but also impact memory and cause permanent brain damage.
    • It is suspected that beams of high-powered microwaves are sent through a special gadget that Americans have begun calling “microwave weapon”.

    Who is doing this in India?

    • Sources in the Indian security establishment say they are not aware of any such weapon being in the possession of an Indian agency.
    • Even if there was one, it is unlikely the government would admit to having acquired such counter-espionage technology given the sensitive nature of intelligence work.

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  • Is there a role for India in divided AUKUS?

    Context

    France recalled its ambassadors to the US and Australia in a diplomatic slap intended to convey its anger over a deal forged in secrecy that saw Paris lose a multi billion dollar submarine contract.

    Depth and diversity of India’s relations

    • That Delhi today is a part of a difficult conversation between the US, UK, France, Europe, and Australia points to the growing depth and diversity of India’s relations with different parts of the West.
    • Popular and academic discourse on India’s foreign policy has been obsessed with the concept of “non-alignment” —was about keeping distance from the West as a whole.
    • India’s contemporary diplomacy, in contrast, takes a nuanced view of internal dynamics in the West, and recognises the political agency of individual states, and develops wide-ranging relationships with the Western nations.

    Relations with France

    • Paris has always taken an independent view of the world, while remaining within the broad framework of the American alliance.
    •  In the 1990s, Paris championed the construction of a multipolar world to constrain American “hyperpower” but India did not join it.
    • The last few years, however, have seen an intensification of India’s strategic engagement with France.
    • For example, India has overcome the earlier reluctance to work with France on Indian Ocean security.

    Engagement as collective and sub-region

    • The government has also stepped up on the political engagement with Europe as a collective as well as its sub-regions — from Baltics to the Balkans and from Iberia to Mitteleuropa.
    •  As India discovers that every European nation, from tiny Luxembourg to a rising Poland, has something to offer, Europe has become a thriving hub of India’s international relations.

    Relations with the UK

    • Due to the bitter colonial legacy, relations between India and UK have always been underdeveloped.
    • In the last couple of years, India has made a determined effort to build a new partnership with Britain, which is the fifth-largest economy in the world, a leading financial hub, a technological powerhouse, and punches well above its weight in global affairs.

    Relations with “Anglosphere”

    • India’s neglect of London also meant Delhi had no time for the “Anglosphere” that binds the UK to Australia, Canada, and New Zealand.
    • Many had presumed that the Anglosphere was irrelevant — AUKUS, however, is a reminder that Anglo-Saxon political bonds endure.
    • Instead of treating the Anglosphere with scepticism, India has begun to vigorously engage with the “settler colonies” that have so much to offer India — from natural resources to higher education and critical technologies.
    • The UK and its settler colonies have long been the preferred destination for the Indian diaspora (besides the US).
    • Leveraging diaspora politics: While the diaspora tends to connect the domestic politics of the Anglosphere with that of India, Delhi is figuring out that the diaspora politics can be played both ways.

    Relations with Japan and Australia

    • The transformation of India’s relations with Australia has occurred despite entrenched scepticism in the foreign policy bureaucracy.
    • Finally, Japan has been a part of the West in the post-War era and Delhi’s relations with Tokyo have never been as rounded as they are today. They are also fellow members of the Quad.

    Way forward for India

    • This wide-ranging engagement with the West should help Delhi convey two important messages to its partners this week.
    • Not undermining the larger goal: India needs to remind France, Australia, the UK and US of the shared interests in securing the Indo-Pacific and the dangers of letting the current quarrel undermine that larger goal.
    • Effective deterrence in Indo-Pacific: The other is to highlight the region’s vast requirements for effective deterrence in the Indo-Pacific;
    • And that there is enough room for the US, UK, France, and Europe to collaborate with Indo-Pacific partners in overlapping coalitions to develop high technology and defence-industrial cooperation in all the areas highlighted by AUKUS — effective underwater capabilities to AI, quantum computing and cyber warfare.
    • Deeper cooperation: India’s interests lie in deeper strategic cooperation with France and Europe as well as the Quad and the Anglosphere.

    Conclusion

    India’s diverse relationships in the West must be deployed in full measure to prevent a split in the Indo-Pacific coalition.

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  • Hardly the India-China century

    Context

    Deng Xiaoping had told then-Indian Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi in 1988 that the 21st century would be “India and China’s century”, the current Chinese leadership has no patience for such pablum. They believe — indeed believe they know — that it is destined to be China’s century alone.

    The policy of side-stepping contentious issues and encouraging bilateral economic relations

    • There have always been political tensions, both over each country’s territorial claims over land controlled by the other, and China’s alliance with Pakistan, and India’s hospitality to the Dalai Lama.
    • But neither country had allowed these tensions to overwhelm them:
    • China had declared that the border dispute could be left to “future generations” to resolve.
    • India had endorsed the “One China” policy, refusing to support Tibetan secessionism while limiting official reverence for the Dalai Lama to his status as a spiritual leader.
    • India actions and statements have usually been designed not to provoke, but to relegate the border problem to the back burner while enabling trade relations with China (now worth close to $100 billion) to flourish.
    • India made it clear that it was unwilling to join in any United States-led “containment” of China.
    • From negligible levels till 1991, trade with China had grown to become one of India’s largest trading relationships. 
    • India engages with China diplomatically in the BRICS  as well as conducting annual summits of RIC (Russia-India-China).
    • India is an enthusiastic partner in the Chinese-led Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank and the New Development Bank (NDB).
    • However, it has become increasingly apparent that the policy of side-stepping contentious issues and encouraging bilateral economic relations has played into Chinese hands.

    Chinese strategy in Galwan

    • In the Galwan clash, the Chinese troops seem to have been engaged in a tactical move to advance their positions along areas of the LAC that it covets, in order to threaten Indian positions and interdict patrols.
    • They are threatening India’s construction of roads, bridges and similar infrastructure on undisputed Indian territory, a belated effort to mirror similar Chinese efforts near the LAC in Tibet.
    • They have established a fixed presence in these areas well beyond China’s own ‘Claim Line’.
    • The objective seems to be to extend Chinese troop presence to the intersection of the Galwan river and the Shyok river, which would make the Galwan Valley off bounds to India.
    • The Chinese have constructed permanent structures in the area of their intrusion and issued statements claiming that sovereignty over the Galwan valley has “always belonged” to China.
    • Consolidation of LOC: China’s strategy seems to be to consolidate the LAC where it wants it, so that an eventual border settlement — that takes these new realities into account — will be in its favour.
    • Implications for India:  In the meantime, border incidents keep the Indians off-balance and demonstrate to the world that India is not capable of challenging China, let alone offering security to other nations.

    India’s options

    • India has reinforced its military assets on the LAC to prevent deeper incursions for now.
    • And hopes to press the Chinese to restore the status quo ante through either diplomatic or military means.
    • Chinese and Indian officials are currently engaged in diplomatic and military-to-military dialogue to ease tensions, but de-escalation has been stalled for months.
    • Economic options: India has responded with largely symbolic acts of economic retaliation.
    • India has also reimposed tighter limits on Chinese investment in projects such as railways, motorways, public-sector construction projects, and telecoms.

    Limits to India’s economic retaliation

    • India is far too dependent on China for vital imports — such as pharmaceuticals, and even the active ingredients to make them, automotive parts and microchips that many fear it will harm India if it acted too strongly against China.
    • Imports from China have become indispensable for India’s exports to the rest of the world.
    • Various manufacturing inputs, industrial equipment and components, and even some technological know-how come from China; eliminating them could have a seriously negative effect on India’s economic growth.
    • And there are limits to the effectiveness of any Indian retaliation: trade with China may seem substantial from an Indian perspective, but it only represents 3% of China’s exports.
    • Drastically reducing it would not be enough to deter Beijing or cause it to change its behaviour.

    Consider the question “State of India-China relationship hardly indicate the 21st Century being the “India and China’s century”. In light of this, examine the factors responsible for this and suggest the way forward for India.”

    Conclusion

    This range of considerations seems to leave only two strategic options. Playing second fiddle to an assertive China or aligning itself with a broader international coalition against Chinese ambitions. Since the first is indigestible for any democracy, is China de facto pushing India into doing something it has always resisted — allying with the West?

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