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GS Paper: GS2-18.Bilateral, regional and global groupings and agreements involving India and/or affecting India’s interests.

  • G-7 agenda this year and what is in it for India

    At the invitation of UK PM, PM Modi will participate in the Outreach Sessions of the G7 Summit this week.

    Note the members of G7 and G20. UPSC may puzzle you asking which G20 nation isn’t a member of G7.

    The Group of 7

    • The G-7 or ‘Group of Seven’ includes Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
    • It is an intergovernmental organization that was formed in 1975 by the top economies of the time as an informal forum to discuss pressing world issues.
    • Initially, it was formed as an effort by the US and its allies to discuss economic issues.
    • The G-7 forum now discusses several challenges such as oil prices and many pressing issues such as financial crises, terrorism, arms control, and drug trafficking.
    • It does not have a formal constitution or a fixed headquarters. The decisions taken by leaders during annual summits are non-binding.
    • Canada joined the group in 1976, and the European Union began attending in 1977.

    Evolution of the G-7

    • When it started in 1975—with six members, Canada joining a year later—it represented about 70% of the world economy.
    • And it was a cosy club for tackling issues such as the response to oil shocks.
    • Now it accounts for about 40% of global gdp.
    • Since the global financial crisis of 2007-09 it has sometimes been overshadowed by the broader g20.
    • The G-7 became the G-8 in 1997 when Russia was invited to join.
    • In 2014, Russia was debarred after it took over Crimea.

    Agenda of G-7 this year

    • The UK currently holds the presidency of the G7 and has invited India, along with Australia, Republic of Korea and South Africa, as guest countries for the Summit.
    • The meetings will be held in hybrid mode.
    • The theme for the summit is ‘Build Back Better’ and the UK has outlined four priority areas for its presidency:
    1. leading the global recovery from coronavirus while strengthening resilience against future pandemics;
    2. promoting future prosperity by championing free and fair trade;
    3. tackling climate change and preserving the planet’s biodiversity; and
    4. championing shared values and open societies.

    Is India attending it for the first time?

    • Since 2014, this is the second time PM Modi will be participating in a G7 meeting.
    • India had been invited by the G7 French Presidency in 2019 to the Biarritz Summit as a “Goodwill Partner” and the PM participated in the Sessions on ‘Climate, Biodiversity and Oceans’ and ‘Digital Transformation’.
    • During Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s UPA rule, India attended the G8 five times.
    • Russia was indefinitely suspended in March 2014 after the annexation of Crimea, reducing the count of the G8.

    What to watch out for at this G-7 summit?

    • This will be President Biden’s first visit to Europe, where he will signal his key message “America is back”.
    • He has flown down to the UK, where he will meet British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Queen Elizabeth II and other allies at the G7 summit.
    • He’ll continue on to a NATO conclave in Brussels on June 14, before his conversation with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Geneva two days later.
    • This sequencing of events has been done to coordinate Washington’s moves of consultations with allies before meeting the Russian President.
    • This ties in well with the US President’s initial foray into multilateralism — he held the first summit of leaders of “the Quad” — Australia, India, Japan and the US.
    • This was aimed at increasing vaccine production and aligning their positions toward Beijing.

    Why is this meeting important?

    • The US-Russia relations are going through a rough patch — some analysts even refer to it as possibly their nadir since the end of the Cold War.
    • Interestingly, the venue of the Biden-Putin meeting — Geneva — is the place where then US President Ronald Reagan held his first meeting with Soviet Union’s Mikhail Gorbachev in 1985.
    • The key element that is making Washington take the important step of engaging with Moscow to contain the damage in their bilateral ties is that the US wants to focus on its strategic rival, China.

    What’s in it for India?

    • India has long called for reforming global institutions and groupings to reflect modern-day geopolitical realities.
    • Trumps’ offer to expand G7 fitted into New Delhi’s idea of being part of the global high table.
    • With an assertive China looming, the US is calling all like-minded countries to partner in dealing with Beijing.
    • If Biden and Johnson want to take the leap forward and constitute a global democratic alliance of 10-11 countries, it will be an important signal.
    • India is likely to get vaccines from the US — both directly as well as through COVAX. Initial estimates suggest India will get about 2 to 3 million vaccines in the first tranche.

  • US, UK seek to sign New Atlantic Charter

    US President Joe Biden and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson seeks to sign a new Atlantic Charter.

    What is Atlantic Charter?

    • The Atlantic Charter was a statement issued on 14 August 1941 that set out American and British goals for the world after the end of World War II.
    • The charter’s adherents signed the Declaration by United Nations on 1 January 1942, which was the basis for the modern United Nations.
    • The charter inspired several other international agreements and events that followed the end of the war.
    • The dismantling of the British Empire, the formation of NATO, and the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) all derived from the Atlantic Charter.

    Why sign new charter?

    • At their meeting, the two leaders plan to sign what they’re calling a new Atlantic Charter, pledging to “defend the principles, values, and institutions of democracy and open societies.”
    • US hopes to reassure European allies that the US had shed the transactional tendencies of Donald Trump’s term and is a reliable partner again.
    • The US staunchly opposed the Brexit movement, the British exodus from the European Union that Mr. Johnson championed, and has expressed great concern with the future of Northern Ireland.
    • Biden once called the British leader a “physical and emotional clone” of Trump.

  • Pushback against China more likely as Quad gains momentum

    The article discusses the future pushback against China in South Asia and Indo-Pacific as Quad gains more momentum. 

    Context

    Recently, the Chinese Ambassador to Bangladesh, Li Jiming, warned Dhaka that there will be “substantial damage” in bilateral ties between China and Bangladesh if the latter joins the Quad.

    Bangladesh’s reaction

    • Bangladesh Foreign Minister A.K. Abdul Momen promptly and publicly challenged the Chinese envoy’s statement, underlining categorically that Dhaka pursues an independent foreign policy. 
    • That China’s remarks would reverberate far beyond South Asia was expected and perhaps intended.
    • The spokesperson of U.S. State Department remarked, “What we would say is that we respect Bangladesh’s sovereignty and we respect Bangladesh’s right to make foreign policy decisions for itself.”

    Implications for South Asia and Info-Pacific

    • With its message to Bangladesh, Beijing was laying down a marker that nations should desist from engaging with the Quad.
    • This episode captures the emerging fault lines in South Asia and the wider Indo-Pacific.
    • For all its attempts to play down the relevance of the Quad, Beijing realises that the grouping, with all its weaknesses, is emerging as a reality and there is little it can do to prevent that.
    • And so, it is agitated about Quad’s future role and its potential success in offering the regional states an alternative to its own strong-arm tactics.

    About Quad’s agenda

    • The Quad member states are figuring out a cohesive agenda amongst themselves and there are no plans for an expansion.
    • There is a desire to work with like-minded nations but that can only happen if the four members of the Quad can build a credible platform first.
    • Quad has not asked any country to join and no one has shown an interest.
    • But China wants to ensure that after failing in its initial attempt to prevent the Quad from gaining any traction.
    • Its message is well understood by other states who may harbour any desire of working closely with the Quad members.

    Way forward

    • Beijing has failed to prevent nations from the West to the East from coming out with their Indo-Pacific strategies.
    • It has failed to prevent the operationalisation of the Quad, and now it might be worried about other nations in the region thinking of engaging with the Quad more proactively.
    • Even Bangladesh is planning to come out with its own Indo-Pacific strategy and Beijing has now warned Dhaka that a close cooperation with the Quad should not be part of the policy mix.
    •  As the Quad gains more momentum and the churn in the waters of the Indo-Pacific leads to new countervailing coalitions against China, Beijing’s belligerence can only be expected to grow.

    Conclusion

    Beijing is more likely to demand clear-cut foreign policy choices from its regional interlocutors, as its warning to Bangladesh underscores. But as Dhaka’s robust response makes it clear, states are more likely to push back than become subservient to Chinese largesse.

  • Opportunity to expand ties with West

    The article takes an overview of the growing convergence of India’s interest with the West in the changing geopolitical scenario and opportunities it offers to India.

    Significance of G-7 Summit for India

    • Summit of the G-7, the Group of Seven industrial countries, will be hosted by the United Kingdom this week.
    • Prime Minister Narendra Modi will participate digitally in this summit.
    • This participation also marks an important step towards a new global compact between India and the West.
    • The global financial crisis of 2008, the rapid rise of China, divisions within the West during the Trump years, and the chaotic response in North America and Europe to the Covid-19 pandemic, were the factors that indicated the decline of the West.
    • In his first tour abroad as the US president wants to demonstrate that the collective West is an enduring force to reckon with under renewed American leadership.
    • For India, the G-7 summit is an opportunity to expand the global dimension of India’s growing partnerships with the US and Europe.

    Convergence of interests between India and the West

    • The challenges from an increasingly aggressive China, the urgency of mitigating climate change, and the construction of a post-pandemic international order are generating convergence between the interests of India and the West.
    • India’s current engagement with the G-7 is about global issues.
    • The idea of a global democratic coalition that is based more broadly than the geographic West has gained ground in recent years.
    • And India is at the very heart of that Western calculus.
    • For India, too, the G-7summit comes amidst intensifying strategic cooperation with the West.
    • This includes strong bilateral strategic cooperation with the US, France, UK as well as the Quad and the trilateral partnerships with France and Australia as well as Japan and Australia.
    • India has also stepped up its engagement with the European Union.

    China factor

    • India’s increasing engagement with the US and the West has been triggered in part by the continuous deterioration of the relationship with China.
    • Besides the threat to territorial security, India finds that its hopes for strong global cooperation with China have taken a big beating in recent years.
    • China is the only great power that does not support India’s permanent membership of the UN Security Council and blocks India’s membership of the Nuclear Suppliers Group.
    • At the end of the Cold War, India believed that China was a natural partner in the construction of a multipolar world.
    • India now can’t escape the conclusion that China is the greatest obstacle to India’s global aspirations and the West is an emerging partner.
    •  India has relied on Western support to fend off China’s effort to internationalise the Kashmir question after the 2019 constitutional changes.
    • India walked away from RCEP due to the growing trade imbalance with China and the negative impact of Chinese imports on India’s domestic manufacturing.
    • After China’s aggression in Ladakh last April, India has also sought to actively limit its exposure to Chinese investments and technology.

    Way forward

    • The convergence of interests between India and the West does not mean the two sides will agree on everything.
    •  There are many areas of continuing divergence within the West — from the economic role of the state to the democratic regulation of social media and the technology giants.
    • It will surely not be easy translating the broad convergences between India and the West into tangible cooperation.
    • That would require sustained negotiations on converting shared interests.

    Consider the question “The idea of a global democratic coalition that is based more broadly than the geographic West has gained ground in recent years. This offers India an opportunity to expand the global dimension of India’s growing partnerships with the US and Europe. Comment.”

    Conclusion

    While India continues to strengthen its partnerships in Asia and the global south, a more productive partnership with the West helps secure a growing array of India’s national interests and adds a new depth to India’s international relations.

  • BRICS

    As India is gearing up to host this year’s BRICS summit, the grouping is facing fresh challenges, from disputes among member countries to tackling COVID-triggered crises and opportunities.

    What is BRICS?

    • To be clear, BRICS was not invented by any of its members.
    • In 2001, Goldman Sachs’ Jim O’Neill authored a paper called “Building Better Global Economic BRICs”, pointing out that future GDP growth in the world would come from China, India, Russia and Brazil.
    • Significantly, the paper didn’t recommend a separate grouping for them, but made the case that the G-7 grouping, made up of the world’s most industrialized, and essentially Western countries, should include them.
    • O’Neill also suggested that the G-7 group needed revamping after the introduction of a common currency for Europe, the euro, in 1999.
    • In 2003, Goldman Sachs wrote another paper, “Dreaming with BRICs: Path to 2050”, predicting that the global map would significantly change due to these four emerging economies.
    • In 2006, leaders of the BRIC countries met on the margins of a G-8 (now called G-7) summit in St. Petersburg, Russia, and BRIC was formalized that year.

    Issues in its consolidation

    • Common ground for the members was built by ensuring that no bilateral issues were brought up, but the contradictions remained.
    • Many economists soon grew tired of “emerging” economies that didn’t reach the goals they had predicted.
    • Others saw India’s closer ties with the US after the civil nuclear deal as a sign its bonds with BRICS would weaken.
    • Meanwhile, Russia, which had hoped to bolster its own global influence through the group, had been cast out of the G-7 order altogether after its actions in Crimea in 2014.
    • China, under Xi Jinping, grew increasingly aggressive, and impatient about the other underperforming economies in the group, as it became the U.S.’s main challenger on the global stage.

    Long-term prospects

    • China’s decision to launch the trillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative in 2017 was opposed by India, and even Russia did not join the BRI plan, although it has considerable infrastructure projects with China.
    • South Africa’s debt-laden economy and the negative current account have led some to predict an economic collapse in the next decade.
    • Brazil’s poor handling during the Covid-19 crisis has ranked it amongst the world’s worst-affected countries, and its recovery is expected to be delayed.
    • India’s economic slowdown was a concern even before Covid-19 hit, and government policies like “Aatmanirbhar” were seen as a plan to turn inward.

    Issues with BRICS nations

    • Concerns about aggressions from Russia in Ukraine and Eastern Europe and China in the South China Sea, the border with India and internally in Hongkong and Xinjiang are clear visible.
    • There is creeping authoritarianism in democracies like Brazil and India have made investors question long-term prospects of the group.
    • In the market, BRICS has been mocked for being “broken”, while others have suggested it should be expanded to include more emerging economies like Indonesia, Mexico and Turkey, called the “Next-11”.

    A roadmap to progress

    • BRICS is an idea that has endured two decades, an idea its members remain committed to, and not one has skipped the annual summits held since 2009.
    • Along the way, BRICS has created the New Development Bank (NDB) set up with an initial capital of $100 billion.
    • There is a BRICS Contingent Reserve Arrangement fund to deal with global liquidity crunches, and a BRICS payment system proposing to be an alternative to the SWIFT payment system.

    Reforming the multilaterals

    • The BRICS ministerial meeting held this week sent several important signals to that end, issuing two outcome documents.
    • It included the first “standalone” joint statement on reforming multilateral institutions, including the UN and the UNSC, IMF and World Bank and the WTO.
    • It remains to be seen how far countries like China and Russia, which are already “inside the tent” at the UNSC, will go in advocating for the other BRICS members.
    • Another important agreement was the BRICS ministerial decision to support negotiations at the WTO for the waiver of trade-related intellectual property rights (TRIPs) for vaccines and medicines to tackle the Coronavirus.

    Way forward

    • What appears clear is in the post-Covid world, priorities for all economies will change, and offer up a churning in the world of the kind seen two decades ago, when the idea of a grouping of emerging economies was first floated.
    • For BRICS, the next few months could crystallize that idea, or sink it further, leaving others to wonder whether the “Rise of the Rest” as it was once called, is an idea whose time will ever come at all.

  • Colombo Port City Project and Chinese involvement

    Sri Lanka recently passed the controversial Colombo Port City Economic Commission Bill, which governs the China-backed Colombo Port City project worth $1.4 billion, amid wide opposition to the creation of a “Chinese enclave” in the island nation.

    Colombo Port City Project

    • The Colombo Port City has grabbed headlines in Sri Lanka in recent months even as the relentless third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic sweeps through the country.
    • Almost an artificial island, the territory coming up on 2.69 square kilometers of land reclaimed from Colombo’s seafront has stirred controversy since its inception.
    • Those backing it see in that patch of land their dream of an international financial hub — a “Singapore or Dubai” in the Indian Ocean.

    When was it launched?

    • The project was launched in September 2014 by Chinese President Xi Jinping during a visit to the island nation under the Mahinda Rajapaksa administration’s second term.
    • After President Mahinda Rajapaksa was ousted in January 2015, the successor “national unity” government of Maithripala Sirisena and Ranil Wickremesinghe went ahead with the project after briefly halting it.
    • On returning to power in November 2019, the Rajapaksas vowed to expedite the project. The Sri Lankan government says the project will bring in around 83,000 jobs and $15 billion initially.

    Issues with the project

    • But skeptics claim that it could well become a “Chinese colony”, with the Bill, which is now an Act.
    • The law provides China substantial “immunity” from Sri Lankan laws, besides huge tax exemptions and other incentives for investors.

    What is the extent of China’s involvement?

    Effectively, China has substantial control over two key infrastructure projects in Sri Lanka for a century.

    • The port city project is financed chiefly through Chinese investment amounting to $1.4 billion.
    • In return, the company will receive 116 hectares (of the total 269 hectares) on a 99-year lease.
    • The city separates from but located adjacent to the Colombo Port, the country’s main harbor — is the third major port-related infrastructure project where China has a significant stake.
    • China Merchants Port Holdings has an 85% stake in the Colombo International Container Terminal under a 35-year ‘Build Operate and Transfer’ agreement with the Sri Lanka Port Authority.
    • In 2017, the Sirisena-Wickremesinghe administration, unable to repay the Chinese loan with which it was saddled by the previous government, handed over the Hambantota Port to China on a 99-year lease.

    Concerns from within Sri Lanka

    • Since its launch, the Colombo Port City project has faced opposition from environmentalists and fisherfolk, who feared that the project would affect marine life and livelihoods.
    • However, in the absence of wider political and societal support, their resistance did not dent successive governments’ resolve to pursue the project.
    • The more recent opposition was specific to the Colombo Port City Economic Commission Bill.
    • The resistance came from Opposition parties and civil society groups, including many who do not oppose the project per se, but rather its governance by “an all-powerful commission answerable to no one”.
    • Significantly, a section of Buddhist monks, wielding much influence in Sri Lankan politics and the Sinhala society, also opposed the Bill and said that it eroded Sri Lanka’s sovereignty.

  • G7 members endorse global minimum tax

    Finance Ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) rich nations have reached a landmark accord setting a global minimum corporate tax rate, an agreement that could form the basis of a worldwide deal.

    Why a global minimum?

    • Major economies are aiming to discourage multinationals from shifting profits — and tax revenues — to low-tax countries regardless of where their sales are made.
    • Increasingly, income from intangible sources such as drug patents, software and royalties on intellectual property has migrated to these jurisdictions, allowing companies to avoid paying higher taxes in their traditional home countries.
    • With its proposal for a minimum 15% tax rate, the Biden administration hopes to reduce such tax base erosion without putting American firms at a financial disadvantage, allowing competition on innovation, infrastructure and other attributes.

    Where are the talks at?

    • The G7 talks feed into a much broader, existing effort.
    • The OECD has been coordinating tax negotiations among 140 countries for years on rules for taxing cross-border digital services and curbing tax base erosion, including a global corporate minimum tax.
    • The OECD and G20 countries aim to reach a consensus on both by mid-year, but the talks on a global corporate minimum are technically simpler and less contentious.
    • If a broad consensus is reached, it will be extremely hard for any low-tax country to try and block an accord.

    How would a global minimum tax work?

    • The global minimum tax rate would apply to overseas profits.
    • Governments could still set whatever local corporate tax rate they want, but if companies pay lower rates in a particular country, their home governments could “top-up” their taxes to the minimum rate.
    • This would eliminate the advantage of shifting profits.

    What about that minimum rate?

    • Talks are focusing on the U.S. proposal of a minimum global corporation tax rate of 15% – above the level in countries such as Ireland but below the lowest G7 level.
    • Any final agreement could have major repercussions for low-tax countries and tax havens.
    • The Irish economy has boomed with the influx of billions of dollars in investment from multinationals.
    • Dublin, which has resisted EU attempts to harmonize its tax rules, is unlikely to accept a higher minimum rate without a fight.
    • However, the battle for low-tax countries is less likely to be about scuppering the overall talks and more about building support for a minimum rate as close as possible to its 12.5% or seeking certain exemptions.

    Back2Basics: G7

    • The G7 or the Group of Seven is a group of the seven most advanced economies as per the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
    • The seven countries are Canada, USA, UK, France, Germany, Japan and Italy. The EU is also represented in the G7.
    • These countries, with the seven largest IMF-described advanced economies in the world, represent 58% of the global net wealth ($317 trillion).
    • The G7 countries also represent more than 46% of the global gross domestic product (GDP) based on nominal values, and more than 32% of the global GDP based on purchasing power parity.
    • The requirements to be a member of the G7 are a high net national wealth and a high HDI (Human Development Index).

  • SCO Agreement on Mass Media Cooperation

    The Union Cabinet has accorded an ex post facto approval for signing and ratifying an agreement on cooperation in the field of mass media between all member states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

    Highlights of the Agreement

    • The agreement, which was signed in June 2019, would provide an opportunity for the member states to share best practices and new innovations in the field of mass media.
    • It aims to promote equal and mutually beneficial cooperation among associations in the field of mass media.
    • The main areas of cooperation in the agreement are the creation of favorable conditions for the wide and mutual distribution of information through mass media in order to further deepen the knowledge about the lives of the peoples of their states.
    • It will assist in broadcasting television and radio programmer and those, distributed legally within the territory of the state of the other side.

    What is SCO?

    • After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the then security and economic architecture in the Eurasian region dissolved and new structures had to come up.
    • The original Shanghai Five were China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan.
    • The SCO was formed in 2001, with Uzbekistan included. It expanded in 2017 to include India and Pakistan.
    • Since its formation, the SCO has focused on regional non-traditional security, with counter-terrorism as a priority.
    • The fight against the “three evils” of terrorism, separatism and extremism has become its mantra. Today, areas of cooperation include themes such as economics and culture.

    Try this PYQ now:

    Q. In the context of the affairs of which of the following is the phrase “Special Safeguard Mechanisms” mentioned in the news frequently?

    (a) United Nations Environment Programme

    (b) World Trade Organization

    (c) ASEAN- India Free Trade Agreement

    (d) G-20 Summits

    India’s entry to the SCO

    • India and Pakistan both were observer countries.
    • While Central Asian countries and China were not in favor of expansion initially, the main supporter — of India’s entry in particular — was Russia.
    • A widely held view is that Russia’s growing unease about an increasingly powerful China prompted it to push for its expansion.
    • From 2009 onwards, Russia officially supported India’s ambition to join the SCO. China then asked for its all-weather friend Pakistan’s entry.

  • What is the EAGLE Act of US Visas?

    Legislation to remove the per-country cap on permanent residency visas, or green cards, for the US has been introduced in the House of Representatives.

    What is the EAGLE Act?

    • Eagle stands for Equal Access to Green cards for Legal Employment (EAGLE) Act, 2021.
    • The act seeks to phase out the seven percent per-country limit on employment-based immigrant visas and raises the per-country limit on family-sponsored visas from seven percent to 15 percent.
    • It provides for a nine-year period for the elimination of this limit.
    • The seven percent limit was introduced in the mid-20th century, which has led countries with relatively small populations to be allocated the same number of visas as a relatively large-population country.

    Benefits of the act

    • It will benefit the US economy by allowing American employers to focus on hiring immigrants based on their merit, not their birthplace.
    • The bill will be advantageous for Indian job-seekers who currently rely on temporary visas or await green cards to work in the US.

    How does it help Indians?

    • 75 percent of the backlog for employment‐based visas was made up of Indians.
    • Backlogged Indian workers face an impossible wait of nine decades if they all could remain in the line.
    • More than 200,000 petitions filed for Indians could expire as a result of the workers dying of old age before they receive green cards.
    • With the EAGLE Act, the per-country cap would be removed, which may expedite the petitions for those applying for employment-based green cards.

  • COVID diplomacy 2.0, a different order of tasks

    The article highlights the contrast in India’s diplomacy during the first wave of the pandemic and the second wave. It also discusses the challenges ahead for India.

    India’s diplomatic structure in two Covid waves

    •  In the past month, the focus for the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) and Missions abroad has shifted.
    • During the first wave of the pandemic, focus was on coordinating exports of COVID-19 medicines, flights to repatriate Indians abroad through the ‘Vande Bharat Mission’ after the lockdown, and then exporting vaccines worldwide- ‘Vaccine Maitri’.
    • After the second wave, Covid Diplomacy 2.0 has a different order of tasks, both in the immediate and the long term.
    • The immediate imperative was to deal with oxygen and medicine shortages that claimed the lives of thousands.
    • The Ministry of External Affairs has had to deal with internal health concerns while galvanising help from abroad for others.
    • Despite difficulties, the Ministry of External Affairs has completed the task of bringing in supplies in a timely manner, and with success.

    Dealing with vaccine shortage

    • Companies manufacturing AstraZeneca and Sputnik-V are stretched as far as future production is concerned.
    • The Chinese vaccines are out of consideration given bilateral tensions.
    • So, it is clear that India is looking to the U.S. to make up the shortfall.
    • This could be done in the following ways:
    • 1) Requesting the U.S. to share a substantial portion of its stockpile of AstraZeneca.
    • The U.S. government is holding up its AstraZeneca exports until its own United States Food and Drug Administration approves them.
    • 2) Asking the US to release more vaccine ingredients which are restricted for exports.
    • 3) To buy more stock outright from the three U.S. manufacturers, Pfizer, Moderna and Johnson & Johnson, and to encourage production in India of these vaccines.
    • Production of Johnson & Johnson single-dose vaccines in India, as had been announced during the Quad summit, will take some time.
    • The U.S. companies seem set on getting both an indemnity waiver from India as well as Emergency Use Authorisation prior to supplying them.
    • The Government may also need to make a change to its publicly announced policy that States in India will need to negotiate purchases directly, as the U.S. manufacturers want centralised orders, with payments up-front.

    2) Patent waiver

    • The promise of patent waivers, from India’s joint proposal at the World Trade Organization (WTO) will not reap early benefits.
    • Even though it has received support from world leaders such as the U.S., Russia and China.
    • Many countries including Japan, Australia, Brazil and EU are still holding out on the idea of freeing up intellectual property rights on vaccines for three years.
    • That could ultimately hold up proceedings at the WTO, as it works by consensus.

    3) Diplomatic fallout of vaccine collapse

    • The Government has defended its decision to export more than 66 million vaccines doses to 95 countries between January and April this year.
    • All exports were stopped as soon as cases in India began to soar.
    • Both India’s neighbours and partners in Africa as well as global agencies depending on India for vaccines have been left in the lurch by the Government’s failure to balance its vaccine budget.
    • For example, once India completed delivery of the first batch, of 550,000 Covishield doses, Bhutan completed the administration of the first dose to 93% of its population in a record 16 days.
    • Two months later, Bhutan does not have any vaccines to complete the second dose and has been left requesting other countries for vaccines.
    • It is no surprise that each of India’s neighbours has now sought help from China and the U.S. to complete their vaccination drives.

    4) Tracing virus pathways

    • India, as one of the worst pandemic-hit countries, must be at the forefront of demanding accountability on the origin of the virus.
    • The World Health Organisation (WHO) which studied “pathways of emergence” of SARS-CoV2 in Wuhan, listed four possibilities:
    • 1) Direct zoonotic transmission.
    • 2) An intermediate host.
    • 3) Cold chain or transmission through food.
    • 4) A laboratory incident.
    • China appears adamant on blocking these studies.
    • Even the U.S. appears to have dragged its feet on a conclusive finding, possibly because the U.S. National Institutes of Health had funded some of the Wuhan Institute’s research.

    Way forward on virus pathways

    • India must call for a more definitive answer and also raise its voice for a stronger convention to regulate any research that could lead, by accident or design, to something as the current pandemic.
    •  It is necessary to revamp the 1972 Biological Weapons Convention to institute an implementation body to assess treaty compliance, and build safer standards for the future.

    Consider the question “How different was the impact of two Covid-19 waves on India’s diplomacy? What are the challenges India faces in the near future in dealing with the fallout of the pandemic?”

    Conclusion

    With its seat at the UN Security Council as non-permanent member and its position on WHO’s Executive Board, India could seek to regain the footing it has lost over the past few months of COVID-19 mismanagement, by taking a lead role in ensuring the world is protected from the next such pandemic.