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GS Paper: GS3

  • “Revive Our Ocean” Initiative

    Why in the News?

    A new global initiative called ‘Revive Our Ocean’ was launched with the goal of scaling up effective, community-led marine protected areas (MPAs) to boost marine conservation efforts.

    About the Revive Our Ocean Initiative:

    • It is a global effort to enhance marine ecosystem protection through community-led Marine Protected Areas (MPAs).
    • It was launched by David Attenborough, Dynamic Planet, and National Geographic’s Pristine Seas to scale up MPAs, empowering coastal communities to lead conservation efforts.
    • The goal is to protect 30% of the world’s oceans by 2030, aligning with the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KMGBF).
    • Initially focused on 7 countries: UK, Portugal, Greece, Turkey, Philippines, Indonesia, and Mexico, using successful MPA models.
    • It emphasizes economic benefits of MPAs, such as generating €16 million annually from diving tourism in Medes Island, Spain.

    Back2Basics: Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KMGBF)

    • KMGBF was adopted in December 2022, the KMGBF aims to halt biodiversity loss by 2030 and ensure human-nature harmony by 2050.
    • It replaces the Aichi Biodiversity Targets and is often referred to as the “Paris Agreement for Nature“, with 196 countries adopting it.
    • The framework sets a 30×30 target, aiming to protect 30% of global land and marine areas by 2030 and restore ecosystems.
    • It focuses on halting species extinction, reducing pollution, and promoting sustainable agriculture, forestry, and fisheries.
    • Other targets include reducing pesticide and nutrient pollution, minimising harmful waste, and promoting urban green spaces.

     

    [UPSC 2012] The acidification of oceans is increasing. Why is this phenomenon a cause of concern?

    1. The growth and survival of calcareous phytoplankton will be adversely affected.

    2. The growth and survival of coral reefs will be adversely affected.

    3. The survival of some animals that have phytoplanktonic larvae will be adversely affected.

    4. The cloud seeding and formation of clouds will be adversely affected.

    Which among the statements given above is/are correct?

    Options: (a) 1, 2 and 3 only* (b) 2 only (c) 1 and 3 only (d) 1, 2, 3 and 4

     

  • DRDO achieves milestone in Scramjet Hypersonic Engine Development

    Why in the News?

    The DRDO Laboratory (DRDL), located in Hyderabad, successfully demonstrated long-duration Active Cooled Scramjet Subscale Combustor ground testing for over 1,000 seconds.

    About Hypersonic Cruise Missiles:

    • Hypersonic cruise missiles are advanced weapons capable of travelling at speeds greater than Mach 5 (approximately 6,100 km/h), making them 5x faster than the speed of sound.
    • These missiles use Scramjets (Supersonic Combustion Ramjets) powered by atmospheric oxygen, making them more efficient for long-duration travel compared to traditional missiles that carry their own oxidizers.
    • They maintain high speeds and are highly manoeuvrable, making them difficult to intercept by current missile defense systems.
    • They can strike targets at long ranges with minimal warning and penetrate advanced defense shields.

    DRDO’s Achievement:

    • The DRDO successfully conducted long-duration Active Cooled Scramjet Subscale Combustor ground testing for over 1,000 seconds.
    • This test advances India’s capability to develop hypersonic cruise missiles, validating the design of the scramjet combustor and the test facility, both crucial for developing air-breathing propulsion systems.
    • This paves the way for full-scale flight-worthy combustor testing, bringing India closer to developing functional hypersonic missiles and enhancing its defense capabilities.
    [UPSC 2023] Consider the following statements:

    1. Ballistic missiles are jet-propelled at subsonic speeds throughout their fights, while cruise missiles are rocket-powered only in the initial phase of flight.

    2. Agni-V is a medium-range supersonic cruise missile, while BrahMos is a solid-fuelled intercontinental ballistic missile.

    Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

    Options: (a) 1 only (b) 2 only (c) Both 1 and 2 (d) Neither 1 nor 2*

     

  • India to ban Chlorpyrifos  

    Why in the News?

    Policymakers and scientists are set to gather in Geneva for the Conferences of the Parties to the Basel, Rotterdam, and Stockholm (BRS) Conventions.

    India’s Pesticide Action Network will advocate for a global ban on Chlorpyrifos, a toxic pesticide still in use despite being banned in over 40 countries.

    About Chlorpyrifos:

    • Chlorpyrifos is an organophosphate pesticide used to control pests, including insects, fungi, and weeds on crops like corn, soybeans, and fruits, as well as non-crop areas like turf and buildings.
    • It disrupts the nervous system of pests by inhibiting acetylcholinesterase, an enzyme critical for nerve function, causing paralysis and death in pests.
    • Despite being banned in over 40 countries due to its environmental and health risks, it continues to be used in many countries, including India.

    Chlorpyrifos in India:

    • Not entirely banned in India; It is registered under the Insecticides Act of 1968, with restrictions such as a ban on its use on ber, citrus, and tobacco (as per a 2023 notification).
    • But it is also used on other crops, including rice, cotton, groundnut, and onion.
    • India is one of the largest producers and exporters of Chlorpyrifos globally.

    Threats Posed by Chlorpyrifos:

    • Human Health Risks: Linked to nervous system issues, developmental disorders in children, cancer, and liver/kidney damage.
    • Environmental Impact: Highly toxic to aquatic life and pollinators like bees.
    • Soil & Crop Contamination: Persistent in the environment, leading to pesticide residue in the food chain.
    • Biodiversity Loss: Affects non-target species, disrupting ecosystems.
    • Resistance: Overuse leads to pesticide resistance, requiring more harmful chemicals for pest control.
    [UPSC 2019] In India, the use of carbofuran, methyl parathion, phorate and triazophos is viewed with apprehension. These chemicals are used as-

    Options: (a) pesticides in agriculture * (b) preservatives in processed foods (c) fruit-ripening agents (d) moisturising agents in cosmetics

     

  • [pib] Measuring Helium Abundance in the Sun

    Why in the News?

    Researchers at the Indian Institute of Astrophysics (IIA) have successfully estimated the abundance of Helium in the Sun’s photosphere with precision for the first time.

    [pib] Measuring Helium Abundance in the Sun

    About Helium in the Sun’s Photosphere:

    • Helium is the second most abundant element in the Sun after Hydrogen and plays a key role in understanding solar composition, opacity, and energy transport.
    • However, measuring its precise abundance in the Sun’s photosphere has been challenging due to the absence of observable Helium spectral lines in visible light.
    • Traditionally, Helium abundance was estimated using indirect methods like extrapolating data from hotter stars, solar wind observations, and seismological studies of the Sun’s interior.
    • These methods lacked direct photospheric observations, making the estimates less accurate.
    • Accurate measurements of Helium are essential for modelling the Sun’s opacity and energy transport. This also has broader implications for understanding the composition of other stars.

    Novel Method Recently Discovered:

    • Researchers from the IIA introduced a novel method to directly estimate Helium abundance in the Sun’s photosphere.
    • This technique uses spectral features from Magnesium (Mg) and Carbon (C), overcoming the challenge of no direct Helium spectral lines.
    • Spectral lines from Mg, C, and hydrogenated molecules (MgH, CH, C2) were used to infer Helium abundance.
    • Equivalent Width analyses and spectrum synthesis techniques helped model the behavior of these elements in varying Helium-to-Hydrogen ratios.
    • The Helium-to-Hydrogen ratio in the Sun’s photosphere was found to be 0.1, consistent with previous studies. This confirms the validity of the new method.
    [UPSC 2023] Diffusion of light in the atmosphere takes place due to:

    Options: (a) Carbon dioxide (b) Dust particles* (c) Helium (d) Water vapors

     

  • [24th April 2025] The Hindu Op-ed: Responding to the terror attack in Pahalgam

    PYQ Relevance:

    [UPSC 2024] Winning of ‘Hearts and Minds’ in terrorism-affected areas is an essential step in restoring the trust of the population. Discuss the measures adopted by the Government in this respect as part of the conflict resolution in Jammu and Kashmir.

    Linkage: The Pahalgam attack occurred in Jammu and Kashmir. This question directly addresses strategies for building trust and resolving conflict in terrorism-affected regions, which is a crucial aspect of responding to such attacks in the long term.

     

    Mentor’s Comment:  The terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, is not just an act of violence; it’s a calculated political move, carefully timed to cause both human casualties and strategic disruption. The attack took place shortly after the Kashmir Valley started welcoming tourists for the season and while U.S. Vice-President J.D. Vance was visiting India. This is not a random attack, but part of a long-standing pattern of cross-border terrorism supported by Pakistan’s military and intelligence agencies. At a time when Pakistan had faded from India’s diplomatic focus, it has now returned, aiming to disrupt what India holds dear.

    Today’s editorial analyzes the recent terrorist attack in the Baisaran meadows of Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir. This discussion will be useful for GS Paper 2 on International Relations and GS Paper 3 on Border Management.

    _

    Let’s learn!

    Why in the News?

    On April 22, 2025, terrorists attacked a group of tourists in the Baisaran meadows of Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, killing dozens and injuring many others. This was the first major attack on civilians in Kashmir since the government removed the region’s special status in 2019.

    Why is the Pahalgam attack seen as a political signal beyond terrorism?

    • Strategic Timing: The attack was carefully timed to coincide with major diplomatic events, aiming to internationalize the Kashmir issue and undermine India’s global image. Eg: It occurred during U.S. Vice-President J.D. Vance’s visit to India, drawing global attention and signaling instability in Kashmir.
    • Undermining Normalcy: Targeting a tourist destination was meant to damage the perception of peace, hurt local livelihoods, and instill fear among potential visitors. Eg: The attack happened in Baisaran near Pahalgam, a scenic spot often described as ‘mini Switzerland’, during peak tourism season.
    • Proxy Warfare: It reflects Pakistan’s continued reliance on non-state actors to wage asymmetric warfare against India while maintaining deniability. Eg: The Resistance Front (TRF), linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba and ISI, claimed responsibility—mirroring past attacks like the 2019 Pulwama bombing.

    What intelligence and security lapses does the attack reveal?

    • Failure of Local Intelligence Gathering: Security forces lacked timely and actionable intelligence about militant movement in a high-tourist zone. Eg: Despite a large number of tourists in Pahalgam, there were no alerts about possible threats in the area prior to the attack.
    • Inadequate Perimeter Surveillance: The attackers exploited gaps in area surveillance and patrol routines around tourist spots. Eg: The militants attacked near Baisaran meadow—an open and vulnerable area with limited surveillance despite being a tourist hotspot.
    • Weak Coordination Among Agencies: Lack of seamless coordination between intelligence, police, and paramilitary forces led to poor threat anticipation and response. Eg: Local police reportedly had not received central alerts, reflecting weak inter-agency information sharing.
    • Overreliance on Static Security Checks: Security was concentrated at checkpoints, but attackers used off-road routes to bypass these. Eg: Militants avoided heavily guarded roads and struck a moving vehicle, indicating knowledge of patrol patterns.
    • Neglect of Civilian Vulnerability Mapping: No dynamic assessment of soft targets such as unescorted tourist groups in sensitive areas. Eg: The victims were on a pony ride, unprotected, with no security escort in a forested zone open to ambush.

    How does Pakistan’s instability under Gen. Munir fuel cross-border terrorism?

    • Military-Civil Power Struggle: The weakening of civilian institutions and dominance of the military creates an environment where the Army uses external conflicts to maintain control. Eg: Gen. Munir’s growing influence post-Imran Khan’s ousting has coincided with increased militant activity in Kashmir to divert attention from domestic unrest.
    • Use of Terrorism as Strategic Depth: The Pakistani military views proxy groups as tools to counterbalance India without engaging in direct war. Eg: Groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed have resurged in training and logistics activities near the LoC.
    • Diverting Attention from Internal Crises: Facing economic collapse and political chaos, Pakistan’s deep state stokes tensions with India to unify the populace and distract from internal failures. Eg: After IMF bailout troubles and mass protests, there was a spike in infiltration attempts into J&K.
    • Weak Civilian Oversight on Terror Networks: Political instability weakens civilian checks on terror outfits, allowing the military and ISI to operate with impunity. Eg: Banned terror outfits continue to function under new names and operate training camps openly in PoK and Punjab regions.
    • ISI’s Tactical Shift Toward Lone Wolf or Hybrid Militants: The ISI, under Munir’s tenure as ex-ISI chief, has adapted to deploy hard-to-trace, localised operatives, making it harder for India to track networks. Eg: Attacks like Pahalgam have shown signs of hybrid militancy—locals radicalised online but supported logistically from across the border.

    How can India align its external stance with internal outreach in Kashmir?

    • Promote Development as a Security Strategy: Emphasize infrastructure, education, and employment to win hearts locally and showcase progress internationally. Eg: The Srinagar Smart City project and new medical colleges can be highlighted in diplomatic forums to counter negative narratives.
    • Empower Local Governance: Strengthen democratic institutions like Panchayats and urban bodies to demonstrate political normalization. Eg: Conducting timely local body elections and empowering DDCs reflects ground-level participation, reinforcing India’s democratic image globally.
    • Consistent Narrative Management: Maintain a unified communication strategy to counter misinformation from hostile actors. Eg: India’s MEA and J&K administration issuing joint statements during crises can reduce confusion and reinforce India’s position internationally.
    • Engage Diaspora and Global Media: Leverage Indian diaspora and media outreach to project a balanced narrative on Kashmir reforms and security. Eg: Indian embassies organizing Kashmir-focused briefings in the US/EU to highlight post-Article 370 investments and peace-building.
    • Cultural and Religious Diplomacy: Promote Kashmir’s syncretic traditions like Sufism to counter radical narratives. Eg: Organizing international Sufi festivals or Buddhist circuit promotion in Ladakh can portray Kashmir as culturally inclusive and peaceful.

    What steps has taken by the Indian Government?

    • Diplomatic Measures: India has downgraded its diplomatic and logistical ties with Pakistan.Eg: The Indus Waters Treaty has been suspended, the Attari-Wagah border crossing has been closed, and Pakistani defense advisors have been expelled. Additionally, Pakistani nationals in India under regional visas have been given 48 hours to leave, and India’s embassy staff in Islamabad has been reduced.
    • Security Enhancements: The Indian government has increased security measures in Jammu and Kashmir. Eg: Security forces are conducting a major manhunt in the region to apprehend the perpetrators of the attack. The government is also reviewing and strengthening security protocols to prevent future incidents.

    Way forward: 

    • Enhanced Security Infrastructure: Strengthen intelligence networks and surveillance systems in vulnerable regions like Jammu and Kashmir to preempt cross-border terrorism and ensure rapid response capabilities.
    • Diplomatic Pressure on Pakistan: Intensify international diplomatic efforts to isolate Pakistan by leveraging global platforms, pressing for accountability, and fostering stronger alliances to counter terrorism.

  • Air pollution in India — where does it come from?

    Why in the News?

    Millions of people die early because of dirty air. But where does this air pollution come from?

    Where do the majority of sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions in India come from?

    • Energy Production: The largest source of sulphur dioxide (SO2) emissions in India is energy production, primarily from coal-fired power plants. Eg, coal contains sulphur impurities that are released when it is burned, contributing significantly to SO2 pollution.
    • Industrial Activities: Industries like cement production, steel manufacturing, and chemical plants also release SO2. Eg, the cement industry, which uses fossil fuels, is a major emitter of this pollutant.

    What are the main sources of nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions?

    • Transportation: The largest source of nitrogen oxides (NOx) emissions is transportation, particularly from the exhaust of cars and trucks. Eg, diesel-powered vehicles, which burn fuel less efficiently, produce higher NOx emissions.
    • Energy Production: The burning of coal and gas for electricity generation also significantly contributes to NOx emissions. Eg, power plants that burn coal release large amounts of NOx during the combustion process.
    • Industrial Activities: Industrial processes such as manufacturing and chemical production also emit NOx. Eg, refineries and other heavy industries use high-temperature processes that release NOx as a byproduct.

    What sectors are the biggest contributors to methane (CH4) emissions?

    • Agriculture: The largest source of methane emissions, particularly from livestock digestion (enteric fermentation) and rice paddies. Eg, cows and other ruminants produce methane during digestion, and flooded rice fields emit methane as organic matter decomposes anaerobically.
    • Waste Management: Methane is released from organic waste decomposing in landfills under anaerobic conditions. Eg, food waste rotting in landfills produces significant methane emissions.
    • Fossil Fuel Extraction: Methane is emitted during the extraction, transport, and use of fossil fuels, especially natural gas. Eg, methane leaks from oil and gas pipelines, as well as from coal mines, contributing to atmospheric emissions.

    How does agriculture contribute to ammonia (NH3) emissions and their health impacts?

    • Agriculture: The application of nitrogen-based fertilizers is a major source of ammonia emissions. Eg, the use of urea fertilizers in crop fields results in ammonia volatilization when applied to the soil, contributing to air pollution.
    • Livestock Waste: Ammonia is released from animal manure, especially from large-scale livestock farming. Eg, in intensive dairy and poultry farms, ammonia is emitted from urine and feces, leading to air and water pollution.
    • Health Impacts: Ammonia contributes to the formation of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), which can cause respiratory issues, asthma, and premature deaths. Eg, exposure to ammonia-laden air in farming areas has been linked to increased health risks such as lung diseases and cardiovascular problems.

    What are the steps taken by the Indian Government?

    • National Clean Air Programme (NCAP): Launched in 2019, NCAP aims to reduce particulate matter (PM2.5 and PM10) pollution in 102 cities by 20-30% by 2024, with strategies focusing on controlling emissions from key sectors like transport, industries, and construction.
    • Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana: This initiative aims to replace traditional biomass cooking methods with clean cooking technologies, such as LPG, to reduce black carbon emissions in rural areas.
    • BS-VI Norms for Vehicles: The Indian government has enforced the Bharat Stage VI (BS-VI) emission standards from April 2020, which are aimed at significantly reducing nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate emissions from vehicles.
    • Pollution Control Measures in Power Plants: The government has set deadlines for coal-fired power plants to comply with stricter emission norms for sulphur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and particulate matter.
    • Air Quality Monitoring and Data Collection: The government has set up a network of air quality monitoring stations across cities under the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) and is working to improve real-time data collection on air quality.

    Way forward: 

    • Shift to Clean Energy: Expand renewable energy use and enforce cleaner technologies in the power and industrial sectors to cut SO₂ and NOₓ emissions.
    • Strengthen Enforcement & Awareness: Ensure strict implementation of air quality norms and raise public awareness on pollution-reducing practices.

    Mains PYQ:

    [UPSC 2022] Discuss in detail the photochemical smog, emphasising its formation, effects and mitigation.

    Linkage: Formation of a significant type of air pollution, photochemical smog, which is formed from primary pollutants like Nitrogen oxides (from transport and industry) reacting in the presence of sunlight [209, external knowledge]. Understanding the formation requires knowing the precursor pollutants and their sources.

  • Akshvi Platform for Disaster Damage Reporting

    Why in the News?

    India has introduced Akshvi, a unique e-digital wallet aimed at assisting in disaster relief and improving the accuracy of loss reporting.

    About Akshvi: The E-Digital Wallet for Disasters

    • Akshvi (Aapda Kshati Vivaran) is a unique e-digital wallet developed by SEEDS India to assist disaster-stricken communities in India.
    • The platform allows people to self-report economic and non-economic losses during climate-induced events.
    • It bridges the data gap in disaster reporting and enhancing relief distribution and climate resilience.

    Key Features of Akshvi:

    • Self-Reporting Mechanism: It enables affected communities to log their losses during disasters such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, and landslides, ensuring accurate and timely assessments.
    • Localized Data Collection: The platform collects hyperlocal data, which is vital for tailoring disaster management strategies and relief efforts to the specific needs of affected communities.
    • User-Friendly Interface:
      • IVRS: Allows voice recording of losses.
      • WhatsApp Chatbot: For tech-savvy users to log data.
      • Assisted Data Entry: Available for those needing help with information entry.
    • Traceability: The platform tracks the progress of relief, ensuring that aid reaches the affected households transparently.
    • Integration with Government Schemes: Akshvi’s data links to social welfare schemes and index-based insurance programs, improving disaster response efforts.
    [UPSC 2004] In which one of the following countries did hundreds of people die in 2004 due to Tropical Storm Jeanne?

    Options: (a) Colombia  (b) Haiti (c) Sudan (d) Ghana

     

  • Species in news: Musk Deer

    Why in the News?

    A recent report by the Central Zoo Authority (CZA), highlights the absence of any breeding programme for musk deer.

    Species in news: Musk Deer

    About Musk Deer:

    • The Himalayan Musk Deer (Moschus leucogaster) is an endangered species native to the Himalayas, found in India, Nepal, Bhutan, Pakistan, and China.
    • It inhabits altitudes of 2,200 to 4,300 meters, primarily in alpine forests and scrublands.
    • Behaviour: Solitary, nocturnal, and territorial. Males have long, curved canine teeth and a musk gland, which is highly valued and targeted by poachers.
    • It plays a key role in seed dispersal, helping maintain the balance of the alpine ecosystem.
    • Threats: Poaching for their musk glands, habitat loss from deforestation, and genetic issues due to fragmented populations.

    Conservation Initiatives:

    • Protection Status:
      • It is listed as Endangered on the IUCN Red List.
      • It is listed under Schedule I of the Wildlife (Protection) Act, 1972, offering the highest protection under Indian law.
    • Protected Areas:
      • Kedarnath Wildlife Sanctuary: Established in 1972, covering 975 km² in the western Himalayas, crucial for musk deer conservation.
      • Askot Musk Deer Sanctuary: Located in Uttarakhand, dedicated specifically to musk deer conservation.
    • Himalayan Musk Project (1982): Aimed at captive breeding within Kedarnath Sanctuary but faced setbacks due to disease, snake bites, and poor survival rates. The project was shut down in 2006.
    [UPSC 2020] Which of the following are the most likely places to find the musk deer in its natural habitat?

    1. Askot Wildlife Sanctuary

    2. Gangotri National Park

    3. Kishanpur Wildlife Sanctuary

    4. Manas National Park

    Select the correct answer using the code given below:

    Options: (a) 1 and 2 only (b) 2 and 3 only (c) 3 and 4 only (d) 1 and 4 only

     

  • Role of Lipids in Protein Function and Co-Evolution

    Why in the News?

    New research by CSIR-Centre for Cellular and Molecular Biology, Hyderabad suggest that lipids (along with DNA), particularly in mitochondrial membranes, are not just structural elements but play an integral role in the function and evolution of proteins.

    About Lipids and RC1 in Cells:

    Lipids:

    • Lipids, including fats, phospholipids, and sterols, make up to 30% of the dry weight of cells.
    • They are crucial for membrane integrity and various biological processes.
    • They vary in fatty acid composition and length, influenced by genetics, diet, and environmental factors.
    • They form a bilayer in membranes, with hydrophilic heads facing outward and hydrophobic tails inward, providing stability and enabling protein function.
    • Role of Lipids in Cells:
      • Lipids form the bilayer, providing flexibility and stability for membrane proteins that perform functions like receptor binding and ion channelling.
      • They like cardiolipin stabilize RC1 and other respiratory complexes, aiding energy production.

    RC1 (Respiratory Complex 1):

    • RC1 is a protein complex in the mitochondrial membrane, crucial for cellular respiration and energy production.
    • It is composed of 44 proteins, some synthesized in the cytoplasm and others in mitochondria.
    • Mutations in RC1 lead to diseases due to its vital role in respiration.

    Lipid-Protein Co-evolution as per new Research:

    • New research highlights the co-evolution of proteins and lipids, especially in mitochondrial membranes, where proteins interact with specific lipids from their own kingdom (plant or animal).
    • Plant lipids, richer in polyunsaturated fatty acids, are more flexible, aiding stress resistance, while animal lipids evolve differently to meet their needs.
    • Lipid-protein co-evolution adds complexity to cellular evolution, with implications for human health and disease treatment.
    [UPSC 2001] Which of the following cell organelles play the most significant role in protein synthesis?

    Options: (a) Lysosome and Centrosome (b) Endoplasmic reticulum and Ribosome* (c) Golgi apparatus and Mitochondria (d) Lysosome and Mitochondria

     

  • Food prices may remain low if IMD’s prediction holds true

    Why in the News?

    According to the India Meteorological Department’s first forecast for 2025, the country may receive around 105% of the average rainfall, with a possible variation of 5% more or less.

    What is the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) forecast for the 2025 monsoon?

    • Above Normal Rainfall Predicted: IMD forecasts 105% of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall for 2025, with a margin of ±5%. Eg: In 2024, India received 108% of LPA, which was categorized as ‘above normal’ rainfall.
    • LPA Reference and Classification: The LPA for the period 1971–2020 is 87 cm. Based on this, rainfall is classified as: Above Normal: 105–110% of LPA. Eg: If the rainfall is 105% of LPA, it falls within the ‘above normal’ range.
    • Improved Forecasting Methodology: Since 2021, IMD uses a multi-model ensemble system, combining global climate models with IMD’s own models, improving forecasting accuracy. Eg: Forecasts since the adoption of this system have shown improved accuracy, reducing error margins from previous years.

    Why is rainfall distribution crucial for agriculture?

    • Impact on Crop Growth: Uneven or poor rainfall distribution can lead to crop stress or failure. Plants depend on consistent water supply during different growth stages. Eg: In 2024, excess rainfall in Maharashtra led to the destruction of onion crops, while deficient rainfall in Punjab delayed paddy sowing, driving up food costs.
    • Effect on Water Availability: Proper rainfall distribution ensures water availability throughout the growing season, which is essential for irrigation systems and groundwater recharge. Eg: If regions like Tamil Nadu receive excess rainfall while other areas like Uttar Pradesh experience drought, it can disrupt the balance, making water management challenging.
    • Geographical Variability and Crop Suitability: Different crops require specific rainfall amounts at different times, so spatial distribution of rainfall is essential for crop selection and yield maximization. Eg: In 2023, Telangana and Puducherry received excess rainfall, benefiting crops like rice, but Bihar faced a below-normal monsoon, impacting food grain production.

    When did IMD improve its forecasting model, and what changed?

    • Improvement Began in 2021: IMD improved its forecasting model by adopting a multi-model ensemble dynamical system in 2021. Eg: Prior to 2021, IMD primarily relied on statistical models, but the new system incorporates global climate models along with IMD’s own models for better accuracy.
    • Enhanced Accuracy with New Models: The introduction of the multi-model ensemble system improved forecast reliability, reducing errors in predictions. Eg: Forecasts post-2021 showed a significant improvement, with accurate predictions of rainfall in regions like Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu during the 2024 monsoon.
    • Reduction in Error Margins: The new approach resulted in reduced error margins, making the first forecasts closer to actual rainfall patterns. Eg: IMD’s first forecast for the 2024 monsoon had a relatively smaller error margin, improving the predictability of rainfall distribution across India compared to previous years.

    How do El Niño, La Niña, and IOD affect the monsoon?

    Weather Phenomenon Effect on Monsoon Example
    El Niño Weakens the monsoon due to warmer sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. This leads to reduced rainfall. Eg: 2014, El Niño conditions led to below-normal rainfall, causing droughts and poor crop production in India.
    La Niña Strengthens the monsoon due to cooler sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, which can lead to excessive rainfall in some areas. Eg: 2017, La Niña conditions contributed to above-normal rainfall, causing floods in some regions like Assam.
    Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Positive IOD can enhance rainfall, while a negative IOD can lead to drought conditions, especially if combined with El Niño. Eg: 2019, a positive IOD helped in normal rainfall despite El Niño, while 2020 had a negative IOD, exacerbating the impact of weak monsoon rainfall.

    Which regions saw abnormal rainfall in 2023, and what was the impact?

    • North and Northwest India: Excessive Rainfall: Heavy rainfall led to flash floods, landslides, and infrastructure damage. Eg: In Himachal Pradesh, intense rainfall triggered landslides and flash floods, resulting in at least 72 deaths and significant infrastructure damage.
    • Northeast India: Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs): Sudden release of water from glacial lakes caused severe flooding, destruction of infrastructure, and loss of life. Eg: In Sikkim, a GLOF resulted in the deaths of at least 31 people, destruction of over 270 houses, and damage to 11 bridges.
    • Southern Peninsula: Deficient Rainfall: Reduced water availability affected agriculture, leading to crop stress and delayed sowing. Eg: In Tamil Nadu, deficient rainfall impacted the sowing of paddy, leading to concerns over food production.

    Way forward: 

    • Enhance Climate Resilience: Promote water management, drought-resistant crops, and crop diversification to mitigate impacts of uneven rainfall.
    • Improve Early Warning Systems: Strengthen forecasting and disaster preparedness to ensure timely responses to extreme weather events.

    Mains PYQ:

    [UPSC 2024] What are the causes of persistent high food inflation in India? Comment on the effectiveness of the monetary policy of the RBI to control this type of inflation.

    Linakge:  If the IMD’s prediction is accurate, a good monsoon could mitigate one of the key drivers of food inflation – erratic rainfall and lower agricultural output. This question asks about the causes of high food inflation; a good monsoon would work against these causes.