A climate change narrative that India can steer

A recent report by the Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES) reveals that India has warmed up 0.7° C during 1901-2018.

What was the report?

Title: Assessment of Climate Change over the Indian Region (by MoES)

(a) Climate severity

• The 2010-2019 decade was the hottest with a mean temperature of 0.36° C higher than average.
• Heatwaves continued to increase with no signs of diminishing greenhouse gas emissions despite lower activity since the novel coronavirus pandemic.
• India may experience a 4.4° C rise by the end of this century.
• Within 2050, rainfall is expected to rise by 6% and temperature by 1.6° C.
• India’s Deccan plateau has seen eight out of 17 severe droughts since 1876 in the 21st century (2000-2003; 2015-2018).

(b) Land degradation

• To make things worse, India lost about 235 square kilometres to coastal erosion due to climate change-induced sea-level rise, land erosion and natural disasters such as tropical cyclones between 1990-2016.

(c) Rising Internal Displacement

• According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, India’s Internally Displaced Populations (IDPs) are rising due to damaging climate events.
• Uttarakhand residents began deserting their homes after the Kedarnath floods in 2013 due to heavy precipitation that increases every year.
• Recent figures are more alarming with 3.9 million displaced in 2020 alone, mostly due to Cyclone Amphan.

India’s commitment to Climate Mitigation

• India held the top 10 position for the second year in a row in 2020’s Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI).
• The country received credit under all of the CCPI’s performance fields except renewable energy where India performed medium.
• India vowed to work with COP21 by signing the Paris Agreement to limit global warming and submitted the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs).
• It set a goal of reducing emissions intensity of GDP by 33%-35% and increasing green energy resources (non-fossil-oil based) to 40% of installed electric power capacity by 2030.
• India cofounded with France at COP21, in 2015, the International Solar Alliance (ISA).

Core concern

(a) Good policies, weak practices

• The question is, are these global alliances and world-leading policies being practised or are merely big promises with little implementation?
• Despite leading ISA, India performed the least in renewable energy according to the CCPI’s performance of India.

(b) Low compliance

• India is not fully compliant with the Paris Agreement’s long-term temperature goal of the NDCs and there are still risks of falling short of the 2° C goal.
• According to India’s carbon emission trajectory, the country is en route to achieve barely half of the pledged carbon sink by 2030.
• To achieve the Paris Agreement’s NDC target, India needs to produce 25 million-30 million hectares of forest cover by 2030 — a third of current Indian forestation and trees.
• Going by the facts, it seems India has overpromised on policies and goals as it becomes difficult to deliver on the same.

Why COP26 matters

• The Glasgow COP26 offers India a great opportunity to reflect on the years since the Paris Agreement and update NDCs to successfully meet the set targets.
• India is expected to be the most populated country by 2027, overtaking China, contributing significantly to the global climate through its consumption pattern.
• India is in a rather unique position to have a significant influence on global climate impact in the new decade.

Conclusion

• India believes that climate actions must be nationally determined.
• However, the Paris Agreement for developing countries should be at the core of decision-making.
• India has the ability to improve its global positioning by leading a favourable climate goal aspiration for the world to follow.
• The country has the opportunity to not only save itself from further climate disasters but also be a leader in the path to climate change prevention.

Back2Basics: COP26, Glasgow

• The 2021 United Nations Climate Change Conference, also known as COP26, is the 26th United Nations Climate Change conference.
• It is scheduled to be held in the city of Glasgow, Scotland between 31 October and 12 November 2021, under the presidency of the United Kingdom.
• This conference is the first time that Parties are expected to commit to enhanced ambition since COP21.
• Parties are required to carry out every five years, as outlined in the Paris Agreement, a process colloquially known as the ‘ratchet mechanism’.

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