Why in the News?

The United Nations Secretary-General has warned that the civil war in Sudan is “spiralling out of control” after the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) seized the strategic Darfur city of El-Fasher.

About the Civil War in Sudan:

• Outbreak: Began in April 2023 between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) led by Gen. Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) led by Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti).
• Causes: Rooted in Sudan’s failed democratic transition after the 2019 overthrow of Omar al-Bashir and the October 2021 military coup.
• Immediate Trigger: Power struggle over RSF integration into the national army under the proposed political framework agreement.
• Conflict Spread: Fighting engulfed Khartoum, Omdurman, and Darfur, causing massive civilian casualties and infrastructure collapse.
• Humanitarian Toll: Over 8.5 million displaced, famine conditions emerging, and public health systems near total breakdown.
• Atrocities: Both sides accused of war crimes, ethnic killings, and looting, particularly in Darfur.
• Territorial Shift: RSF’s capture of El-Fasher (2025) consolidated its control over western Sudan.
• Foreign Actors: Egypt supports SAF; UAE and Russia’s Wagner Group back RSF, fuelling proxy dynamics.

What Lies Ahead?

• Risk of Partition: Sudan may split RSF holding the west, SAF dominating the northeast, leading to de-facto fragmentation.
• Regional Destabilisation: Prolonged conflict could spill into the Horn of Africa and Red Sea corridor, worsening insecurity.
• Political Outlook: Civilian transition appears remote; both factions remain focused on military dominance.
• Economic Collapse: Inflation above 250%, agricultural failure deepening food insecurity.
• Regional Impact: Refugee influx threatens Chad, South Sudan, and Ethiopia with cross-border instability.

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