Why in the News?

India is approaching its first inter-State Lok Sabha seat redistribution since 1976, following the end of the constitutional freeze after Census 2027. Representation is still based on the 1971 population despite India crossing 1.47 billion, creating a major imbalance. Uneven population growth could allow Uttar Pradesh and Bihar to hold over 25% of Lok Sabha seats, reshaping coalition politics and federal balance.

What is Delimitation?

1. It is a constitutional requirement following every Census to ensure equality of representation under Article 82. 
2. However, India suspended inter-State redistribution of Lok Sabha seats for nearly half a century to avoid penalising States that implemented population control. 
3. This freeze, reaffirmed by the 84th Constitutional Amendment (2001), effectively ends after Census 2027.
4. The upcoming exercise will simultaneously reallocate seats, redraw all constituencies, and operationalise 33% women’s reservation, making it a structural reset of India’s representative system.

Why is delimitation after 2027 fundamentally different from earlier exercises?

1. Frozen Representation: Maintains 1971 population ratios despite a tripling of population, undermining equal suffrage.
2. First Inter-State Redistribution Since 1976: Previous exercises only redrew internal boundaries without reallocating seats.
3. Expanded Mandate: Includes full constituency redraw, inter-State seat reallocation, and women’s reservation implementation.
4. Time Compression: Census data likely released in 2028; completion before 2031-32 is administratively improbable.

How have demographic divergences created a representation paradox?

1. Fertility Divergence: Southern and western States achieved below-replacement fertility through education and health investments.Governance Penalty: States that controlled population risk losing relative political influence.
2. Population Arithmetic: If seats are allocated purely by population in an expanded House of ~888 members:
   1. Uttar Pradesh: 80 to 151 seats
   2. Bihar: 40 to 82 seats
   3. Combined Share: ~26% of Lok Sabha
   4. Tamil Nadu: 39 to 53 seats; share declines from 7.2% to ~6%
   5. Kerala: 20 to 23 seats; share declines from 3.7% to ~2.6%

Why does expanding the Lok Sabha not resolve southern States’ concerns?

1. Absolute vs Relative Power: Parliamentary influence depends on proportion, not absolute numbers.
2. Coalition Arithmetic: Two States exceeding one-fourth of seats alters government formation dynamics.
3. Diminished Bargaining Power: Smaller and demographically stable States lose leverage despite formal seat retention.
4. Moral Paradox: Rewards demographic growth over governance outcomes.

How to manage redistribution risks?

1. Extended Freeze: Delays redistribution beyond 2026 to allow fertility convergence; risks Article 14 challenges due to unequal suffrage.
2. House Expansion: Raises Lok Sabha size to 750-888 seats; mitigates seat loss but not proportional imbalance.
3. Weighted Formula: Assigns 80% weight to population and 20% to governance indicators (literacy, health, fertility control), analogous to Finance Commission devolution.
4. Rajya Sabha Rebalancing: Strengthens federal moderation through domicile restoration and restructured State tiers.
5. State Reorganisation: Proposes dividing Uttar Pradesh into 3-4 States (~38 seats each) to neutralise excessive dominance.
6. Phased Redistribution: Implements seat reallocation over two election cycles (2034 and 2039) to reduce political shock.

Why does procedure matter as much as formula in delimitation?

1. Institutional Design: Requires experts in demography, constitutional law, and federal studies.
2. State Participation: Meaningful State representation critical for legitimacy.
3. Transparency: Public hearings and disclosure essential to prevent distrust.
4. Reservation Sensitivity: SC/ST constituency placement involves Commission discretion and potential manipulation risks.

How could delimitation reshape India’s federal and political landscape?

1. Coalition Reconfiguration: Alters role of regional parties in government formation.
2. Federal Trust Deficit: Perceived injustice risks deepening Centre-State tensions.
3. Electoral Geography Reset: Administrative convenience, geography, and social composition gain renewed relevance.
4. Democratic Renewal or Erosion: Outcomes depend on whether equity and transparency guide the process.

Conclusion

Delimitation after Census 2027 is not merely a technical exercise but a constitutional moment that will redefine representation, federal balance, and democratic fairness. Its legitimacy will depend on whether the process balances population equality with federal equity, ensuring that States are not politically disadvantaged for achieving governance and demographic stability.

PYQ Relevance

[UPSC 2024] What changes has the Union Government recently introduced in the domain of Centre-State relations? Suggest measures to build trust between the Centre and the States and for strengthening federalism.

Linkage: Post-2027 delimitation may alter Centre-State relations by shifting political power among States based on population growth. Trust can be strengthened through a transparent, phased process that protects federal balance and rewards responsible governance.

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