Introduction

India’s climate commitments under the Paris Agreement reflect the principle of Common but Differentiated Responsibilities, balancing development imperatives with environmental responsibility. While headline indicators show substantial compliance, deeper analysis reveals incomplete decoupling between growth and emissions, structural dependence on coal, and gaps between capacity creation and actual decarbonisation outcomes.

Why in the News?

India has recorded significant progress on climate metrics such as emissions intensity reduction and non-fossil power capacity expansion. Emissions intensity declined by nearly 36% between 2005 and 2020, placing India ahead of its 2030 target of 33-35% reduction. Installed non-fossil capacity crossed 40% of total capacity, achieving a Paris commitment nearly a decade early. However, absolute emissions continue to rise, forest carbon sinks remain overstated, and renewable capacity has not proportionally translated into electricity generation. The divergence between numerical targets and real climate outcomes makes this a critical inflection point.

Has India Successfully Reduced Its Emissions Intensity?

1. Emissions Intensity Reduction: Declined by approximately 36% from 2005 to 2020, exceeding the 2030 target of 33-35%.
2. Comparative Performance: Intensity decline outperforms most G20 peers despite lower per-capita emissions.
3. Structural Drivers: Renewable capacity expansion, efficiency improvements in power generation, and sectoral shifts towards services.
4. Limitation: Intensity reduction masks rising absolute emissions due to economic expansion.

Why Do Absolute Emissions Continue to Rise?

1. Incomplete Decoupling: GDP growth has outpaced emissions growth, but emissions have not declined in absolute terms.
2. Emission Levels: Territorial greenhouse gas emissions stood at ~2,959 MtCO₂e in 2020 and continue to increase.
3. Sectoral Divergence: Power sector emissions grow faster than industrial emissions due to coal dependence.
4. Policy Implication: Intensity-based targets delay hard choices on fossil fuel phase-down.

Has Renewable Capacity Expansion Translated into Clean Power Generation?

1. Installed Capacity: Non-fossil capacity crossed 40% by 2025, nearly ten years ahead of schedule.
2. Generation Share: Non-fossil generation remains substantially lower due to grid constraints and intermittency.
3. Coal Dominance: India retains 253 GW of coal-based capacity, providing baseload power.
4. Curtailment Losses: Grid congestion and state-level regulatory bottlenecks limit renewable utilisation.
5. Storage Gap: Against a projected requirement of 336 GWh of storage by 2029-30, only 500 MW of battery storage is operational as of September 2025.

Are Forest-Based Carbon Sink Targets Credible?

1. Official Claim: India reports 30.43 billion tonnes of CO₂ equivalent forest carbon stock.
2. 2030 Target: Additional 2.5-3 billion tonnes CO₂e sequestration through forests.
3. Measurement Issue: Forest Survey of India defines “forest cover” as land above one hectare with over 10% canopy, including plantations and monocultures.
4. Satellite Evidence: Natural forest cover increased only 156 sq km between 2015-2023, while recorded forest cover rose by over 75,000 sq km.
5. CAMPA Utilisation: Of ₹95,000 crore available, only 23% utilised between 2019-20 and 2023-24.
6. Policy Risk: Over-reliance on plantations weakens biodiversity and long-term carbon stability.

Why Does the Gap Persist Between Targets and Outcomes?

1. Capacity vs Output Gap: Renewable installations do not proportionately increase clean electricity generation.
2. Grid Infrastructure Deficit: Transmission, balancing capacity, and storage expansion lag behind capacity addition.
3. Policy Fragmentation: Climate governance prioritises accounting compliance over ecological restoration.
4. Administrative Frictions: Delays in land acquisition, approvals, and state coordination limit execution.

What Are the Critical Challenges Ahead?

1. Coal Lock-in: Continued investment in coal infrastructure constrains long-term decarbonisation.
2. Storage Scaling: Energy transition hinges on rapid deployment of battery and pumped storage.
3. Data Transparency: Overstated forest metrics undermine credibility of carbon sink commitments.
4. Climate Stress: Rising heatwaves and water stress challenge forest productivity and carbon assimilation.

Conclusion

India has delivered on quantified climate commitments but remains short of achieving ecological transformation. The next phase requires shifting from intensity-led compliance to outcome-oriented decarbonisation through coal phase-down, grid modernisation, credible carbon accounting, and governance reform.

PYQ Relevance

[UPSC 2021] Describe the major outcome of the 26th session of the Conference of Parties [COP] to the United Nations Framework conversation on climate change [UNFCCC]. What are the commitments made by India in this conference.

Linkage: This question links to the article’s evaluation of India’s COP-26 commitments, showing that while emissions intensity reduction and non-fossil capacity targets are being met, absolute emissions continue to rise. It highlights the UPSC focus on assessing climate pledges against actual outcomes, especially coal dependence and gaps in real decarbonisation.

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