Needed: A sustained decline in emissions

Why in the News

The latest Global Carbon Budget study forecasts a slight fall in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from fossil fuel burning this year. The study was presented at the 31st Conference of the Parties (COP31) to the United Nations climate convention in Antalya, Turkey. The fall comes largely from an energy shock, not from a lasting shift, and India’s fossil fuel emissions are still rising.

What is the Global Carbon Budget, and what does it forecast?

1. What it is: The Global Carbon Budget is a yearly scientific count of the carbon dioxide the world releases, led by an office at the University of Exeter. It works like an annual carbon account.
2. Fossil fuel forecast: The study forecasts a slight decline in emissions from fossil fuel burning this year compared to 2025.
3. Causes of the fall: The drop results largely from two things: the energy shock, a sudden disruption in fuel supply triggered by the Iran war, and the wider use of wind and solar power.
4. Large emitters: China, the world’s largest emitter, is expected to record a fall of nearly 1%. The United States, Europe and Japan are also projected to see declines.
5. The takeaway: A fall caused mainly by a supply shock can reverse when the shock ends, so it does not show that emissions have peaked.

Why is a one year fall not enough?

1. Earlier dips: Shocks have reduced fossil fuel use before, and each fall lasted a single year:
   • geopolitical upheavals and economic disruptions in 1992 and 1998;
   • a similar disruption in 2009;
   • the Covid pandemic in 2020.
2. Better economics for renewables: Energy economics favours renewables more today than in the pandemic years.
3. Sustained decline: Much more is needed to make emissions fall year after year.

Why is India an outlier?

1. Rising emissions: India’s fossil fuel emissions are estimated to rise by more than 4% this year over last year.
2. Capacity without full use: India has registered impressive growth in installed renewable energy capacity. Storage shortfalls and inadequate grid infrastructure stand in the way of optimal use of that energy.
3. Surplus that is lost: Generation is abundant when the sun shines and winds blow. Much of that surplus cannot be used later because it cannot be stored.
4. Weak utility finances: Power distribution companies (discoms) need to upgrade their infrastructure to absorb renewable power. Their poor financial health and long standing funding deficits are a hurdle.

Why will renewable energy alone not contain warming?

1. Deforestation and land use: The fall in fossil fuel emissions will be offset by rising emissions from deforestation and land use change, particularly in Southeast Asia.
2. Peat fires: Dry conditions linked to the Super El Nino, an unusually strong warming of the Pacific Ocean, raise the risk of worse peat fires in the coming weeks. Peat fires burn carbon rich soil.
3. Total emissions: Total carbon emissions are expected to rise from 42.8 billion tonnes last year to 43.3 billion tonnes this year.

Challenges

1. Rebound risk: Emissions rose again after earlier shocks once fuel supply and demand recovered.
2. Coal based power: Coal still supplies most of India’s electricity, so rising power demand raises emissions.
3. Costly storage: Battery and pumped storage projects need large upfront capital, which slows their addition.
4. Forest and peatland loss: Demand for land drives the loss of forests and peatlands, which energy policy does not address.

Way Forward

1. Transition pathway: COP31 should chart a pathway for a just transition away from fossil fuels, one that protects workers and regions dependent on them.
2. Carbon sinks: COP31 should push countries to halt the depletion of carbon sinks, the forests and soils that absorb carbon.
3. Power company finances: The Centre and States should reopen the question of power company finances, so that discoms can fund grid upgrades.
4. Storage and transmission: India should add storage and transmission capacity alongside new solar and wind plants.

Conclusion

A fall in fossil fuel emissions that depends on a crisis is not yet a sustained decline. The outcome to watch is whether COP31 agrees a transition pathway and whether India removes the storage, grid and utility finance constraints on its renewable capacity.

Matching Previous Year Question

“[2022, GS3, 15 marks] Do you think India will meet 50 percent of its energy needs from renewable energy by 2030 ? Justify your answer. How will the shift of subsidies from fossil fuels to renewables help achieve the above objective? Explain.”