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Subject: Climate Change

1. Global Warming and Issues
2. All about Pollution

  • Losing forest for trees: India is counting trees when it should be restoring forests

    Why in the News

    A performance audit by the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) of the Green India Mission (GIM) has found that across a decade the Mission improved forest quality over only 0.11 million hectares against a target of 1.4 million hectares, and achieved barely 4 per cent of its forest cover expansion goal. The Mission was designed as ecological restoration, and it has been displaced in practice by a sapling planting drive whose success is measured in trees planted rather than in forest restored. The India State of Forest Report 2023 records a green cover gain of 1,445 sq km, of which only 156 sq km is true forest.

    What is the Green India Mission?

    1. What it is: A national mission of the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change aimed at protecting, restoring and enhancing India’s forest cover and at responding to climate change through adaptation and mitigation.
    2. Where it sits: It is one of the eight pillars of the National Action Plan on Climate Change, unveiled in 2008.
    3. Its climate function: It is the instrument through which India promised the Paris Agreement an additional carbon sink of 2.5 billion to 3 billion tonnes by 2030.
    4. Its animating idea: The objective is ecological, covering biodiversity, water, carbon sequestration and the revival of habitat, not the raising of tree numbers.
    5. Its twin physical targets: The Mission set out to increase forest and tree cover on one block of land and to improve the quality of existing forest cover on another.
    6. Its funding design: It was built to draw money and labour from other programmes rather than from its own budget line alone.

    What is the Compensatory Afforestation Fund Management and Planning Authority?

    1. What it is: The statutory authority, known as CAMPA, that manages funds collected from industry and other user agencies in return for the diversion of forest land to non forest use.
    2. What it funds: The money is channelled into afforestation, catchment treatment and habitat improvement, which is why the Green India Mission was designed to converge with it.

    What is tree cover outside recorded forests?

    1. What it is: Tree patches smaller than one hectare and trees standing outside the legally recorded forest area, counted separately from forest cover in the national forest assessment.
    2. Why the distinction matters: A plantation, an orchard or an avenue of trees adds to this category without adding to forest, so a rise in green cover can occur while forest itself stagnates.

    What is Ek Ped Maa Ke Naam?

    1. What it is: A tree plantation campaign launched in 2024, translated as A Tree in the Name of Mother, under which the government reports planting 140 crore saplings so far.
    2. Its effect on the Mission: For practical purposes it has replaced the Green India Mission as the visible face of India’s forest effort.

    What did the Comptroller and Auditor General audit find?

    1. Forest quality improvement: Against a target of improving forest quality over 1.4 million hectares, the Mission managed 0.11 million hectares, less than a tenth of the target.
    2. Forest cover expansion: On expanding forest cover the Mission achieved barely four per cent of its goal.
    3. Recorded shortfall on quality: The audit records a shortfall of about 91.87 per cent against the forest quality improvement target over ten years.
    4. Recorded shortfall on cover: The audit records a shortfall of about 97.57 per cent against the forest cover target over the same period.
    5. Coverage of the audit: The performance audit examined implementation across 16 States and Union Territories.
    6. Money actually received: Only about Rs 1,149.14 crore of budgetary support reached the Mission over the audited decade.
    7. Convergence not achieved: The Mission’s intended convergence with its partner schemes did not materialise.
    8. The overall verdict: A scheme conceived to heal India’s forests achieved almost nothing it set out to do across a decade.

    Why did the Mission’s convergence with other funding streams fail?

    1. The CAMPA channel: CAMPA holds money collected from industry for diverting forest land into afforestation, and that money did not flow into Mission activity as designed.
    2. The wage labour channel: The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, rebranded VB G RAM G, funds rural wage labour that can be used for plantation and land restoration works.
    3. What convergence was meant to do: The Mission’s own budget line was small by design, so its physical targets depended on borrowing funds and labour from these two much larger streams.
    4. What happened instead: The convergence never materialised, which left the Mission with a decadal target set for one scale of resources and an actual allocation of a different scale.
    5. The consequence for accountability: A mission that does not control its own money cannot be held to its own targets, and no single agency owns the shortfall.
    6. The displacement effect: With convergence absent, the plantation drive absorbed the political attention and the reporting space that restoration was meant to occupy.

    What does the India State of Forest Report 2023 show about the quality of the gain?

    1. The headline gain: The report records a gain of 1,445 sq km in green cover.
    2. The forest share of that gain: Only 156 sq km of that gain is true forest.
    3. The remainder: The other 1,289 sq km is tree cover outside recorded forests.
    4. Inside the recorded forests: Dense canopy within recorded forest area is thinning into scrub.
    5. What the two numbers together establish: India is planting more and foresting less, so an aggregate green cover figure conceals a decline in forest quality.
    6. Why this matters for the carbon pledge: A carbon sink commitment measured in billions of tonnes rests on dense forest, not on scattered tree cover that stores far less carbon per hectare.

    Why does the Aravalli Green Wall illustrate the limits of planting?

    1. The state of the range: The Aravallis are among the country’s most degraded ranges, with hillocks quarried away over decades.
    2. The invasion: Native growth has been overrun by the invasive vilayati kikar (Prosopis juliflora), which suppresses regeneration of native species.
    3. The proposed remedy: The range is now to be rescued by a Green Wall of fresh planting.
    4. What planting cannot do, first: Fresh saplings cannot undo the damage left by years of mining and the removal of the hill itself.
    5. What planting cannot do, second: Planting does not halt encroachment on the range, which is a land use and enforcement problem.
    6. What planting cannot do, third: An ecosystem that took millennia to assemble cannot be summoned back by a plantation drive.
    7. The governing distinction: Restoration rebuilds the ecological function of a landscape, and landscaping only adds vegetation to it.

    Where does counting trees diverge from restoring forests?

    1. Two different outputs: A sapling planted is a countable annual output. A restored forest is a slow change in canopy density, species composition and soil.
    2. Two different timelines: Planting reports results within a financial year, and restoration shows results across decades, which biases the system toward planting.
    3. Two different failure modes: Plantation failure shows up as sapling mortality that is rarely audited. Restoration failure shows up in the forest report, as it has in 2023.
    4. The metric drives the money: With 140 crore saplings as the reported achievement and 0.11 million hectares as the restored area, the reporting system rewards the activity that is easiest to count.
    5. Species and structure are lost in the count: A count of trees is indifferent to whether the trees are native, whether they form a canopy, and whether they support the species the forest once held.
    6. The ecological cost of the substitution: Biodiversity, groundwater recharge and habitat revival, the Mission’s stated objectives, do not follow automatically from a higher tree count.

    What can an audit of this kind not capture?

    1. The instrument is accountancy: The audit counts hectares and rupees, and it cannot count the worth of a living forest.
    2. Ecological value is not a line item: Pollination, water regulation, soil stabilisation and habitat quality have no entry in a financial performance table.
    3. Implementation reality: The assessment cannot always capture the practical difficulties of running a mission across State forest departments with varying capacity.
    4. Time lag in forest outcomes: Restoration works undertaken late in the audit period cannot show measurable results within it.
    5. Why the verdict still stands: Even on its own limited terms, an achievement of four per cent against a cover target and a tenth of a quality target is a failure of implementation, not a measurement artefact.
    6. What the audit does establish: The mission designed to restore India’s forests was allowed to wither while the state busied itself counting trees.

    Challenges to the Green India Mission

    1. Sapling survival is not tracked: Plantation drives report numbers planted and rarely report survival after three years. e.g. successive State plantation drives reporting crore scale planting with no published third year survival audit.
    2. Monoculture and exotic species: Plantations favour fast growing and commercially useful species over native mixed forest, which limits habitat value. e.g. eucalyptus and acacia blocks raised on degraded common land in Karnataka and Gujarat.
    3. Land availability for restoration: The Mission needs degraded forest land free of competing claims, and much of it carries grazing, cultivation and settlement use. e.g. contested village common land in the Aravalli belt of Haryana and Rajasthan.
    4. Forest rights not settled first: Restoration works on land where individual and community claims under forest rights law remain undecided create conflict with forest dwellers. e.g. pending community forest resource claims across central Indian districts.
    5. Invasive species suppress regeneration: Restoration on invaded land fails unless the invasive is removed first, which is costlier than planting. e.g. Prosopis juliflora in the Aravallis and Lantana camara across central Indian forests.
    6. Weak convergence architecture: The Mission depends on funds controlled by other schemes with their own targets and reporting cycles. e.g. CAMPA balances lying unspent with State authorities while Mission works waited for money.
    7. Staffing and capacity in forest departments: Frontline forest staff vacancies limit the supervision that assisted natural regeneration requires. e.g. large vacancy levels in forest guard and forester posts reported by several State forest departments.
    8. Diversion continues alongside restoration: Forest land continues to be diverted for infrastructure while restoration targets are missed, so the net position worsens. e.g. compensatory afforestation for the Ken Betwa link inside the Panna landscape.
    9. Green cover accounting conflates categories: Counting orchards, plantations and avenue trees within green cover masks the loss of dense natural forest. e.g. the 1,289 sq km of tree cover outside recorded forests in the 2023 assessment.

    Conclusion

    India has substituted a countable output, saplings planted, for the objective it actually set itself, which is restored forest, and the audit records the cost of that substitution across a decade. The Green India Mission failed not because restoration is unachievable but because it was starved of money, denied the convergence it was designed around, and displaced by a drive that reports faster numbers. Until forest quality, canopy density and sapling survival replace planting counts as the reported metric, the Paris carbon sink commitment will rest on an inflated green cover figure. The instrument exists and the finance does not follow it.

    Forest Cover and Restoration in India

    1. What forest cover means: All land more than one hectare in area with a tree canopy density of more than 10 per cent, irrespective of ownership or legal status.
    2. The assessment: The Forest Survey of India, Dehradun, publishes the India State of Forest Report every two years using satellite data and field inventory.
    3. The national scale: Total forest and tree cover is about 8,27,357 sq km, which is about 25.17 per cent of the geographical area, per the 2023 assessment.
    4. The split: Forest cover is about 7,15,343 sq km, or 21.76 per cent, and tree cover about 1,12,014 sq km, or 3.41 per cent.
    5. The policy target: The National Forest Policy, 1988 sets a goal of 33 per cent of the geographical area under forest and tree cover.
    6. The canopy classes: Forest cover is classed as very dense forest, moderately dense forest and open forest, by canopy density bands.
    7. The international commitment: India has committed to restoring 26 million hectares of degraded land by 2030, a pledge raised from an earlier 21 million hectare commitment under the Bonn Challenge.
    8. The climate commitment: India’s nationally determined contribution promises an additional carbon sink of 2.5 billion to 3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent through additional forest and tree cover by 2030.
    9. Why restoration differs from afforestation: Restoration rebuilds a degraded ecosystem’s native composition and function, and afforestation only establishes trees on land, often with a single species.

    Constitutional Framework Governing Forests and the Environment

    1. Article 48A: Directs the State to protect and improve the environment and to safeguard the forests and wildlife of the country.
    2. Article 51A(g): Places a fundamental duty on every citizen to protect and improve the natural environment including forests, lakes, rivers and wildlife.
    3. Article 21: Protects life and personal liberty, read by the courts to include the right to a clean and healthy environment.
    4. Seventh Schedule, Concurrent List Entry 17A: Places forests on the Concurrent List after the 42nd Constitutional Amendment, 1976.
    5. Seventh Schedule, Concurrent List Entry 17B: Places protection of wild animals and birds on the Concurrent List.
    6. Article 253: Empowers Parliament to legislate to implement international agreements, the basis for environmental laws giving effect to treaty commitments.
    7. Article 244 and the Fifth Schedule: Provide for administration of Scheduled Areas, which overlap substantially with India’s forest landscapes.
    8. Article 243ZD and Part IX: Place village level planning with Panchayats, the base for Gram Sabha consultation in forest areas.

    Laws and Rules Governing Forests and Compensatory Afforestation

    1. Indian Forest Act, 1927: Consolidates the law on forests, the transit of forest produce and the duty leviable on it, and provides for reserved, protected and village forests.
    2. Key feature: It creates the categories of legally recorded forest against which forest cover is measured.
    3. Forest (Conservation) Act, 1980: Requires prior approval of the Union government for the diversion of forest land to non forest use.
    4. 2023 amendment: Renamed the Act the Van (Sanrakshan Evam Samvardhan) Adhiniyam, 1980 and exempted specified categories of land and projects from prior approval.
    5. Compensatory Afforestation Fund Act, 2016: Establishes the National and State Compensatory Afforestation Funds and the authorities that manage them.
    6. Rules, 2018: Set out the procedure for utilisation of the accumulated fund for afforestation, catchment treatment and wildlife management.
    7. Scheduled Tribes and Other Traditional Forest Dwellers (Recognition of Forest Rights) Act, 2006: Recognises individual and community forest rights and requires Gram Sabha consent for diversion.
    8. Wildlife (Protection) Act, 1972: Governs protected areas, and restricts activities inside national parks, sanctuaries, conservation reserves and tiger reserves.
    9. Environment (Protection) Act, 1986: The umbrella law under which environmental clearance, eco sensitive zone notifications and emission standards are issued.
    10. National Green Tribunal Act, 2010: Creates a specialised tribunal for environmental disputes, including challenges to forest diversion and afforestation failures.
    11. Biological Diversity Act, 2002: Provides for conservation of biological diversity and the constitution of biodiversity management committees at the local level.

    “[2016] Which of the following best describes/ describe the aim of ‘Green India Mission’ of the Government of India?
    1. Incorporating environmental benefits and costs into the Union and State Budgets thereby implementing the ‘green accounting’
    2. Launching the second green revolution to enhance agricultural output so as to ensure food security to one and all in the future
    3. Restoring and enhancing forest cover and responding to climate change by a combination of adaptation and mitigation measures
    Select the correct answer using the code given below.
    (a) 1 only
    (b) 2 and 3 only
    (c) 3 only
    (d) 1, 2 and 3

  • India’s Green Mission in Trouble? CAG Flags Major Lapses

    Why in the News

    A Comptroller and Auditor General audit of the Green India Mission across 16 states and union territories found a 91.87 per cent shortfall against its forest quality improvement target and a 97.57 per cent shortfall against its forest cover target over ten years. The mission received Rs 1,149.14 crore, or 47.88 per cent, of the budgetary support it was to get. The tension is between a mission carrying India’s forest carbon sink commitment and a funding and convergence design that never materialised.

    What is the Green India Mission?

    1. About: The Green India Mission is one of the eight missions under the National Action Plan on Climate Change, launched in 2014 by the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change.
    2. Twin targets: Increasing forest and tree cover on 5 million hectares, and improving the quality of forest cover on another 5 million hectares.
    3. Design principle: The mission was to work through convergence with existing schemes rather than through a large standalone budget.
    4. Climate function: It carries the forestry component of India’s Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement.

    What did the audit find on physical targets?

    1. Quality improvement: Forest cover quality improved on only 0.11384 million hectares against a 1.4 million hectare target, a shortfall of 91.87 per cent.
    2. Cover increase: Forest cover increased on only 0.03409 million hectares against a 1.4 million hectare target, a shortfall of 97.57 per cent.
    3. Audit period: The audit covered 2015-16 to 2024-25 across 16 states and union territories.
    4. Accounting failure: Eight states and union territories did not maintain annual accounts for the mission.

    Why did the funding architecture fail?

    1. Proposed requirement: The mission’s proposed funding requirement was Rs 40,600 crore.
    2. What was approved: The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs approved Rs 2,000 crore for the first four years, alongside Rs 400 crore from Thirteenth Finance Commission grants.
    3. What was received: Only Rs 1,149.14 crore, or 47.88 per cent of even that reduced budgetary support, reached the mission over ten years.
    4. Structural consequence: A mission funded at under 3 per cent of its assessed requirement could not deliver targets set against the full requirement.

    Why did convergence not happen?

    1. Intended partners: Convergence was planned with the Compensatory Afforestation Fund Management and Planning Authority, the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, the Nagar Van Yojana and the School Nursery Yojana.
    2. What the audit found: These schemes operated in silos, and convergence was not achieved.
    3. Design dependence: The mission’s low budget was justified on the assumption that convergence would supply the resources, so the failure of convergence removed the funding basis entirely.
    4. Accountability gap: No single authority was answerable for delivering convergence across ministries.

    What does this mean for India’s climate commitment?

    1. The commitment: India’s Nationally Determined Contribution includes creating an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2030 through additional forest and tree cover.
    2. Delivery vehicle: The Green India Mission is the principal instrument for the forestry component of that commitment.
    3. Arithmetic problem: Cover added on 0.03409 million hectares cannot support a sink target premised on 5 million hectares.
    4. Reporting risk: The gap between the reported forest cover figures and the audited mission achievement raises a measurement question about what counts as forest cover.

    Challenges to India’s afforestation programmes

    1. Plantation survival rates: Trees planted are counted, trees surviving are not. e.g. audits repeatedly finding low survival in compensatory afforestation plantations.
    2. Monoculture plantation: Fast growing single species plantations raise canopy cover without restoring biodiversity. e.g. eucalyptus and acacia plantations counted as forest cover gains.
    3. Definition of forest cover: The forest survey definition counts any land above one hectare with over 10 per cent canopy, including plantations and orchards. e.g. commercial plantations appearing as forest cover increases.
    4. Compensatory afforestation land shortage: States lack non forest land of the required extent to compensate diversion. e.g. the accumulation of unspent Compensatory Afforestation Fund balances before the 2016 Act.
    5. Community rights friction: Plantation on land under claim conflicts with recognised forest rights. e.g. disputes over plantation drives on land claimed under the Forest Rights Act, 2006.
    6. Convergence without an owner: Cross ministry convergence has no accountable authority. e.g. the Green India Mission’s four named partner schemes operating in silos through the audit period.

    Conclusion

    The mission failed because its target was set against an assessed requirement of Rs 40,600 crore while its funding was built on a convergence assumption that no authority was made accountable for delivering. The shortfall is therefore a design failure rather than an implementation lapse. The next milestone is whether the government restructures the mission’s funding or restates the forestry component of the Nationally Determined Contribution.

    Back2Basics: National Action Plan on Climate Change

    1. Launched in 2008 to outline India’s strategy on climate adaptation and mitigation.
    2. Comprises eight national missions: Solar, Enhanced Energy Efficiency, Sustainable Habitat, Water, Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem, Green India, Sustainable Agriculture, and Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change.
    3. Coordinated by the Prime Minister’s Council on Climate Change.
    4. States prepare State Action Plans on Climate Change aligned to the national missions.
    5. The Green India Mission was approved by the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs in 2014 with a mandate covering 10 million hectares in total.

    Government Initiatives

    1. Compensatory Afforestation Fund Act, 2016: Governs the use of funds collected for forest land diversion, with a national authority and state authorities managing the corpus.
    2. Nagar Van Yojana: Supports the creation of urban forests on forest or other land within municipal limits, targeting city residents and local bodies.
    3. National Mission for a Green India: Targets 5 million hectares of new cover and 5 million hectares of quality improvement.
    4. Mission LiFE: Promotes individual and community behaviour change on sustainable consumption.
    5. School Nursery Yojana: Engages schools in raising seedlings to build a nursery base and environmental awareness.

    Way Forward

    1. Fund the mission against its assessed requirement: Close the gap between the Rs 40,600 crore requirement and the Rs 1,149.14 crore released, or restate the targets.
    2. Appoint an accountable convergence authority: Name one authority answerable for delivering convergence across the four partner schemes.
    3. Report survival, not planting: Measure achievement through third party verified survival after three years, not through saplings planted.
    4. Separate plantation from natural forest in reporting: Report plantation area distinctly from natural forest cover so the carbon sink claim is verifiable.
    5. Enforce annual accounts: Make release of the next instalment conditional on maintained annual accounts, since eight states did not maintain them.

    “[2016] Which of the following best describes/ describe the aim of ‘Green India Mission’ of the Government of India?

    1. Incorporating environmental benefits and costs into the Union and State Budgets thereby implementing the ‘green accounting’

    2. Launching the second green revolution to enhance agricultural output so as to ensure food security to one and all in the future

    3. Restoring and enhancing forest cover and responding to climate change by a combination of adaptation and mitigation measures

    Select the correct answer using the code given below.

    (a) 1 only

    (b) 2 and 3 only

    (c) 3 only

    (d) 1, 2 and 3

  • New study finds global warming is accelerating, with the 1.5 degree Celsius breach projected by 2030

    Why in the News

    A study in the journal Geophysical Research Letters reports evidence that global warming is accelerating, not merely continuing. After removing natural noise from five temperature datasets, the authors find the last decade warmed faster than any previous decade on record, and project the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold being breached by 2030.

    What is the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold?

    1. Paris target: Under the Paris Agreement, 2015, countries agreed to hold warming well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
    2. Why 1.5 matters: Beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius, risks of extreme heat, sea level rise, and ecosystem collapse rise sharply, making it the central guardrail of climate policy.

    What are aerosols and the masking effect?

    1. Aerosols: Aerosols are tiny particles from sources such as burning fossil fuels that reflect sunlight and exert a cooling effect on the atmosphere.
    2. How cooling works: Light-colored particles bounce sunlight back into space and help make clouds brighter, which lowers temperatures.
    3. The cooling mask: This pollution has acted like an invisible shield, hiding a portion of the total heat trapped by greenhouse gases
    4. Unmasking: As pollution controls cut aerosols, their cooling effect fades and the full warming from greenhouse gases is felt, an effect the study describes as a disappearing cooling mask.

    Why is measuring acceleration difficult?

    1. Noisy temperatures: Global temperatures fluctuate year to year because of natural factors like volcanic eruptions and changes in solar activity. (Volcano noise includes the seismic vibrations, audible sounds, and infrasound produced by subsurface magma movement, degassing, and eruptions. Solar noise refers to intense bursts of radio waves and energetic emissions naturally broadcast by the Sun.)
    2. Masked trend: These events can temporarily hide the underlying human caused warming, making it hard to prove the rate itself is rising.

    How did the study establish acceleration?

    1. Multiple datasets: The authors analysed five major global temperature datasets to avoid relying on any single record.
    2. Statistical subtraction: They used statistical methods to remove the influence of volcanic and solar noise, isolating the human driven trend.
    3. High confidence: After removing the noise, they were more than 98% certain the jump in warming rate was real rather than a short lived fluctuation, dating the change to around 2015.
    4. Timing: This change or acceleration in the rate of warming was identified to have begun around
      2015 .

    Why does the faster pace matter?

    1. Shrinking timeline: Under the earlier, slower rate, the world expected more time before breaching 1.5 degrees Celsius, and the accelerated pace brings the breach forward to 2030.
    2. Twin drivers: Greenhouse gas emissions remain the primary cause, while falling aerosol pollution adds to the acceleration.

    What are the challenges to limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius?

    1. Continued emissions growth: Global carbon dioxide emissions remain near record highs, driven by fossil fuel use in power, industry, and transport.
    2. Aerosol paradox: Cutting air pollution saves lives but removes a cooling effect, accelerating near term warming.
    3. Shrinking carbon budget: The remaining budget consistent with 1.5 degrees Celsius is small and shrinks with every year of high emissions.
    4. Slow energy transition: Renewable growth has not yet displaced fossil fuels fast enough to cut absolute emissions.
    5. Feedback loops: Melting ice, thawing permafrost, and forest loss release additional carbon and reduce reflectivity, reinforcing warming.
    6. Finance and equity gaps: Developing countries lack the finance and technology transfer needed to decarbonise while meeting development needs.

    Conclusion

    The study reframes the problem from steady warming to an accelerating one, advancing the likely 1.5 degree Celsius breach to 2030. The central unresolved issue is that cleaning the air removes a cooling shield, so only deep and sustained cuts in greenhouse gases can slow the pace.

    Back2Basics:

    Paris Agreement

    1. Adopted: 2015 at the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21), entering into force in 2016.
    2. Convening body: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
    3. Core goal: Limit warming well below 2 degrees Celsius, pursuing 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre industrial levels.
    4. Mechanism: Nationally Determined Contributions, updated every five years, with a global stocktake to assess collective progress.

    PYQ Relevance

    [UPSC 2022] Discuss global warming and mention its effects on the global climate. Explain the control measures to bring down the level of greenhouse gases which cause global warming, in the light of the Kyoto Protocol, 1997.

    Linkage: The question examines the causes, impacts and mitigation of global warming through international climate frameworks. The article adds recent evidence that global warming is accelerating, highlighting the need for faster emission cuts to achieve Paris Agreement goals.

  • Climate whiplash, fire clouds: factors fuelling Europe’s wildfires

    Why in the News?

    Severe wildfires have swept across Greece, France, Spain, Portugal and Italy, driven by climate whiplash, pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) clouds, and prolonged heatwaves, highlighting the growing impact of climate change.

    Key Concepts

    Climate Whiplash

    • Rapid shift between extreme wet and dry conditions.
    • Wet periods promote vegetation growth, while subsequent heatwaves dry it into highly flammable fuel.

    Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) Clouds

    • Fire-generated thunderstorm clouds formed by intense wildfire heat.
    • Can reach the stratosphere, generate lightning and strong winds, creating new fires.

    Sixth-Generation Wildfires

    • Extremely intense wildfires driven by heatwaves and prolonged drought.
    • Difficult to control using conventional firefighting methods.

    Why are Europe’s Wildfires Becoming More Severe?

    • Climate whiplash increases fuel availability.
    • PyroCb clouds spread fires through lightning and erratic winds.
    • Rural land abandonment has increased combustible vegetation.
    • Rising temperatures and prolonged droughts intensify fire conditions.

    Impacts

    • Loss of lives, forests and biodiversity.
    • Declining air quality across large regions.
    • Increased carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, accelerating climate change.
    • Annual economic losses of about €2.5 billion in the European Union (EU).

    [2026] Consider the following statements with reference to India’s response to climate change:

    I. India’s LT-LEDS is a crucial tool for achieving net-zero emissions by 2070.

    II. India’s BUR-4 (Dec 2024) recorded ~8% decrease in GHG emissions in 2020 over 2019.

    III. Climate-resilient development necessarily depends on quick and short-term achievement of emission reduction targets.

    Which of the following relationships is/are correct?

    1. Statement I is empirically supported by statement II

    2. Statement III contradicts the approach implicit in statement I

    3. Statement I and statement III together establish the premise of long-term sustainability

    (a) 1 only

    (b) 1 and 2

    (c) 2 and 3

    (d) 3 only

  • Will El Niño Weaken India’s Economy

    Why in the News?

    India’s monsoon has opened with a 40% rainfall deficit in June, and the India Meteorological Department has forecast a second consecutive below-normal month in July. The forecast has revived concern that a potential “super” El Niño could damage agricultural output, rural income, and food prices. India enters this season on the back of record 2024-25 foodgrain output, which is what a poor monsoon now puts at risk.

    How does a weak monsoon transmit into the broader economy beyond agriculture?

    1. Three transmission channels: A weak monsoon damages the economy through lower agricultural output, reduced rural income, and rising food prices.
    2. Cropping pattern shift: Farmers are shifting toward pulses and away from maize and vegetables. Pulses need less water and cost less to cultivate.
    3. Irrigation-linked decision-making: Planting decisions also depend on irrigation access, MSP levels, procurement support, and market conditions.
    4. Rural non-farm contraction: Non-traded rural services such as construction contract when agricultural income falls.
    5. Early economic signals: Two-wheeler and tractor sales weaken first. Real estate demand in smaller towns and cities follows.
    6. Export exposure: Agriculture exports grew at a CAGR of 8.2% between fiscals 2020 and 2025, contributing 12% of India’s core exports. A weak kharif season threatens this growth.

    Why does a weak monsoon strain macro-fiscal and external balances even before the shortfall materialises?

    1. Fertiliser subsidy commitment: The Union Cabinet approved a ₹41,533 crore Nutrient-Based Subsidy (NBS: a fixed per-nutrient, rather than per-product, fertiliser subsidy) for phosphatic and potassic fertilisers for the kharif season, covering 28 grades.
    2. Import and buffer-stock risk: A shortfall in kharif output will force the government to release buffer stocks and import commodities. This widens the Current Account Deficit (CAD: the gap between a country’s foreign exchange outflows and inflows on the current account) and pressures the rupee.
    3. Compounding supply shock: Pest pressure and fertiliser input constraints linked to the Iran conflict are adding to cost pressure ahead of the monsoon outcome.
    4. Growth cost estimate: A combined El Niño-plus-drought scenario may shave 20 to 65 basis points off GDP growth, according to Kotak Mutual Fund.
    5. RBI’s growth-inflation warning: The Reserve Bank of India’s June bulletin flagged that an adverse south-west monsoon could weigh on the domestic growth-inflation outlook.

    Why did the 2009 and 2015 El Niño years produce such different economic outcomes despite similar monsoon failure?

    1. El Niño as an imperfect predictor: Six of the eleven below-normal or deficient monsoon years since 2000 were classified as El Niño years by the IMD. Five of these six saw deficient rainfall.
    2. 2009-10 outcome: Two consecutive years of rainfall stress, combined with all-India irrigation cover below 45%, contracted crop GVA (Gross Value Added: a sector’s contribution to national output, net of input costs) by 2.5% and 3.2% in fiscals 2009 and 2010. Inflation entered double digits.
    3. 2014-15 output impact: El Niño intensified from weak to strong across these two years. Crop GVA contracted again in both years.
    4. 2014-15 price impact: Food inflation stayed muted in 2015. This differed sharply from the double-digit inflation of 2009-10.
    5. Explanation for the divergence: Proactive food management, restrained MSP hikes, and a global commodity price slump kept 2015 inflation low.
    6. What the comparison establishes: Policy response, not rainfall severity alone, determines whether an El Niño year turns into an inflation crisis.

    How exposed is India’s irrigation and storage system to a second successive weak monsoon?

    1. Vulnerable districts: 315 districts have been flagged as vulnerable to a poor monsoon. Of these, 111 districts across 12 States are of primary concern for poor irrigation facilities.
    2. Reservoir storage shortfall: Storage across the 166 reservoirs monitored by the Central Water Commission stood at 47.725 BCM (Billion Cubic Metres) on July 2. This is below both the year-ago level of 78.077 BCM and the normal level of 48.402 BCM for this time of year.
    3. Current buffer, limited margin: The present storage position can meet requirements. A second consecutive weak monsoon would strain it.
    4. Structural irrigation gap: All-India average irrigation cover remains below 45%, the same constraint that contributed to the 2009-10 GVA contraction.

    Should India replace crop insurance with ex-ante risk reduction as its primary drought response?

    1. Limits of crop insurance: Crop insurance compensates farmers after a monsoon failure. It does not reduce their underlying exposure to rainfall variability.
    2. Ex-ante alternative: Ex-ante risk reduction requires sustained public investment in irrigation infrastructure rather than compensation after the event.
    3. Seed access gap: Drought-resistant, high-yielding seed varieties are necessary. Farmers who need them most lack access to them.
    4. Investment shortfall: Public investment in irrigation and seed access has been inadequate. This explains why agricultural disaster preparedness remains poor.

    Conclusion

    A weak monsoon does not automatically translate into an economic crisis. The 2009 and 2015 El Niño years show that policy response, not rainfall alone, determines the scale of the damage. India’s current toolkit remains weighted toward reactive measures, crop insurance, buffer stock release, price management, rather than ex-ante investment in irrigation and drought-resistant seed. Until public investment shifts from compensating farmers after a bad monsoon to reducing their exposure to it, each El Niño year will continue to test the same vulnerabilities: rainfed districts, thin irrigation cover, and reservoirs running below normal.

    PYQ Relevance

    [UPSC 2023] Discuss the consequences of climate change on the food security in tropical countries.

    Linkage: The PYQ assesses the relationship between climate variability, agriculture and food security. El Niño-induced rainfall deficits directly threaten crop production, food security, rural livelihoods and agricultural sustainability, making this PYQ conceptually relevant.

  • Salt Marsh Restoration on Oléron Island

    Why in News?

    The revival of the traditional salt harvesting profession on Oléron Island, France, is gaining attention as restored salt marshes help protect coastal areas from the increasing impacts of climate change, especially marine flooding.

    Key Highlights

    • The profession of salt worker disappeared from Oléron Island in the 1980s but has been revived with support from local authorities.
    • Salt marshes are being restored not only for salt production but also as a nature-based solution for climate adaptation.
    • These marshes act as buffer zones, reducing the impact of coastal flooding and storm surges.
    • Climate change has increased the frequency and intensity of marine flooding, making coastal ecosystem restoration increasingly important.

    What are Salt Marshes?

    • Salt marshes are coastal wetlands found in the intertidal zone between land and sea.
    • They are regularly flooded by seawater during high tides.
    • They are dominated by salt-tolerant (halophytic) vegetation such as grasses, sedges, and shrubs.
    • Salt marshes commonly occur in estuaries, lagoons, deltas, and sheltered coastlines.

    Ecological Importance

    • Act as natural buffers, reducing the impact of storm surges and coastal erosion.
    • Absorb and store excess floodwater, lowering flood risks.
    • Trap sediments and improve water quality.
    • Serve as breeding and nursery grounds for fish, crustaceans, and migratory birds.
    • Store large amounts of blue carbon, helping mitigate climate change.

    What is Blue Carbon?

    • Blue carbon refers to carbon captured and stored by coastal and marine ecosystems such as: Mangroves, Salt marshes, and Seagrass meadows
    • These ecosystems sequester carbon in both vegetation and underlying sediments for long periods.

    Threats to Salt Marshes

    • Coastal development and land reclamation.
    • Sea level rise due to climate change.
    • Pollution and eutrophication.
    • Conversion for agriculture and aquaculture.
    • Alteration of natural tidal flows.

    Relevance for India

    • India has significant coastal wetlands, including mangroves, salt marshes, mudflats, and seagrass meadows, which play a crucial role in coastal protection and climate resilience.
    • Restoration of these ecosystems supports India’s commitments under the Ramsar Convention, National Coastal Mission, and climate adaptation strategies.

    [2021] What is blue carbon?

    [A] Carbon captured by oceans and coastal ecosystems

    [B] Carbon sequestered in forest biomass and agricultural soils

    [C] Carbon contained in petroleum and natural gas

    [D] Carbon present in atmosphere

  • Behind Europe’s heatwave, cliamte change the culprit

    Why in the News?

    A World Weather Attribution (WWA) study has confirmed climate change as the unequivocal cause of the ongoing European heatwave, which has broken or is forecast to break historic heat-stress records in 45% of 854 cities analysed. The finding sharpens a wider gap between the certainty climate science now offers and the declining political priority accorded to climate action.

    What does the WWA study establish about the causal role of climate change in the current heatwave?

    1. Unequivocal attribution: WWA found climate change, not the El Niño phenomenon or any other factor, responsible for the European heatwave.
    2. Recurrence pattern: This is the third severe heatwave to grip Europe in five years, after 2022 and 2023.
    3. Mortality scale: More than 1,300 excess deaths have been recorded since 21 June; over 1,00,000 people are estimated to have died from extreme heat across 2022 and 2023.
    4. Probability shift: Record-breaking night-time highs are nearly 100 times more likely now than in 2003; daytime peak temperatures are nearly 10 times more likely.
    5. Historical baseline broken: Temperature records being broken were set in 1976; the current daytime and overnight highs would have been virtually impossible to occur as recently as 1976.
    6. ENSO ruled out: The El Niño Southern Oscillation phase played no role in driving the heat during this spell.

    Why has climate attribution science become central to fixing responsibility for extreme weather events?

    1. Definition: Climate attribution is the scientific discipline that determines how much human-caused global warming influences the probability and intensity of specific extreme weather events. It quantifies how much worse or more likely a particular flood, heatwave, or drought has become compared to a hypothetical world without human-driven emissions
    2. Function: Attribution science tests the likelihood of a specific extreme weather event occurring if climate change were not taking place.
    3. Recency: The discipline has developed only over the last two decades.
    4. Speed gain: Assessments earlier took months or years; WWA’s methods now produce findings within days, even while an event is still ongoing.
    5. Purpose: The science removes ambiguity and fixes the exact extent of climate change’s responsibility for an event.
    6. Scientific caution without it: Scientists are otherwise wary of linking any individual extreme weather event to climate change without a dedicated attribution study.
    7. Policy intent: Beyond generating evidence, attribution studies are designed to force policymakers to act faster on climate change.

    Does scientific certainty on climate attribution translate into proportionate political action?

    1. Evidence-action gap: Scientific evidence on climate change is already voluminous and compelling, yet climate change has dropped down the list of global priorities.
    2. Political trigger: The decline has sharpened particularly after Donald Trump took office as US President.
    3. Forum evidence: Recent G7 meetings have carried little or no climate-related agenda or outcomes.
    4. Reversal of salience: Climate change was earlier among the most prominent items at international meetings involving influential leaders; this prominence has receded.
    5. Target abandonment: Scientists maintain the Paris Agreement targets of containing global temperature rise within 1.5°C to 2°C remain achievable, but governments treat them as effectively out of reach.
    6. Reframing of feasibility: Governments are treating the required resource mobilisation as politically impractical rather than scientifically unattainable.

    What risk does the global shift from mitigation to adaptation pose?

    1. Strategic shift: Countries are increasingly choosing to let climate change play out and to adapt to its impacts rather than prevent it.
    2. Scientific objection: Scientists routinely warn against adaptation as a substitute for mitigation.
    3. Inherent limits: Adaptation has limits beyond which impacts cannot be absorbed.
    4. Trend trajectory: Events such as the European heatwave are projected to increase in both frequency and intensity over coming years.
    5. Displacement, not resolution: The shift to adaptation transfers the climate risk from prevention to adaptation capacity rather than resolving it.

    Conclusion

    Climate attribution science has removed the scientific ambiguity once used to avoid linking individual extreme weather events to climate change. The European heatwave attribution exposes a widening gap between scientific certainty and political will, as global climate governance deprioritises mitigation. Countries are substituting adaptation for prevention despite scientists’ warnings that adaptation carries inherent limits. Closing this evidence-action gap is now central to achieving the Paris Agreement targets.

    PYQ Relevance

    [UPSC 2017] ‘Climate Change’ is a global problem. How India will be affected by climate change? How Himalayan and coastal states of India will be affected by climate change?

    Linkage: The PYQ xamines the impacts of climate change and the need for mitigation and adaptation strategies. The article uses the European heatwave as scientific evidence that climate change is intensifying extreme weather events and highlights the growing gap between climate science and political action.

  • India Showcases Carbon Credit Trading Scheme at WTO

    Why in the news?

    India showcased its Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS) and renewable energy standards during the WTO Trade and Environment Week 2026 held in Geneva.

    Key Highlights

    • Event: WTO Trade and Environment Week 2026.
    • Theme of India’s session:
      • “Showcase of India’s Carbon Credit Trading Scheme and Standardization in Renewable Energy”.
    • Focus areas:
      • Sustainable development
      • Clean energy transition
      • Carbon markets
      • Renewable energy standards
      • Climate commitments under the Paris Agreement.

    India’s Climate Achievements

    Non-Fossil Fuel Capacity

    • Share of non-fossil fuel-based installed electricity capacity: 53.21% as of March 2026.
    • Target: 50% by 2030.
    • Achieved nearly five years ahead of schedule.

    Emissions Intensity

    • India reduced emissions intensity of GDP by: 37.38% between 2005 and 2022.
    • NDC target: 33–35% reduction by 2030.
    • Achieved ahead of timeline.

    Carbon Credit Trading Scheme (CCTS)

    • Objective: Develop a national carbon market in India.

    Features

    • National electronic carbon credit trading platform.
    • Uses market-based mechanisms to Reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Promote low-carbon technologies.

    Importance

    • Encourages industries to:
      • Improve energy efficiency.
      • Reduce carbon emissions.
      • Participate in carbon trading.

    Green Hydrogen Standards

    • Under National Green Hydrogen Mission
    • Focus: Emission thresholds and technical standards for classifying hydrogen as “Green Hydrogen”.
    • Purpose: Ensure Transparency, Credibility, Investor confidence, Development of green hydrogen ecosystem.

    India’s Climate Principles

    India highlighted: Equity, Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC), Multilateral cooperation.

    India-Japan Discussions at WTO

    • India and Japan discussed:
      • Transparency in climate-related trade measures.
      • Concerns regarding unilateral trade-restrictive environmental measures.
    • Focus: Avoiding unnecessary barriers to international trade.

    About WTO Trade and Environment Week

    • Organized under: World Trade Organization
    • Purpose: Discuss links between Trade, Climate change, Sustainability, and Environmental regulations.

    [2025] Consider the following statements:
    Statement I: Article 6 of the Paris Agreement on climate change is frequently discussed in global discussions on sustainable development and climate change.
    Statement II: Article 6 of the Paris Agreement on climate change sets out the principles of carbon markets.
    Statement III: Article 6 of the Paris Agreement on climate change intends to promote inter-country non-market strategies to reach their climate targets.
    Which one of the following is correct in respect of the above statements?

    [A] Both Statement II and Statement III are correct and both of them explain Statement I

    [B] Both Statement II and Statement III are correct but only one of them explains Statement I

    [C] Only one of the Statements II and III is correct and that explains Statement I

    [D] Neither Statement II nor Statement III is correct

  • India’s Biodiversity: Commitments and Achievements

    Why in News?

    The Government of India highlighted recent achievements and policy measures related to biodiversity conservation, governance, and sustainable use under the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD).

    Biodiversity Governance Structure

    • India follows a three-tier biodiversity governance system:
      • National Biodiversity Authority at national level
      • State Biodiversity Boards (SBBs)
      • Biodiversity Management Committees (BMCs) at local level.
    • India has:
      • More than 2,76,653 Biodiversity Management Committees (BMCs)
      • Over 2,72,648 People’s Biodiversity Registers (PBRs).

    Note: Biodiversity Management Committees (BMCs) are local-level statutory bodies in India, mandated by the Biological Diversity Act of 2002.

    About Biodiversity

    • Biodiversity refers to the variety of life forms including:
      • Plants
      • Animals
      • Microorganisms
      • Ecosystems.

    Biological Diversity Act, 2002

    • India’s principal law for:
      • Biodiversity conservation
      • Sustainable use
      • Fair and equitable benefit sharing.

    Biological Diversity (Amendment) Act, 2023

    • Promotes:
      • Research and innovation
      • Traditional knowledge-based practices
      • Community participation.

    Important Concepts

    People’s Biodiversity Register (PBR)

    • Local biodiversity database prepared by BMCs.
    • Records:
      • Biological resources
      • Traditional knowledge
      • Local species and habitats.

    Access and Benefit Sharing (ABS)

    • Ensures benefits from biological resources are shared with local communities.

    Nagoya Protocol

    • Supplementary agreement under CBD adopted in Nagoya, Japan in 2010.
    • Focuses on fair sharing of benefits arising from genetic resources.

    Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KMGBF)

    • Adopted during CBD COP-15 in Montreal in 2022.
    • Global target:
      • Halt and reverse biodiversity loss by 2030.

    National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (NBSAP 2024-2030)

    • Aligns India’s biodiversity goals with KMGBF.
    • Promotes:
      • Whole-of-government
      • Whole-of-society approach.

    Key Achievements

    Forests and Protected Areas

    • Forest and tree cover: 8.27 lakh sq. km (25.17% of geographical area).
    • Protected areas: More than 1,134 protected areas covering 1.88 lakh sq. km.

    Species Conservation

    • Tiger population increased from: 2,226 (2014) to 3,682.

    Community Participation

    • National campaign underway for digitisation of PBRs into e-PBRs.

    ABS Achievements

    • ₹145 crore released to beneficiaries till May 2026.
    • Benefited around 11,000 BMCs (Biodiversity Management Committees).

    [2023] Consider the following statements:
    1. In Biodiversity the India, Management Committees are key to the realization of the objectives of the Nagoya Protocol.
    2. The Biodiversity Management Committees have important functions in determining access and benefit sharing, including the power to levy collection fees on the access of biological resources within its jurisdiction.
    Which of the statements given above is/are correct?

    [A] 1 only

    [B] 2 only

    [C] Both 1 and 2

    [D] Neither 1 nor 2