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Subject: Climate Change

1. Global Warming and Issues
2. All about Pollution

  • Rising sea level threat to India’s eroding coastline

    Why in the News

    India’s coastal no-build strip is still measured from today’s high-tide line, even as the shoreline retreats and the sea rises faster. The UN General Assembly (UNGA) has adopted its first ever declaration on rising sea levels, asking nations to build sea-level rise projections into coastal infrastructure planning.

    What does the UN declaration settle about statehood?

    1. Montevideo test: The 1933 Montevideo Convention defines a State by a permanent population, defined territory, government and capacity to enter into relations with other states. A sinking country risks failing the territory test.
    2. Continued statehood: The declaration’s “presumption in favour of continued statehood” lets a sinking country keep its sovereignty, UN seat and nautical boundaries. It works like a title deed that survives the flood.
    3. Displaced people: Countries must protect the human rights of those who lose homes. Eg. Over a third of Tuvalu‘s 11,000 people have sought Australian climate visas.
    4. The takeaway: Sinking island nations such as Tuvalu, Kiribati and the Maldives keep their legal existence.

    What does India gain from a pledge meant for small islands?

    1. India’s stand: India backed stable maritime zones and reaffirmed “common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities”: those who caused more warming and can pay more should do more.
    2. Island count: A 2023-24 remeasurement counts 1,298 offshore islands and islets.
    3. Island boundaries: Lakshadweep and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands push India’s sea boundaries into the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, so fixed boundaries protect India too.

    Is India’s coastal law ready for a retreating shore?

    1. Eroding shoreline: The National Centre for Coastal Research (NCCR) found about a third of the mainland shoreline eroding.
    2. CRZ no-build strip: The Coastal Regulation Zone (CRZ) Notification, 2019 bars new building within 50 metres of the high-tide line in dense rural areas and 200 metres elsewhere.
    3. Moving baseline: The high-tide line marks today’s highest spring tide, so on the fastest-eroding stretches a house at the 50-metre edge reaches the water in about ten years.
    4. Unused hazard line: The Survey of India‘s hazard line factors in sea level rise, but the 2019 rules use it only for disaster management and land-use planning.

    Where does India fall short on people already displaced?

    1. Vanishing islands: In the Sundarbans, Ghoramara island has lost about half its area in five decades.
    2. Repeat displacement: Families who moved to Ghoramara from the vanished Lohachara island were displaced again within a decade, without secure tenure or livelihoods.
    3. No legal category: Indian law does not recognise people who lose land gradually to erosion, so each relocation is decided case by case.
    4. People at risk: A Frontiers in Marine Science review puts 45 million Indians at risk by 2050.
    5. Fiji’s model: Fiji wrote relocation into its Climate Change Act in 2021, backed by a trust fund.

    Challenges

    1. Locked-in rise: A UN brief finds seas will keep rising for centuries to millennia even at net zero.
    2. Adaptation finance gap: Developing countries’ adaptation needs far exceed the international public finance available.
    3. Distant finance goal: At the Baku summit, India called the new goal of $300 billion a year by 2035 “too little and too distant”.

    Way Forward

    1. Hazard-line baseline: Measure the no-build strip from the hazard line, or widen it by local erosion rates before the UN review due by September 2030.
    2. Erosion displacement law: Give families displaced by erosion land title and livelihood support by law.
    3. Finance diplomacy: Press for “timely and predictable disbursement” of adaptation finance at COP31 in Antalya in November.

    Conclusion

    The UN has secured sinking States’ legal future, but India’s coastal rules still plan against a shoreline moving inland. Whether the no-build strip moves to the hazard line before the next UN review will test India’s readiness.

    Key numbers

    1. Sea-level rise rate (World Meteorological Organization): 2.1 mm a year in 1993-2002, 4.7 mm in 2015-2024; a record 6 mm in 2024 alone.
    2. Rise by 2100 (‘Surging Seas in a Warming World’, 2024): about 38 cm at lowest emissions, about 77 cm if emissions keep climbing.
    3. Erosion (NCCR, 1990-2016): 234 sq km lost, 231 sq km gained; nearly 400 km retreating over 5 metres a year and 225 km by 3 to 5 metres; over 170 km of West Bengal in the fastest category.
    4. Adaptation finance (UN Environment Programme): needs over $310 billion a year by 2035; $26 billion of international public finance in 2023.
    5. India’s coastline (2023-24 remeasurement): 11,098 km.
    6. Ghoramara island area (Sundarbans): about 7.2 sq km shrinking to 3.6 sq km.

    Matching Previous Year Question

    “[2020] Which one of the following statements best describes the term ‘Social Cost of Carbon’? It is a measure, in monetary value, of the (a) long-term damage done by a tonne of CO2, emissions in a given year. (b) requirement of fossil fuels for a country to provide goods and services to its citizens, (c) efforts put in by a climate refugee to adapt to live in a new place. (d) contribution of an individual person to the carbon footprint on the planet Earth. Answer: (a)”

  • New efficiency norms: What will change for OEMs, small cars & SUVs

    Why in the News

    India’s car efficiency rules have moved from a proposed extra 3 g/km allowance for petrol cars weighing up to 909 kg to a single fleet-wide formula in which vehicle weight sets every carmaker’s target. The final Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE)-III framework, notified on 29 September, also gives electric vehicles the biggest compliance benefit.

    What are the CAFE-III norms?

    1. What they are: CAFE norms cap the average fuel consumption across all cars a company sells, not each model, like a class average rather than each student’s score.
    2. Coverage: They apply to M1 category passenger vehicles, cars seating up to eight passengers besides the driver, manufactured or imported for sale in India.
    3. Period: The norms run for five financial years, from April 2027 to March 2032.
    4. Weight-based target: A maker’s permitted fuel consumption depends on the weighted average unladen weight (sales-weighted empty weight) of its vehicles. A heavier, SUV-led fleet gets a higher limit than a small-car fleet.
    5. The takeaway: Carmakers must now manage the efficiency of their entire portfolio rather than individual models.

    Why did the small-car concession go?

    1. Contested carve-out: Small cars became one of the most contentious points in drafting, since India’s market depends on compact, light petrol cars. A September 2025 draft proposed the extra allowance.
    2. Market concentration: Maruti Suzuki has an outsized presence in small cars. Rival carmakers argued the carve-out would disproportionately benefit a segment dominated by the largest carmaker.
    3. Changed weight formula: The reference weight, the baseline from which each fleet’s target is adjusted, rose from 1,170 kg in earlier versions to 1,229 kg. The weight adjustment is also flatter.
    4. No separate category: The final framework creates no separate category for the lightest cars. Their weight advantage is built into the broader fleet formula instead.

    What routes to compliance do carmakers get, and how has industry responded?

    1. Electric vehicle credit: Battery-electric and range-extended electric vehicles get a volume derogation factor of 3, so each counts as three vehicles when fleet performance is calculated.
    2. Carbon Neutrality Factor: This credit rewards makers for ethanol-blended petrol, biofuels and compressed biogas (CBG). It gives a route to compliance beyond efficiency gains and electrification.
    3. Industry welcome: Maruti Suzuki called it a comprehensive regulation built on scientific data and inter-ministerial consultation, recognising multiple powertrains and fuels.
    4. Predictable roadmap: Hyundai Motor India said the 3+2 year compliance block structure allows long-term product and technology planning.

    Challenges

    1. Diluted real gains: Counting each electric vehicle three times lets a maker sell more fuel-hungry cars and still meet its average.
    2. Fuel credit verification: Credits for ethanol and CBG assume cleaner fuel is actually used, which carmakers do not control.
    3. Lab versus road gap: Fuel consumption is certified on test cycles, which often understate real-world use.
    4. Softer SUV targets: A weight-based formula gives heavier fleets a higher allowance, so a shift to SUVs eases the target.

    Way Forward

    1. Taper the multiplier: The Ministry of Power should lower the derogation factor as electric vehicle sales rise.
    2. On-road checks: Testing agencies should add real-world fuel checks to certification.
    3. Public compliance data: The Ministry of Power should publish each carmaker’s fleet performance every year.
    4. Audited fuel credits: Carbon Neutrality Factor credits should be tied to verified fuel supply data from oil marketing companies.

    Conclusion

    CAFE-III ties every carmaker’s target to the weight of what it sells, which removed the case for a separate small-car carve-out. The first compliance block will show whether electric vehicle and clean fuel credits cut real fuel use or only soften the average.

    Matching Previous Year Question

    “[2020] Which one of the following statements best describes the term ‘Social Cost of Carbon’? It is a measure, in monetary value, of the (a) long-term damage done by a tonne of CO2, emissions in a given year. (b) requirement of fossil fuels for a country to provide goods and services to its citizens, (c) efforts put in by a climate refugee to adapt to live in a new place. (d) contribution of an individual person to the carbon footprint on the planet Earth. Answer: (a)”

  • UN Sea Level Declaration

    Why in the News

    A country’s legal existence no longer depends on its coastline: under the Declaration on Sea Level Rise, low lying states threatened by rising seas keep their statehood and maritime zones even if their coasts retreat inland. The United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) adopted the Declaration by consensus.

    What does the Declaration protect?

    1. What it is: The Declaration is a political statement by all UN members on responding to rising seas, like a guarantee that a country’s legal existence outlasts its shoreline.
    2. Statehood preserved: Low lying countries such as Fiji, Tuvalu and Vanuatu keep their statehood, sovereign rights and UN membership.
    3. Maritime zones fixed: Sea zones under the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) are measured from the coast. The Declaration keeps them defined even as coasts retreat, so a shrinking shoreline does not shrink a country’s sea.
    4. Citizens’ rights: If the sea swallows a country’s territory, its citizens still keep their nationality and economic rights.
    5. The takeaway: A state can now lose its land without losing its legal existence, its seas or its people’s citizenship.

    How does the Declaration organise action?

    1. Origin: A 2024 high-level meeting gave members a mandate to negotiate an action oriented agreement. This Declaration is the result.
    2. Four areas of action: The four page text groups action under four heads:
      • science and data;
      • adaptation and financing;
      • livelihoods, socio-economic development, data sharing and early warnings;
      • the legal consequences of sea-level rise.
    3. People centred response: It asks countries to respond in ways that protect livelihoods and cultural heritage, involving affected communities.
    4. Continued engagement: Members commit to keep engaging on the issue, including a high-level meeting before the 84th session of the General Assembly ends.

    Why do island states need these assurances?

    1. Existential threat: Rising seas threaten to swallow most or all of the habitable territory of low lying island states in the coming decades.
    2. Collective voice: These states negotiate together as the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS) in forums including the Conference of the Parties (COP), the annual UN climate summit.
    3. Pace of rise: Global mean sea level is currently rising by about 4 to 5 mm a year.

    Challenges

    1. Not binding: A General Assembly declaration is a political commitment, not a treaty, so it creates no enforceable obligation.
    2. Legal survival is not physical survival: Retained statehood does not stop the flooding and salt intrusion that make atolls uninhabitable.
    3. Adaptation finance gap: Small islands cannot fund sea walls, raised land or relocation from their own budgets.
    4. Narrow migration routes: Pathways for displaced islanders remain small and bilateral. Eg. The Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union treaty (2023).

    Way Forward

    1. Codify in law: The International Law Commission should carry its work on sea-level rise into a binding instrument on statehood and maritime zones.
    2. Deposit baselines now: Island states should deposit their baseline coordinates with the UN Secretary-General, so their zones stay fixed as coasts move.
    3. Grant based adaptation finance: Channel grants to small island states through the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage.
    4. Early warning coverage: Extend the UN Early Warnings for All initiative to every low lying coast.
    5. India’s island partnerships: India should use the Infrastructure for Resilient Island States initiative to back these measures.

    Conclusion

    The Declaration settles what happens in law to a drowning state, but leaves the physical and financial question unanswered. The next test is whether the follow up meeting converts political assurance into binding law and money for adaptation.

    Back2Basics: UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS)

    1. What it is: The treaty adopted in 1982, in force since 1994, that sets the rules for using the world’s oceans and their resources.
    2. Maritime zones: A coastal state’s territorial sea runs up to 12 nautical miles and its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) up to 200 nautical miles.
    3. Institutions: It created the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea and the International Seabed Authority.
    4. India: India ratified UNCLOS in 1995.

    Matching Previous Year Question

    “[2020] Which one of the following statements best describes the term ‘Social Cost of Carbon’? It is a measure, in monetary value, of the (a) long-term damage done by a tonne of CO2, emissions in a given year. (b) requirement of fossil fuels for a country to provide goods and services to its citizens, (c) efforts put in by a climate refugee to adapt to live in a new place. (d) contribution of an individual person to the carbon footprint on the planet Earth. Answer: (a)”

  • Rs 2.5 cr as carbon credits: In a first, farmers reap harvest of good practices

    Why in the News

    Farmers in India have received carbon credit payments for improved agricultural practices for the first time. About 2,500 farmers, roughly 1,400 of them in Punjab and the rest in Haryana, were paid for practices that cut greenhouse gas emissions and retain carbon in the soil. The payment is attributed to verified credits rather than to the acreage a farmer holds, which is what separates it from an area based subsidy. The programme puts a price on practice change that regulation and penalties have tried to compel for years, and whether that price is large enough to hold the change in place is now the open question.

    How does an agricultural carbon credit work?

    1. The unit: A carbon credit represents one tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent either kept out of the atmosphere or stored, and it is sold to a buyer seeking to offset its own emissions.
    2. What generates it on a farm: Credits arise from a documented change in practice that lowers emissions or raises carbon held in the soil, measured against what the farmer would otherwise have done.
    3. Payment basis: The payout follows the number of verified credits attributed to a farmer, not the area cultivated, so two farmers with the same holding can be paid differently.

    Which practices earned the credits?

    1. Direct seeded rice: Sowing paddy directly into the field instead of transplanting seedlings into puddled soil cuts water use and the methane released from flooded fields.
    2. Zero and reduced tillage: Disturbing the soil less keeps carbon stored in it rather than releasing it on ploughing.
    3. Residue management: Handling paddy straw instead of burning it removes a direct emission source and returns organic matter to the soil.
    4. Efficient fertiliser use: Applying nitrogen to soil test recommendations cuts nitrous oxide release from over application.
    5. Why these fit Punjab: All four are directly relevant to the rice and wheat based cropping system that dominates the State.

    How were the claims verified?

    1. Remote sensing: Satellite and remote sensing systems monitor fields and detect residue burning across the season.
    2. Geo-fencing: A digital boundary drawn around a registered field ties the observed activity to the specific farmer claiming the credit.
    3. Soil sampling: Sampling assesses changes in soil properties, including soil organic carbon, which is the stock the credit claims to have raised.
    4. Institutional backing: The programme runs with technical guidance from the Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), and the ICAR-Agricultural Technology Application Research Institute (ATARI), Ludhiana has a memorandum of understanding with the agri-technology firm operating it.
    5. The stated role of the public institution: Its function is to educate farmers and to ensure practices are documented and verified through field evidence and technology.

    What did farmers actually receive?

    1. The aggregate: Over 50,000 carbon credits were generated across thousands of acres, with payments totalling around Rs 2.50 crore.
    2. The individual range: Farmers received between about Rs 3,000 and Rs 15,000 each.
    3. Payments track practice history, not size: A farmer with about 13 acres in Bathinda who stopped burning paddy residue seven to eight years ago received Rs 5,700, while two others in the same village received Rs 19,000 and Rs 14,000.
    4. Larger holdings, moderate payouts: A farmer cultivating about 20 acres near Jagraon received Rs 6,070 and one farming about 90 acres in Sirsa using ex-situ residue management received Rs 12,000.
    5. The floor: Two farmers, in Ludhiana and in Sirsa, received Rs 3,000 each, and an 8.5 acre farmer in Bathinda using soil testing and recommended fertiliser received Rs 9,075.
    6. Design as a continuing process: The programme is structured as a recurring payment for continued adoption rather than a one time transfer.

    What is the wider policy context this sits in?

    1. Origins: The programme was initiated by an agri-technology firm in 2019, so the first payouts follow six years of building the practice and verification base.
    2. Farm fires have already fallen: Punjab recorded a decline in farm fire incidents from over 83,000 in 2020 to fewer than 5,000 in 2025, according to ICAR.
    3. A parallel State scheme exists: Punjab has paid farmers since August 2024 for raising and maintaining trees on agricultural land under an agroforestry based carbon credit programme.
    4. Its terms differ: Under that scheme farmers must maintain trees for at least five years, with the carbon benefit linked to tree growth and the subsequent use of the wood in paper, furniture and plywood.
    5. The multilateral layer: The recent BRICS Summit in New Delhi adopted a declaration establishing a BRICS Network of Centres of Excellence on Agroecology and Regenerative Agriculture for Climate Resilience and Productivity, and a BRICS Network on Digital Agriculture.

    Challenges to farm carbon credit programmes

    1. Price volatility in the voluntary market: Payments depend on voluntary market prices for credits, which move with corporate offset demand rather than with farm economics. Eg. Voluntary carbon credit prices fell sharply after 2023 as buyers questioned offset quality.
      The Fix: Contract a floor price with farmers for the full crop cycle rather than passing through spot credit prices.
    2. Additionality: A farmer already following the practice is paid for abatement that would have happened anyway, which produces no new emission reduction. Eg. Several payouts went to farmers who had not burnt paddy residue for five to eight years.
      The Fix: Set the baseline against district level practice adoption rather than against the individual farmer’s own past.
    3. Soil carbon measurement: Soil organic carbon changes slowly and varies within a single field, so the sampling design decides the credit count. Eg. Gains from zero tillage can take several seasons before they register above sampling error.
      The Fix: Fix a permanent monitoring grid per cluster and re-measure at set intervals before credits are issued.
    4. Permanence: Carbon stored in soil returns to the atmosphere the moment the farmer resumes deep tillage or burning. Eg. One season of deep ploughing can release carbon accumulated over years of zero tillage.
      The Fix: Hold back a share of each payout in a buffer pool released only after repeated years of verified compliance.
    5. Switching costs exceed the payment: The sums are small against the machinery and the yield risk that practice change requires. Eg. Direct seeded rice needs a seed drill and far tighter weed control than transplanted paddy.
      The Fix: Stack the credit payment on top of State machinery subsidy so the two together cover the cost of switching.
    6. Coverage: A few thousand farmers in two States is a fraction of the rice and wheat belt the practices are meant to change. Eg. Punjab alone has over ten lakh operational holdings.
      The Fix: Aggregate smallholders through Farmer Producer Organisations so they clear the minimum volume verification requires.

    Conclusion

    The significance of this payout is not its size but its direction. Public policy on residue burning has worked through penalties and machinery subsidy, and this is the first time the same behaviour has been rewarded through a market. What remains unsettled is whether the reward survives a bad credit price year or a season when direct seeded rice underperforms, because a farmer who switched for the money will switch back for the same reason. Watch whether the second round of payments reaches farmers outside the Punjab and Haryana pilot and whether a floor price is written into the contracts.

    Back2Basics

    1. Indian Council of Agricultural Research: An autonomous body under the Department of Agricultural Research and Education (DARE), Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare, established in 1929.
    2. Mandate: It coordinates, guides and manages agricultural research and education across horticulture, fisheries and animal sciences.
    3. Field network: It runs Krishi Vigyan Kendras at district level and the Agricultural Technology Application Research Institutes that coordinate them zonally.
    4. Scale: It is among the largest national agricultural research systems in the world, with institutes and All India Coordinated Research Projects across crops and regions.

    Matching Previous Year Question

    “Regarding “carbon credits’’, which one of the following statements is not correct?”

  • Nepal wants climate compensation, putting major emitters on the hookNepal wants climate compensation, putting major emitters on the hook

    Nepal wants climate compensation, putting major emitters on the hookNepal wants climate compensation, putting major emitters on the hook

    Why in the News

    Nepal has demanded direct climate compensation from the United States, China and India, the world’s three largest emitters. The demand follows the glacial collapse of 26 August on the Nepal China border, which killed over 1,200 people and buried hydropower tunnels and valleys downstream. Nepal’s Foreign Minister has framed the country as paying the ultimate price for a crisis it did not create.

    What is the Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage?

    1. What it is for: It is the dedicated financing mechanism for climate damage that has already occurred and can no longer be adapted to, as distinct from funds for mitigation or for adaptation.
    2. How it came about: Vulnerable nations secured its establishment at COP27 in 2022, after decades of resistance from developed countries to any dedicated loss and damage facility.
    3. When it began operating: It was operationalised a year later at COP28.
    4. Where it sits: It is temporarily hosted by the World Bank, which places a development lender at the centre of a compensation mechanism.

    Why does Nepal sit at the centre of climate injustice?

    1. Its own contribution is negligible: Nepal accounts for 0.1 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions and generates almost all its electricity from renewable hydropower.
    2. Its geography is the exposure: The Hindu Kush Himalayas, described as the “Third Pole”, are warming at nearly twice the global average, and their glaciers are melting at 10 times their historical norms.
    3. The driver is remote, not local: Warming in the North Eurasian Arctic disrupts planetary waves and the stratospheric polar vortex, which in turn destabilises the South Asian monsoon.
    4. The scale was misread: The major powers treated the event as a localised weather emergency manageable with temporary relief, when the cryosphere failure cascaded down into densely populated valleys.

    What did the disaster do to Nepal’s economy?

    1. It struck the sector the country had bet on: Nepal’s strategy for economic sovereignty rested on harnessing 43,000 MW of commercially viable hydropower to become a regional energy exporter, and it had only recently achieved net exporter status.
    2. A tenth of installed capacity is gone: The floods crippled approximately 10 percent of installed capacity, wiping out older surface level plants such as Devighat and burying under construction projects in mud.
    3. The trade position reversed overnight: A country banking on power exports to narrow its trade deficit with India halted exports and began importing power to survive the winter.
    4. Rebuilding costs more than building did: Climate resilient underground engineering will raise future project costs by 10 to 12 percent.
    5. The bill is a tenth of the economy: Total damages are estimated between 4 billion dollars and 7 billion dollars, roughly a tenth of Nepal’s entire gross domestic product.

    Why has Nepal named the United States, China and India?

    1. The case against the United States is cumulative: America accounts for over 20 percent of cumulative global emissions since 1850, which anchors the claim in historical liability rather than current output.
    2. The case against China is proximity and data: China is the current top annual emitter, and Nepali officials had asked at a bilateral meeting in Kathmandu in May 2026 for real time data sharing on glacial lakes and avalanches in the Tibetan region.
    3. What China supplied instead: Beijing provided only heavy rain forecasts, and the absence of transboundary early warning proved fatal when the glacial lake burst.
    4. The case against India inverts India’s own argument: New Delhi has long cited low per capita emissions and demanded “common but differentiated responsibilities” from the West, and Nepal now applies that logic regionally to South Asia’s largest economy and emitter.
    5. India’s regional conduct is part of the charge: India’s refusal to buy power from Nepali projects built by Chinese contractors has complicated Nepal’s recovery and spread the friction horizontally across the region.

    Why can the existing fund not answer the demand?

    1. The fund is smaller than one country’s damage: It holds a mere 700 million dollars in pledges, against a single catastrophe costing several billion.
    2. The grant ceiling makes the arithmetic absurd: Pilot phase rules cap individual grants at between 5 million and 20 million dollars, so the maximum available payout answers a fraction of one percent of the loss.
    3. Speed is the second failure: The mechanism is handicapped by slow moving bureaucracy, and Nepal’s out of cycle demand on 1 September forces its board to decide whether it can respond to a live emergency at all.
    4. Compensation may arrive as debt: Debt saddled developing nations fear that money routed through a development lender converts into loans, turning a liability payment into a further obligation.
    5. The major powers answered with relief, not liability: China and India responded with helicopters, rescue teams and medicines, which supplies assistance while conceding no legal responsibility.

    Challenges to Nepal’s compensation claim

    1. The climate treaty framework expressly rules out liability: The decision adopting the Paris Agreement records that loss and damage provisions do not involve or provide a basis for any liability or compensation. Eg. Developed countries insisted on that language in 2015 as the price of accepting loss and damage in the text at all.
      The Fix: Pursue the claim through state responsibility and human rights forums in parallel, so the treaty carve out does not extinguish the legal route entirely.
    2. Attributing a single collapse to named emitters is contested: Compensation requires linking one event to specific contributors, and attribution science produces probabilities rather than the causal certainty a liability claim needs. Eg. The International Court of Justice advisory proceedings on climate obligations turned substantially on whether such a link can ground state responsibility.
      The Fix: Commission an independent forensic attribution study of the 26 August collapse before the claim reaches any forum, so the demand rests on published evidence.
    3. Pledged climate money has a record of not arriving: Announced sums and disbursed sums diverge by years in climate finance. Eg. The 100 billion dollar a year promise made for 2020 at Copenhagen in 2009 was reported as met only in 2022.
      The Fix: Attach disbursement deadlines and public tracking to each pledge, so a pledge that is not paid is visible rather than absorbed into a cumulative total.
    4. Upstream data sharing rests on no binding obligation: Early warning for glacial hazards depends on the upstream state volunteering information, and no treaty compels it. Eg. Hydrological data on the Brahmaputra reaches India through renewable memoranda of understanding, and sharing lapsed after the 2017 Doklam standoff.
      The Fix: Negotiate a Hindu Kush Himalaya data protocol with automatic sensor level transmission, so glacial lake readings do not depend on the state of bilateral relations.
    5. Regional politics undercuts regional claims: Nepal is asking India for differentiated responsibility while its recovery is being slowed by an Indian trade restriction. Eg. Power from Nepali projects built by Chinese contractors is refused entry to the Indian market.
      The Fix: Separate the power trade rules from the security screening by publishing objective eligibility criteria, so recovery generation is not blocked by contractor nationality.

    Conclusion

    Nepal’s claim will not be paid, and that was never the whole point of making it. A country responsible for a rounding error in global emissions has converted a disaster into a legal argument, and the argument lands on India rather than only on the West. The precedent it sets is that differentiated responsibility runs downward as well as upward, which is uncomfortable for every middle emitter that has used the doctrine as a shield. What to watch is the fund board’s response to an out of cycle demand, since a refusal establishes that the mechanism handles paperwork rather than emergencies.

    Back2Basics: Common But Differentiated Responsibilities

    1. What the principle holds: All states share responsibility for protecting the global environment, and their obligations differ according to their historical contribution to the problem and their present capacity to act.
    2. Where it is written: It appears as Principle 7 of the 1992 Rio Declaration and in Article 3.1 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), 1992.
    3. How it was first operationalised: The Kyoto Protocol, 1997 split countries into Annex I parties carrying binding emission targets and non Annex I parties carrying none.
    4. How the Paris Agreement restated it: The 2015 text retains the principle “in the light of different national circumstances”, replacing the fixed two group split with nationally determined contributions.

    “[2017, GS3, 15 marks] ‘Climate Change’ is a global problem. How India will be affected by climate change? How Himalayan and coastal states of India will be affected by climate change?

  • Blaming climate change for extreme weather has limits

    Why in the News

    World Weather Attribution (WWA), an international research group that assesses the influence of climate change on extreme weather, has found that this year’s intense South Asian heatwave was made about three times likelier and up to 1 degree C warmer by climate change. The finding rests on extreme event attribution, a method that reruns climate models for a world without human emissions and reads the difference. Specialists have questioned how far that method can be pushed. The confidence it delivers for a multi-day heatwave collapses for a one hour cloudburst, and claims of legal liability for emissions rest on the stronger reading.

    How does extreme event attribution work?

    1. What it sets out to do: It traces the human fingerprint in a specific extreme weather event rather than in the climate record as a whole.
    2. Detection comes first: Detection establishes whether an event falls outside the range of its normal occurrence given natural variation in the climate system.
    3. The counterfactual run: Climate models are simulated first for a pre-industrial world with carbon dioxide at 280 parts per million (ppm), then for present day conditions above 420 ppm.
    4. Attribution reads the gap: The difference in the magnitude or the likelihood of the event between the two runs is assigned to human influence, and many simulations with rigorous statistical tests are required to rule out chance.

    Why is confidence higher for heatwaves than for local downpours?

    1. Long events sit inside model resolution: A day-long heatwave or several days of heavy rain unfolds slowly enough for a global climate model to represent it.
    2. Short bursts do not: Intense bursts of rain lasting an hour or so are harder to model and to link to climate change, because most global climate models cannot capture fast-changing processes.
    3. The resolution gap is documented: The Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) notes that local phenomena such as land-sea breezes and mountain wind systems can only be realistically represented at a simulation resolution of around 10 km or less, which current models do not support.

    What data and computing limits hold the science back?

    1. The observational record is too short: Analysis of localised events is hampered by limited long-term weather records.
    2. Natural variability cannot be bounded without them: Without long-term hourly or sub-hourly rainfall observations for a particular place, the range of natural variability for a heavy rainfall event there cannot be marked out with confidence.
    3. Computing power is the second constraint: Insufficient computing power restricts how finely and how often localised events can be simulated.
    4. The consequence is overreach: Uncertainties arising from observations and from models lead to unscientific claims and sweeping generalisations.

    Why can scientists not agree on what counts as extreme?

    1. The baseline decides the verdict: An event that appears extreme against a 10 to 20 year timeline may not look exceptional when analysed against a dataset spanning 500 years.
    2. Long reconstructions change the picture: A reconstruction of droughts over roughly 1,200 years found that some kinds of drought seen in the past no longer occur at all.
    3. No agreed threshold exists: Scientists are not agreed on what amounts to extreme, so the same event can be classified differently by two competent groups.

    How strong is the scientific objection to single event attribution?

    1. The possibility itself is contested: At a 2025 committee hearing at the U.S. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine (NASEM), a Stanford University climate scientist questioned whether single event attribution is even possible at all from a scientific point of view.
    2. The counterfactual cannot be validated: A former United Nations and United Kingdom government scientist has asked how it can be known that a climate model accurately represents a climate no one has ever observed.
    3. The difficulty is conceded by the panel: NASEM experts have previously noted that it is challenging to ascertain the influence of climate change on extreme weather.
    4. Extremes predate emissions: Extreme weather events can occur even without anthropogenic climate change, so the presence of an extreme is not itself evidence of a human cause.

    What rides on the answer, and what is the alternative?

    1. The liability is pursued at two levels: Claims are brought both against countries and against individual corporations, which are two different evidentiary burdens.
    2. The carbon majors claim: Studies claim that carbon majors, meaning businesses with particularly high emissions, can be defined and that specific climate changes can be attributed to specific organisations.
    3. The court is the real test: The open question is whether such findings hold up in court, and climate models will never be perfect enough for counterfactual worlds to be accepted without challenge.
    4. The competing priority: Developing more effective early warning systems and adaptation infrastructure saves more lives than establishing who is responsible.

    Conclusion

    Extreme event attribution is strongest exactly where it is least contested, on slow, large scale events such as heatwaves, and weakest on the short, localised events that cause most sudden loss of life. That asymmetry matters because liability claims are being built on the method as a whole rather than on the events it handles well. Sparse long-term records, limited computing power and an unsettled definition of extreme all remain unresolved. Until they are, preparedness through early warning and adaptation infrastructure delivers more than attribution can.

    Back2Basics: World Weather Attribution

    1. What it is: An international collaboration of climate scientists that assesses whether and how far climate change influenced a specific extreme weather event.
    2. When it began: It was set up in 2014, and is led from the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London.
    3. What makes it distinctive: It publishes rapid analyses within days or weeks of an event, against conventional studies that take months to years.

    Matching Previous Year Question

    “[2020] Which one of the following statements best describes the term ‘Social Cost of Carbon’? It is a measure, in monetary value, of the (a) long-term damage done by a tonne of CO2, emissions in a given year. (b) requirement of fossil fuels for a country to provide goods and services to its citizens, (c) efforts put in by a climate refugee to adapt to live in a new place. (d) contribution of an individual person to the carbon footprint on the planet Earth. ANSWER: (a)”

  • Losing forest for trees: India is counting trees when it should be restoring forests

    Why in the News

    A performance audit by the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) of the Green India Mission (GIM) has found that across a decade the Mission improved forest quality over only 0.11 million hectares against a target of 1.4 million hectares, and achieved barely 4 per cent of its forest cover expansion goal. The Mission was designed as ecological restoration, and it has been displaced in practice by a sapling planting drive whose success is measured in trees planted rather than in forest restored. The India State of Forest Report 2023 records a green cover gain of 1,445 sq km, of which only 156 sq km is true forest.

    What is the Green India Mission?

    1. What it is: A national mission of the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change aimed at protecting, restoring and enhancing India’s forest cover and at responding to climate change through adaptation and mitigation.
    2. Where it sits: It is one of the eight pillars of the National Action Plan on Climate Change, unveiled in 2008.
    3. Its climate function: It is the instrument through which India promised the Paris Agreement an additional carbon sink of 2.5 billion to 3 billion tonnes by 2030.
    4. Its animating idea: The objective is ecological, covering biodiversity, water, carbon sequestration and the revival of habitat, not the raising of tree numbers.
    5. Its twin physical targets: The Mission set out to increase forest and tree cover on one block of land and to improve the quality of existing forest cover on another.
    6. Its funding design: It was built to draw money and labour from other programmes rather than from its own budget line alone.

    What is the Compensatory Afforestation Fund Management and Planning Authority?

    1. What it is: The statutory authority, known as CAMPA, that manages funds collected from industry and other user agencies in return for the diversion of forest land to non forest use.
    2. What it funds: The money is channelled into afforestation, catchment treatment and habitat improvement, which is why the Green India Mission was designed to converge with it.

    What is tree cover outside recorded forests?

    1. What it is: Tree patches smaller than one hectare and trees standing outside the legally recorded forest area, counted separately from forest cover in the national forest assessment.
    2. Why the distinction matters: A plantation, an orchard or an avenue of trees adds to this category without adding to forest, so a rise in green cover can occur while forest itself stagnates.

    What is Ek Ped Maa Ke Naam?

    1. What it is: A tree plantation campaign launched in 2024, translated as A Tree in the Name of Mother, under which the government reports planting 140 crore saplings so far.
    2. Its effect on the Mission: For practical purposes it has replaced the Green India Mission as the visible face of India’s forest effort.

    What did the Comptroller and Auditor General audit find?

    1. Forest quality improvement: Against a target of improving forest quality over 1.4 million hectares, the Mission managed 0.11 million hectares, less than a tenth of the target.
    2. Forest cover expansion: On expanding forest cover the Mission achieved barely four per cent of its goal.
    3. Recorded shortfall on quality: The audit records a shortfall of about 91.87 per cent against the forest quality improvement target over ten years.
    4. Recorded shortfall on cover: The audit records a shortfall of about 97.57 per cent against the forest cover target over the same period.
    5. Coverage of the audit: The performance audit examined implementation across 16 States and Union Territories.
    6. Money actually received: Only about Rs 1,149.14 crore of budgetary support reached the Mission over the audited decade.
    7. Convergence not achieved: The Mission’s intended convergence with its partner schemes did not materialise.
    8. The overall verdict: A scheme conceived to heal India’s forests achieved almost nothing it set out to do across a decade.

    Why did the Mission’s convergence with other funding streams fail?

    1. The CAMPA channel: CAMPA holds money collected from industry for diverting forest land into afforestation, and that money did not flow into Mission activity as designed.
    2. The wage labour channel: The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, rebranded VB G RAM G, funds rural wage labour that can be used for plantation and land restoration works.
    3. What convergence was meant to do: The Mission’s own budget line was small by design, so its physical targets depended on borrowing funds and labour from these two much larger streams.
    4. What happened instead: The convergence never materialised, which left the Mission with a decadal target set for one scale of resources and an actual allocation of a different scale.
    5. The consequence for accountability: A mission that does not control its own money cannot be held to its own targets, and no single agency owns the shortfall.
    6. The displacement effect: With convergence absent, the plantation drive absorbed the political attention and the reporting space that restoration was meant to occupy.

    What does the India State of Forest Report 2023 show about the quality of the gain?

    1. The headline gain: The report records a gain of 1,445 sq km in green cover.
    2. The forest share of that gain: Only 156 sq km of that gain is true forest.
    3. The remainder: The other 1,289 sq km is tree cover outside recorded forests.
    4. Inside the recorded forests: Dense canopy within recorded forest area is thinning into scrub.
    5. What the two numbers together establish: India is planting more and foresting less, so an aggregate green cover figure conceals a decline in forest quality.
    6. Why this matters for the carbon pledge: A carbon sink commitment measured in billions of tonnes rests on dense forest, not on scattered tree cover that stores far less carbon per hectare.

    Why does the Aravalli Green Wall illustrate the limits of planting?

    1. The state of the range: The Aravallis are among the country’s most degraded ranges, with hillocks quarried away over decades.
    2. The invasion: Native growth has been overrun by the invasive vilayati kikar (Prosopis juliflora), which suppresses regeneration of native species.
    3. The proposed remedy: The range is now to be rescued by a Green Wall of fresh planting.
    4. What planting cannot do, first: Fresh saplings cannot undo the damage left by years of mining and the removal of the hill itself.
    5. What planting cannot do, second: Planting does not halt encroachment on the range, which is a land use and enforcement problem.
    6. What planting cannot do, third: An ecosystem that took millennia to assemble cannot be summoned back by a plantation drive.
    7. The governing distinction: Restoration rebuilds the ecological function of a landscape, and landscaping only adds vegetation to it.

    Where does counting trees diverge from restoring forests?

    1. Two different outputs: A sapling planted is a countable annual output. A restored forest is a slow change in canopy density, species composition and soil.
    2. Two different timelines: Planting reports results within a financial year, and restoration shows results across decades, which biases the system toward planting.
    3. Two different failure modes: Plantation failure shows up as sapling mortality that is rarely audited. Restoration failure shows up in the forest report, as it has in 2023.
    4. The metric drives the money: With 140 crore saplings as the reported achievement and 0.11 million hectares as the restored area, the reporting system rewards the activity that is easiest to count.
    5. Species and structure are lost in the count: A count of trees is indifferent to whether the trees are native, whether they form a canopy, and whether they support the species the forest once held.
    6. The ecological cost of the substitution: Biodiversity, groundwater recharge and habitat revival, the Mission’s stated objectives, do not follow automatically from a higher tree count.

    What can an audit of this kind not capture?

    1. The instrument is accountancy: The audit counts hectares and rupees, and it cannot count the worth of a living forest.
    2. Ecological value is not a line item: Pollination, water regulation, soil stabilisation and habitat quality have no entry in a financial performance table.
    3. Implementation reality: The assessment cannot always capture the practical difficulties of running a mission across State forest departments with varying capacity.
    4. Time lag in forest outcomes: Restoration works undertaken late in the audit period cannot show measurable results within it.
    5. Why the verdict still stands: Even on its own limited terms, an achievement of four per cent against a cover target and a tenth of a quality target is a failure of implementation, not a measurement artefact.
    6. What the audit does establish: The mission designed to restore India’s forests was allowed to wither while the state busied itself counting trees.

    Challenges to the Green India Mission

    1. Sapling survival is not tracked: Plantation drives report numbers planted and rarely report survival after three years. e.g. successive State plantation drives reporting crore scale planting with no published third year survival audit.
    2. Monoculture and exotic species: Plantations favour fast growing and commercially useful species over native mixed forest, which limits habitat value. e.g. eucalyptus and acacia blocks raised on degraded common land in Karnataka and Gujarat.
    3. Land availability for restoration: The Mission needs degraded forest land free of competing claims, and much of it carries grazing, cultivation and settlement use. e.g. contested village common land in the Aravalli belt of Haryana and Rajasthan.
    4. Forest rights not settled first: Restoration works on land where individual and community claims under forest rights law remain undecided create conflict with forest dwellers. e.g. pending community forest resource claims across central Indian districts.
    5. Invasive species suppress regeneration: Restoration on invaded land fails unless the invasive is removed first, which is costlier than planting. e.g. Prosopis juliflora in the Aravallis and Lantana camara across central Indian forests.
    6. Weak convergence architecture: The Mission depends on funds controlled by other schemes with their own targets and reporting cycles. e.g. CAMPA balances lying unspent with State authorities while Mission works waited for money.
    7. Staffing and capacity in forest departments: Frontline forest staff vacancies limit the supervision that assisted natural regeneration requires. e.g. large vacancy levels in forest guard and forester posts reported by several State forest departments.
    8. Diversion continues alongside restoration: Forest land continues to be diverted for infrastructure while restoration targets are missed, so the net position worsens. e.g. compensatory afforestation for the Ken Betwa link inside the Panna landscape.
    9. Green cover accounting conflates categories: Counting orchards, plantations and avenue trees within green cover masks the loss of dense natural forest. e.g. the 1,289 sq km of tree cover outside recorded forests in the 2023 assessment.

    Conclusion

    India has substituted a countable output, saplings planted, for the objective it actually set itself, which is restored forest, and the audit records the cost of that substitution across a decade. The Green India Mission failed not because restoration is unachievable but because it was starved of money, denied the convergence it was designed around, and displaced by a drive that reports faster numbers. Until forest quality, canopy density and sapling survival replace planting counts as the reported metric, the Paris carbon sink commitment will rest on an inflated green cover figure. The instrument exists and the finance does not follow it.

    Forest Cover and Restoration in India

    1. What forest cover means: All land more than one hectare in area with a tree canopy density of more than 10 per cent, irrespective of ownership or legal status.
    2. The assessment: The Forest Survey of India, Dehradun, publishes the India State of Forest Report every two years using satellite data and field inventory.
    3. The national scale: Total forest and tree cover is about 8,27,357 sq km, which is about 25.17 per cent of the geographical area, per the 2023 assessment.
    4. The split: Forest cover is about 7,15,343 sq km, or 21.76 per cent, and tree cover about 1,12,014 sq km, or 3.41 per cent.
    5. The policy target: The National Forest Policy, 1988 sets a goal of 33 per cent of the geographical area under forest and tree cover.
    6. The canopy classes: Forest cover is classed as very dense forest, moderately dense forest and open forest, by canopy density bands.
    7. The international commitment: India has committed to restoring 26 million hectares of degraded land by 2030, a pledge raised from an earlier 21 million hectare commitment under the Bonn Challenge.
    8. The climate commitment: India’s nationally determined contribution promises an additional carbon sink of 2.5 billion to 3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent through additional forest and tree cover by 2030.
    9. Why restoration differs from afforestation: Restoration rebuilds a degraded ecosystem’s native composition and function, and afforestation only establishes trees on land, often with a single species.

    Constitutional Framework Governing Forests and the Environment

    1. Article 48A: Directs the State to protect and improve the environment and to safeguard the forests and wildlife of the country.
    2. Article 51A(g): Places a fundamental duty on every citizen to protect and improve the natural environment including forests, lakes, rivers and wildlife.
    3. Article 21: Protects life and personal liberty, read by the courts to include the right to a clean and healthy environment.
    4. Seventh Schedule, Concurrent List Entry 17A: Places forests on the Concurrent List after the 42nd Constitutional Amendment, 1976.
    5. Seventh Schedule, Concurrent List Entry 17B: Places protection of wild animals and birds on the Concurrent List.
    6. Article 253: Empowers Parliament to legislate to implement international agreements, the basis for environmental laws giving effect to treaty commitments.
    7. Article 244 and the Fifth Schedule: Provide for administration of Scheduled Areas, which overlap substantially with India’s forest landscapes.
    8. Article 243ZD and Part IX: Place village level planning with Panchayats, the base for Gram Sabha consultation in forest areas.

    Laws and Rules Governing Forests and Compensatory Afforestation

    1. Indian Forest Act, 1927: Consolidates the law on forests, the transit of forest produce and the duty leviable on it, and provides for reserved, protected and village forests.
    2. Key feature: It creates the categories of legally recorded forest against which forest cover is measured.
    3. Forest (Conservation) Act, 1980: Requires prior approval of the Union government for the diversion of forest land to non forest use.
    4. 2023 amendment: Renamed the Act the Van (Sanrakshan Evam Samvardhan) Adhiniyam, 1980 and exempted specified categories of land and projects from prior approval.
    5. Compensatory Afforestation Fund Act, 2016: Establishes the National and State Compensatory Afforestation Funds and the authorities that manage them.
    6. Rules, 2018: Set out the procedure for utilisation of the accumulated fund for afforestation, catchment treatment and wildlife management.
    7. Scheduled Tribes and Other Traditional Forest Dwellers (Recognition of Forest Rights) Act, 2006: Recognises individual and community forest rights and requires Gram Sabha consent for diversion.
    8. Wildlife (Protection) Act, 1972: Governs protected areas, and restricts activities inside national parks, sanctuaries, conservation reserves and tiger reserves.
    9. Environment (Protection) Act, 1986: The umbrella law under which environmental clearance, eco sensitive zone notifications and emission standards are issued.
    10. National Green Tribunal Act, 2010: Creates a specialised tribunal for environmental disputes, including challenges to forest diversion and afforestation failures.
    11. Biological Diversity Act, 2002: Provides for conservation of biological diversity and the constitution of biodiversity management committees at the local level.

    “[2016] Which of the following best describes/ describe the aim of ‘Green India Mission’ of the Government of India?
    1. Incorporating environmental benefits and costs into the Union and State Budgets thereby implementing the ‘green accounting’
    2. Launching the second green revolution to enhance agricultural output so as to ensure food security to one and all in the future
    3. Restoring and enhancing forest cover and responding to climate change by a combination of adaptation and mitigation measures
    Select the correct answer using the code given below.
    (a) 1 only
    (b) 2 and 3 only
    (c) 3 only
    (d) 1, 2 and 3

  • India’s Green Mission in Trouble? CAG Flags Major Lapses

    Why in the News

    A Comptroller and Auditor General audit of the Green India Mission across 16 states and union territories found a 91.87 per cent shortfall against its forest quality improvement target and a 97.57 per cent shortfall against its forest cover target over ten years. The mission received Rs 1,149.14 crore, or 47.88 per cent, of the budgetary support it was to get. The tension is between a mission carrying India’s forest carbon sink commitment and a funding and convergence design that never materialised.

    What is the Green India Mission?

    1. About: The Green India Mission is one of the eight missions under the National Action Plan on Climate Change, launched in 2014 by the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change.
    2. Twin targets: Increasing forest and tree cover on 5 million hectares, and improving the quality of forest cover on another 5 million hectares.
    3. Design principle: The mission was to work through convergence with existing schemes rather than through a large standalone budget.
    4. Climate function: It carries the forestry component of India’s Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Agreement.

    What did the audit find on physical targets?

    1. Quality improvement: Forest cover quality improved on only 0.11384 million hectares against a 1.4 million hectare target, a shortfall of 91.87 per cent.
    2. Cover increase: Forest cover increased on only 0.03409 million hectares against a 1.4 million hectare target, a shortfall of 97.57 per cent.
    3. Audit period: The audit covered 2015-16 to 2024-25 across 16 states and union territories.
    4. Accounting failure: Eight states and union territories did not maintain annual accounts for the mission.

    Why did the funding architecture fail?

    1. Proposed requirement: The mission’s proposed funding requirement was Rs 40,600 crore.
    2. What was approved: The Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs approved Rs 2,000 crore for the first four years, alongside Rs 400 crore from Thirteenth Finance Commission grants.
    3. What was received: Only Rs 1,149.14 crore, or 47.88 per cent of even that reduced budgetary support, reached the mission over ten years.
    4. Structural consequence: A mission funded at under 3 per cent of its assessed requirement could not deliver targets set against the full requirement.

    Why did convergence not happen?

    1. Intended partners: Convergence was planned with the Compensatory Afforestation Fund Management and Planning Authority, the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme, the Nagar Van Yojana and the School Nursery Yojana.
    2. What the audit found: These schemes operated in silos, and convergence was not achieved.
    3. Design dependence: The mission’s low budget was justified on the assumption that convergence would supply the resources, so the failure of convergence removed the funding basis entirely.
    4. Accountability gap: No single authority was answerable for delivering convergence across ministries.

    What does this mean for India’s climate commitment?

    1. The commitment: India’s Nationally Determined Contribution includes creating an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent by 2030 through additional forest and tree cover.
    2. Delivery vehicle: The Green India Mission is the principal instrument for the forestry component of that commitment.
    3. Arithmetic problem: Cover added on 0.03409 million hectares cannot support a sink target premised on 5 million hectares.
    4. Reporting risk: The gap between the reported forest cover figures and the audited mission achievement raises a measurement question about what counts as forest cover.

    Challenges to India’s afforestation programmes

    1. Plantation survival rates: Trees planted are counted, trees surviving are not. e.g. audits repeatedly finding low survival in compensatory afforestation plantations.
    2. Monoculture plantation: Fast growing single species plantations raise canopy cover without restoring biodiversity. e.g. eucalyptus and acacia plantations counted as forest cover gains.
    3. Definition of forest cover: The forest survey definition counts any land above one hectare with over 10 per cent canopy, including plantations and orchards. e.g. commercial plantations appearing as forest cover increases.
    4. Compensatory afforestation land shortage: States lack non forest land of the required extent to compensate diversion. e.g. the accumulation of unspent Compensatory Afforestation Fund balances before the 2016 Act.
    5. Community rights friction: Plantation on land under claim conflicts with recognised forest rights. e.g. disputes over plantation drives on land claimed under the Forest Rights Act, 2006.
    6. Convergence without an owner: Cross ministry convergence has no accountable authority. e.g. the Green India Mission’s four named partner schemes operating in silos through the audit period.

    Conclusion

    The mission failed because its target was set against an assessed requirement of Rs 40,600 crore while its funding was built on a convergence assumption that no authority was made accountable for delivering. The shortfall is therefore a design failure rather than an implementation lapse. The next milestone is whether the government restructures the mission’s funding or restates the forestry component of the Nationally Determined Contribution.

    Back2Basics: National Action Plan on Climate Change

    1. Launched in 2008 to outline India’s strategy on climate adaptation and mitigation.
    2. Comprises eight national missions: Solar, Enhanced Energy Efficiency, Sustainable Habitat, Water, Sustaining the Himalayan Ecosystem, Green India, Sustainable Agriculture, and Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change.
    3. Coordinated by the Prime Minister’s Council on Climate Change.
    4. States prepare State Action Plans on Climate Change aligned to the national missions.
    5. The Green India Mission was approved by the Cabinet Committee on Economic Affairs in 2014 with a mandate covering 10 million hectares in total.

    Government Initiatives

    1. Compensatory Afforestation Fund Act, 2016: Governs the use of funds collected for forest land diversion, with a national authority and state authorities managing the corpus.
    2. Nagar Van Yojana: Supports the creation of urban forests on forest or other land within municipal limits, targeting city residents and local bodies.
    3. National Mission for a Green India: Targets 5 million hectares of new cover and 5 million hectares of quality improvement.
    4. Mission LiFE: Promotes individual and community behaviour change on sustainable consumption.
    5. School Nursery Yojana: Engages schools in raising seedlings to build a nursery base and environmental awareness.

    Way Forward

    1. Fund the mission against its assessed requirement: Close the gap between the Rs 40,600 crore requirement and the Rs 1,149.14 crore released, or restate the targets.
    2. Appoint an accountable convergence authority: Name one authority answerable for delivering convergence across the four partner schemes.
    3. Report survival, not planting: Measure achievement through third party verified survival after three years, not through saplings planted.
    4. Separate plantation from natural forest in reporting: Report plantation area distinctly from natural forest cover so the carbon sink claim is verifiable.
    5. Enforce annual accounts: Make release of the next instalment conditional on maintained annual accounts, since eight states did not maintain them.

    “[2016] Which of the following best describes/ describe the aim of ‘Green India Mission’ of the Government of India?

    1. Incorporating environmental benefits and costs into the Union and State Budgets thereby implementing the ‘green accounting’

    2. Launching the second green revolution to enhance agricultural output so as to ensure food security to one and all in the future

    3. Restoring and enhancing forest cover and responding to climate change by a combination of adaptation and mitigation measures

    Select the correct answer using the code given below.

    (a) 1 only

    (b) 2 and 3 only

    (c) 3 only

    (d) 1, 2 and 3

  • New study finds global warming is accelerating, with the 1.5 degree Celsius breach projected by 2030

    Why in the News

    A study in the journal Geophysical Research Letters reports evidence that global warming is accelerating, not merely continuing. After removing natural noise from five temperature datasets, the authors find the last decade warmed faster than any previous decade on record, and project the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold being breached by 2030.

    What is the 1.5 degree Celsius threshold?

    1. Paris target: Under the Paris Agreement, 2015, countries agreed to hold warming well below 2 degrees Celsius above pre industrial levels and to pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
    2. Why 1.5 matters: Beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius, risks of extreme heat, sea level rise, and ecosystem collapse rise sharply, making it the central guardrail of climate policy.

    What are aerosols and the masking effect?

    1. Aerosols: Aerosols are tiny particles from sources such as burning fossil fuels that reflect sunlight and exert a cooling effect on the atmosphere.
    2. How cooling works: Light-colored particles bounce sunlight back into space and help make clouds brighter, which lowers temperatures.
    3. The cooling mask: This pollution has acted like an invisible shield, hiding a portion of the total heat trapped by greenhouse gases
    4. Unmasking: As pollution controls cut aerosols, their cooling effect fades and the full warming from greenhouse gases is felt, an effect the study describes as a disappearing cooling mask.

    Why is measuring acceleration difficult?

    1. Noisy temperatures: Global temperatures fluctuate year to year because of natural factors like volcanic eruptions and changes in solar activity. (Volcano noise includes the seismic vibrations, audible sounds, and infrasound produced by subsurface magma movement, degassing, and eruptions. Solar noise refers to intense bursts of radio waves and energetic emissions naturally broadcast by the Sun.)
    2. Masked trend: These events can temporarily hide the underlying human caused warming, making it hard to prove the rate itself is rising.

    How did the study establish acceleration?

    1. Multiple datasets: The authors analysed five major global temperature datasets to avoid relying on any single record.
    2. Statistical subtraction: They used statistical methods to remove the influence of volcanic and solar noise, isolating the human driven trend.
    3. High confidence: After removing the noise, they were more than 98% certain the jump in warming rate was real rather than a short lived fluctuation, dating the change to around 2015.
    4. Timing: This change or acceleration in the rate of warming was identified to have begun around
      2015 .

    Why does the faster pace matter?

    1. Shrinking timeline: Under the earlier, slower rate, the world expected more time before breaching 1.5 degrees Celsius, and the accelerated pace brings the breach forward to 2030.
    2. Twin drivers: Greenhouse gas emissions remain the primary cause, while falling aerosol pollution adds to the acceleration.

    What are the challenges to limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius?

    1. Continued emissions growth: Global carbon dioxide emissions remain near record highs, driven by fossil fuel use in power, industry, and transport.
    2. Aerosol paradox: Cutting air pollution saves lives but removes a cooling effect, accelerating near term warming.
    3. Shrinking carbon budget: The remaining budget consistent with 1.5 degrees Celsius is small and shrinks with every year of high emissions.
    4. Slow energy transition: Renewable growth has not yet displaced fossil fuels fast enough to cut absolute emissions.
    5. Feedback loops: Melting ice, thawing permafrost, and forest loss release additional carbon and reduce reflectivity, reinforcing warming.
    6. Finance and equity gaps: Developing countries lack the finance and technology transfer needed to decarbonise while meeting development needs.

    Conclusion

    The study reframes the problem from steady warming to an accelerating one, advancing the likely 1.5 degree Celsius breach to 2030. The central unresolved issue is that cleaning the air removes a cooling shield, so only deep and sustained cuts in greenhouse gases can slow the pace.

    Back2Basics:

    Paris Agreement

    1. Adopted: 2015 at the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21), entering into force in 2016.
    2. Convening body: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
    3. Core goal: Limit warming well below 2 degrees Celsius, pursuing 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre industrial levels.
    4. Mechanism: Nationally Determined Contributions, updated every five years, with a global stocktake to assess collective progress.

    PYQ Relevance

    [UPSC 2022] Discuss global warming and mention its effects on the global climate. Explain the control measures to bring down the level of greenhouse gases which cause global warming, in the light of the Kyoto Protocol, 1997.

    Linkage: The question examines the causes, impacts and mitigation of global warming through international climate frameworks. The article adds recent evidence that global warming is accelerating, highlighting the need for faster emission cuts to achieve Paris Agreement goals.

  • Climate whiplash, fire clouds: factors fuelling Europe’s wildfires

    Why in the News?

    Severe wildfires have swept across Greece, France, Spain, Portugal and Italy, driven by climate whiplash, pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) clouds, and prolonged heatwaves, highlighting the growing impact of climate change.

    Key Concepts

    Climate Whiplash

    • Rapid shift between extreme wet and dry conditions.
    • Wet periods promote vegetation growth, while subsequent heatwaves dry it into highly flammable fuel.

    Pyrocumulonimbus (pyroCb) Clouds

    • Fire-generated thunderstorm clouds formed by intense wildfire heat.
    • Can reach the stratosphere, generate lightning and strong winds, creating new fires.

    Sixth-Generation Wildfires

    • Extremely intense wildfires driven by heatwaves and prolonged drought.
    • Difficult to control using conventional firefighting methods.

    Why are Europe’s Wildfires Becoming More Severe?

    • Climate whiplash increases fuel availability.
    • PyroCb clouds spread fires through lightning and erratic winds.
    • Rural land abandonment has increased combustible vegetation.
    • Rising temperatures and prolonged droughts intensify fire conditions.

    Impacts

    • Loss of lives, forests and biodiversity.
    • Declining air quality across large regions.
    • Increased carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, accelerating climate change.
    • Annual economic losses of about €2.5 billion in the European Union (EU).

    [2026] Consider the following statements with reference to India’s response to climate change:

    I. India’s LT-LEDS is a crucial tool for achieving net-zero emissions by 2070.

    II. India’s BUR-4 (Dec 2024) recorded ~8% decrease in GHG emissions in 2020 over 2019.

    III. Climate-resilient development necessarily depends on quick and short-term achievement of emission reduction targets.

    Which of the following relationships is/are correct?

    1. Statement I is empirically supported by statement II

    2. Statement III contradicts the approach implicit in statement I

    3. Statement I and statement III together establish the premise of long-term sustainability

    (a) 1 only

    (b) 1 and 2

    (c) 2 and 3

    (d) 3 only