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  • Historical and Archaeological Findings in News

    Thamirabarani Civilization is 3200 years old

    National Parks/WSPrelims Only | History | Mains Paper 1: Arts & Culture

     

    A carbon dating analysis of rice with soil, found in a burial urn at Sivakalai in Thoothukudi district of Tamil Nadu has yielded the date of 1155 BC, indicating that the Thamirabarani civilization dates back to 3,200 years.

    About Thamirabarani River

    • The Thamirabarani or Tamraparni or Porunai is a perennial river that originates from the Agastyarkoodam peak of the Pothigai hills of the Western Ghats.
    • It flows through the Tirunelveli and Thoothukudi districts of the Tamil Nadu state of southern India into the Gulf of Mannar.
    • It was called the Tamraparni River in the pre-classical period, a name it lent to the island of Sri Lanka.
    • The old Tamil name of the river is Porunai.

    Its history

    • Its many name derivations of Tan Porunai include Tampraparani, Tamirabarni, Tamiravaruni.
    • Tan Porunai nathi finds mention by classical Tamil poets in ancient Sangam Tamil literature Purananuru.
    • Recognised as a holy river in Sanskrit literature Puranas, Mahabharata and Ramayana, the river was famed in the Early Pandyan Kingdom for its pearl and conch fisheries and trade.
    • The movement of people, including the faithful, trade merchants and toddy tapers from Tamraparni river to northwestern Sri Lanka led to the shared appellation of the name for the closely connected region.
    • One important historical document on the river is the treatise Tamraparni Mahatmyam.
    • It has many ancient temples along its banks. A hamlet known as Appankoil is located on the northern side of the river.

    Significance of the carbon dating

    • This has provided evidence that there was a city civilisation in south India as long back as 3,200 years ago, the later part of the Indus Valley Civilisation.
    • Vicinity to the ancient port of Muziris, now known as Pattanam, in Kerala add another significance to the trade history of this site.
    • Now, research would be conducted at Quseir al-Qadim and Pernica Anekke in Egypt, which were once part of the Roman empire, as well as in Khor Rori in Oman, to establish the Tamils’ trade relations with these countries.
    • Potsherds bearing Tamil scripts have been found in these countries.
    • Studies would also be conducted in Southeast Asian countries, such as Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia and Vietnam, where King Rajendra Chola had established supremacy.

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    Also read

    https://www.civilsdaily.com/news/sangam-era-older-than-previously-thought-finds-study/

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  • Textile Sector – Cotton, Jute, Wool, Silk, Handloom, etc.

    Catching up on PLI scheme for textile sector

    | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Indian Economy

    Context

    The Cabinet approved the Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) scheme for the textile sector that is expressly targeted at the man-made fibre (MMF) and technical textiles segments.

    Why India needs to focus on Man-made fibre (MMF) in textile trade

    • Preference for MMF:  The MMF surpassed cotton as the fibre of choice in the 1990s.
    • The MMFs share in worldwide textile consumption is about 75%.
    • Dominance of natural fibre in India’s export: India’s textile and clothing exports have continued to remain dominated by cotton and other natural fibre-based products.
    • The MMF have contributed less than 30% of the country’s $35.6 billion in overall sectoral exports in 2017-18.
    • While policy makers have been cognisant of the need to bolster support for the MMF segment.

    About the scheme

    • The PLI scheme has a budgeted outlay of ₹10,683 crore.
    • Incentive at two levels: The incentives have been categorised into two investment levels.
    • First level: Firms investing at least ₹300 crore into plant and machinery over two years would need to hit a minimum turnover of ₹600 crore before becoming eligible to receive the incentive over a five-year period.
    • Second level: At a second level an investment of ₹100 crore with a pre-set minimum turnover of ₹200 crore would enable qualification for the incentive.
    • Intermediate products included: The aim of the scheme is to specifically focus investment attention on 40 MMF apparel product lines, 14 MMF fabric lines and 10 segments or products of technical textiles.
    • The inclusion of intermediate products reflects the Government’s keenness to ensure the scheme ultimately delivers on the broader policy objectives.

    Conclusion

    Operational success of the scheme is likely to hinge on how new entrepreneurs and existing companies weigh the risk-reward equation, especially at a time when the pandemic-spurred uncertainty has already made private businesses leery of making fresh capital expenditure.

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  • Economic Indicators and Various Reports On It- GDP, FD, EODB, WIR etc

    Why we must focus on Human Development not GDP growth?

    op-ed snap | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Indian Economy

    The much-anticipated estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) for the first quarter of the fiscal year 2021-22 were released on 31 August. This has seen an unprecedented decline in GDP at 24.4%.

    Why debate this?

    • An increasing GDP is often seen as a measure of welfare and economic success.
    • However, it fails to account for the multi-dimensional nature of development or the inherent short-comings of capitalism, which tends to concentrate income and, thus, power.
    • The real issue thriving the Indian Economy is the relevance of GDP estimates as the sole or most important indicator of a recovery.
    • Our economy was slowing down even before the pandemic and was then devastated by it.

    GDP as an indicator

    • Economic growth assesses the expansion of a country’s economy.
    • Today, it is most popularly measured by policymakers and academics alike by increasing gross domestic product or GDP.
    • This indicator estimates the value-added in a country which is the total value of all goods and services produced in a country minus the value of the goods and services needed to produce them.
    • It is common to divide this indicator by a country’s population to better gauge how productive and developed an economy is – the GDP per capita.

    A brief history of Growth and GDP

    • The concept of economic growth gained popularity during the industrial revolution, when market economies flourished.
    • In the 1930s, Nobel laureate, Simon Kuznets wrote extensively about national statistics and propagated the use of GDP as the measure of the national income of the US.
    • Against the backdrop of a bloody world wars, governments were on the look for analytical tools to raise taxes to finance the newly minted war machine.
    • It was at the 1944 Bretton Woods conference that GDP became the standard tool for measuring a country’s economy.
    • Right from the classicals to the neo-classicals, the idea of development was intertwined with economic growth, i.e. accumulation of wealth and production of goods and services.

    Prominence of GDP today

    • GDP as a measure of economic growth is popular because it is easier to quantify the production of goods and services than a multi-dimensional index can measure other welfare achievements.
    • Precisely because of this, GDP is not, on its own, an adequate gauge of a country’s development.
    • Development is a multi-dimensional concept, which includes not only an economic dimension, but also involves social, environmental, and emotional dimensions.

    Limitations of GDP

    • One of the limitations of GDP is that it only addresses average income, failing to reflect how most people actually live or who benefits from economic growth.
    • There is also a possibility that the wealth of a society becomes more concentrated and why this is counterproductive to development.
    • If left unchecked, growing inequalities can not only slow down growth, but also generate instability and disorder in society.

    Therefore, a growing GDP cannot be assumed to necessarily lead to sustainable development.

    Relevance since COVID times

    (a) Failure to capture informal economy

    • A decline in economic activity, as captured by GDP data, is only one part of the distress caused by the slowdown and covid.
    • GDP estimates hardly capture the extent of depressed economic activity in the informal sector.
    • This makes it irrelevant to the cause of understanding the changing fortunes of workers and others who are dependent on these activities.
    • India’s informal sector is not only a significant part of the overall economy but is crucial for generating broad demand, given the significantly large proportion of our population that depends on it.

    (b) Rise in distress employment

    • Most worrisome is a reversal of the trend of non-farm diversification due to reverse migration.
    • After more than five decades, we have seen an actual increase in the proportion of workers employed in agriculture.

    (c) Farmers losses

    • Farmers have fared badly. Already suffering from low output prices, the majority of farmers have seen incomes decline as input costs rose (such as on diesel and fertilizers).
    • Even though our farm sector appears relatively unaffected by covid, the ground reality of farmer incomes is at complete variance with the aggregate statistics from the national accounts.
    • The failure to capture livelihood and income losses in the informal sector is only one aspect of our GDP data inadequacy.

    GDP can never account this

    • This failure to reflect the economic conditions of our population’s majority is partly a result of the way data on GDP is calculated, but also due to infirmities of the database itself.
    • But its limitations at the conceptual level are far more serious.

    Alternate measures

    • One expanded indicator, which attempts to measure the multi-dimensional aspect of development, is the Human Development Index (HDI) by UNDP.
    • It incorporates the traditional approach to measuring economic growth, as well as education and health, which are crucial variables in determining how developed a society is.
    • In 2018, the World Bank launched the Human Capital Index (HCI).
    • This index ranks countries’ performances on a set of four health and education indicators according to an estimate of the economic productivity lost due to poor social outcomes.

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    Back2Basics:

    National Income Accounting

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  • Terrorism and Challenges Related To It

    Two decades of 9/11

    op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

    Twenty years later, the 9/11 terror attacks look a lot less epochal than they seemed in the heat of the moment.

    Why was 9-11 a major breakthrough?

    • One major inference in the wake of 9/11 was about the power of non-state actors — demonstrated by al Qaeda’s massive surprise attack on the world’s lone superpower at its zenith.
    • Al Qaeda’s rise seemed to fit in with the age of economic globalization and the internet, which heralded the weakening of the state system and the arrival of a borderless world.
    • Two decades later, though, the system of nation-states looks quite robust after enduring the challenge from international terrorism.

    Implications of the attack

    • The state system adapted quickly to the disruptions created by 9/11.
    • There was much anxiety about terror groups gaining access to weapons of mass destruction or leveraging new digital technologies to increase their power over states.
    • The state system has succeeded in keeping nuclear weapons and material away from terrorists.
    • It has also become adept at using digital tools to counter extremism.
    • If 9/11 made air travel risky, the states quickly developed protocols to de-risk it.

    Humiliating end for the US everywhere

    • Marking the 20th anniversary of 9/11 days after the humiliating US retreat from Kabul and domestic turmoil might suggest that Al-Qaeda and its associates did succeed in ending America’s unipolar moment.
    • The choice of targets in the 9/11 attacks — the World Trade Center and the Pentagon — was not accidental.
    • They were designed to strike at the very heart of American capitalism and its famed military power.
    • American capitalism met its greatest threat not in 2001 but in the 2008 financial crisis that was triggered by the reckless ideology of deregulation.
    • America lost in Afghanistan and the Middle East because it over-determined the terror threat and put security approaches above political common sense.

    Today’s agenda for terror

    • And the ambition of the jihadists — who organized the 9/11 attacks, to destroy America has risen to a higher extent:
    1. To overthrow the Arab regimes
    2. Unleash a war with Israel
    3. Pit the believers against the infidels
    • To be sure, terrorist organizations and the religious extremism that inspires them to continue to be of concern.

    Age of ideological warfare

    • Sectarian schisms, ideological cleavages, internecine warfare, and the messiness of the real world have cooled the revolutionary ardor that the world was so afraid of after 9/11.
    • In the battle between states and non-states, the former have accumulated extraordinary powers in the name of fighting the latter.
    • All nations, including liberal democracies, have curtailed individual liberty by offering greater security against terrorism.
    • Abuse of state power has inevitably followed.

    Security narratives by the US since then

    • After 9/11, President George W Bush turned his attention to confronting an imagined “global axis of evil” — Iran, Iraq, and North Korea.
    • None of the three countries was involved in 9/11.
    • And the US rewarded Pakistan with billions of dollars in military and economic assistance that actively nurtured the Taliban and succeeded in bleeding and defeating the US in Afghanistan.

    Threats earned by the US

    • This blinded the US to an emerging challenger — China — on the horizon. Washington’s obsession with the Middle East gave Beijing two valuable decades to consolidate its rise without any hindrance.
    • Although America’s unipolar moment may have ended, the US will continue to remain the most powerful nation in the world, with the greatest capacity to shape the international system.

    What about the jihadist agenda for the Middle East?

    • The Islamist effort to destroy the Gulf kingdoms spluttered quite quickly as the Arab monarchs cracked down hard on the jihadi groups.
    • Many Arab states do not see al Qaeda and its offshoots as existential threats.
    • They worry more about other Muslim states like Turkey, Qatar, and Iran that seek to leverage Islam for geopolitical purposes.
    • These fears have pushed smaller Gulf kingdoms towards Israel and shattered the jihadi hope to trigger the final Islamic assault on the Jewish state.
    • Developments in China and Pakistan reinforce the proposition that politics among nation-states is more significant than the power of the transcendental religious forces.

    How did India Respond?

    • India has been facing the problem of Pakistan-sponsored terrorism since 1989.  Unfortunately, the USA and the UK sided with Pakistan during this time.
    • However, this changed after India’s 2nd nuclear test and the 9/11 attack in the USA. Though the USA continued to rely on Pakistan, it considered Pakistan as an unreliable partner. This was further proved when Osama bin Laden was found hiding in Pakistan.
    • Indian response to terror attacks had been that of “strategic restraint”.
    • It was limited to diplomatic actions. This was evident in attacks on the Indian Parliament (December 2001) and the Kaluchak massacre (May 2002).
    • However, now we witness that India has adopted a policy of imposing costs on Pakistan by striking across the border, e.g. Balalkot airstrikes.
    • This capacity of India has been built over its strong economy and strong global linkages. Despite the economic disaster of 1991, India emerged stronger after LPG reforms.

    Conclusion

    • The trans-national nature of the new terror groups is now countered by better border controls and greater international cooperation on law enforcement.
    • However, in the subcontinent, as elsewhere, violent religious extremism thrives only under state patronage.
    • The answers to the challenges presented by the return of the Taliban and the likely resurgence of jihadi terrorism are not in the religious domain but in changing the geopolitical calculus of Pakistan’s deep state.

    B2BASICS

    Violent Non-state actors

    • In international relations, violent non-state actors (VNSA), also known as non-state armed actors or non-state armed groups (NSAGs), are individuals and groups that are wholly or partly independent of governments and which threaten or use violence to achieve their goals.
    • VNSAs vary widely in their goals, size, and methods. They may include narcotics cartels, popular liberation movements, religious and ideological organizations, corporations (e.g. private military contractors), self-defence militia, and paramilitary groups established by state governments to further their interests.

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  • International Space Agencies – Missions and Discoveries

    What is a Solar Storm?

    Prelims Only | Science Tech | Mains Paper 3: Awareness in various sc and tech fields

    Studies have found that a powerful solar storm can cause a disruption of the internet, damage submarine cables, and communication satellites.

    What is a Solar Storm?

    • A solar storm or a Coronal Mass Ejection as astronomers call it is an ejection of highly magnetized particles from the sun.
    • These particles can travel several million km per hour and can take about 13 hours to five days to reach Earth.
    • Earth’s atmosphere protects us, humans, from these particles.
    • But the particles can interact with our Earth’s magnetic field, induce strong electric currents on the surface and affect man-made structures.

    History of solar storms

    • The first recorded solar storm occurred in 1859 and it reached Earth in about 17 hours.
    • It affected the telegraph network and many operators experienced electric shocks.
    • A solar storm that occurred in 1921 impacted New York telegraph and railroad systems and another small-scale storm collapsed the power grid in Quebec, Canada in 1989.
    • A 2013 report noted that if a solar storm similar to the 1859 one hit the US today, about 20-40 million people could be without power for 1-2 years, and the total economic cost will be $0.6-2.6 trillion.

    Why is it a cause of concern?

    • The Sun goes through an 11-year cycle – cycles of high and low activity.
    • It also has a longer 100-year cycle.
    • During the last three decades, when the internet infrastructure was booming, it was a low period.
    • And very soon, either in this cycle or the next cycle, we are going towards the peaks of the 100-year cycle.
    • So it is highly likely that we might see one powerful solar storm during our lifetime.

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  • Wildlife Conservation Efforts

    First Dugong Conservation Reserve to be built in India

    Species | Enviro & Biodiversity | Mains Paper 3: Conservation, Environmental Pollution & Degradation, Eia

    India’s first Dugong conservation reserve will be built in Tamil Nadu for the conservation of Dugong, a marine mammal.

    Try answering this PYQ:

    With reference to ‘dugong’, a mammal found in India, which of the following statements is/are correct?

    1. It is a herbivorous marine animal.
    2. It is found along the entire coast of India.
    3. It is given legal protection under Schedule I of the Wildlife (Protection) Act, 1974.

    Select the correct answer using the code given below:

    (a) 1 and 2 only

    (b) 2 only

    (c) 1 and 3 only

    (d) 3 only

     

    Post your answers here.

    Dugong Conservation Reserve

    • The reserve will spread over an area of 500 km in Palk Bay on the southeast coast of Tamil Nadu.
    • Palk Bay is a semi-enclosed shallow water body with a water depth maximum of 13 meters.
    • Located between India and Sri Lanka along the Tamil Nadu coast, the dugong is a flagship species in the region.

    Dugong: The sea cow

    • Dugong or the sea cow is the State animal of Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
    • This endangered marine species survive on seagrass and other aquatic vegetation found in the area.
    • It is the only herbivorous mammal that is strictly marine and is the only extant species in the family Dugongidae.
    • Dugongs are usually about three-meter long and weigh about 400 kg.
    • Dugongs have an expanded head and trunk-like upper lip.
    • Elephants are considered to be their closest relatives. However, unlike dolphins and other cetaceans, sea cows have two nostrils and no dorsal fin.

    Their habitat

    • Distributed in shallow tropical waters in the Indo-Pacific region, in India, they are found in the Gulf of Kutch, Gulf of Mannar, Palk Bay, and Andaman & Nicobar Islands.
    • Dugongs are long-living animals, that have a low reproductive rate, long generation time, and high investment in each offspring.
    • The female dugongs do not bear their first calf until they are at least 10 and up to 17 years old.
    • A dugong population is unlikely to increase more than 5% per year. They take a long time to recover due to the slow breeding rate.

    Causes of extinction

    • Having being declared vulnerable, the marine animal calls for conserving efforts.
    • Studies have suggested the reasons for the extinction of the animal such as slow breeding rate, fishing, and the loss of habitat.
    • They are also known to suffer due to accidental entanglement and drowning in gill-nets.

    Conservation in India

    • The conservation reserve can promote growth and save vulnerable species from the verge of extinction.
    • Dugongs are protected in India under Schedule 1 of the Indian Wildlife Act 1972 which bans the killing and purchasing of dugong meat.
    • IUCN status: Vulnerable

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  • Festivals, Dances, Theatre, Literature, Art in News

    Festival in news: Nuakhai

    Prelims Only | Indian Society | Mains Paper 1: Diversity Of India

    In Odisha, Nuakhai, an important agrarian festival in the State is being celebrated today.

    Nuakhai

    • Nuakhai or is an agricultural festival mainly observed by people of Western Odisha and Southern Chhattisgarh in India.
    • It is observed to welcome the new rice of the season.
    • As per the customary practice, people offer the new grains of crops to the deities before their own consumption.
    • According to the calendar it is observed on Panchami tithi (the fifth day) of the lunar fortnight of the month of Bhadrapada or Bhadraba (August–September), the day after the Ganesh Chaturthi festival.
    • This is the most important social festival of Western Odisha and adjoining areas of Simdega in Jharkhand, where the culture of Western Odisha is much predominant.
    • It is also a festival of social cohesion as all the members of the family come together to celebrate Nuakhai.

    Try this PYQ:

    Consider the following pairs:

    Tradition                                    State

    1. Chapchar Kut Festival   —  Mizoram
    2. Khongjom Parba ballad —  Manipur
    3. Thang-Ta Dance           —   Sikkim

    Which of the pairs given above is/are correct?

    (a) 1 only

    (b) 1 and 2

    (c) 1 and 2

    (d) 2 and 3

     

    Post your answers here.

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  • Trade Sector Updates – Falling Exports, TIES, MEIS, Foreign Trade Policy, etc.

    [pib] Transport and Marketing Assistance (TMA) scheme for Specified Agriculture Products

    PIB | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Effects Of Liberalization On The Economy, Changes In Industrial Policy and their effects on Industrial Growth

    The Centre has revised “Transport and Marketing Assistance” (TMA) scheme for Specified Agriculture Products’.

    What is the TMA Scheme?

    • The TMA Scheme was introduced in 2019 to provide assistance for the international component of freight, to mitigate the disadvantage of higher freight costs faced by the Indian exporters of agriculture products.
    • All exporters, duly registered with relevant Export Promotion Council as per Foreign Trade Policy, of eligible agriculture products, shall be covered under this scheme.
    • The assistance, at notified rates, will be available for the export of eligible agriculture products to the permissible countries, as specified from time to time.
    • Assistance would be provided in cash through a direct bank transfer as part reimbursement of freight paid.

    Following major changes have been made in the revised scheme:

    • Dairy products, which were not covered under the earlier scheme, will be eligible for assistance under the revised scheme.
    • Rates of assistance have been increased, by 50% for exports by sea and by 100% for exports by air.

    List of ineligible products

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  • The national security discourse is changing

    | Security Issues | Mains Paper 3: External State & Non-State Actors: Challenges To Internal Security.,Various Security Forces, Agencies & Their Mandates

    Context

    From a rising China to the pressures of climate change; from the challenges of counter-terrorism to the COVID-19 pandemic (the four Cs), the old order is collapsing much faster than the ability of nations to create the foundations of a new one.

    The reduced difference between the domestic and foreign policy of the  U.S.

    • The idea that foreign and domestic policies are tightly intertwined is not a novel one.
    • All serious grand strategic thinking in democracies looks for sustenance in popular public support.
    • A process that was started by former U.S. President Donald Trump has been taken forward by the Biden Administration.
    • Asserting that “foreign policy is domestic policy and domestic policy is foreign policy,” the new administration has suggested that their task is to re-imagine American national security for the unprecedented combination of crises they face at home and abroad.
    • These crises include the pandemic, the economic crisis, the climate crisis, technological disruption, threats to democracy, racial injustice, and inequality in all forms”.
    • There is a growing bipartisan acknowledgment in the U.S. today that the requirements of American national security today are different from what they were during the Cold War.
    • Today’s strategic environment requires a different response for national security: one that shores up domestic industrial base helps in maintaining pre-eminence in critical technologies, makes supply chains for critical goods more resilient, protects critical infrastructure from cyberattacks and responds with a sense of urgency to climate change.

    Indian situation: Dependence on the external supply chain is the national security challenge

    • In India too, there is greater recognition of the challenges emanating on national security from domestic vulnerabilities.
    • Dependence on Chinese manufacturing: One of the most significant consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic has been to reveal how deeply India has been dependent on Chinese manufacturing for critical supplies.
    • At a time when Indian armed forces were facing the People’s Liberation Army, this exposed India to a new realization that dependence on overseas supply chains is a national security challenge of the highest order.
    • Dimensions of national security: The Indian Army chief has argued that “national security comprises not only warfare and defence but also financial security, health security, food security, energy security, and environmental security apart from information security”.

    Way forward for India

    • Shore up domestic capacities: India has since moved towards increasing domestic capacities in critical areas and also started looking at free trade agreements through a new lens.
    • Whole-of-government approach: Army Chief had suggested that instead of viewing national security “primarily from the perspective of an armed conflict, there is a need to take a whole-of-government approach towards security”.
    • Investment in armed forces: The Army chief has pointed out that investment in the armed forces contributes to the national economy.
    • Therefore, indigenization of defence procurement provides an impetus to indigenous industries, aid to civil authorities, or Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR).
    • Demand for hi-tech military products by the armed forces helps entire industries.
    • Transportation and logistics capacities of the armed forces are acting as force enablers for the Government in times of emergencies.

    Consider the question “The idea that foreign and domestic policies are tightly intertwined is not a novel one. In light of this, examine the challenges facing India’s national security that are linked with its domestic vulnerability. Suggest the ways forward.”

    Conclusion

    As nations across the world reconceptualise their strategic priorities, policymakers will need to think more creatively about the roles of various instruments of statecraft. National security thinking is undergoing a shift. India cannot be left behind.

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  • Foreign Policy Watch: India-Afghanistan

    The fall of Afghanistan, the fallout in West Asia

    op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: India & Its Neighborhood – Relations

    Three weeks after they walked into Kabul without any resistance, the Taliban now has announced an interim Council of Ministers.

    Chord with Pakistan: Crowing of its puppets

    • Pakistan appears to have got its way. This government formation has tightly controlled the head of its Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).
    • Afghanistan’s acting PM is Mullah Hassan Akhund, a close associate of former Taliban founder Mullah Omar.
    • Abdul Ghani Baradar is his deputy, but again, this could be a token position.
    • Baradar had been arrested in 2010 by the Pakistanis for pursuing a dialogue with the Hamid Karzai government without Pakistani sanction and jailed for eight years.
    • Pakistan’s true proteges are Sirajuddin Haqqani, the acting interior minister, and Mohammed Yaqoob, the acting defence minister, a son of Mullah Omar, who is also close to Haqqani.

    The West Asian players

    Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Iran have been direct role-players in Afghan affairs for over 25 years.

    • Sheikhdom involvement: In the 1990s, the first two were supporters and sources of funding for the Taliban, while Iran was an antagonist. After 9/11, all three countries became deeply involved with the Taliban. Since 2005, the Gulf sheikhdoms have contributed millions of dollars to different Taliban leaders and factions.
    • Iran’s defiance of the US: Iran began a substantial engagement with various Taliban leaders from 2007 and provided funding, weapons, training and refuge when required. It wanted the Taliban to maintain pressure on the U.S. forces to ensure their speedy departure from the country.
    • Regional competition: In the 2010s, when the US began to engage with Iran on the nuclear issue, Saudi Arabia became more directly involved in Afghan matters to prevent Iran’s expanding influence among Taliban groups. Thus, besides Syria and Yemen, Iran and Saudi Arabia have also made Afghanistan an arena for their regional competitions.
    • Earliest acknowledgment of the Taliban: In 2012, Qatar, on U.S. request, allowed the Taliban to open an office in Doha as a venue for their dialogue with the Americans. This has made Qatar an influential player in Afghan affairs, with deep personal ties with several leaders, many of whom keep their families in Doha.

    Competitions for influence

    The low-key reactions of the Gulf countries to recent developments in Kabul reflect the uncertainties relating to the Taliban in power.

    Nature of the govt: Their ability to remain united, their policies relating to human rights, and, above all, whether the Taliban will again make their country a sanctuary for extremist groups.

    Fractionalization within terror groups: The country already has several thousand foreign fighters, whose ranks could swell with extremists coming in from Iraq and Syria, and threaten the security of all neighbouring states.

    Three sets of regional players are active in Afghanistan today:

    1. Pakistan-Saudi coalition: This has been the principal source of support for the Taliban-at-war. They would like to remain influential in the new order, but neither would like to see the Taliban revert to their practices of the 1990s that had justifiably appalled the global community.
    2. Turkey and Qatar: They represent the region’s Islamist coalition and, thus, share an ideological kinship with the Taliban. Both would like to see a moderate and inclusive administration.
    3. Iran: While many of its hardliners are overjoyed at the U.S. “defeat”, more reflective observers recall the earlier Taliban emirate which was viscerally hostile to Shias and Iran. Iran also sees itself as the guardian of the Tajik, Uzbek and Hazara minorities in the country.

    Options Available: The outlook for security

    Linking with Israel-Palestine Conflict: The region now has two options: one, an Israel-centric security order in which the Arab Gulf states would link themselves with Israel to confront Iran. This is being actively promoted by Israeli hawks since it would tie Israel with neighbouring Arab states without having to concede anything to meet Palestinian aspirations.

    Comprehensive regional security arrangement: The other option is more ambitious: The facilitators and guarantors of this security arrangement are likely to be China and Russia: over the last few years, both have built close relations with the major states of the region. i.e., Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Afghanistan and Pakistan.

    Consensus to ward away the US

    • The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states led by Saudi Arabia lifted the over three-year blockade of Qatar.
    • The discussions between Iran and Saudi Arabia and plans are in place for the next meetings.
    • Turkey has initiated diplomatic overtures towards Egypt and Saudi Arabia.
    • None of these initiatives involves the Americans.

    Conclusion: A new order is in making

    • These developments suggest that the germ of a new regional security order in West Asia is already sown in fertile ground.

    Way forward for India

    • The Indian policies are at a crossroads. Continued bandwagoning with the US makes no sense.
    • Indian diplomacy should harmonize with the regional capitals, including Beijing, which can be a natural ally on issues of terrorism.
    • The bottom line is that India’s vital interests remain to be secured.
    • Demonizing the Taliban can only be counterproductive.

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