Study: CO2 emissions from fossil fuels to decline this year

Why in the News

Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from burning fossil fuels are projected to move from 38.4 billion tonnes in 2025 to 38.2 billion tonnes in 2026, the first annual decline since 2020. The Global Carbon Budget study, released at the COP31 climate meeting in Antalya, Türkiye, links the dip partly to supply shocks from the conflict between the United States and Iran. India is the only major emitter whose emissions are expected to grow.

What is the Global Carbon Budget, and what does it measure?

1. What it is: The Global Carbon Budget is a yearly scientific count of the CO2 the world releases. It works like an annual account statement for the planet’s carbon emissions.
2. Lead body and scope: The Global Carbon Budget Office at the University of Exeter leads the study. The headline number counts CO2 from burning fossil fuels (coal, oil and gas) only.
3. One part of a larger basket: Fossil fuel CO2 is the dominant part, but only one part, of the greenhouse gases that cause global warming.
4. The takeaway: A fall in fossil fuel CO2 does not by itself mean that the gases warming the planet are falling.

What does the 2026 projection show?

1. Global dip and its causes: Emissions are expected to be 0.4% lower than last year. The study credits disruptions to fuel supply caused by the conflict and the growing use of renewable energy.
2. India’s rise: India’s fossil fuel emissions are likely to be 4.4% higher than last year. This is above the 3.5% average annual growth it registered over the last decade.
3. Other major emitters: China, the United States, the European Union and Japan are expected to see declines.
4. Earlier record: The last decline came in 2020 during the Covid pandemic, the biggest fall from one year to the next measured so far.

Why is this decline not a climate solution?

1. Shock driven fall: Researchers called the dip most likely a short term result of the ongoing conflict. The study’s lead said a reduction “driven partly by geopolitical shocks is not a sustainable climate solution”.
2. Past dips reversed: Small declines in five earlier years were all tied to global disruptions that cut industrial activity and fuel use. Emissions resumed their rise after each.
3. Clean energy as the lasting answer: Renewables and electric vehicles are increasingly offsetting growth in energy demand. Their rollout must speed up further for global emissions to peak and then keep falling.

How far is the world from the 1.5 degree path?

1. Paris target: The Paris Agreement aims to hold global warming within 1.5 degrees Celsius.
2. Record greenhouse gases: The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the United Nations weather and climate agency, reported a new high in greenhouse gas emissions in 2025. Its State of the Climate Report points to a further rise.
3. Cut required: Annual greenhouse gas emissions must fall by almost half from 2019 levels by 2030. Only then is there even a minimal chance of meeting the Paris target.
4. Cut projected: Current projections show a reduction of not more than 2% by 2030, even in the best case.

Challenges

1. Reversal after the shock: Emissions that fell because fuel supply was disrupted can rebound once supply returns.
2. India’s rising energy demand: India’s emissions are growing because its economy and electricity use are still expanding, with coal as the main power source.
3. Gases beyond CO2: Methane and nitrous oxide, largely from agriculture, waste and fuel leaks, are not captured in the fossil fuel CO2 figure.

Way Forward

1. Faster clean energy rollout: Governments should speed up renewable capacity, storage and grids so that falling emissions do not depend on crises.
2. Cleaner growth in India: India should meet new electricity demand mainly from solar, wind and storage to slow its emission growth.
3. Action on methane: Countries should plug leaks from oil, gas and coal operations.

Conclusion

The projected dip in fossil fuel emissions reflects a disrupted fuel market more than a lasting change in how the world produces energy. Whether emissions stay down once the shock passes, and whether India’s growth in emissions slows, will show if a real peak has arrived.

Key numbers

1. Decline in the Covid year: 2% in 2020 (Global Carbon Budget).
2. Earlier years of small declines: 1974, 1981, 1992, 1998 and 2009 (Global Carbon Budget).

Matching Previous Year Question

“[2020] Which one of the following statements best describes the term ‘Social Cost of Carbon’? It is a measure, in monetary value, of the (a) long-term damage done by a tonne of CO2, emissions in a given year. (b) requirement of fossil fuels for a country to provide goods and services to its citizens, (c) efforts put in by a climate refugee to adapt to live in a new place. (d) contribution of an individual person to the carbon footprint on the planet Earth. ANSWER: (a)”