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IMD predicts normal monsoon despite El Nino effect

nino

Central idea

India’s four-year run of abundant summer monsoon rainfall is likely to end this year, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting a 4% shortfall in the coming season.
The monsoon forecast for 2022 is still categorized as “normal” but at 96% of the long-period average (LPA), it is at the lowest end of the range.
El Nino, a cyclical phenomenon of warming in the central Pacific, is believed to be the key factor responsible for the below-normal forecast.

Factors affecting the forecast

El Nino: It has been linked to diminished rainfall in six out of 10 years in India, and 2022 is expected to see its development.
La Nina: It has been influencing the rainfall in India since 2019 and is expected to end this year.
Reduced snow cover in Eurasia: It can have a positive impact on the monsoon forecast, and this year’s snow cover in Eurasia was below normal.
Positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): IOD could result in more moisture and rainfall over India during August and September, and therefore, have a reduced impact of the El Nino.
IMD’s dynamical monsoon forecast techniques: It involves the simulation of global atmospheric and ocean conditions to forecast climate conditions, which the IMD has started to rely on more heavily in recent years.

What is El Nino and La Nina?

El Nino and La Nina are two opposite phases of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.
ENSO is a naturally occurring phenomenon that involves the interaction between the ocean and atmosphere in the equatorial Pacific.

Here is a detailed comparison of El Nino and La Nina

	El Nino	La Nina
Definition	Warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures	Cooler-than-normal sea surface temperatures
Frequency	Every two to seven years	Every two to seven years
Duration	Several months to a year or more	Several months to a year or more
Impact on winds	Weakens trade winds, leading to changes in patterns	Strengthens trade winds, leading to changes in patterns
Impact on rains	Reduces rainfall and can cause droughts	Increases rainfall and can cause flooding
Impact on temp.	Warmer-than-average temperatures	Colder-than-average temperatures
Global effects	Droughts in Asia and Africa, floods in Americas	Floods in Asia and Africa, droughts in South America

Impacts on India

El Nino	La Nina
Associated with weak monsoons and drought-like conditions in India	Associated with above-normal rainfall and floods in India
Sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean rises above normal levels	Sea surface temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean drops below normal levels
Changes in the atmospheric circulation patterns	Changes in the atmospheric circulation patterns
Shift in the location of the jet stream, affecting the strength and direction of the monsoon winds	Increase in the strength of the monsoon winds, bringing more moisture and rainfall to India
Results in reduced rainfall, dry spells, and heatwaves, leading to crop failures and water scarcity	Excessive rainfall can also lead to floods and landslides, causing damage to crops and infrastructure

Back2Basics: Long Period Average (LPA) study of Monsoon

The IMD predicts a “normal”, “below normal”, or “above normal” monsoon in relation to a benchmark “long period average” (LPA).
The LPA of rainfall is the rainfall recorded over a particular region for a given interval (like month or season) average over a long period like 30 years, 50 years, etc.
LPA refers to the average rainfall recorded from June to September for the entire country, the amount of rain that falls every year varies from region to region and from month to month.
The IMD’s prediction of a normal monsoon is based on the LPA of the 1971-2020 period, during which India received 87 cm of rain for the entire country on average.
It has in the past calculated the LPA at 88 cm for the 1961-2010 period, and at 89 cm for the period 1951-2000.

IMD Rainfall Distribution Categories

Rainfall Distribution Categories	Percentage Departure of Actual Rainfall from LPA
Normal or Near Normal	+/- 10% of LPA (between 96-104% of LPA)
Below Normal	Less than 10% of LPA (90-96% of LPA)
Above Normal	104-110% of LPA
Deficient	Less than 90% of LPA
Excess	More than 110% of LPA

April 12, 2023

What is the Amul versus KMF controversy?

amul

Central idea

Amul, the country’s largest dairy player, announced on April 5 that it would supply milk and curd through e-commerce portals in Bengaluru.
The announcement was met with opposition from Kannadigas, who saw it as an attempt to threaten the iconic Nandini milk brand of the Karnataka Milk Federation (KMF).

Political Controversy

The Amul vs. KMF row turned into a political tool in poll-bound Karnataka.
Dissenting sections expressed fears that Amul would eat into the market of Nandini and pose a threat to its business in the state.
The ruling government was accused of attempting to privatize the milk sector and “finish off” a home-grown product.

A quick backgrounder

Both Amul Dairy and KMF are successful examples of adopting the three-tiered ‘Anand’ model of dairy procurement.
Farmers supply milk to dairy cooperatives at the village level, which is then procured by milk unions at the district and state levels.
There are 16 district milk unions in Karnataka supplying milk to the dairy cooperatives.
KMF provides competitive prices to dairy farmers.
KMF corners most of the market share for surplus milk provided by farmers in the state.

Anand Model of Dairy Procurement

It is a system of milk collection and distribution pioneered by the Amul cooperative in Anand, Gujarat, India.
This model has revolutionized the dairy industry in India by providing a fair price to dairy farmers, eliminating the need for middlemen, and improving the quality of milk.
Under the Anand model, farmers are organized into dairy cooperatives, which collect and market their milk.
The cooperatives are managed by the farmers themselves and are supported by the infrastructure and marketing expertise of the Amul cooperative.
The farmers are paid a fair price for their milk, which is based on its quality and quantity, and they receive regular payments for their milk.

Why are people protesting?

Overpricing: The pricing difference between Amul’s toned milk and Nandini’s toned milk was highlighted, with Amul’s milk priced at ₹54 per litre and Nandini’s at ₹39 per litre.
Unhealthy competition: KMF’s online presence in the state could create unhealthy competition with Amul’s online presence, despite the pricing difference, according to the federation.

The turf war

The KMF is the second-largest milk cooperative in India after Amul.
While Amul and KMF compete in neutral regions like Mumbai, Nagpur, Goa, Hyderabad, and Chennai markets, they have not clashed on home turfs.
Karnataka is a milk-excess market that meets the needs of the state and exports surplus to other states.
KMF plans to write to the National Dairy Development Board, requesting it to direct Amul not to venture into the Bengaluru market and concentrate on milk-deficient states.

Clarification by Amul

Amul clarified that it was launching its fresh milk and curd only for a niche market through e-commerce channels and not through the mass market distribution network.

April 12, 2023

The Legend of Guru Tegh Bahadur
The Parkash Purab (birth anniversary) of Sri Guru Tegh Bahadur, the ninth guru of the Sikhs, was celebrated on April 11.

Who was Guru Tegh Bahadur?
- Guru Tegh Bahadur was born on April 1, 1621, in Amritsar, Punjab.
- He was the ninth Guru of the Sikhs and the son of Guru Hargobind, the sixth Guru of the Sikhs, and Mata Nanaki.
- His birth name was Tyag Mal, which means “master of renunciation.”
- He spent his early years in Amritsar and was trained in religious studies, martial arts, and horse riding.
- He was also trained in music and poetry, and he became a skilled poet and musician.
His teachings and beliefs
- Guru Tegh Bahadur’s teachings were based on the importance of meditation, self-discipline, and living a moral and ethical life.
- He believed in the idea of one God and the unity of all religions.
- His term as Guru ran from 1665 to 1675. One hundred and fifteen of his hymns are in Guru Granth Sahib.
- He emphasized the importance of serving others and treating everyone with respect and dignity, regardless of their religion or social status.
- He also believed in the principle of selfless service and encouraged his followers to help those in need.
Significance in Indian History
- Guru Tegh Bahadur played a crucial role in Sikh history by defending the religious freedom of Hindus against the Mughal Emperor Aurangzeb.
- Aurangzeb was known for his intolerance towards non-Muslims and had imposed a tax on Hindu pilgrims visiting the holy city of Varanasi.
- When a group of Kashmiri Pandits approached Guru Tegh Bahadur for help, he decided to defend their right to practice their religion freely.
- He refused to convert to Islam despite facing torture and persecution, and was eventually executed by Aurangzeb in 1675.
- His martyrdom is remembered as a significant event in Indian history, and he is considered a hero and a martyr by Sikhs around the world.
His legacy
- His legacy continues to inspire Sikhs and people of all religions and backgrounds.
- His teachings and beliefs are an essential part of Sikhism today and are embodied in the Sikh scripture, the Guru Granth Sahib.
- He is remembered as a saint, scholar, and warrior who sacrificed his life to defend the rights of others.
- Many Gurudwaras (Sikh temples) around the world are dedicated to him, including the Gurudwara Sis Ganj Sahib in Delhi, where he was martyred.
- His martyrdom is commemorated each year on the occasion of Guru Tegh Bahadur’s Martyrdom Day, which is observed on December 19.
Try this PYQ:

Q.Consider the following Bhakti Saints:
1. Dadu Dayal
2. Guru Nanak
3. Tyagaraja
Who among the above was/were preaching when the Lodi dynasty fell and Babur took over?

(a) 1 and 3

(b) 2 only

(c) 2 and 3

(d) 1 and 2

[wpdiscuz-feedback id=”24618ltpkt” question=”Please leave a feedback on this” opened=”1″]Post your answers here.[/wpdiscuz-feedback]
April 12, 2023
Zojila Tunnel to revolutionise connectivity to Ladakh
Union Transport Minister recently visited the Zojila Tunnel In Jammu & Kashmir which is Asia’s longest as well as highest.

About Zojila Tunnel
- The Zojila tunnel is an upcoming 14.15 km road tunnel that will connect Srinagar and Leh in the Union Territory of Ladakh.
- It is being constructed as part of a project to improve connectivity in the region, with a connecting tunnel from Z-Morh to the Zojila tunnel also being built.
- The tunnel is being built at a cost of more than Rs 4,600 crore and is expected to be completed by December 2023.
Need for the tunnel
- All weather connectivity: The Zojila Pass is closed during harsh winters due to fears of avalanches, landslides, and slippery roads, cutting off areas beyond the pass from the rest of the country for at least five months.
- Military mobilization: The upcoming Zojila tunnel will provide perennial connectivity between Ladakh and the rest of the country and benefit both civilians and the military.
- Time and effort saving: The distance from Baltal to Minamarg, currently 40 km, will come down to 13 km, with travel time expected to be cut by an hour and a half.
April 12, 2023
Russia and China Aim To Build A Post-Western Order
Central Idea
- Russia and China aim to exploit divisions within the West to transform the global order and build a post-Western order. However, the Indian strategic community should not expect the fault lines within the West to be fatal, as history has shown that such dreams have not come to fruition.
Post-Western Order
- Building a post-Western order: Russia and China have talked of upending the world order before, with the history of international communism in the 20th century being about building a post-Western order.
- America’s internal fissures and divisions between the US and Europe: While Moscow and Beijing are convinced that they can put the West on the defensive by pooling their strengths, the success of this strategy rests on the Moscow-Beijing axis successfully leveraging America’s internal fissures and divisions between the US and Europe.
Dividing America from Europe
- The Moscow and Beijing are hoping to divide America from Europe: Russia’s latest version of its foreign policy doctrine singles out the US as the main instigator, organizer, and executor of the aggressive anti-Russian policy of the collective West.
- China’s diplomatic Europe strategy: China’s love for Europe’s strategic autonomy is equally passionate. However, it is unlikely that there will be a decisive movement on either issue, but both sides see the diplomatic dance as a valuable exercise.
Sino-European Engagement
- Europe’s pressure on Russia: Europe wants Xi to put pressure on Putin to end the war in Ukraine, and Beijing would like Europe to distance itself from the US on its China policy.
- Europe not ready to busy China’s peace initiative: While Europe is not ready to buy China’s peace initiative on Ukraine, it has convinced itself that Xi is the only leader who can nudge Putin towards peace.
India’s Perspective
- The realists in India are aware of the many differences between the US and Europe, but they are also aware that Western strategic unity has endured since World War II.
- The Russian and Chinese overreach has cemented broad Western unity rather than separating Europe from the US.
Conclusion
- While Russia and China aim to exploit divisions within the West to transform the global order, it is unlikely that they will succeed in building a post-Western order. The fault lines within the West are real, but they are by no means fatal.
April 11, 2023
Lessons Learned: Transition To A Self-reliant Clean Energy System
Central Idea
- Lessons learned from the liberalization of upstream petroleum sector can guide India’s transition to a self-reliant clean energy system.
Background
- In 1980, then-Prime Minister Indira Gandhi took a significant step in liberalizing the upstream petroleum sector in India. This move aimed to reduce the country’s reliance on external sources for petroleum and protect it from supply shocks. However, the liberalization did not bridge the gap between domestic demand and indigenous supply.
- In 2020, Prime Minister Narendra Modi introduced the production-linked incentive (PLI) scheme to promote investment in minerals, components, and equipment required for the generation and consumption of clean energy. This decision was driven by the strategic imperative to transition to a self-reliant clean energy system and reduce dependence on external sources of energy.
Bridging the gap between demand and supply in the clean energy sector
- Demand and supply gap: The liberalization of upstream petroleum did not bridge the gap between the domestic demand for petroleum and indigenous supply.
- Capital is not enough: The clean energy sector must not presume that the availability of technical talent and capital will be enough to create a world-class hub for the manufacture of batteries, solar cells, wafers, and modules.
Efficient Implementation of Technology in Clean Energy Sector
- India’s oil and gas producing average: The recovery rate of oil and gas from India’s producing fields has averaged between 25-30%, while fields of comparable geology across the world have a recovery rate between 40-60%.
- China’s dominance in clean energy value chain: China’s dominance of the clean energy value chain is because its process engineers have perfected the implementation of the several technological steps required to convert raw material into end product.
Reduce entry barriers and improve business condition
- India cannot compete on the size of the incentive package, and the endeavor should instead be to lower entry barriers, ease business conditions and remove the perception that India offers a high-cost operating environment.
India’s Dependency on External Market and Two-Track Policy with China
- India remains dependent on the external market for supplies of petroleum, but the country should desist from building a high-cost, domestic, clean energy hub that is forever dependent on subsidies.
- India should continue with its two-track policy and strengthen its trading relationship with China.
Conclusion
- India can learn from the lessons of the last 40 years to transition to a self-reliant clean energy system. The country needs to focus on creating an enabling ecosystem, efficiently utilizing technology, and easing business conditions to attract international investment. India should focus on trading relationships and not build a high-cost, domestic clean energy hub dependent on subsidies.
Mains Question

Q. India’s clean energy sector has enormous potential for growth, however there is a gap between domestic demand and indigenous supply. What specific measures can India take to bridge this gap and emerge as global leader in renewable energy?
April 11, 2023
2-Days FREE Workshop for UPSC 2024 | Two Frameworks for Mains Answer writing from Level ‘0’ | 5-hour prep strategy for College aspirants and working professionals | Join LIVE- Sukanya ma’am and Prabhat sir, AIR 377
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April 11, 2023
11th Apr 23 | Nikaalo Prelims- Mini Test 10 (Physiographic Divisions of India)

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April 11, 2023
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April 11, 2023
Finland-NATO-Russia: Search For Ways To Lower The Tensions
Central Idea
- Finland has become the 31st member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and its decision to join the alliance should be viewed through the lens of conventional deterrence. The accession of Finland into NATO is a rational choice that may provide additional security guarantees and help to defend against possible aggression from Russia.
Historical context of Finland-Russia relations
- The relationship between Finland and Russia has been a combination of struggle and compromise, dating back nearly 200 years.
- In 1809, the Russian Tsar Alexander I acquired Finland and made it an autonomous Grand Duchy of the Russian empire.
- Between the two world wars, the Finns felt less threatened by Germany than by Russia.
Finland’s decision to join NATO
- 31st NATO member: Finland has become the 31st member of NATO, triggering possible countermeasures from Russia.
- Independent choice: The decision to join NATO is seen as an independent choice, triggered largely by the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
- Security guarantee: Finland’s accession to NATO is a rational choice to receive additional security guarantees from the alliance. Article 5 of NATO’s founding treaty binds the members together, committing them to protect each other and setting a spirit of solidarity within the alliance.
Preparations for defense against possible aggression
- Defence against possible aggression: Even prior to its membership in NATO, Finland had been preparing to defend itself against possible aggression.
- The Finnish system of conscription has generated sufficient resources for the army, navy, and air force to act effectively in a war situation.
Implications for India and the Arctic region
- Real punch to the Western alliance in the Nordic region: Finland has maintained a small but capable armed force that is well-trained and resilient, and its inclusion in NATO adds real punch to the Western alliance in the Nordic region.
- High north is commercial attraction: As the Arctic ice cap melts amidst global warming, the high north has become attractive commercially and contested geopolitically.
- India is an observer of the Arctic Council: India is an observer of the Arctic Council that seeks to promote wide-ranging cooperation in the polar north.
- China raising profile in the Arctic: The militarisation of the high north appears inevitable as Finland and Sweden turn from neutrals to Western allies and China raises its profile in the Arctic in partnership with Russia.
- Global governance: This might make global governance of the Arctic region increasingly problematic
Way ahead: The need for cautious behavior by NATO and Russia
- Both NATO and Russia should exercise cautious behavior vis-à-vis each other to avoid further escalation of tensions.
- Finland’s newly elected centre-right government should engage in bilateral dialogue with Russia, trying to understand each other’s security concerns.
- There should be at least some NATO members who would be willing to rely more on diplomatic tools and lower the temperatures.
Conclusion
- The decision of Finland to join NATO is seen as a rational choice, triggered largely by the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The accession of Finland into NATO should be viewed through the lens of conventional deterrence and could potentially persuade an adversary not to initiate a war. NATO and Russia should search for ways to lower the tensions and avoid implementing measures and imposing countermeasures.
Mains Question

Q. Finland has become the 31st member of NATO. In this light discuss the rationale behind this decision its implications.
April 11, 2023