GS-1 Post-independence consolidation and reorganization within the country.
GS-2 Comparison of the Indian constitutional scheme with that of other countries.
GS-3 Effects of liberalization on the economy, changes in industrial policy and their effects on industrial growth;Indian Economy and issues relating to planning, mobilization, of resources, growth, development and employment. GS-4 Aptitude and foundational values for Civil Service, integrity, impartiality and non-partisanship, objectivity, dedication to public service, empathy, tolerance and compassion towards the weaker-sections
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The world is facing gloomy times in midst of the pandemic, conflicts, and natural calamities.
Recently, we witnessed the horrors caused by nature in Chamoli district, the ground of the famed Chipko movement in Uttarakhand.
Nature’s warning is evident with visible cracks in its erstwhile harmonious relationship with humanity.
This essay/article emphasizes the need for building an ecological civilization and descending from the present cliff of uncertainty towards peaceful living and inclusive development and respect for nature.
The first industrial revolution that took place 250 years ago was primarily with coal and steam; the second with electricity and oil; the third with computers and its accessories; and now the fourth is a fusion of technologies in the physical, digital and technological worlds.
Civilizational chaos
The wave of industrial and green revolution marked a major turning point in earth’s ecology and humans’ relationship with the environment.
During the 20th century, with the detonation of the atomic bomb, humanity entered a new era.
Thus, we gained the power to destroy ourselves (mutually assured destruction), without the wisdom to ensure that we must avoid doing so.
Looming threats to mankind
Widespread industrialization, the proliferation of factories, destruction of forests for the construction of massive dams & power stations and the migration of people has all caused serious disturbances in the ecosystem.
The resulting climate change and global warming is a serious threat to the present as well as the future.
Both nature and world peace are under threat.
All these developments coupled with geopolitics have put humanity on a cliff and presents dangerous situations.
Future of Peace
The future of peace and harmony in the 21st century is likely to be directly linked to issues concerning five key realities of life today:
Ecology, global warming, and climate change
Nuclear weapons, the emerging technology of warfare and the continuing arms race among nation-states
Geopolitics and nationalism
Religious extremism and
Poverty and inequality
We do not know how to retrieve the present dangerous situation away from its self-destructive ways. This needs to be appreciated in a threefold perspective:
[1] Nature
Today there is a credible threat to human survival from global warming and climate change with the potential to damage the lives and habitats of billions of people in different parts of the world.
The enormity of the challenge of conservation of ecology and halting climate change is formidable and calls for making changes in our behavior and thinking.
At the heart of the matter is: How do we move towards building fresh sensitivities for conservation in our civilizational processes?
Five events of the recent times need to be particularly referred to:
Outbreak of pandemic SARS (severe acute respiratory syndrome) in Hong Kong in 2002-03;
Bushfires in Brazil and Australia of 2019;
Continuous extinction of species
Forest fires in California alongside the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020 and
Coronavirus pandemic
These five events have given us signals that if ecology problems are not attended to urgently the world may not need world wars to destroy itself.
[2] Science
In the last decades of the 20th century, the focus of society has shifted decisively towards science and its domineering daughter, technology, both in the western and developing countries.
This has led to the globalization of products, cultural values, and information. It is integrating markets and trade.
But what becomes of environment and nature in such a scenario, remains a matter of great concern.
We have been brought to an alarming situation primarily on account of excessive greed, faulty planning, insensitive politics, and lack of imagination.
Technology, being value-neutral, has accelerated the pace of the downward journey.
Outcome: Climate change
Climate change and global warming are posing serious problems.
The biggest polluter has been the release of carbon dioxide.
To control it with speed, we have to change the terms of the market. It is based on the law of profit.
A change would mean rejecting the general line of dealings in the market in the world for the sake of the long-term interests of the human race. Are we ready for this major break? And, here wisdom comes.
[3] Wisdom
Wisdom is defined as ‘the ability to use one’s knowledge and experience to make good decisions and judgments.’
Wisdom is a product of experiences and reflections not only of the present generation but of the civilizational processes of a nation and also of the world.
Human beings can destroy their environment as well as can rise above petty interests, use technology and reverse the process of destruction of plant species and minimize carbon emissions.
At the present juncture, if we do not make use of our cumulative wisdom, nature will be harmed and succeeding generations will blame us for our failure.
We have to keep the Vedic precept of ‘माता भूमिः पुत्रो अहं पृथिव्याः ’ (‘This earth is our mother and we are its sons.’) in our minds.
Thankfully, on 12 December 2015, the Global Climate Accord was reached among 195 countries of the world in Paris.
The Paris Accord as it came to be known, commits countries to actions and policies that would restrict the rise in global temperatures ‘well below’ 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) by the year 2100.
Way Forward
We have to generate hope, courage, and respect for nature.
We should employ science and human ingenuity with determination to overcome the present state of despondency.
If science, spirituality, and wisdom go hand in hand, one can create a better world on this earth. Mahatma Gandhi said: ‘Earth provides enough to satisfy every man’s need but not for every man’s greed’.
It should become the maxim of the post-Covid world, that it will need farsighted leadership and efficient institutions of governance.
There is an imperative requirement to contemplate and work towards building an ecological civilization that would outline the ways of living in harmony with nature.
Bahudha Approach is based on the maxim enjoined upon us by the Rigveda. It proclaims: Ekam Sad Vipra Bahudha Vadanti The Real is One, the learned speak of it variously. This provides for dialogue among different religions, cultures, and ways of living. It celebrates diversity and respect for harmonious living and nature.
Conclusion
The post-Covid world would be a different world.
It has made evident that we are all interdependent and have to work for sharing economic benefits as well as fruits of science together, irrespective of religious, ethnic, economic, and cultural divides.
We have to move towards building an ecological civilization and descending from the present cliff of uncertainty towards peaceful living and inclusive development and respect for nature.
The union environment ministry has put together an amnesty scheme for infrastructure and industrial projects that have violated environmental clearance (EC) norms for Environment Impact Assessment.
What is the Scheme?
The new amnesty scheme empowers regulatory institutions at both central and state levels:
(1) To identify and report cases of violation
It refers to identify, examine and appraise violation projects, refraining from causing further environmental damage and also compensating for causing damage to the environment.
(2) To take action against violators in terms of closure or demolition of a project
It defines three different actions to be taken for the violation projects depending upon their EC status.
In case the project has not obtained EC, it will be ordered to close its operations.
If the project has undergone expansion without obtaining EC for the expanded portion, it will be ordered to revert the activity/production to the limit granted in the existing EC.
(3) To levy penalty on them that is akin to the scale of the project
It entitles the regulatory authorities to levy penalties on the proponent, in addition to the bank guarantee.
Issues with the scheme
There is also no established procedure to ensure that the complaints made against the violator are not dismissed without hearing.
This ambiguity in the memorandum leaves scope for a less transparent redressal mechanism.
The penalties suggested could be termed as legitimating non-compliance.
Criticisms
Environmental experts argue that such a move to regularise projects, irrespective of size, scale or impact, is purely a political move.
They regarded this move as weakening the EIA process.
This will be the largest regularization scheme for projects that have operated illegally in India and added to our total environmental and social burdens.
Thousands of projects operate in different states without any environmental approval.
Way forward
Looking at the plethora of violation cases it is imperative to develop such a mechanism.
However, we should not compromise the existing environmental regulations and adopt a ‘zero tolerance for violation’.
Back2Basics: Environment Impact Assessment
Environment impact assessment is a process under the Environment (Protection) Act, 1986, which prevents industrial and infrastructural projects from being approved without proper oversight.
This process ensures that every project should go through the EIA process for obtaining prior environmental clearance.
EIA covers projects such as mining of coal or other minerals, infrastructure development, thermal, nuclear and hydropower projects, real estate and other industrial projects.
The projects are assessed based on their potential impact on the environment. Based on the assessments, they are granted or denied environmental clearance by a panel of experts.
Loopholes in draft EIA 2020
The EIA new draft 2020 allows post-facto clearance.
This means that even if a project has come up without environmental safeguards or without getting environment clearances, it could carry out operation under the provision of the new draft EIA 2020.
This is disastrous because we already have several projects that are running without EIA clearances.
Lt Governor has dismissed 11 Jammu and Kashmir government employees for alleged terror links under provisions of Article 311(2)(c) of the Constitution.
What is Article 311?
Article 311 of the Constitution deals with ‘Dismissal, removal or reduction in rank of persons employed in civil capacities under the Union or a State’.
Under Article 311(2), no civil servant can be “dismissed or removed or reduced in rank except after an inquiry in which he has been informed of the charges and given a reasonable opportunity of being heard in respect of those charges’’.
Subsection (c) of the provision, however, says this clause shall not apply “where the President or the Governor, as the case may be, is satisfied that in the interest of the security of the State it is not expedient to hold such inquiry”.
Remedy available
The only available remedy to a terminated employee is to challenge the government’s decision in the High Court.
The Union Cabinet has approved of the term of the Commission constituted under Article 340 of the Constitution to examine the issue of Sub-categorization within Other Backward Classes (OBCs) in the Central List.
What is the Sub-categorization of OBCs?
OBCs are granted 27% reservation in jobs and education under the central government.
In September 20202, a Constitution Bench of the Supreme Court reopened the legal debate on the sub-categorization of SCs and STs for reservations.
The debate arises out of the perception that only a few affluent communities among over 2,600 included in the Central List of OBCs have secured a major part of this 27% reservation.
Need for sub-categorization
The argument for sub-categorization — or creating categories within OBCs for reservation — is that it would ensure “equitable distribution” of representation among all OBC communities.
To examine this, the Rohini Commission was constituted on October 2, 2017.
At that time, it was given 12 weeks to submit its report but has been given several extensions since, the latest one being the 10th.
Before the Rohini Commission was set up, the Centre had granted constitutional status to the National Commission for Backward Classes (NCBC).
Why so many extensions are being given?
In process of preparing the sub-categorized central list of OBCs, the Commission has noted several ambiguities in the list as it stands now.
The Commission is of the opinion that these have to be clarified/rectified before the sub-categorised central list is prepared.
A hurdle for the Commission has been the absence of data for the population of various communities to compare with their representation in jobs and admissions.
Many groups of OBCs have been demanding enumeration of OBCs in the Census.
Back2Basics: Article 340
Article 340 of the Indian Constitution lays down conditions for the appointment of a Commission to investigate the conditions of the backward classes.
The President may by order appoint a Commission consisting of such persons as he thinks fit to investigate the conditions of socially and educationally backward classes within the territory of India.
The Union Cabinet has approved the continuation of the Centrally Sponsored Scheme (CSS) for the Development of Infrastructure Facilities for Judiciary. It also approved the decision to support the Gram Nyayalayas by proving recurring and non-recurring grants for a period of 5 years with a total outlay of Rs 50 crores.
About the Scheme
A Centrally Sponsored Scheme (CSS) for Development of Infrastructure Facilities for Judiciary has been in operation since 1993-94.
Adequacy of judicial infrastructure is critical for the reduction of pendency and backlog of cases in Courts.
The primary responsibility of infrastructure development for the subordinate judiciary rests with the State Governments.
The present proposal provides for additional activities like the construction of lawyer halls, toilets complexes and digital computer rooms.
This will add to the convenience of lawyers and litigants besides reducing the digital divide.
Why such a move?
Adequacy of judicial infrastructure is critical for the reduction of pendency and backlog of cases in Courts.
Several courts are still functioning in rented premises with insufficient space and some in dilapidated conditions without basic amenities.
Well-equipped judicial infrastructure facilitates the administration of justice in a manner that allows easy access and timely delivery of justice to all.
What is Gram Nyayalayas Scheme?
Gram Nyayalayas were established for speedy and easy access to the justice system in the rural areas across the country.
The Gram Nyayalayas Act came into force on October 2, 2009.
In terms of Section 3(1) of the Act, it is for the State Governments to establish Gram Nyayalayas in consultation with the respective High Courts.
The Act authorizes Gram Nyayalaya to hold a mobile court outside its headquarters.
Some major reasons behind the non-enforcement include financial constraints, the reluctance of lawyers, police and other government officials.
Features of the Gram Nyayalayas
Gram Nyayalaya is established generally at headquarter of every Panchayat at the intermediate level or a group of contiguous panchayat in a district where there is no panchayat at an intermediate level.
The Gram Nyayalayas are presided over by a Nyayadhikari, who will have the same power, enjoy the same salary and benefits of a Judicial Magistrate of First Class.
Such Nyayadhikari is to be appointed by the State Government in consultation with the respective High Court.
Jurisdiction
A Gram Nyayalaya have jurisdiction over an area specified by a notification by the State Government in consultation with the respective High Court.
The Court can function as a mobile court at any place within the jurisdiction of such Gram Nyayalaya, after giving wide publicity to that regard.
The Gram Nyayalayas have both civil and criminal jurisdiction over the offences and nature of suits specified in the First, Second and Third schedule of the Act.
The pecuniary jurisdiction of the Nyayalayas are fixed by the respective High Courts.
Appeals in criminal matter can be made to the Sessions Court in the respective jurisdiction and in civil matters to the District Court within a period of one month from the date of judgment.
Trials
Gram Nyayalayas can follow special procedures in civil matters, in a manner it deem just and reasonable in the interest of justice.
Civil suits are proceeded on a day-to-day basis, with limited adjournments and are to be disposed of within a period of six months from the date of institution of the suit.
In execution of a decree, the Court can allow special procedures following rules of natural justice.
Gram Nyayalayas allow for conciliation of the dispute and settlement of the same in the first instance.
They have been given the power to accept certain evidence which would otherwise not be acceptable under the Indian Evidence Act.
But the quest for sustained higher growth has been elusive for India for the last five years. The pandemic seems to make it more elusive.
The magnitude of contraction in the economy
There is nothing encouraging in the provisional estimates of annual national income (2020-21), released by the National Statistical Office.
The agriculture sector continued its impressive growth performance, reiterating that it still remains as the vital sector of the economy, especially at times of crisis.
The manufacturing sector continued its subdued growth performance, failing to emerge as the growth driver.
The contraction in trade (-18.2%), construction (-8.6%), mining (-8.5%) and manufacturing (-7.2%) is a matter of concern as these sectors account for the bulk of low-skilled jobs.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q4 of 2020-21 is showing a growth of 1.6%.
The magnitude of contraction in the economy and the policy responses towards it raises an important issue of growth prospects for the next year.
Contextualising the current growth rates in terms of following three macroeconomic data would provide us a better perspective on growth recovery.
1) Rising unemployment
The unemployment data released by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) says, that in May 2021, India’s labour participation rate at 40 per cent was the same as it was in April 2021.
But, the unemployment rate shot up to 11.9 per cent from 8 per cent in April.
A stable labour participation rate combined with a higher unemployment rate implies a loss of jobs and a fall in the employment rate.
The employment rate fell to 35.3 per cent in May 2021 from 36.8 per cent in April 2021.
According to CMIE, over 15 million jobs were lost in May 2021.
May 2021 was therefore a particularly stressful month on the jobs front.
Takeaway
Employment and aggregate demand in an economy are related via the channel of disposable incomes of workers.
Aggregate demand and output growth have a positive correlation.
Hence, the prospects of growth revival in the next year look bleak at the moment and from employment perspective.
2) Low business confidence
It is the second important data point that needs to examined.
Business confidence index (BCI), from the survey by the industry body FICCI, plummeted to 51.5 from 74.2 in the previous round.
The survey also highlights the weak demand conditions in the economy.
Compounding this is the uncertainty arising out of the imposition of localised curbs due to the second wave of infections and a muddled vaccine policy in the country.
3) Low PMI
Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) has slipped to a 10-month low indicating that the manufacturing sector is showing signs of strain with growth projections being revised lower.
Both BCI and PMI slipping down indicates that the overall optimism towards 2021-22 is low, which could impact investments and cause further job losses.
Why focusing on supply-side will not work
Since last year, the policy responses have been to rely on credit easing, focusing more on supply side measures.
This policy stance is unlikely to prop up growth for three reasons.
First, the bulk of the policy measures, including the most recent, are supply side measures and not on the demand side.
Second, large parts of all the stimulus packages announced till now would work only in the medium term.
Third, the use of credit backstops as the main plank of policy has limits compared to any direct measure on the demand side as this could result in poor growth performance if private investments do not pick up.
Further, the credit easing approach would take a longer time to multiply incomes as lending involves a lender’s discretion and borrower’s obligation.
Way forward
Growth recovery depends on demand recovery.
The combined increase in exports of April and May 2021 is over 12% indicating that global demand rebound is much faster than the domestic demand.
What needs to be addressed immediately is the crisis of low domestic demand.
A tight-fisted fiscal policy approach comes at a time when conventional fiscal stimulus packages might not be enough as supply side issues arising out of episodic lockdowns need to be addressed simultaneously.
Focusing on short-term magnified growth rates resting on low bases might be erroneous, as income levels matter more than growth rates at this juncture.
Conclusion
India needs a sharp revival of demand for which higher per capita incomes are necessary.
India has a nearly 34-year window of opportunity to leverage its human resources and realize its growth potential before a phase of demographic burden sets in. This period will coincide with another important part of India’s growth story: the pursuit of high-income status. Too many countries have failed to make the leap from the middle-income to high-income group, afflicted by a malady now commonly referred to as ‘the middle-income trap’.
What is the middle-income trap?
The “middle-income trap” is a theory of economic development in which a country lost its competitive edge in the export of manufactured goods because of rising wages.
The wages rise to the point that the growth potential of that country is exhausted before it attains the innovative capability needed to boost productivity and compete with developed countries.
The countries caught in the Middle Income Trap are unable to compete with low-income, low-wage economies in manufactured exports and with advanced economies in high-skill innovations.
The middle-income trap is associated with a relatively sustained growth slowdown with both direct effects (e.g. income losses) as well as indirect effects (e.g. social conflicts).
Fuelled by the global slowdown, many countries, particularly in South East Asia, Africa and Latin America currently face the predicament of the Middle-income trap.
This has impeded their transition from middle income to high income.
What is the basis for the categorization of countries?
World Bank has used the 2018 data of gross national income (GNI) per capita to categorize countries into the following four categories:
Category
Real Per-Capita Income* (2016)
Low-Income Countries (LICs)
Less than 5% of the US.
Lower Middle-Income Countries (LMICs)
About 5-15% of the US
Upper Middle-Income Countries (UMICs)
About 15-35% of the US.
High-Income Countries (HICs)
All those above that line – including some above US’ level.
Why do Countries fall into the Middle Income Trap?
Inability to shift growth strategies: If a country cannot make a timely transition from resource-driven growth, with low-cost labor and capital, to productivity-driven growth, it might find itself trapped in the middle-income zone.
Lower export potential: Traditional exports cannot be as easily expanded as before because wages are higher and cost competitiveness declines. Middle-income countries also face varying levels of access to product and financial markets and diverse social, economic and environmental vulnerabilities.
Skewed income distribution & stagnation in middle-class population: Wealth inequality and the hierarchical distribution of income in developing countries is a downward drag on domestic demand, which results in stagnation. It slows down the upward mobility of families that are at lower levels, into the middle class that is prepared to pay more for quality and differentiated products.
Recurring boom-bust cycles & pro-cyclical lending: Many middle-income countries in Latin America have been through cycles of growth based on credit extended during commodity booms, followed by crisis, and then recovery. This stop–go cycle has prevented them from becoming advanced economies despite enjoying many periods of fast growth. This is in sharp contrast with successful countries in East Asia—Japan, Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, and South Korea that have been able to sustain high growth over some 50 years.
India’s Case
In 1960, India was a low-income country with per capita income around 6% of the US. However India attained status of lower middle income in 2008 with per capita income of about 12% of the US.
But the growth has occurred with limited transfer of labor resources to high productivity and dynamic sectors, despite relatively modest agricultural growth.
Thus, the late converger stall risk remains for India too.
Why India might get caught in a middle-income trap?
(1) Backlash against globalization:
Hyper globalization (benefited the China, South Korea & Japan) led to a backlash in the advanced countries, as seen through increasing protectionism & lowering World Trade-GDP ratios since 2011.
This means that similar trading opportunities may no longer be available for the middle-income countries.
(2) Thwarted Structural Transformation:
The manufacturing sector is identified as a critically important sector for ensuring transformation. Successful development requires two kinds of structural transformations:
a shift of resources from low productivity to high productivity sectors; and
a larger share of resources devoted to sectors that have the potential for rapid productivity growth.
However, in late economies like India, ‘premature deindustrialization’ (tendency for manufacturing to peak at lower levels of activity and earlier in the development process) is a major cause of concern.
Also, there is a negative share of good growth over time along with weakening of the positive correlation between growth and good growth.
There are various outliers to the convergence process in this regard like India and China. China’s good growth persists and India’s share of the same declined.
(3) Human Capital Regression:
Human capital frontier for the new structural transformation has shifted further away making the transformation costlier.
This is because the new advances in technology not only require skilled human capital, but also demands them to learn continually.
As opposed to these requirements, there is a wider educational attainment gap and skill deficit between lower income countries and advanced economies.
If this gap persists or widens, the kind of transformation enjoyed by the early convergers might prove more difficult for late convergers.
This gap is highly stark for India given its absolute Learning Poverty Count between 40-50% and Learning Poverty Gap is about 25% for reading and a little lower for math.
(4) Climate change-induced Agricultural Stress:
Agricultural productivity is crucial both for feeding people and for ensuring human capital moves from agriculture to modern sectors.
The agricultural growth rates of richer countries have been consistently greater than for developing countries in each time period.
With climate change, weather extremities have become a recurrent phenomenon. This is, in particular, a threat to India where agriculture is heavily dependent on precipitation.
Fall in private consumption, muted rise in fixed investment and sluggish exports have led to a slowdown in the economy and increase India’s vulnerability to the middle-income trap.
Learning Poverty Count- measures the number of children who do not meet the basic learning benchmark. Learning Poverty Gap- Takes into account how far each student is from the benchmark.
Avoiding the Middle Income Trap
In 1960, India was a low-income country with per capita income around 6% of the US. However, India attained the status of lower middle income in 2008 with per capita income of about 12% of the US.
But, the growth has occurred with limited transfer of labor resources to high productivity and dynamic sectors, despite relatively modest agricultural growth.
Thus, the risk of getting trapped in a middle-income zone remains.
To avoid becoming trapped without a viable high-growth strategy, India needs to:
(1) Transitioning from diversification to specialization in production:
Specialization allowed the middle-income Asian countries to reap economies of scale and offset the cost of disadvantages associated with higher wages (E.g. Electronics industry in South Korea).
High levels of investment in new technologies and innovation-conducive policies are two overarching requirements to ensure specialized production.
Developing good social-safety nets and skill-retraining programs can ease the restructuring process that accompanies specialization.
(2) Shifting to productivity-led growth:
Total factor-productivity growth requires major changes in education, from primary & secondary schooling to tertiary education so that workers adept new skills as per the demands of the markets.
Creating such knowledge economy requires long term planning and investment.
Middle-income countries need better access to technologies, research, and innovation, and also better management practices.
That requires redesigning development strategies and gradually shifting to higher-value-added sectors with a focus on innovative, sustainable and inclusive growth.
(3) Opportunities for professional talent:
To attract and retain a critical mass of professional talent that is becoming more internationally mobile, India must develop safe & livable cities that provide attractive lifestyles to professionals.
(4) Addressing barriers to effective competition:
There is a need to address rigidities that can arise from bankruptcy laws, stringent tax regulations, limited enforcement of IP regulations, imperfect information, discrimination etc.
(5) Decentralized economic management:
Greater powers should be vested in local governments, address the insufficiency of judges in lower courts, etc. to ensure speedier decision making.
(6) Sustaining macroeconomic stability:
Flexible fiscal framework that limited deficits and debt, and a flexible exchange rate mechanism backed up by a credible inflation-targeting monetary policy could help sustain long periods of growth.
Effective restructuring, regulating, and supervising of the financial sector must be ensured so that the present NPA crisis can be effectively handled.
(7) Changing orientation of social programs:
Social programs should target the middle class as well as poorer sections of society.
Ramping up domestic demand is also important—an expanding middle class can use its increasing purchasing power to buy high-quality, innovative products and help drive growth.
Inequality is a barrier to the broadening of the demand base in an economy.
This could be achieved through initiatives like low-cost housing for first-time homebuyers in cities, programs to ensure that recent graduates get suitable employment opportunities, etc.
Way forward
Rapidly improving human capital–– healthy individuals, including all women, with the basic education to continually learn and adapt––will be key to sustaining India’s dynamic growth trajectory.
Rapidly improving agricultural productivity––against the headwinds of climate change and water scarcity––will be another key to achieving good growth and hence sustainable growth.
And, of course, the hyper globalization backlash in advanced countries, over which India has little control, must recede to create a favorable external climate to sustain rapid growth.
There is no Late Converger Stall, as yet, but it would be wise to act to head it off.
