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This year, India is expected to be the world’s largest cotton producer, surpassing China in output. However, India’s productivity (yield per unit area), is much lower than other major cotton-producing countries.
India’s experience with cotton
India is the only country growing hybrids: India is the only country that grows cotton as hybrids and the first to develop hybrid cotton back in 1970.
What are hybrids: Hybrids are made by crossing two parent strains having different genetic characters.
Greater yields: These plants have more biomass than both parents, and capacity for greater yields.
Require more inputs: They also require more inputs, including fertilizer and water.
Expensive seed production: Though hybrid cottonseed production is expensive, requiring manual crossing, India’s low cost of manual labour makes it economically viable.
Rest of the countries: All other cotton-producing countries grow cotton, not as hybrids but varieties for which seeds are produced by self-fertilization.
Key issues with the use of hybrids
Hybrid seed cannot be propagated over generations: A key difference between hybrids and varieties is that varieties can be propagated over successive generations by collecting seeds from one planting and using them for the next planting.
Purchasing the seeds is must: Hybrid seeds have to be remade for each planting by crossing the parents. So for hybrids, farmers must purchase seed for each planting, but not for varieties.
Pricing control to the companies: Using hybrids gives pricing control to the seed company and also ensures a continuous market.
Increased yield used as justification for high prices: Increased yield from a hybrid is supposed to justify the high cost of hybrid seeds.
However, for cotton, a different strategy using high-density planting (HDP) of compact varieties has been found to outperform hybrids at the field level.
Cotton planting strategies
What other countries do?
Compact and short-duration varieties: For over three decades, most countries have been growing cotton varieties that are compact and short duration.
5kg seeds/acre: These varieties are planted at high density (5 kg seeds/acre).
These varieties have 5-10 bolls per plant.
What is done in India?
Low density and long duration: Hybrids in India are bushy, long duration and planted at a ten-fold lower density.
0.5 kg seeds/acre: Hybrids are planted at a lower density of 0.5kg/acre.
Which strategy is more beneficial?
The lower boll production by compact varieties (5-10 bolls per plant) compared to hybrids (20-100 bolls/plant) is more than compensated by the ten-fold greater planting density.
Experience of Brazil: The steep increase in productivity for Brazil, from 400 to 1,000 kg/hectare lint between 1994 and 2000 coincides with the large-scale shift to a non-GM compact variety.
Why should India opt for short duration variety?
Cotton being a dryland crop: Cotton is a dryland crop and 65% of the area under cotton in India is rain-fed.
Advantage of short duration variety in the rain-fed area: Farmers with insufficient access to groundwater in these areas are entirely dependent on rain. Here, the shorter duration variety has a major advantage as it reduces dependence on irrigation and risk.
Particularly late in the growing season when soil moisture drops following the monsoon’s withdrawal.
This period is when bolls develop and water requirement is the highest.
Productivity and input costs of the varieties: It has more than twice the productivity.
Half the fertilizer (200 kg/ha for hybrids versus 100 kg/ha for varieties).
Reduced water requirement.
And less vulnerability to damage from insect pests due to a shorter field duration.
Impact of Policy
Why India persisted with hybrids during 1980-2002
Two phases of policy have contributed to this situation.
The first phase- Before GM cotton: The answers lie with the agricultural research establishment.
The second phase: The phase where the question of hybrids versus compact varieties could have been considered, was at the stage of GM regulation when Bt cotton was being evaluated for introduction into India.
International experience not taken into account: It would not have been out of place to have evaluated the international experience, including the context of the introduction of this new technology.
Agro-economic conditions were not taken into account: Importantly, agro-economic conditions where it would be used should have been a guiding factor.
The narrow scope of evaluation: The scope of evaluation by the GM regulatory process in India was narrow, and did not take this into account.
Consequently, commercial Bt hybrids have completely taken over the market, accompanied by the withdrawal of public sector cottonseed production.
Key takeaways
Frist–Outcome of technology depends upon the context: Outcome of using a technology such as Bt is determined by the context in which it is deployed, and not just by the technology itself.
Negative fallout: If the context is suboptimal and does not prioritise the needs of the principal stakeholders (farmers), it can have significant negative fallouts, especially in India with a high proportion being marginal and subsistence farmers.
Second–Better consultation in policy: There is a need for better consultation in policy, be it agriculture as a whole or crop-wise.
Socioeconomic consideration in GMO risk assessment: India is a signatory to international treaties on GMO regulation (the Convention on Biological Diversity, and the Cartagena Protocol on Biosafety), which specifically provide for the inclusion of socio-economic considerations in GMO risk assessment.
However, socioeconomic and need-based considerations have not been a part of the GMO regulatory process in India.
Conclusion
Given the distress, the cotton-growing farmers are facing this is the right time to review the grounds on which Bt cotton was introduced in India.
In this video, Sajal sir discusses job profiles of IAS & allied services that will help you choose these services better while filling DAF for UPSC Mains & Interview.
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Out of ~2000 students selected for Interviews, ~400 were enrolled in our programs, over 1100 used our app and current affairs on a regular basis. Another 200 have used us sparingly.
We have launched the Decimate Prelims Program. We are putting in our best effort to help all our students get a competitive edge.
It is time to get serious with your preparation and we have got your back.
After numerous conversations with so many aspirants, we have started understanding your problems better and standardizing solutions for the same.
These are being incorporated into our Samanvaya program. It is these practices that will make the program more effective.
At the core of Samanvaya lies the fact that each one of you will have a unique journey while preparing for the exam. Some will get through on the first attempt without much effort while others will take both more time and more effort. We want to understand you better to help you optimize your journey so you can focus on the right things and not waste time on the wrong ones. We are asking you to tap into the valuable experiences of mentors who underwent the same grind and realize the pitfalls and understand the shortcuts to make it.
Samanvaya program involves the following –
1. Identifying your weaknesses
Over 80% of students who claimed to have revised NCERTs were unable to answer basic questions. Many were not comfortable with at least 1 GS subject and Optional. Many struggled with ‘What went wrong’ after 2-3 years of hard work.
Our mentors will help you assess your preparedness and suggest accurate strategies.
2. Strategy and study plan discussions
Over 90% of students couldn’t stick to a plan. Study plans and strategies are iterative in nature and we want to help you with that. Many are unable to perform in tests despite preparing hard. This could be due to a variety of factors – lack of adequate prep, jitters in the exam hall, inadequate revision, lack of practice of test series or just a bad day at work. Tell us what you think went wrong and we’ll figure out a way to get you over the line next time.
3. Helping you understand the exam better
Which books to read, different approaches, etc. Over 60% of students we talked to did not find NCERTs relevant and saw no point in being thorough with them.
4. Lack of motivation
We have all had those days when it’s been hard to motivate ourselves to hit the books and just study. It happens to the best of us sometimes and for some of us, it happens more frequently. And it is understandable, Civil Service preparation is a long and often lonely process. Every aspirant, from toppers to those who have quit have been overwhelmed by this process at some point.
Samanvaya Code of Conduct
Be honest with your mentors about your preparation levels and stage.
Follow their advice and participate in tests and assignments that they set for you
Stay active in the telegram groups, ask doubts, don’t hold yourself back.
Don’t expect spoonfeeding. You have to drive the initiative.
The recent global climate summit, the annual Conference of the Parties (COP25), held in Madrid was a failure and that the multilateral process to address the climate crisis is broken. The growing global stalemate gives India the chance to focus on the State and sub-State levels.
COP 25 at Madrid and what future prospects
Wealthy countries disowning responsibility: At several discussions on finance, ambition, transparency of support and pre-2020 action, wealthy countries were recalcitrant.
Disavowing obligations: Although responsible for using the bulk of the carbon space in the atmosphere, they now disavow their obligations. With some even denying anthropogenic climate change.
Complete severance of science from negotiations: At this stage, there is a complete severance of climate science from the negotiations and agreements at the global level.
The question is, what can we do now?
What can happen at the next COP?
Hope of little change: The next COP will be held at Glasgow, U.K. (in late 2020) and there may be little change in the outcomes.
The global political order may not alter much. The fact that we live in an unequal and unjust world is not going to change either.
What else can happen on the global level?
Right leader: The right political leaders could nudge action in a new direction.
Green New Deal could pass: Younger members could be elected to the U.S. Congress and the Green New Deal could pass sometime in 2021.
Growing activism: In the meantime, climate activism is increasing awareness and having some success in removing insurance and financial support for fossil fuel companies. But these kinds of changes will occur slowly.
Participation of other stakeholders at next COP: At least one expert has called for a parallel action COP at future summits where sub-state actors, civil society groups, non-governmental organisations and academics can share ideas and nudge action.
The chance for India to develop climate change action at State and Sub-state level
Chance to develop climate change action: The stalemate at the global level offers India the opportunity to focus earnestly on developing its climate change action at State and sub-State levels.
Peripheral status of climate change: In the states, the environment and climate continue to be relegated to peripheral status.
Damage to the environment: This neglect has led to the destruction of ecosystems, forests, water-bodies and biodiversity.
Vulnerability and economic costs of the neglect: Numerous studies have shown the high economic and ecological costs and loss of lives due to extreme events.
We do not need more data to stimulate action. As is also well recognised, India is extremely vulnerable to the effects of warming.
Progress made by the states so far
The first round of SAPCCs: With support from bilateral agencies, States initially took different approaches in the first round of State Action Plans on Climate Change (SAPCCs).
Some of them set up separate climate change cells while some collaborated with academic institutions.
A few produced detailed action plans while others developed strategy documents.
Still, others integrated improvements in energy efficiency (contributing to reducing emissions), while almost all focused on adaptation.
The synergy between climate change and development:
Attention to climate change offers co-benefits to India for development. For instance-
Efficiency reduces pollution: Improving energy efficiency in industry reduces costs and local pollution.
Transport and congestion: Improving public transport reduces congestion, pollution and improves access.
Natural farming and fertilisers: Using natural farming methods reduces fossil fuel-based fertilizers, improves soil health and biodiversity.
These examples show that there are synergies in the steps to be taken for good development and climate change.
Next round of SAPCCs and strategies
The next round of the SAPCCs is being drawn up, under recommendations from the Centre.
Where should be the focus? The focus ought to be on integrating the response to climate change with the development plan in different departments.
States together to contribute NDCs: Since the States together are to deliver the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) that India has promised, it means that they require guidance from the Centre.
Unfortunately, most State government departments are handling climate change as a fringe issue and do not seem to recognise its urgency.
Integration of various sectors for climate action
Identification of sectors: Line departments for government schemes and programmes in key development sectors, such as agriculture, transport and water, should be identified for carefully integrating actions that respond to climate change.
Integration at district level: This integration should also take place at district and sub-district levels. But only a demonstration of its success in some departments would show how this can be done.
The realisation of climate as an important issue: But first and foremost, States need to get the signal that climate is an urgent issue.
Funds for implementing SAPCCs
How funds for implementing SAPCCs will be obtained is not clear.
There will not be enough from the Green Climate Fund, Adaptation Fund and bilateral agencies to support all States unless new sources are found.
Use of coal cess: The coal cess in India is a good initiative, and as others have pointed out, could be used for environment and climate-related expenses.
Alternative sources: Alternative sources from high emissions’ industries and practices would be an option, but still probably insufficient.
Way forward
Performance analysis of first SAPCCs: There is also needs to be a clear analysis of how the first round of action plans fared.
Challenges and performance: What were the challenges and how did they perform?
Reasons for success and failures: Which approaches and projects were successful and ought to be scaled up and what lessons do the failures offer?
Finally, what institutional structure works best?
Need for the greenhouse gas inventory: The country needs reliable greenhouse gas inventories.
Individual research groups and the civil society initiative, GHG Platform India, have been producing such inventories.
Such inventories would be useful in synchronising and co-ordinating State and Central mitigation programmes.
Programmes with longer timelines: States must also develop their programmes with longer timelines.
With mid-course correction based on lessons and successes that can be integrated into the next stage of the plan.
If the second round of SAPCCs were treated as an entry point to long-term development strategy, the States and the country would be better prepared for climate change.
Ultimately, climate should be part and parcel of all thinking on development.
That India is in the midst of a serious economic slowdown is no longer in question. The debates are now mostly about what to do about it.
Where is the GDP growth coming from?
Fall in consumption expenditure in absolute terms: The leaked National Sample Survey (NSS) consumer expenditure data -shows that real monthly per capita expenditure has in fact fallen in absolute terms between 2011-12 and 2017-18.
8 % decline in a rural area: In rural areas, consumption expenditure decreased by 8.8 per cent.
2% decline in an urban area: While in urban areas it increased by 2 per cent, leading to an all India decline of 3.7 per cent.
Where is the growth coming from: If average consumer expenditure is down, then where is the GDP growth coming from?
Consumer expenditure contribution: After all, according to National Accounts Statistics (NAS) consumer expenditure is around 60 per cent of the GDP.
And given the other contributors to GDP-investment and government spending- are not growing spectacularly, consumer expenditure should be growing rather than decreasing.
So, to get an overall 5 per cent growth rate, consumer expenditure should be growing at higher than 5 per cent.
NSS vs. NAS- a genuine puzzle: How can consumption expenditure be going down in absolute terms according to the NSS estimates and be growing at more than 5 per cent according to the NAS?
Variation in data a norm: That these two types of estimates of consumption expenditure do not match is well-known, and that is the case in other countries as well.
The discrepancy at alarming proportions: In the 1970s, consumer expenditure according to NSS estimates was around 90 per cent of consumer expenditure according to NAS, but in 2017-18 it was only 32.3 per cent.
Data from two different countries: It is as if we are looking at data from two different countries.
One where the consumption expenditure growth is positive and propping up the GDP growth rate and the other where it is actually falling.
A few inferences that pertain to the state of the economy and the policy options.
Reasons for the discrepancy between NSS data and NAS data.
First- Presence of large informal sector:
50% contribution to GDP: Informal sector accounts for nearly half of the GDP and employs 85 per cent of the labour force.
Guesswork on performance: In national income accounts, growth in the informal sector is estimated by extrapolating from the performance of the formal sector. Which is largely guesswork.
Second- Making effects of the expansionary policy less pronounced:
Expansionary fiscal policy more effective than appear to be: Because of the presence of the informal sector, expansionary fiscal policy will be more effective than what would appear from official statistics, as a big part of its impact will be felt in the informal sector.
Why is it so? The reason is that a big segment of the population is located in the informal sector; they are poorer and tend to spend a much higher fraction of their income on consumption.
This group has been seriously affected by the economic slowdown.
Third-Results of expansionary policy would be apparent after a delay
Apparent effects of policy much worse than what it would be: The effect of an expansionary policy on the budget deficit will look much worse than what it would be since the estimates of its effect on income expansion and tax collection will be largely based on the formal sector.
Informal sector boosting the formal sector: Some of the income generated in the informal sector will boost demand in the formal sector through consumer demand for mass-consumption items (for instance, biscuits, as opposed to automobiles).
Good medium-term pictures: Therefore, in the medium term, once the engine of the economy starts moving, the income expansion and deficit numbers will look better.
Final-Tax cuts will achieve little
Only 3-5% population affected: The tax cut will affect barely 3-5 per cent of the adult population.
Contribution of taxes in GDP: Income tax revenues amount to around 5 per cent of the GDP and corporate income taxes around 3.3 per cent.
Rich tends to save more: Most of the tax is paid by the richest among these groups (the top 5 per cent taxpayers contribute 60 per cent of individual income tax revenue), and the rich tend to spend a smaller fraction of their income (and save more).
Little impact on GDP: Irrespective of the number of people affected, and even if they spend the entire increase in their income as a result of the tax cut, the overall economic impact will be small relative to the GDP.
The futility of tax cut: Therefore, a tax cut for the rich would be less effective in raising spending compared to an equivalent amount being given to poorer groups who spend a much higher fraction of their incomes.
Conclusion
The government should not underestimate the role of the informal sector in the economy. To get the engine of the economy revving, an expansionary fiscal policy that harnesses the energy of the informal sector to boost aggregate demand is the order of the day.
The latest edition of the Democracy Index spells gloom for India. The world’s biggest democracy slipped 10 places in the 2019 global ranking to 51st place.
Democracy Index
The report is published by The Economist Intelligence Unit — the research and analysis division of The Economist Group, which is the sister company to The Economist newspaper.
It records how global democracy fared, analysing 165 independent states and two territories.
The 2019 survey attributes the primary cause of “the democratic regression” to “an erosion of civil liberties in the country”.
India’s performance
India’s overall score fell from 7.23 to 6.9, on a scale of 0-10, within a year (2018-2019) — the country’s lowest since 2006.
India was graded in electoral process and pluralism (8.67), government functioning (6.79), political participation (6.67), political culture (5.63) and civil liberties (6.76).
In the Asia and Australasia region, India ranks eighth, behind Taiwan and Timor-Leste.
The report talks about the repeal of both Article 370 and Article 35A and various restrictions such as house arrests, internet shutdowns and excessive use of forces.
India: A flawed democracy?
The Index also categorizes India under “flawed democracies”, i.e. countries that hold free and fair elections and where basic civil liberties are respected, but have significant weaknesses in aspects of democracy, such as problems in governance, an underdeveloped political culture and low levels of political participation.
The report World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2020 (WESO) was recently released.
About the Report
The WESO report is an initiative of the International Labour Organization (ILO).
ILO forecasts that unemployment will rise by about 2.5 million this year.
The ILO is a UN agency whose mandate is to advance social justice and promote decent work by setting international labour standards.
The report analyses key labour market issues, including unemployment, labour underutilization, working poverty, income inequality, labour income share and factors that exclude people from decent work.
Highlights of the report
Global unemployment is projected to increase by around 2.5 million in 2020.
The number of people unemployed around the world stands at some 188 million.
In addition, 165 million people do not have enough paid work, and 120 million have either given up actively searching for work or otherwise lack access to the labour market.
In total, more than 470 million people worldwide are affected, the report said.
Almost half a billion people are working fewer paid hours than they would like or lack adequate access to paid work.
Not enough new jobs are being generated to absorb new entrants to the labour market.
Data on working poverty
Currently working poverty (defined as earning less than USD 3.20 per day in purchasing power parity terms) affects more than 630 million workers, or one in five of the global working population.
Inequalities related to gender, age and geographical location continue to plague the job market, with the report showing that these factors limit both individual opportunity and economic growth.
Some 267 million young people aged 15-24 are not in employment, education or training, and many more endure substandard working condition.
The top five risks to humanity are recently published in the Global Risks Report of the World Economic Forum (WEF).
Top five risks
An important finding of the report is that today’s younger generation, consisting of “Millenials” born after 1980 have ranked environmental risks higher than other older respondents in the short- and long-terms.
According to the report, the top five risks by likelihood over the next decade are:
Extreme weather events like floods and storms
Failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation
Major natural disasters like earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions and geomagnetic storms
Major biodiversity losses and ecosystem collapse
Human-made environmental damage and disasters
Top 5 risks by severity of impact over the next 10 years
Failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation
Extreme weather events + failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation
Large-scale cyber-attacks + breakdown of critical information infrastructure and networks
High structural unemployment or underemployment + adverse consequences of technological advances
Major biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse + failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation
Food crises + extreme weather events
Other risks
The report also warned about the increasing economic and societal costs due to non-communicable diseases and the lack of research on vaccines and drug resistance to address the threat of pandemics in the recent future.
“Economic confrontations” and “domestic political polarization” are significant short-term risks in 2020, the report said.
This is a warning for the global South including India and Africa where social unrest has seen a rise. For example, unrest has grown among India’s youth.
