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Subject: Economics

  • In a first, Rlys to build 6 freight lines with pvt firms using highways’ hybrid funding model

    Why in the News

    The Public Private Partnership Appraisal Committee under the Ministry of Finance has approved six railway lines spanning 647 km along freight corridors, to be built under the Hybrid Annuity Model. This is the first time Indian Railways will implement a project under the model, which was developed for the highways sector to split project costs and risks between the government and the private builder. The Committee had earlier given in principle approval to the same projects under the Design, Build, Finance, Operate and Transfer (DBFOT) model, and switched to the Hybrid Annuity Model after market feedback. The tension is that attracting private capital required Indian Railways to keep the traffic and tariff risk on its own books, so the financing burden moves. The demand risk does not move with it.

    How does the Hybrid Annuity Model work here?

    1. The construction cost is split: Indian Railways pays 40 percent of the bid project cost as a grant during the construction period. The private party finances the remaining 60 percent.
    2. Repayment begins after commissioning: Once the line is operational, Indian Railways repays the private party’s 60 percent through annuity instalments, plus interest on the annuity.
    3. Maintenance is paid separately: Indian Railways also makes regular payments to the concessionaire for maintenance of stations, tracks and other assets.
    4. Operations stay public: Indian Railways operates the trains and collects all freight revenue.

    Which lines were cleared and what will they carry?

    1. Four of the six lines are in Odisha: These are the 49.58 km Balaram-Putgadia-Tentuloi inner corridor, the 112.56 km Budhapank-Tentuloi-Luburi outer corridor, the 101.26 km Jajpur-Keonjhar Road-Aradi-Dhamara Port line, and the 48.96 km line from Tikiri Station to the Waltair bauxite mines.
    2. Telangana carries the longest line: The 207.80 km Manuguru to Ramagundam line is the single largest of the six.
    3. Jharkhand carries the sixth: The 126.52 km Pakur to Godda line completes the set.
    4. Coal dominates the freight mix: The key commodities on these routes are primarily coal, along with iron ore, bauxite, coke, chemical manure, cement and food grains.

    What does the switch away from DBFOT change?

    1. Risk allocation moved to the public side: The Ministry of Railways would bear the traffic and tariff risks under the proposed structure, per the minutes of the Committee meeting held on 1 August.
    2. The private party is insulated from demand shortfalls: If freight loading or revenue falls below target, the private party is not penalised.
    3. Bid conditions remain to be fixed: The request for proposal will specify the minimum tenure of the agreement, the roles of the engineering, procurement and construction contractor, and the circumstances in which such arrangements are permitted.

    What is the money and the sequence?

    1. Two cost figures govern the projects: The total bid project cost of the six lines is Rs 15,976 crore, and the total capital cost covering the entire concession period is Rs 40,866 crore.
    2. The concession runs 17 to 19 years: That period covers construction, operation and the annuity repayments.
    3. Approval is not yet final: The projects go to the Union Cabinet before bids are invited.
    4. The build starts at the end of the decade: Bidding is expected in the 2027-28 financial year and construction of all six projects is proposed to commence from April 2028.

    Where does this sit in the Railways’ private investment record?

    1. Completed projects are modest in value: 18 projects worth Rs 16,686 crore have been completed through the public private partnership model in Indian Railways.
    2. Seven are under implementation: These are worth Rs 16,362 crore and include coal and port connectivity projects.
    3. The pipeline is far larger than the record: 49 other projects, costing around Rs 1.80 lakh crore, await execution under the partnership mode.
    4. The policy menu was widened deliberately: Indian Railways recently added the Hybrid Annuity Model and the Development Partner Model to its participative policy, to overcome financial bottlenecks and attract long term private capital.

    Challenges to the Hybrid Annuity Model in railways

    1. Annuity payments create long dated committed liabilities: Deferring 60 percent of the cost converts a capital expenditure decision into a fixed claim on operating revenue for nearly two decades. Eg. The National Highways Authority of India’s annuity and deferred payment obligations under its hybrid annuity projects have become a standing charge on its balance sheet. Fix. Publish a consolidated annuity liability statement alongside the Railway budget so the future claim is visible when the project is sanctioned.
    2. Freight demand is concentrated in a single commodity: Corridors built primarily for coal are exposed to a policy driven decline in thermal coal movement over the concession period. Eg. Coal accounts for roughly half of Indian Railways’ freight tonnage and a larger share of its freight earnings. Fix. Structure the corridors for multi commodity handling and terminal access rather than dedicated colliery to plant movement.
    3. Land acquisition and forest clearance drive the delay risk: Mineral corridors in Odisha and Jharkhand cross forest land and scheduled areas where consent and clearance timelines are unpredictable. Eg. Rail connectivity projects to mining belts have run past a decade waiting on forest clearance and rehabilitation settlements. Fix. Make financial closure conditional on prior possession of a defined share of the alignment, as the highways sector now requires.
    4. Dispute resolution has been the weak link in the highways precedent: Disagreements over cost variation, change of scope and delay attribution have taken years in arbitration. Eg. Arbitration claims against the highways authority have run into tens of thousands of crore rupees across concession disputes. Fix. Provide for a standing independent engineer with binding interim determinations written into the concession agreement.

    Conclusion

    The design question the model leaves open is whether shifting the financing burden to private balance sheets actually reduces the state’s exposure or merely reschedules it. Demand risk is retained on the public balance sheet either way. What to watch is the bid response once the Union Cabinet clears the projects and the request for proposal is issued, since the number of qualified bidders is the only real test of whether the risk split is priced as attractive.

    Back2Basics

    1. Location: It functions under the Department of Economic Affairs in the Ministry of Finance.
    2. Mandate: It appraises and approves central sector public private partnership projects above a specified cost threshold.
    3. Composition: It is chaired by the Secretary, Department of Economic Affairs, with the sponsoring ministry and the planning and legal departments represented.
    4. Process: It grants in principle approval at the project structuring stage and final approval before the project is placed before the Union Cabinet.

    Matching Previous Year Question

    “[2022, GS3, 10 marks] Why is Public Private Partnership (PPP) required in infrastructural projects? Examine the role of PPP model in the redevelopment of Railway Stations in India.”

  • Worries behind India’s robust GDP, inflation data

    Why in the News

    Six months into the West Asia war, India’s headline macroeconomic numbers have held up against the deterioration forecast for them. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth for the first quarter is put at 7 to 7.5 percent, retail inflation sits near the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) target of 4 percent, and the current account deficit is 0.3 percent of GDP. The forecasts had assumed the opposite, since the war was expected to raise crude oil prices and cut foreign investment, and El Nino conditions (a periodic warming of the eastern Pacific that shifts monsoon rainfall over India) threatened food production. The tension is that each of the three headline numbers rests on a support that can reverse within a quarter, so the resilience is a matter of composition rather than of structure.

    Why were the macro numbers expected to deteriorate?

    1. The war was expected to work through crude and capital: Higher crude oil prices and a reduction in foreign investment were the two channels analysts identified after the United States and Israel went to war with Iran.
    2. Inflation was projected to triple: The rate was expected to rise from 2 percent in 2025-26 to near 6 percent, moving from the lower end of the RBI’s comfort zone to its upper limit.
    3. The rupee carried the visible damage: The war exposed persistent weaknesses in the economy, expressed most sharply in the fall of the rupee’s exchange rate.
    4. Household consumption was asked to adjust: The Prime Minister appealed to citizens to stop gold purchases and reduce fuel consumption, among other measures.

    What is actually holding up the growth number?

    1. Monetary easing has begun to transmit: The repo rate, the rate at which the RBI lends to commercial banks, was cut by 125 basis points between December 2024 and December 2025, and transmission into faster growth typically takes a couple of quarters.
    2. Indirect tax cuts raised purchasing power: Cuts in the Goods and Services Tax in 2025 lowered prices and lifted economic activity.
    3. Exports to the United States recovered: India’s exports rose as the tariffs imposed by the United States were removed.
    4. Manufacturers produced ahead of demand: Firms front loaded production because they were anxious about future energy availability.
    5. The estimates cluster above 7 percent: A research database of 100 growth indicators points to 7 to 7.5 percent for April, May and June, and one domestic bank’s research team projects 8 percent.

    Why is headline inflation low, and what does the average conceal?

    1. The headline rate is contained but rising: Monthly retail inflation has moved up since October and remains near the RBI’s 4 percent target level.
    2. The restraint is not the usual kind: Inflation ordinarily stays muted because growth is muted, and here it has stayed muted despite supply pressures and with demand holding up.
    3. Goods inflation is already at 5.4 percent: Food inflation and non food goods inflation together averaged 5.4 percent year on year in July.
    4. Services inflation is doing the masking: Services inflation is at 2.5 percent, and a rise from that level, reflecting growth better, would push the headline number up quickly.

    How is the current account deficit being held at 0.3 percent of GDP?

    1. The current account measures net flows on trade: It is the net amount of money moving in or out of India as it trades goods and services with the world, and a country importing more than it exports runs a deficit on it.
    2. The goods side is deteriorating: The goods trade deficit is growing, which is the normal consequence of fast growth and costlier imports.
    3. Services and remittances are funding the gap: Rising services exports and remittances from Indians working abroad are offsetting the increase in the goods deficit.
    4. The funding source is itself uncertain: Services exports have grown at a softer pace this year, and the effect of artificial intelligence on services export growth is unsettled.

    What do the credit numbers signal beneath the growth rate?

    1. Credit growth is partly guaranteed rather than commercial: A new government credit guarantee scheme for small firms accounts for part of the rise in loans.
    2. Working capital demand reflects costlier inputs: Borrowing has risen because higher commodity prices have raised working capital needs.
    3. Gold loan growth is a stress marker: The proliferation of gold loans functions as an indicator of household financial distress rather than of expansion.
    4. Front loading borrows from the next quarter: Manufacturing brought forward can be followed by a lull, and agricultural growth can weaken if El Nino strengthens.

    Challenges to sustaining India’s growth and inflation mix

    1. Import dependence on crude oil transmits every external shock: India imports the large majority of the crude oil it consumes, so a price shock lands directly on the trade balance and on the fuel component of retail inflation. Eg. The 2022 crude price surge after the Ukraine war pushed retail inflation above the RBI’s 6 percent upper tolerance band for three consecutive quarters. Fix. Expand the strategic petroleum reserve and diversify long term crude contracts away from a single supplier region.
    2. Exchange rate depreciation feeds imported inflation: A weaker rupee raises the domestic price of imported fuel, edible oil, fertiliser and electronics regardless of domestic demand conditions. Eg. Edible oil prices in India track palm oil import costs from Indonesia and Malaysia, where India buys the bulk of its supply. Fix. Deepen the domestic oilseed and fertiliser production base so that the depreciation pass through covers a smaller import basket.
    3. Services led growth generates limited employment: The sector’s share of output far exceeds its share of jobs, so a growth rate driven by services does not translate into proportionate hiring. Eg. Information technology services contribute a large share of exports. They employ a small fraction of the non farm workforce. Fix. Tie production and export incentives to verified employment creation rather than to output or investment alone.
    4. Private capital expenditure has not led the cycle: Growth supported by rate cuts, tax cuts and front loaded production rests on policy stimulus rather than on a durable investment upturn. Eg. Central government capital expenditure has carried the investment cycle since the pandemic, with private corporate investment recovering later and unevenly. Fix. Resolve land, contract enforcement and clearance delays that raise the fixed cost of a new private project.

    Conclusion

    The headline numbers are steady because one sector is covering for the others. That is a composition rather than a structure, and a composition can change inside a quarter. The marker to watch is whether services inflation rises at the same time as services exports weaken, since that pairing would force the central bank to raise rates and take the growth number with it.

    Matching Previous Year Question

    “[2021, GS3, 10 marks] Explain the difference between computing methodology of India’s Gross Domestic Product(GDP) before the year 2015 and after the year 2015.”

  • ‘CAS is a move in the right direction, but the timing may not be right’

    Why in the News

    The Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) has replaced the method used to fix closing prices on the stock exchanges with a Closing Auction Session (CAS), implemented at the start of this month. The earlier method took the volume weighted average price (VWAP), the average price of the last 30 minutes of trading, which a large order placed in the closing moments could tilt. The change follows the Jane Street episode, after which the regulator concluded that the earlier method could be moved in a participant’s favour. Traders hold that the direction of the change is right and the timing is not, since Indian markets carry far higher retail participation than the institution driven markets the mechanism was borrowed from.

    How does the Closing Auction Session work?

    1. Normal trading closes at 3.15 pm: Trading runs as usual until 3.15 pm, and all pending limit and market orders are carried forward into the CAS. Stop loss orders are removed from the system.
    2. Reference prices are computed through the session: Exchanges calculate reference prices from 3.15 pm to 3.30 pm.
    3. Order types narrow as the session runs: Market or limit orders may be placed between 3.20 pm and 3.25 pm (a market order executes at the prevailing price, a limit order executes only at the price stated by the trader). From 3.25 pm only limit orders are accepted.
    4. The close is randomised: The session ends at a random time between 3.27 pm and 3.30 pm. Derivatives continue to trade until 3.40 pm.

    Why did SEBI move away from the volume weighted average price method?

    1. The weakness in an average: A large quantity traded in the closing moments moves the average, so the preceding 30 minutes count for little in the final price.
    2. The trigger for the review: The regulator concluded after the Jane Street episode that the closing price under the earlier method could be tilted.
    3. Global practice: Auction based closes are already used in developed markets, including the United States and the United Kingdom.
    4. Institutional demand: Financial institutions and global players pitched the auction as the better mechanism for determining closing prices.

    What does the auction change for participants?

    1. Participation replaces dependence on a single print: The closing price is formed from orders placed in the auction rather than from a computed average, which makes price discovery more broad based.
    2. Orders are no longer tied to the closing price: A participant can place an order at a higher or lower price according to their own requirement, instead of matching at whatever the closing price turns out to be.

    Why are volumes in the session thin?

    1. Participants are still adjusting: The session is new, and a change in market structure is first thought over and played out with caution before it is used.
    2. The matching price is not visible: Price matching runs for five to seven minutes behind the scenes, so a participant does not know the price at which an order will match.
    3. Part execution is the likely outcome: An order placed two per cent away from the market carries no certainty that the full quantity will be executed, and under executions are the more likely result.
    4. The largest volume generators are absent: Arbitrage firms and proprietary trading firms are sitting out, since the session gives them neither the time nor the visibility to hedge in the futures and options (F&O) segment. They do not run unhedged positions.

    Why is the timing of the change contested?

    1. Market maturity: The Indian market is not yet mature enough for a mechanism designed for markets where participants have full information on when and how to participate.
    2. Retail share is higher than in comparable markets: India has much higher retail participation than other major markets, which are institution driven, and retail awareness of the new session is still at an early stage.
    3. A longer parallel run was possible: The session could have been run in simulation or in parallel with the earlier system for longer, giving participants time to get used to it before implementation.
    4. Small orders may not find a match: Most retail investors trade in small ticket sizes, so a large institutional order placed in the session is unlikely to be matched.
    5. Leverage pulls retail elsewhere: Retail traders prefer the derivatives segment over the auction because of the higher leverage available there.

    Conclusion

    The Closing Auction Session has been in force since the start of the month and is still evolving, which makes a comparison with the earlier method premature. Volumes remain low and the participants who generate most of them are staying out until they can hedge around the randomised close. The next test is whether participation broadens as the mechanism settles and awareness spreads at the retail level.

    Matching Previous Year Question

    “[2023] Consider the following markets : 1. Government Bond Market 2. Call Money Market 3. Treasury Bill Market 4. Stock Market How many of the above are included in capital markets? (a) Only one (b) Only two (c) Only three (d) All four ANSWER: (b)”

  • Chandra’s settlement comes as IBC turns 10, with bank haircuts at five-year high

    Why in the News

    The National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT) has approved a personal insolvency repayment plan under which Zee Group founder Subhash Chandra will pay Rs 6.5 crore against admitted claims of Rs 22,006.57 crore. That is a 99.97 per cent haircut, one of the highest in the history of the insolvency regime. It comes as the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016 (IBC) completes ten years in force. Banks are considering an appeal before the National Company Law Appellate Tribunal (NCLAT). The dispute is whether the Code should be judged by what creditors recover or by whether a stressed asset is resolved at all.

    What is a “haircut” under the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016?

    1. The term is not defined in the Code: The IBC nowhere defines a haircut. Banking practice uses the word for the percentage reduction in the value of an asset pledged as collateral, applied to protect the lender against loss.
    2. What the Code was enacted to do: The IBC was enacted in 2016 to rescue companies under financial stress or heavy debt through resolution and repayment to creditors.
    3. A creditor majority binds the minority: Once the required majority of creditors approves a repayment plan and the tribunal sanctions it, a dissenting creditor cannot walk away and demand a separate settlement.

    Why has the Chandra order revived the haircut debate?

    1. The size of the write down: The order of 25 August approved payment of Rs 6.5 crore to creditors, plus Rs 25 lakh towards the costs of the process.
    2. The liability arises from personal guarantees: Much of the admitted claim relates to personal guarantees and indemnities given for borrowings by companies associated with the Essel Group.
    3. The route is personal insolvency: The proceedings ran against the individual promoter as a personal guarantor rather than against a corporate debtor.
    4. Lenders are weighing a challenge: Banks are considering an appeal against the approval before the NCLAT.

    What does the recovery record under the Code look like?

    1. Cases resolved and value realised: Between 2021-22 and 2025-26, 1,077 cases were resolved under the IBC, with a realisation of Rs 2.47 lakh crore for creditors.
    2. The five year average: Average recovery against admitted claims across those five years was close to 29 per cent.
    3. The year wise trend: Recovery was 24 per cent in 2021-22, 39 per cent in 2022-23, 28 per cent in 2023-24 and 37 per cent in 2024-25, before falling to 20 per cent in 2025-26, the lowest in five years.
    4. What the figure means for a lender: A bank may hold claims running into thousands of crore rupees and receive only a fraction of what it is owed.

    Why do the banks contest the vote that approved the plan?

    1. The margin of approval: Twenty three creditors participated in the voting, and the plan was approved with 80.814 per cent of the votes cast in its favour.
    2. Every bank voted against: The banks that opposed the plan held a combined vote share of only 19.186 per cent.
    3. The related party allegation: Banks say at least five entities holding 61.78 per cent of the votes cast, all of which backed the plan, are linked to the debtor as associates or related parties.
    4. The exclusion sought: A trustee company argued that the votes of an investment company and its two subsidiaries should not have been counted. A resolution professional is the person appointed to manage the affairs of an entity under insolvency and to facilitate its resolution.
    5. The subsidiary argument: The debtor’s counsel argued that a parent company that is not itself an associate of the debtor cannot pass that classification to its downstream subsidiaries.
    6. The debtor’s response: Chandra’s office rejected the allegation as inaccurate. It said the entities referenced belonged to a relative whose business interests were separated in 2008-09, and that they do not qualify as associate entities under the Code.

    Is the Code meant to maximise recovery, or to resolve?

    1. The government’s position: The Ministry of Corporate Affairs holds that the primary objective of the Code is resolution and not recovery.
    2. Why claims are treated as the wrong benchmark: The Ministry told the standing committee on finance in December 2025 that the assets available on the ground are the better measure, since the market values what a company brings to the table and not what it owes.
    3. What an admitted claim contains: A claim often includes a non performing asset (NPA) that may be fully written off, the interest on that asset, and both a loan and the guarantee given against it.
    4. The value that is not counted: Realisation figures exclude the value that may come from equity holdings after a resolution.
    5. The indirect gain claimed: The Code is credited with creating credit discipline, which has contributed to reducing the gross non performing assets of banks.
    6. The banks’ counter: Banks argue that the problem lies in the valuation of stressed companies, that all assets should be included and properly valued, and that the process is opaque.
    7. The valuation mechanism in dispute: At least two valuers are appointed to give a fair value and a liquidation value, based on records and physical examination of the assets. The Chairman of the State Bank of India told the standing committee that valuation should reflect enterprise value instead of liquidation value.

    Challenges to the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, 2016

    1. Delay erodes the value a resolution can fetch: A stressed company loses value for every year it stays unresolved, so the price a resolution applicant will pay falls with time. Eg. Videocon Industries was resolved in 2021 at about five per cent of admitted claims, and the NCLAT stayed the approved plan on that ground. Fix. Tie admission to a fixed outer date from the default so the asset reaches the market before it is stripped of value.
    2. Liquidation remains a more common outcome than rescue: A large share of admitted cases ends in liquidation rather than in an approved resolution plan, which inverts the Code’s stated purpose. Eg. The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Board of India’s quarterly newsletters have consistently reported more closures by liquidation than by resolution. Fix. Extend the pre-packaged insolvency route, available to micro, small and medium enterprises since 2021, to larger firms so a rescue is negotiated before value is lost.
    3. The individual insolvency framework is only partly in force: Part III of the Code was notified in December 2019 for personal guarantors to corporate debtors alone, and the remaining provisions for individuals and partnership firms have not been brought into force. Eg. A defaulting individual who is not a personal guarantor has no route under the Code at all. Fix. Notify the remaining Part III provisions along with a designated adjudicating forum for individual cases.

    Conclusion

    The appeal now being prepared will decide whether the disputed votes were correctly counted, and that is the next milestone in this case. Valuation is the point on which the recovery and resolution positions turn, and shifting stressed asset valuation to enterprise value is still only a suggestion before the committee.

    Matching Previous Year Question

    “[2017] Which of the following statements best describes the- term ‘Scheme for Sustainable Structuring of Stressed Assets (S4A)’, recently seen in the news? (a) It is a procedure for considering ecological costs of developmental schemes formulated by the Government. (b) It is a scheme of RBI for reworking the financial structure of big corporate entities facing genuine difficulties. (c) It is a disinvestment plan of the Government regarding Central Public Sector Undertakings. (d) It is an important provision in ‘The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code’ recently implemented by the Government. ANSWER: (b)”

  • Economy weathered West Asia shock. Now, reform for sustained growth (Op-ed by Sajjid Chinoy)

    Why in the News

    India’s gross domestic product (GDP) growth for the last quarter is expected to print close to 8 per cent, defying fears that the West Asia conflict had dented the economy. This follows a joint fiscal, monetary and regulatory stimulus through 2025, direct tax cuts, a Goods and Services Tax (GST) rationalisation, and an effective 150 basis point policy rate cut, combined with a swift diversification of energy imports during the conflict. The pickup is largely cyclical, and the investment rate, corporate capital expenditure (capex) and structural export and employment growth remain too weak to sustain the expansion once the stimulus fades.

    What explains India’s growth resilience through the West Asia conflict?

    1. A joint stimulus in 2025: Direct taxes were cut in February, GST was rationalised in September, and policy rates were cut by an effective 150 basis points along with regulatory easing in the financial sector.
    2. Non-oil export acceleration: Exports have picked up on the back of a near 15 per cent depreciation of the real effective exchange rate (REER), the trade weighted, inflation adjusted value of the rupee against a basket of currencies, since 2025, a reduction in United States tariffs, and resilient global growth.
    3. Swift energy diversification: India sourced crude from Russia and liquefied natural gas from the United States and Oman to prevent shortages, importing 17 per cent more energy than normal last quarter, while the government absorbed the bulk of the oil price shock through the fisc to insulate the private sector.

    Why does India’s investment rate remain a structural concern?

    1. Fixed investment stagnant: Fixed investment remains near its decadal average of 32 per cent of GDP and has not lifted despite rising public investment and real estate capex.
    2. Corporate capex has not picked up: Corporate capex continues to languish around 10 to 11 per cent of GDP, and balance sheets of the top 1,000 listed companies show no discernible pickup in 2025-26.
    3. Central capex is slowing: Central capex grew 30 per cent between 2020 and 2023, then slowed to 11 per cent in 2024 and just 1.6 per cent in 2025, as tax cuts absorbed fiscal space.
    4. State capex under pressure: Cash transfers on demand are pushing state capex growth below nominal GDP growth.
    5. Weak demand visibility: Capacity utilisation has stayed in the 75 to 76 per cent range for a decade, and rising Chinese overcapacity is discouraging corporate investment.

    Why are consumption and export growth not yet structural?

    1. Weaker growth than the earlier export led cycle: Post-pandemic private consumption and exports grew at about 5 per cent, against the 16 per cent export growth between 2003 and 2012 that had crowded in private capex.
    2. Service export growth has halved: Service export growth in nominal dollars has fallen to 8 per cent over the last year from 16 per cent over the previous four years, and employment across major IT firms has stayed flat.
    3. Employment mix is shifting toward self-employment: The Periodic Labour Force Survey shows India’s employment rate rising, but a significant share of new jobs are self-employed rather than salaried, even as the mix improved in 2025.
    4. Consumption is credit fuelled: Non-Banking Financial Company lending to households is growing at 20 per cent and unsecured personal lending momentum has risen to 25 per cent, on the back of rising household leverage.

    What must change for the growth cycle to become structural?

    1. Labour must become more competitive against capital: India’s capital-labour ratio has risen for over two decades, and reversing this needs education, skilling and health investment, alongside rationalising labour laws that raise the cost of labour.
    2. Exports need structural competitiveness: Goods exports have fallen from 17 per cent of GDP a decade ago to 11 per cent, and further gains need tariffs and non-tariff barriers rationalised and overregulation reduced.
    3. Private capex is the real crowding-in mechanism: Structurally higher consumption and exports are what would draw in a sustained private capex cycle, which in turn would crowd in foreign direct investment and stabilise the balance of payments.

    Conclusion

    The current cyclical strength, backed by clean corporate and financial balance sheets and a sustained agricultural surplus, is a bridge over the West Asia shock, not a destination. Unless investment, exports and employment turn structural, the growth cycle will not sustain once the fiscal and monetary stimulus fades, and the piece warns there is little time left to act given global automation, trade fragmentation and a fraying international order.

    Matching Previous Year Question

    No direct PYQ traced in the provided files.

  • FCNR(B) deposits push forex reserves to all-time high of $729 bn in August

    Why in the News

    The Reserve Bank of India’s concessional swap window for Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank), or FCNR(B), deposits has propelled India’s foreign exchange reserves to a record $729.33 billion as of 21 August, surpassing the previous all-time high of $728.49 billion recorded on 27 February, just a day before the United States and Israel struck Iran and touched off the West Asia conflict that drove global energy prices sharply higher. Reserves rose by $12.42 billion in the week ended 21 August alone, with FCNR(B) inflows of $65.4 billion accounting for most of the $72.85 billion that has entered India since three concessional swap windows opened on 8 June.

    What is driving reserves to a record, and what does the FCNR(B) window actually do?

    1. Scale of inflows: FCNR(B) deposits outstanding rose from $34.04 billion at the end of May to $65.4 billion by 21 August, since the window opened on 8 June, and reserves themselves jumped $12.42 billion in the week ended 21 August.
    2. Mechanism: Under the FCNR(B) scheme the central bank bears the full exchange rate risk on these non-resident deposits, since the money is held in foreign currency rather than converted into rupees, which let banks offer interest rates as high as 7.4 percent.
    3. Leveraged NRI participation: Non-resident Indians have also borrowed at lower interest rates abroad to deposit the proceeds into FCNR(B) accounts, earning returns of as much as 15 percent on the resulting spread.

    Why did reserves need rebuilding in the first place?

    1. The rupee was already under stress before the record: The rupee came under intense pressure from large foreign portfolio outflows, with $19 billion leaving Indian markets in 2025 and a further $24 billion in the first five months of 2026, pushing the currency to near 97 per dollar in mid-May.
    2. The West Asia conflict added an oil import shock: Since roughly 85 percent of India’s crude oil needs are met through imports, the conflict’s closure-driven spike in global energy prices raised the country’s import bill and added further pressure on the rupee just as reserves were near their earlier February high.
    3. The rupee remains down year-on-year despite the record reserves: The rupee closed at 95.39 per dollar on Friday, little changed from its 95.79 level on 4 June and still 8.1 percent weaker than a year earlier, showing the reserve build has stabilised rather than reversed the currency’s decline.

    What other measures accompanied the FCNR(B) window?

    1. Two additional swap windows: Announced alongside FCNR(B) on 5 June, swap facilities for Overseas Foreign Currency Borrowings and External Commercial Borrowings have together brought in $4.86 billion and $2.59 billion respectively since 8 June.
    2. Tax relief for foreign portfolio investors: The government removed capital gains and withholding taxes on foreign portfolio investment in government securities as part of the same package meant to pull in capital and support the rupee.
    3. An accelerated closure timeline: Because inflows arrived faster than expected, the RBI moved the FCNR(B) window’s closing date to 31 August, a month earlier than the originally announced 30 September deadline.

    Challenges to relying on FCNR(B)-driven reserve accumulation

    1. Weak currency response relative to precedent: The rupee has barely moved during this swap window, compared with the 2013 episode when the rupee rose 10.3 percent, from 67.6 to 61.3 per dollar, in the first 40 days after the RBI’s then-Governor introduced a similar FCNR(B) swap facility. Eg. The rupee moved from 95.79 to 95.39 per dollar between 4 June and 29 August this year, a fraction of the 2013 currency response to a comparable scheme. Fix. Pair reserve accumulation with structural measures that improve the current account, such as diversifying energy import sources, rather than treating swap-driven capital inflows alone as sufficient to support the currency.
    2. Reversal risk from leveraged hot money: A meaningful share of FCNR(B) inflows has been driven by non-resident Indians borrowing cheaply abroad to arbitrage into high-yield deposits, a flow that can reverse quickly once interest rate differentials narrow or the window closes. Eg. The window’s early closure on 31 August, a month ahead of schedule, was itself driven by inflows arriving faster than expected, which cuts both ways once the scheme ends and deposits mature. Fix. Stagger FCNR(B) maturities and monitor the redemption schedule closely to avoid a sudden reserve drawdown when large deposit tranches come due.

    Conclusion

    The FCNR(B) swap window has pushed India’s foreign exchange reserves past their previous February high to a record $729.33 billion, giving the Reserve Bank of India greater capacity to defend the rupee after a period of heavy foreign portfolio outflows and an oil price shock from the West Asia conflict. The rupee’s limited appreciation despite the record inflow, unlike the sharper rupee gains seen after the comparable 2013 swap window, signals the current build is cushioning rather than reversing currency pressure.

    Back2Basics: What are FCNR(B) deposits?

    1. FCNR(B) deposits are foreign currency accounts that non-resident Indians can hold with Indian banks, where the deposit and its returns stay denominated in the foreign currency rather than in rupees.
    2. The scheme shifts exchange rate risk onto the Reserve Bank of India rather than the depositor or the bank, which lets banks offer higher interest rates to attract inflows during periods of currency pressure.
    3. India last used a similar concessional FCNR(B) swap window in 2013, under then RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan, to stabilise the rupee following a sharp depreciation.

    Matching Previous Year Question

    No direct PYQ traced in the provided files (Pass 1: FCNR(B), forex reserves record — no match; Pass 2: balance of payments, current account — matches found were conceptually unrelated to a record reserves event).

  • A.P. to become third subsea hub on data centre buildout

    A.P. to become third subsea hub on data centre buildout

    Why in the News

    Technology majors Microsoft and Google are building new subsea cable landing stations on the coast of Andhra Pradesh as part of an artificial intelligence linked data centre buildout in the State. Microsoft is part of a consortium with Lightstorm and the Singaporean telecom operator Singtel to land the 3,600 kilometre India Southeast Asia Submarine Cable System, while Google’s globe spanning America India Connect system will land at Visakhapatnam, where the company’s own data centre complex is coming up. Once complete, the buildout will give India, after Mumbai and Chennai, a third digital international gateway, even as a global shortage of fibre threatens to slow the inland network these projects still need.

    What is a subsea cable landing station?

    1. Definition: A subsea cable landing station is the facility where an undersea fibre optic cable comes ashore and connects to a country’s terrestrial network, carrying the bulk of international internet traffic.
    2. Global reliance: The overwhelming majority of the world’s international data traffic travels through such undersea cable systems rather than satellites, making landing stations critical infrastructure.
    3. India’s current concentration: India’s existing landing stations are concentrated in Mumbai and Chennai, leaving the country reliant on a small number of routes.

    What new cable infrastructure is being built off Andhra Pradesh’s coast?

    1. Microsoft’s consortium project: Microsoft, alongside Lightstorm and Singtel, is landing the 3,600 kilometre India Southeast Asia Submarine Cable System, expected to be ready for service in the fourth quarter of 2029.
    2. Google’s own system: Google’s America India Connect system will land at Visakhapatnam, alongside the data centre complex the company is building there as part of what a Google executive described as an artificial intelligence hub.

    What does this make Visakhapatnam?

    1. India’s third gateway: After Mumbai and Chennai, Visakhapatnam becomes India’s third digital international subsea gateway, connecting the country directly with Southeast Asia, Australia and the Middle East.
    2. A new corridor: Lightstorm’s chief executive has described the India Southeast Asia system, which also connects to Chennai, as providing a fresh corridor to South Asia from Singapore and Malaysia.

    Why are companies building on the east coast now?

    1. Ageing existing infrastructure: Most cables currently connecting India’s east coast are old, are already filled to capacity and are approaching the end of their working life.
    2. A search for resilience: Companies are also seeking to reduce the risk of relying on a single route by adding cables on India’s east coast, citing instability in West Asia as a reason to build in an alternate location.

    What inland infrastructure does this buildout require?

    1. A nationwide undertaking: Both projects require installing and lighting thousands of kilometres of new terrestrial fibre linking the coast to major cities, a scale one company executive described as spanning the entire country.
    2. A dedicated corridor: Lightstorm is expected to build a terrestrial corridor connecting Machilipatnam to Mumbai and Hyderabad, and Chennai to Hyderabad and Mumbai, with matching bandwidth.
    3. A global fibre shortage: Fibre, its components and its raw material are in short supply worldwide, including from Indian manufacturers, a constraint industry executives describe as unprecedented in over a decade.

    What will Google’s Visakhapatnam facility do?

    1. Focused on inference: The facility will focus on inference work rather than power intensive training runs, serving domestic enterprises and government agencies given the deep adoption of artificial intelligence across government service delivery.
    2. Power and water choices: Google is seeking to source as much renewable power for the project as possible and is using air cooling technology to minimise water use.

    Challenges to the subsea cable buildout

    1. A global fibre shortage: A worldwide shortage of fibre and its raw material, unprecedented in over a decade, could delay the inland network these projects still need. Eg. Industry executives report that fibre is out of stock across the globe, including from Indian manufacturers. Fix. Expand domestic fibre manufacturing capacity through targeted incentives so the inland rollout is not held back by global supply constraints.
    2. Physical vulnerability of undersea cables: Undersea cables remain exposed to accidental damage from fishing and anchoring activity and to disruption in contested waters. Eg. India’s existing east coast cables are already ageing and running close to capacity, leaving few redundant routes today. Fix. Build multiple, geographically separated landing points and routes, as the new Visakhapatnam gateway is itself intended to do, so a single cable fault cannot isolate India’s connectivity.
    3. Concentration of ownership with foreign firms: The new cable systems and the data centres they serve are being built and operated by foreign technology majors, so India’s expanding gateway capacity depends on the investment decisions of a small number of firms. Eg. Both the India Southeast Asia system and the America India Connect system are anchored by Microsoft and Google respectively rather than Indian carriers. Fix. Encourage Indian telecom operators to invest jointly in landing station capacity so gateway control is not concentrated entirely with foreign firms.

    Conclusion

    Andhra Pradesh’s coastline is emerging as India’s third major digital gateway, as Microsoft and Google build new subsea cable systems into Visakhapatnam alongside the data centres driving the region’s artificial intelligence buildout. Delivering on that promise depends on inland fibre rollout keeping pace despite a global supply crunch, and on India diversifying its cable landing points and ownership so its expanding digital infrastructure does not remain concentrated in a handful of ageing routes and foreign owned systems.

    [2023] “What is the status of digitalization in the Indian economy? Examine the problems faced in this regard and suggest improvements.”

  • Carney’s defiance is well thought out

    Carney’s defiance is well thought out

    Why in the News

    Canada’s Prime Minister has walked away from trade negotiations with the United States after Washington put forward terms that would have cost Canada its sovereignty, key industries, French language protections and its freedom to negotiate with other countries. He has also announced retaliatory tariffs matching the new United States tariffs dollar for dollar, stating that the Americans “asked too much and offered too little.” The move tests whether a middle power, an economy that sends roughly three quarters of its exports into a market ten times its size, can resist pressure from a dominant trading partner without folding, and it carries lessons for other countries, including India, that are negotiating their own terms with Washington.

    What calculations underlie the decision to walk away?

    1. Broad domestic backing: The stance draws support even from the opposition Conservative party, amid public frustration with the United States President’s repeated talk of making Canada the fifty first state.
    2. A contained tariff footprint: The new tariffs apply to only about 5 percent of Canada’s overall exports to the United States, worth roughly 20 billion dollars, limiting the immediate domestic cost of retaliation.
    3. A calculated bet on mutual damage: A breakdown in trade relations is expected to hurt the United States as well, so Canada does not need to win the confrontation outright, only to make the arithmetic politically painful in Washington.

    How exposed is the United States to a breakdown with Canada?

    1. A leading export destination: Canada is the largest export market for 26 American states and among the top three trading partners for 45 of the 50 states.
    2. Energy dependence: Canada supplies roughly 60 percent of America’s crude oil imports, and Canadian electricity helps power grids in New England and the upper Midwest.
    3. Critical inputs: Canadian potash is vital to American agriculture, while Canadian critical minerals feed strategically important American supply chains.

    Why is the timing unfavourable for Washington?

    1. Domestic economic strain: A stalemate with Iran has pushed United States gasoline prices above 4 dollars a gallon, while the 30 year Treasury yield has climbed above 5.3 percent, its highest level since 2007.
    2. Fiscal and political weakness: Federal debt has crossed 40 trillion dollars, and the United States President’s net approval rating has fallen to minus 26 percent, narrowing his room to absorb a prolonged trade standoff.

    What broader pattern does this defiance respond to?

    1. A repeated negotiating playbook: Governments from Mexico City to Brussels to Tokyo have spent the past year confronting an American administration that treats a signed trade agreement as an opening bid that can be revisited whenever it suits it, coercing partners with escalating tariff threats and demanding unilateral concessions.
    2. Prior diversification, not improvisation: The Canadian Prime Minister had earlier warned that middle powers must stand up or risk ending up “on the menu,” and spent close to a year building trade ties with China, the Gulf and Asia, including India, so that a closed door in Washington did not mean a locked room globally.

    Challenges to Canada’s defiance strategy

    1. Economic exposure to a sustained standoff: Canada still sends roughly three quarters of its exports to an economy ten times its own size, so a prolonged confrontation could cost jobs and growth even if it wins the political argument. Eg. Estimates cited alongside the retaliatory tariffs put up to 90,000 Canadian jobs at risk from a sustained trade confrontation. Fix. Continue diversifying export markets by deepening the trade ties already being built with China, the Gulf and Asia.
    2. A narrow tariff footprint limits leverage: The new tariffs cover only about 5 percent of Canada’s exports to the United States, so retaliation alone may be too small to force a reversal in Washington. Eg. Even a full breakdown leaves most of Canada’s three quarter dependence on the United States market untouched. Fix. Extend retaliation toward strategically sensitive sectors such as crude oil, electricity and critical minerals, where Canada supplies a large share of United States demand.
    3. Domestic political risk if pain outlasts patience: Sustained economic pain could erode the broad backing that currently underwrites the stance, including support from the opposition. Eg. Higher fuel and consumer prices from a prolonged standoff could shift Canadian public opinion before comparable pressure is felt in Washington. Fix. Time targeted relief for the sectors affected by the new tariffs so public patience holds through the standoff.

    Conclusion

    The decision to reject an unfavourable trade deal, backed by calculated retaliation and prior diversification of trade ties, is being read as proof that a middle power can resist pressure from a much larger economy without folding. Whether the strategy succeeds depends on whether Canada’s own economic pain stays contained and whether Washington’s vulnerabilities, from energy prices to approval ratings, bite hard enough to force a reversal. For India, still negotiating its own trade deal with Washington, the lesson is not to reject a deal outright but to know precisely which concessions it can never afford to make.

    [2025] What are the challenges before the Indian economy when the world is moving away from free trade and multilateralism to protectionism and bilateralism? How can these challenges be met?”

  • Economy is resilient, but risks remain

    Economy is resilient, but risks remain

    Why in the News

    The State of the Economy report, compiled by economists at the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), together with the finance ministry’s monthly economic review, has found that India’s underlying growth momentum held up through the first quarter of the financial year. Both readings point to firm household consumption, industrial output and credit growth even as global conditions stay unsettled. The outlook nonetheless remains clouded by continuing geopolitical and trade related uncertainty, volatile energy prices and a strengthening El Niño (a periodic warming of central and eastern Pacific Ocean waters that disrupts monsoon rainfall patterns), risks that could weigh on growth just as the National Statistics Office (NSO) prepares to release its first quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimate.

    What signals point to resilient domestic growth?

    1. Steady consumption indicators: E way bill generation has stayed firm, Goods and Services Tax (GST) revenues have remained healthy, and passenger vehicle, tractor and two wheeler sales have all been strong.
    2. Firm industrial output: The Index of Industrial Production (IIP), a measure of output across mining, manufacturing and electricity, rose 5.8 percent in the quarter, aided by the manufacturing sector, while electricity demand held steady.
    3. Corporate profitability and credit growth: Firms in both manufacturing and services reported improved operating profits, and bank credit has grown at a brisk pace across both industrial and retail lending.
    4. Monsoon recovery and exports: A recovery in the monsoon has supported kharif sowing, and exports excluding oil grew 12.8 percent in the first four months of the year, aided by the currency’s depreciation.
    5. Public capital spending: The Centre’s own expenditure grew by roughly 24 percent in the quarter, keeping public capital spending on track.

    What risks could weigh on this resilience?

    1. External uncertainty: Continuing geopolitical and trade related tensions, along with supply chain pressures, threaten to unsettle the momentum built up domestically.
    2. Volatile energy prices: Fluctuating global energy prices raise input costs across manufacturing and transport and feed inflation risk.
    3. A strengthening El Niño: A stronger El Niño could unsettle the rainfall gains that supported this quarter’s kharif sowing and rural demand.
    4. A cautious institutional tone: The finance ministry’s economic review itself notes that “recent years have been a time for hunkering down and battening down the hatches,” and expects coming years to be no exception.

    What does the growth trajectory imply for the GDP estimate?

    1. RBI’s own projection: At its August Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting, the central bank projected 7 percent growth for the first quarter, a figure broadly matched by assessments from agencies such as Crisil and ICRA.
    2. The GDP release ahead: The National Statistics Office is set to release its first quarter GDP estimate shortly, with growth seen as likely to surprise on the upside even as the external environment continues to weigh on the outlook.

    Conclusion

    Domestic demand, industrial output and credit growth show the economy’s underlying momentum has held up, but persistent external risks, from trade tensions to volatile energy prices and a strengthening El Niño, mean policymakers cannot afford complacency. The National Statistics Office’s forthcoming GDP estimate will offer the first concrete test of whether this resilience is translating into headline growth, even as the external environment continues to demand a calibrated policy response.

    Back2Basics: What is the State of the Economy report?

    1. Publisher: It is a monthly assessment published in the Reserve Bank of India’s Bulletin, written by economists in the RBI’s Monetary Policy Department.
    2. Status: It carries a standard disclaimer that the views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the RBI.
    3. Purpose: It reviews high frequency indicators of growth, inflation and the external sector to assess the economy’s current momentum.

    [2021] “Explain the difference between computing methodology of India’s Gross Domestic Product(GDP) before the year 2015 and after the year 2015.”

  • PSU banks more efficient than private peers: EAC-PM

    PSU banks more efficient than private peers: EAC-PM

    Why in the News

    A paper by two economists for the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC-PM), a body that advises the Prime Minister on economic policy questions, found that public sector banks (PSBs) are more efficient than private and foreign banks.

    Titled “Reforms, Efficiency, and Productivity of Indian Banking Sector in the Last Decade: DEA Approach”, the paper used Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), a method that measures how far a unit could shrink its inputs while producing the same output, to compare 47 banks.

    What does the study find?

    1. PSBs improved significantly: During 2014-15 to 2025-26, PSBs recorded average efficiency of 88.53%, compared with 85.62% for private banks. Foreign banks led over the full period: Foreign banks had the highest 12-year average of 88.98%, but their efficiency declined from 95.86% in 2014-15. Most efficient banks:
    2. HSBC and JPMorgan Chase: 100% efficiency in all 12 years.
    3. HDFC Bank: 97.54% average efficiency among private banks.
    4. State Bank of India (SBI): 97.49%, highest among PSBs.
    5. DBS Bank India: Lowest single-year efficiency of 40.12% in 2021-22, linked to its merger with Lakshmi Vilas Bank.
    6. Impact of PSB mergers: PSBs were relatively less efficient than private banks during FY2019 to FY2022, partly due to the merger and rationalisation of branches, employees and business operations.

    Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA)

    1. DEA is a method for measuring the relative efficiency of units, here banks, that produce the same kind of output from different combinations of inputs.
    2. An efficiency score below 100% means the unit could reduce its inputs by that shortfall and still produce the same output. Eg. A score of 85% means the unit could cut inputs by 15% without any loss of output.

    “[2024] Consider the following statements:
    Statement-I: Syndicated lending spreads the risk of borrower default across multiple lenders.
    Statement-II: The syndicated loan can be a fixed amount/lump sum of funds, but cannot be a credit line.
    Which one of the following is correct in respect of the above statements?
    (a) Both Statement-I and Statement-II are correct and Statement-II explains Statement-I
    (b) Both Statement-I and Statement-II are correct, but Statement-II does not explain Statement-I
    (c) Statement-I is correct, but Statement-II is incorrect
    (d) Statement-I is incorrect, but Statement-II is correct