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Subject: International Stories of Key Importance

  • Why UNSC joint statement on nuclear weapons is important

    Context

    The leaders of five nuclear-weapons States — the US, Russia, China, the UK, and France, also known as the P5 issued a joint statement on preventing nuclear war and avoiding the ongoing global arms race.

    Overview of the P5 statement

    • It is not a binding resolution and reiterates some of the core obligations of the NPT.
    • The P5 statement reaffirms that a “nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought” because of its “far-reaching consequences”.
    • The statement also expresses a commitment to the group’s Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) obligations and “to prevent the unauthorized or unintended use of nuclear weapons”.
    • Declaring that an arms race would benefit none and endanger all, the P5 have undertaken to:
    • (1) work with all states to create a security environment more conducive to progress on disarmament with the ultimate goal of a world without nuclear weapons.
    • (2) continue seeking bilateral and multilateral diplomatic approaches to avoid military confrontations, strengthen stability and predictability, increase mutual understanding and confidence”.
    • (3) pursue “constructive dialogue with mutual respect and acknowledgment of each other’s security interests and concerns”.

    Bold action on 6 measures

    • Bold action on six fronts is necessary.
    • 1) Chart a path for nuclear disarmament: That member states should chart a path forward on nuclear disarmament.
    • 2) Transparency and dialogue: They should agree to new measures of “transparency and dialogue”.
    • 3) Address nuclear crises: They should address the “simmering” nuclear crises in the Middle East and Asia.
    • 4) Strengthen global bodies: They should strengthen the existing global bodies that support non-proliferation, including the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA).
    • 5) Peaceful use of nuclear technology: They should promote the peaceful use of nuclear technology.
    • 6) Elimination of nuclear weapons: they should remind “the world’s people that eliminating nuclear weapons is the only way to guarantee that they will never be used.

    Peace education and the right to peace

    • Peace is necessary for rights, freedom, equality, and justice, and for that reason, we need what Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes Jr. called “education in the obvious”— namely, peace education.
    • This is required at multiple levels, ranging across the planetary, global, supranational, regional, national, and local levels of social cognition and action.
    •  UN Resolution 39/11 (November 12, 1984) proclaims that the peoples of our planet have a sacred right to peace and equally solemnly declares that the “preservation of the right of peoples to peace and the promotion of its implementation constitute a fundamental obligation of each State”.
    • The subsequent UN Resolution 53/243 B, declaring a program of action for a culture of peace (1999) also owes a great deal to Gandhi’s legacy and mission.

    Conclusion

    The statement is politically significant given the unimaginable danger posed by the 13,000 nuclear weapons currently believed to be held by a handful of countries, and the growing specter of loose nukes, which may be deployed by armed terrorist groups for nefarious purposes.

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  • How India can adapt to global geoeconomic churn

    Context

    As India returns to a high growth path after a slowdown in the last decade, its geopolitical salience in the world will continue to rise.

    India’s growth story

    •  Today, India’s GDP is $3.1 trillion and could cross, according to some estimates, $8 trillion by the end of this decade.
    •  India’s total trade, which was about $38 billion in 1991-92, is expected to touch $1.3 trillion this year.
    •  This is about 40 percent of India’s GDP and underlines the fact that India is more deeply tied to the world than ever before.
    • The world itself is in a geo-economic churn making the transition to $8 trillion a challenging one.

    Geo-economic and geopolitical changes in the global order

    Geo-economic changes

    • It was Edward Luttwak, the well-known American strategist, who triggered a global discourse on the idea of geoeconomics in a seminal article in 1990 amidst the end of the Cold War.
    • Using economic dominance for political gain: The rapid economic rise of China in the last three decades and Beijing’s success in leveraging its growing economic clout for political gain is widely seen as a classic example of geoeconomics.
    • Economic interdependence: Luttwak’s warning against illusions of economic interdependence and globalization have been borne out by major changes in US-China relations in recent years.
    • The dramatic expansion of economic interdependence between China and America over the last four decades — what some called “Chimerica” — was the principal evidence for the thesis that geopolitics and ideology no longer mattered.
    • Chimerica was held up as an efficient economic fusion that underscored the virtues of economic globalization.
    • However, economic nationalism has re-emerged in both countries today.
    • The US is also strengthening domestic research and industrial capabilities to compete more effectively with China.
    • China too has adopted the economic strategy of “dual circulation” that focuses on strengthening domestic capabilities and reducing exposure to external factors.

    How geopolitical and geoeconomic changes are influencing India’s free trade policies

    • At the end of 2019, India has walked out from the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) suggesting that the costs of joining a China-centered regional economic order are unacceptable.
    • Deepening engagement with complementary economies: India’s move towards free trade agreements with countries like Australia, Britain, UAE, and Israel.
    • Domestic orientation: Much like the US and China, India is now taking a number of initiatives to promote domestic manufacturing in a range of sectors under the banner of “Atmanirbhar Bharat”.

    Way forward for India

    • Until now, India had the luxury of treating its foreign, economic, and strategic policies as separate domains.
    • An integrated approach to policies: Adapting to the current global geo-economic churn demands that Delhi finds better ways to integrate its financial, trade, technological, security, and foreign policies.
    • Above all India needs a strategy that can respond to the imperatives of building domestic capabilities, developing geo-economic partnerships, and constructing geopolitical coalitions with like-minded countries.

    Consider the question “How the current geo-political and geo-economic policies are shaping India’s trade policies? Suggest the approach India need to adapt to the structural changes taking place in the global order?” 

    Conclusion

    India’s selective trade arrangements and the policies to promote domestic manufacturing have drawn much criticism. While those arguments must continue, they must be related more closely to the structural changes in the international economic order.

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  • What is America COMPETES Act?

    The US has unveiled the Creating Opportunities for Manufacturing, Pre-Eminence in Technology, and Economic Strength (COMPETES) Act of 2022 that proposes to open up new vistas for talented individuals from across the world with a new start-up visa.

    What is the COMPETES Act?

    • The bill provides $52 billion to encourage more semiconductor production in the US, and $45 billion for grants and loans to improve supply chain resilience and manufacturing, among other programs.
    • It also includes funding to address social and economic inequality, climate change, and immigration.
    • For instance, it provides an exemption for STEM PhDs from the green card cap and creates a new green card for entrepreneurs.
    • The bill also authorizes $600 million a year to construct manufacturing facilities to make the US less reliant on solar components made in Xinjiang, China.

    Key provisions in the Act

    • The Act amends the Immigration and Nationality Act to create a new classification of “W” non-immigrants for entrepreneurs with an ownership interest in a start-up entity.
    • It seeks to establish procedures for foreign nationals with an ownership interest in a start-up entity to self-petition for lawful permanent resident status as an immigrant entrepreneur.
    • The bill exempts from the numerical limits on immigrant visas certain foreign nationals (and the spouses and children of such aliens) who have earned a doctoral degree in STEM.

    Implications for Indians

    • It would mean more opportunities in the US for Indian talent, and for skilled workers.
    • Every year, the US administration issues 85,000 H-1B work permits.
    • Every year, Indians and Indian companies corner a lion’s share of the H-1B work permits issued that year.
    • With this new category, Indian professionals will likely have a better shot at opportunities that the Act is likely to provide.

     

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  • What Russia really wants

    Context

    Vladimir Putin, who annexed Crimea in 2014 has now mobilised some 100,000 troops on the Ukraine border.

    How insecurity and history plays role in Russia’s actions

    • Russia, the world’s largest country by land mass, lacks natural borders except the Arctic Ocean in the north and the Pacific in the far east.
    • Its vast land borders stretch from northern Europe to Central and north east Asia.
    • The country’s heartland that runs from St. Petersburg through Moscow to the Volga region lies on plains and is vulnerable to attacks.
    • In the last two centuries, Russia saw two devastating invasions from the west — the 1812 attack by Napoleonic France and the 1941 attack by Nazi Germany. 
    • After the Second World War, Russia re-established its control over the rim land in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, which it hoped would protect its heartland.
    • But the disintegration of the Soviet Union threw its security calculations into disarray, deepening its historical insecurity.

    NATO’s expansion after disintegration of the Soviet Union

    • When the Soviet Union collapsed, Russia lost over three million square kilometres of sovereign territory.
    •  In the last months of the Soviet Union, the West promised that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) would not “expand an inch to the east”.
    • The United States and the United Kingdom repeated the pledge after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
    • But despite the promises, NATO continued expansion.
    • In March 1999, in the first enlargement since the end of the Cold War, the Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland (all were members of the Soviet-led Warsaw Pact) joined NATO.
    • Five years later, seven more countries — including the three Baltic countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, all of which share borders with Russia — were taken into the alliance.
    • Russia felt threatened but was not able to respond.
    • But in 2008, when the U.S. promised membership to Georgia and Ukraine in the Bucharest summit, Russia, which was coming out of the post-Soviet retreat, responded forcefully.

    How Russia see NATO expansion as threat to its dominance on Black Sea

    • Turkey, Bulgaria and Romania, all Black Sea basin countries, are NATO members.
    • Ukraine and Georgia are the other countries that share the Black Sea coast, besides Russia.
    • Russia was already feeling squeezed on the Black Sea front, its gateway to the Mediterranean Sea.
    • If Ukraine and Georgia also join NATO, Russia fears that its dominance over the Black Sea would come to an end.
    • So, in 2008, Mr. Putin sent troops to Georgia over the separatist conflict in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
    • In 2014, when the Kremlin-friendly regime of Ukraine was toppled by pro-western protesters, he moved to annex the Crimean peninsula, expanding Russia’s Black Sea coast, thereby protecting its fleet based in Sevastopol in Crimea.

    Restoring the rim land

    • In recent years, Mr. Putin has tried to turn every crisis in the former Soviet region into a geopolitical opportunity.
    • South Ossetia and Abkhazia, the self-proclaimed republics that broke away from Georgia, are controlled by Russia-backed forces.
    •  In 2020, when protests erupted in Belarus after a controversial presidential election, Mr. Putin sent assistance to the country to restore order.
    • In the same year, Russia sent thousands of “peacekeepers” to end the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan.
    • Earlier this year, Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko, with Mr. Putin’s backing, manufactured a migrant crisis on the Polish border of the European Union.
    • This month, when violent unrest broke out in Kazakhstan, the largest and wealthiest country in Central Asia, its leader turned to Russia for help.

    How do geopolitical circumstances favour Russia?

    • The U.S.’s ignominious withdrawal from Afghanistan has left the Central Asian republics deeper in the Russian embrace.
    • Europe is very much dependent on Russian gas, which limits its response.
    • For years, the West, the winner of the Cold War, discounted Mr. Putin.
    • Having failed to defeat the Taliban in Afghanistan, NATO is unlikely to pick a war with Russia over Ukraine.

    Conclusion

    By destabilising Georgia and Ukraine and re-establishing Russia’s hold in Belarus, Caucasus and Central Asia, Moscow has effectively stalled NATO’s further expansion into its backyard.

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  • Domestic and geopolitical risks India faces in 2022

    Context

    Risks in 2022 could be both domestic and geopolitical, with many precepts that the world has been accustomed to being at risk. Democracy itself could face serious headwinds this year.

     Challenges to democracy

    • The world has recently seen the rise of authoritarian rulers in many countries.
    • What is worrisome is that democratic tenets which have been under attack in recent years appear set to face more onslaughts this year.
    • The United States, which was widely viewed as a major bulwark for democracy, appears to have developed certain pathological infirmities.

    Geopolitical challenges and risks

    [1] Disruption by China

    • The role of China is possibly the most disrupting one, given the challenge it poses to the existing international order.
    • Militarily, China is openly challenging U.S. supremacy in many areas, including ‘state-of-the-art weaponry’ such as hyper-sonic technology.
    • China is now threatening Taiwan, which could well become one of the flashpoints of conflict in 2022.
    • The dip in China’s economic profile in the past year and more could also lead to new tensions in the Asia-Pacific region in 2022.

    [2] Russia-Ukraine conflict

    • The other major risk of a war in 2022, stems from the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine — the latter being backed by the U.S. and North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) forces.
    • During the past three decades, NATO has expanded its reach almost a 1,000 miles to the east in violation of an earlier tacit understanding.
    • Russia appears determined that Ukraine should be the ‘last frontier’ and, if need be, ensure this through military force.
    • The situation has grave possibilities and could result in a series of cyclical outcomes with considerable damage potential.

    [3] Instability in the vast region

    • Unrest in Kazakhstan: The current unrest in Kazakhstan, which till recently was one of the more stable Central Asian nations, is perhaps symptomatic of what is in store.
    • Recent events in Kazakhstan demonstrates a sharper cleavage between the U.S.-led West and its principal opponents, Russia and China.
    • This is not a good sign for the world already wracked by a series of coups or internecine strife as in Ethiopia, Libya and certain regions of West Asia and North Africa.

    [4] Return of Taliban and security implications for India

    • Shift in balance of power: Of particular significance to India is that the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan has led to a material shift in the balance of power in India’s periphery.
    • Developments in Afghanistan have fuelled the ambitions of quite a few ‘anti-state militant groups’ across the region.
    • Even in Pakistan, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has become energised and is enlarging its sphere of action to other parts of Asia, notably Kazakhstan.
    • This will have an unsettling effect across large parts of Asia.
    • New evidence suggests that on India’s eastern flank, viz. Indonesia, a resurgence of radical Islamist activities is taking place.
    • The Jemaah Islamiyah has reportedly become more active in Indonesia.

    [5] India’s border issue with China

    • The most serious issue that India confronts today is how to deal with a China that has become more confrontational.
    • India’s membership of the Quad still rankles as far as China’s psyche is concerned, and during 2022, may well result in China embarking on new adventurist actions at many more points on the Sino-Indian border compelling India to react.
    • Additionally, India will need to determine how best to respond to China’s provocations.
    • Strengthen military posture: India would need to strengthen its military posture, both as a means to deter China and also to convince India’s neighbours that it can stand up to China.

    Challenges ahead for India

    • Challenge in Central Asia: Diplomatically, in 2022, India may find itself vulnerable in dealing with the turmoils which have occurred in two areas of strategic interest to it, viz. Central Asia and West Asia.
    • Challenge in West Asia: In West Asia, the challenge for India is how to manage its membership of the Second Quad (India, Israel, the United Arab Emirates and the U.S.) with the conflicting interests of different players in the region.
    • Limits to balancing: There is a limit to the kind of balancing act that India can perform, whether it be with regard to buying S-400 missile systems from Russia, risking potential sanctions from Washington under Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) or manoeuvering between the Arab States, Israel, Iran and the U.S. in West Asia.

    Conclusion

    Facing a host of unprecedented challenges, India’s leaders and diplomats must not only take stock of the dangers that exist but also be ready on how to manage the risks that are well evident.

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  • China does not have it all its way in the South China Sea

    Context

    South-East Asian countries are increasingly wary of their giant neighbour.

    Background of dispute

    • Disputes in the South China Sea go back decades.
    • But it was only ten years ago that China, which makes maritime claims for nearly the whole sea, greatly upped the ante.
    • Countries involved: They involve Brunei, China, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam, all with contesting claims.
    • China provoked a stand-off that left it in control of an uninhabited atoll, Scarborough Shoal, which under un maritime law clearly belongs to the Philippines.
    • Then China launched a massive terraforming exercise, turning reefs and rocks into artificial islands hosting airstrips and bases.

    China’s strong-arm tactics

    • China’s long-term aim is to project Chinese power deep into the South China Sea and beyond, and to hold the Americans away during any conflict.
    • The immediate aim, though, is to dominate politically and economically as much as militarily.
    • China has challenged oil-and-gas activity by both Indonesia and Malaysia, and sent drilling rigs to both countries’ eezs and continental shelves.
    • It has bullied foreign energy companies into dropping joint development with Vietnam and others.

    Implications

    • China has paid a diplomatic price.
    • Impact on relations with ASEAN: Had Mr Xi engaged in none of the terraforming and bullying, China would be better admired among members of the ten-country Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN).
    • Naval presence of the US: The United States and its Western allies have upped their naval presence in the sea, welcomed by most ASEAN members.

    Negotiation on Code of conduct on South China Sea

    • For years China dragged its feet on agreeing with ASEAN a code of conduct on the South China Sea, a principle agreed on 20 years ago in order to promote co-operation and reduce tensions.
    • These days, China likes to play willing.
    • China is demanding, in effect, the right of veto over ASEAN members’ naval exercises with foreign powers.
    • It also wants to keep out foreigners from joint oil-and-gas development.
    • Such demands are unacceptable to members.

    Conclusion

    Despite China’s efforts to establish its wild claims of sovereignty, China has been facing sustained resistance from the ASEAN countries.

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  • China’s disputed ‘Developing’ Country Status at WTO

    China’s status as a ‘developing country’ at the World Trade Organization (WTO) has become a contentious issue with a number of countries raising concerns.

    Defining a country’s ‘Development’

    • There are no WTO definitions of “developed” or “developing” countries.
    • Developing countries in the WTO are designated on the basis of self-selection although this is not necessarily automatically accepted in all WTO bodies.
    • The WTO however recognizes as least-developed countries (LDCs) those countries which have been designated as such by the United Nations.

    Benefits of ‘Developing Country’ tag

    • Special and differential treatment: Certain WTO agreements give developing countries special rights through ‘special and differential treatment’ (S&DT) provisions.
    • Preferential treatment: The classification also allows other countries to offer preferential treatment.
    • Longer timeframe for pacts: WTO can grant developing countries longer timeframes to implement the agreements and even commitments to raise trading opportunities for such countries.

    Issues with Chinese ‘Developing Country’ status

    • China has become an upper-middle-income country according to the World Bank.
    • It involves in unfair trade practices such as preferential treatment for state enterprises, data restrictions and inadequate enforcement of intellectual property rights.

    How has China responded?

    • China has consistently maintained that it is the “world’s largest developing economy”.
    • It has recently indicated that it may be willing to forego many benefits of being a developing country.

    What are the benefits of LDC classification?

    • The WTO recognizes LDCs relying on a classification by the UN based on criteria that is reviewed every three years. LDCs are often exempted from certain provisions of WTO pacts.
    • Bangladesh, currently classified as an LDC, receives zero duty, zero quota access for almost all exports to the EU.
    • It is, however, set to graduate from the LDC status in 2026 as its per capita GDP has risen sharply surpassing that of India in FY21.

    Try this question from CS Mains 2018:

     

    Q.What are the key areas of reform if the WTO has to survive in the present context of ‘Trade War’, especially keeping in mind the interest of India?

     

    Reference: https://www.civilsdaily.com/sansad-tv-perspective-wto-reforms/

    (Aspirants need not write whole answers. Just a quick summary with keywords would suffice.)

     

    [wpdiscuz-feedback id=”49mr6oddi2″ question=”Post your answers here.” opened=”1″] [/wpdiscuz-feedback]

     

     

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  • Taiwan: An important ally in the battle against authoritarianism

    Context

    President Joe Biden-led Summit for Democracy was held on December 9-10. The summit was driven by the idea that in the face of populism, authoritarianism it is critical to keep the “democratic” flock together.

    The salience of Summit for Democracy

    • As a goal in itself: The salience of this summit lies in a deeper understanding that democracy is not just a form of government, it is a goal in itself, a value that must be cherished, preserved and celebrated.
    • Democracy as a way of life: Unlike other political systems, democracy is also a way of life — a work in progress that needs sustained attention and careful nurturing to make it more resilient.

    Taiwan as a desired partner of like-minded democracies

    • Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy (NSP) was launched in 2016 to bring Asia closer to Taiwan and vice-versa.
    • The NSP is aimed to be a pivotal tool to engage like-minded democracies in the region.
    • Role in the post-pandemic world: The post-pandemic world would be more invested in some of these areas — for example, health diplomacy and collaboration in the medical sector, climate change mitigation, and developing sustainable and resilient supply chains.
    • Platform for semiconductor industry: Taiwan is already proving its efficacy as a viable platform for the semiconductor industry.
    • Resilient supply chain mechanism: The US and its friends in the region, particularly India, Japan and Australia, have been proactively exploring possibilities of creating resilient supply chain mechanisms.
    • With its technological knowhow, and shared interests and concerns, Taiwan fits perfectly in this agenda.
    • EU’s renewed interest in Indo-Pacific: Greater interactions between Taiwan and EU on the technology cooperation front, stimulated by the latter’s renewed interest in the Indo-Pacific region, makes Taiwan a desired partner of fellow democracies.
    •  As an industrialised democracy, Taiwan could play an important role, especially since countries are trying to reduce dependence on China and establish supply chain resilience.

    Conclusion

    It is important for liberal democracies to acknowledge that they are facing similar challenges and view Taiwan as an indispensable partner. Deft diplomacy is in order since transnational challenges demand joint efforts by liberal democracies.

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  • What is Nord Stream Pipeline?

    Germany has warned about severe consequences for the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline from Russia to Germany if Moscow attacked Ukraine.

    Nord Stream 2 Pipeline

    • It is a system of offshore natural gas pipelines running under the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany.
    • It includes two active pipelines running from Vyborg to Lubmin near Greifswald forming the original Nord Stream, and two further pipelines under construction running from Ust-Luga to Lubmin termed Nord Stream 2.
    • In Lubmin the lines connect to the OPAL line to Olbernhau on the Czech border and to the NEL line to Rehden near Bremen.
    • The first line Nord Stream-1 was laid and inaugurated in 2011 and the second line in 2012.
    • At 1,222 km in length, Nord Stream is the longest sub-sea pipeline in the world, surpassing the Langeled pipeline.

    Why is the pipeline controversial?

    • The US believed that the project would increase Europe’s dependence on Russia for natural gas.
    • Currently, EU countries already rely on Russia for 40 percent of their gas needs.
    • The project also has opponents in eastern Europe, especially Ukraine, whose ties with Russia have seriously deteriorated in the aftermath of the Crimean conflict in 2014.
    • There is an existing land pipeline between Russia and Europe that runs through Ukraine.
    • The country feels that once Nord Storm 2 is completed, Russia could bypass the Ukrainian pipeline, and deprive it of lucrative transit fees of around $3 billion per year.
    • Ukraine also fears another invasion by Russia once the new pipeline is operational.

     

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  • What’s behind the Russia-Ukraine Conflict?

    Thousands of Russian troops have been deployed to stations along Ukraine’s border, sparking fears among Western leaders and Ukraine itself that Moscow is planning an invasion

    Roots of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict

    Ans. USSR disintegration

    • Ukraine was a part of the Russian empire for centuries before becoming a Soviet republic.
    • It won independence as the USSR broke up in 1991.
    • Since then, it has moved to shed its Russian imperial legacy and is in increasingly close ties with the West.
    • After the Crimean annexation, both nations have signed ceasefire agreements at Minsk in 2014 and 2015.

    The beginning

    Ans. Separatist insurgency in Ukraine’s East (by Russian speaking population)

    • In 2014, then Russian-leaning Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych rejected an association agreement with the European Union in favor of closer ties with Moscow.
    • This sparked mass protests that led to his ouster in 2014.
    • Russia responded by annexing Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula and throwing its weight behind a separatist insurgency that broke out in Ukraine’s east.

    Beginning of armed conflict

    • More than 14,000 people have died in the fighting that devastated Ukraine’s eastern industrial heartland known as Donbas.
    • Ukraine and the West accused Russia of sending its troops and weapons to back the rebels.
    • Moscow denied that, charging that Russians who joined the separatists were volunteers.
    • Earlier this year, a spike in cease-fire violations in the east and a Russian troop concentration near Ukraine fueled war fears.

    Why is Russia resented over Ukraine?

    • Cultural ties defying the conflict: The Russian president has repeatedly described Russians and Ukrainians as “one people” and claims that Ukraine has unfairly received historic Russian lands during Soviet times.
    • Influence of the ‘West’: The Kremlin has accused Ukraine of failing to honor the 2015 peace deal and criticized the West for failing to encourage Ukrainian compliance.
    • Asylum to rebels: The agreement was a diplomatic coup for Moscow, requiring Ukraine to grant broad autonomy to the rebel regions and offer a sweeping amnesty to the rebels.
    • Affinity with the US and NATO: Ukraine’s aspirations to join NATO represent a red line for Moscow.

    American concern over Russian build-up

    • Buffer state with Russia: Ukraine is a crucial buffer between Russia and the West.
    • Heavy troop deployment: Russia hasn’t provided any details about its troop numbers and locations, saying that their deployment on its own territory shouldn’t concern anyone.
    • Invasion: Russia is planning to deploy an estimated 175,000 troops and almost half of them are already stationed along various points near Ukraine’s border in preparation for a possible invasion.
    • Protection of its ally: Ukraine has been a close ally of the US. Hence, NATO has placed its military infrastructure closer to Russia.

    Recent developments

    • As it moves a large number of troops towards the border, Russia seeks assurances from the US that Ukraine will not be inducted into NATO.
    • However, US President Joe Biden has made it clear that he is not prepared to give any such assurance.
    • This has left the countries in a stand-off, with tens of thousands of Russian troops ready to invade Ukraine at short notice, and the West not budging on Russia’s demands.
    • Experts believe that Russia is keeping the tensions high at the Ukraine border in order to get sanctions relief and other concessions from the West.

     

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