Subject: Population and associated issues

Why in the News

Kerala's Public Service Commission recruited 6,114 people as teachers in government lower primary schools, and only 239 have been appointed so far. The shortfall traces to falling enrolment at the lower primary level, which is tied to the state's declining birth rate, so a completed demographic transition is now closing public teaching posts.

What is staff fixation?

1. About: Staff fixation is the exercise the Kerala Education Department conducts at the start of each academic year in June, in all government and aided schools, to fix the number of sanctioned teaching posts.
2. Basis of the calculation: Posts are fixed on the number of students actually enrolled, and in the lower primary segment the teacher-student ratio applied is 1:30.
3. Effect on vacancies: When a teacher retires, that vacancy can be filled only if that particular school continues to have the required number of students.
4. Effect on serving teachers: Where a school falls below the required strength, the junior-most teacher can be removed from the post.

What is the crude birth rate?

1. About: The crude birth rate is the number of live births occurring in a year for every 1,000 people in the population, so it measures how fast a population is adding members without adjusting for its age structure.
2. Why it is crude: It counts all persons in the denominator rather than only women of reproductive age, so a population with fewer young adults records a lower rate even at unchanged fertility per woman.

What is a Public Service Commission rank list?

1. About: A rank list is the ordered list of candidates who clear a Public Service Commission recruitment process, from which appointments are made in rank order as vacancies are reported by departments.
2. Validity: A Kerala rank list is valid for a maximum period of three years, after which it lapses and candidates must compete afresh.

Why are the recruited teachers not getting appointed?

1. The recruitment figure: The Public Service Commission recruited 6,114 people as teachers in government lower primary schools for a period of three years starting June 2025.
2. The appointment figure: Only 239 candidates have been appointed so far out of that list.
3. The clock: The existing rank list expires in May 2028, and each such list runs for a maximum of three years.
4. The protest: Rank holders have been on an indefinite agitation in front of the state secretariat, which has run for 41 days.
5. The age barrier: Forty years is the upper age limit to apply for a government job in Kerala, so a candidate who ages out of the list has no second attempt.
6. The stated cause: Stakeholders identify one key reason posts are not being filled, which is the fall in student enrolment at the lower primary level linked to declining birth rates.

Who is waiting on the list?

1. A candidate aged 40: One rank holder passed the teachers' training course 16 years ago in 2010, worked in government schools on daily wages for a few years, and is a single parent of two children.
2. A candidate aged 27: Another completed the teachers' training course in 2017 at the age of 18, worked in various schools on a daily-wage basis, and figured in the 2019 supplementary rank list without securing a job because no appointments were made at the time.
3. The aided school route: Aided school managements are demanding sums ranging from Rs 30 lakh to Rs 40 lakh for a post, which candidates from low-income households cannot pay.
4. A returning migrant: A third candidate aged 36 worked as a salesman in the United Arab Emirates for 14 years before returning to Kerala and clearing the recruitment process.
5. The protection cut-off: Teachers who joined schools up to 2022 are protected and can be redeployed if needed, and those appointed after 2022 are at risk of job loss and must wait for a new vacancy that rarely emerges.

What does Kerala's enrolment data show?

1. Four-year loss: Kerala's government and aided schools lost 3.33 lakh students between 2021-22 and 2025-26.
2. The absolute numbers: Enrolment dipped from 38.68 lakh to 35.35 lakh over that period.
3. First standard this year: Data presented in the Assembly shows 2,06,706 students enrolled in the first standard in government and aided schools following the state board syllabus this year.
4. First standard last year: The corresponding figure in the last academic year was 2,34,476, a drop of 27,770 in a single year.
5. The second cause: Apart from the declining birth rate, many parents are opting to send their children to private schools following the Central Board of Secondary Education syllabus.
6. Consequence for posts: Scores of teaching jobs in the government sector have disappeared over the years for want of students.

What does Kerala's birth rate trajectory show?

1. The 1992 baseline: Kerala's crude birth rate was 17.67 in 1992 and stayed around that level for several years.
2. The 2006 and 2010 readings: It slipped to 16.63 by 2006 and to 15.75 by 2010.
3. Crossing below 15: The rate fell below 15 for the first time in 2016, at 14.48.
4. The 2019 reading: It dropped again to 13.79 in 2019.
5. The pandemic-period fall: It then declined by 1.02 between 2019 and 2020, and by a further 0.83 between 2020 and 2021, the sharpest consecutive falls in the series.

Why is a demographic success now producing an employment problem?

1. The achievement: A falling birth rate in Kerala is the outcome of high female literacy, near-universal schooling and low infant mortality, and it is treated as a development success.
2. The mechanism that converts it into a loss: Staff fixation ties every teaching post to enrolment, so a smaller cohort of children mechanically reduces sanctioned posts.
3. The lag between the two: Teacher training capacity and recruitment lists were built for an earlier cohort size, so supply of trained teachers continues even as demand contracts.
4. The compounding factor: Migration of students to private schools following the Central Board of Secondary Education syllabus removes children from the government and aided system without reducing the total child population.
5. The trap for candidates: A rank holder cannot be appointed against a post that no longer exists. The rank list lapses and the upper age limit closes the route to reapplying.

Challenges to Teacher Recruitment in a Shrinking Cohort

1. Posts tied to enrolment: Sanctioned posts fall automatically with enrolment, so recruitment cannot be planned independently of demographic trend. Eg. Kerala's government and aided schools lost 3.33 lakh students between 2021-22 and 2025-26.
2. Rank lists that lapse unused: A three-year validity period runs out before the vacancies needed for appointment arise. Eg. The 2025 lower primary rank list carrying 6,114 names expires in May 2028 with 239 appointments made so far.
3. Age limits that close the second attempt: Candidates who age out during the wait cannot reapply, which converts a delay into permanent exclusion. Eg. Forty years is the upper age limit for a government job in Kerala, and a rank holder aged 40 has no further attempt.
4. Capitation in the aided sector: Aided school posts are effectively sold, which prices out candidates from low-income households. Eg. The Kerala Education Act, 1958 leaves appointment in an aided school with the private manager while the State pays the appointee's salary.
5. Oversupply of trained teachers: Teacher training institutions continue to produce graduates against contracted demand. Eg. Candidates who completed the teachers' training course in 2010 and 2017 have spent years on daily-wage work without a regular post.
6. Uneven protection across cohorts: Protection rules split serving teachers into secure and insecure groups by date of joining. Eg. Teachers who joined up to 2022 can be redeployed, and those appointed after 2022 face job loss when a school falls below strength.
7. School viability at small sizes: Falling enrolment turns single-teacher and low-strength schools into candidates for closure or merger, which removes local access rather than only posts. Eg. Kerala has repeatedly had to designate uneconomic schools and protect them through special provisions.

Conclusion

Kerala's crude birth rate has fallen from 17.67 in 1992 to below 14 by 2019, with the steepest consecutive falls recorded in 2020 and 2021. Enrolment-linked staff fixation has translated that decline directly into sanctioned posts, so 6,114 recruited teachers have yielded 239 appointments and the rank list expires in May 2028. The state faces a planning problem rather than a recruitment problem, since teacher supply, school size norms and the pupil-teacher ratio were all set for a larger cohort. Resolving it requires revising the ratio, consolidating or repurposing low-strength schools, and aligning teacher training capacity with the demographic trend.

What is Demographic Transition?

1. About: Demographic transition is the shift a population makes from high birth and death rates to low birth and death rates as it develops economically and socially.
2. Rationale: The model explains why population growth accelerates and then slows without any change in policy, since mortality falls before fertility does and the gap between the two produces the growth phase.
3. Stage 1, high stationary: Both birth and death rates are high and fluctuate, so population size stays broadly stable with low growth.
4. Stage 2, early expanding: Death rates fall sharply with better nutrition, sanitation and disease control, and birth rates stay high, which produces rapid population growth.
5. Stage 3, late expanding: Birth rates begin to fall as education, urbanisation, female workforce participation and contraception spread, so growth slows.
6. Stage 4, low stationary: Both rates are low, population growth approaches zero and the age structure ages, which is where Kerala now sits.
7. Stage 5, declining: Birth rates fall below death rates and the population contracts absolutely, with a rising dependency burden of elderly persons.

Key Concerns Regarding Demographic Transition

1. Irreversibility: Once fertility falls well below replacement level, pronatalist policy has rarely restored it, so the smaller cohort persists for decades. Eg. South Korea's total fertility rate fell to about 0.7 despite years of cash incentives and parental leave expansion.
2. A time-bound dividend: The working-age bulge that follows the fertility decline lasts only until that cohort ages, so the window for converting it into growth is finite. Eg. India's working-age share is projected to peak around the early 2040s, after which the dependency ratio begins to rise.
3. Divergence within a federation: States complete the transition at different times, which creates simultaneous ageing in some States and youth pressure in others under one fiscal and political system. Eg. Bihar recorded a total fertility rate close to 3.0 in the fifth National Family Health Survey, the highest among the States.
4. Ageing before affluence: Where the transition completes before per capita income rises, the state must fund pensions and elderly health care from a narrower base. Eg. China's population began ageing rapidly at a per capita income far below the level Japan had reached at the same age structure.
5. Political representation: Population-based allocation of seats and fiscal transfers penalises the States that reduced fertility fastest, which links a public health achievement to a loss of political weight. Eg. Southern States objected to the Fifteenth Finance Commission's use of 2011 Census population, which reduced the weight given to their earlier fertility decline.

Laws and Rules Governing School Education

1. Right of Children to Free and Compulsory Education Act, 2009: Guarantees free and compulsory elementary education for children aged 6 to 14 and prescribes norms for schools.
2. It prescribes a pupil-teacher ratio of 30:1 at the primary stage and 35:1 at the upper primary stage, and bars deployment of teachers for non-educational work other than census, disaster relief and election duty.
3. Kerala Education Act, 1958 and the Kerala Education Rules, 1959: Govern government and aided schools in the State, including staff fixation, protection of teachers, and management obligations in aided schools.
4. National Council for Teacher Education Act, 1993: Establishes the statutory body that regulates teacher education institutions and prescribes minimum qualifications for teachers.
5. Right of Children to Free and Compulsory Education (Amendment) Act, 2019: Extended the deadline for serving teachers to acquire the prescribed minimum qualifications.
6. National Education Policy, 2020: Sets the policy framework for school complexes, rationalisation of small schools, foundational literacy and numeracy, and a shift in the school structure to the 5+3+3+4 design.
7. Kerala Public Service Commission rules: Govern rank list preparation, validity of three years, advice for appointment in rank order and the upper age limit for entry into government service.

Government Initiatives

1. Samagra Shiksha: The integrated centrally sponsored scheme for school education from pre-school to Class 12, covering teacher salaries, infrastructure, inclusive education and quality interventions.
2. NIPUN Bharat Mission: Targets universal foundational literacy and numeracy by the end of Grade 3, with State-level implementation through Samagra Shiksha.
3. PM SHRI Schools: Upgrades selected existing schools into model schools demonstrating the National Education Policy, 2020 in practice.
4. PM POSHAN: Provides a hot cooked meal to children in government and government-aided schools from pre-primary to Class 8, which also supports attendance.
5. Vidyanjali: A school volunteer initiative connecting alumni, professionals and community members to schools for teaching support and asset contribution.
6. ULLAS Nav Bharat Saaksharta Karyakram: The adult education programme covering foundational literacy, critical life skills and vocational skills for non-literate adults aged 15 and above.
7. National Programme for Elderly Care: The National Programme for the Health Care of the Elderly and the Atal Vayo Abhyuday Yojana provide geriatric health services and old age support, which are the counterpart of a completed demographic transition.

Key Facts about Kerala's Demographic Profile

1. Fertility position: Kerala's total fertility rate is around 1.5, well below the replacement level of 2.1, and among the lowest in the country.
2. Literacy: Kerala recorded a literacy rate of about 94 per cent in the 2011 Census, the highest among the major States, and was declared India's first fully literate State in 1991.
3. Sex ratio: Kerala has the highest sex ratio among the major States at 1,084 females per 1,000 males in the 2011 Census.
4. Ageing: Kerala has the highest share of elderly persons among the major States, with those aged 60 and above forming a substantially larger share than the national average.
5. Life expectancy: Kerala records the highest life expectancy at birth among Indian States, above 75 years.
6. Infant mortality: Kerala reports the lowest infant mortality rate in the country, in the mid-single digits per 1,000 live births.
7. World Population Day: Observed on 11 July each year.
8. Multidimensional poverty: Kerala records the lowest multidimensional poverty headcount ratio in the country, at around 0.55 per cent.

Back2Basics: Total Fertility Rate and Replacement Level Fertility

1. Total fertility rate: The total fertility rate is the average number of children a woman would bear over her lifetime if she experienced the age-specific fertility rates observed in a given year.
2. Why it differs from the birth rate: Unlike the crude birth rate, the total fertility rate is independent of the population's age structure, so it compares fertility behaviour across populations directly.
3. Replacement level: Replacement level fertility is the level at which each generation exactly replaces itself, which is why the threshold sits at 2.1 rather than at 2.0.
4. Why the threshold exceeds two: The additional 0.1 accounts for girls who do not survive to the end of their reproductive years and for the slight excess of male births over female births.
5. India's position: The National Family Health Survey placed India's total fertility rate at 2.0, below replacement level for the first time.
6. Data sources: The Sample Registration System of the Registrar General of India and the National Family Health Survey are the two principal sources of fertility estimates for India.
7. State variation: Southern States and several smaller States record fertility well below replacement level, and a few large northern States remain above it. That gap is the source of interstate demographic divergence.
8. Momentum: Population continues to grow for decades after fertility falls below replacement, because a large cohort of women is still passing through reproductive age.

Challenges in Managing a Completed Demographic Transition

1. Elderly care infrastructure: A rising share of elderly persons needs geriatric health, palliative care and long-term support that the health system was not built for. Eg. Kerala has the highest share of elderly persons among major States and runs one of the country's largest palliative care networks to cope.
2. Pension and social security coverage: Most workers are outside contributory pension systems, so old age income support falls on State budgets. Eg. State social security pensions are among the largest recurring items in Kerala's revenue expenditure.
3. Shrinking working-age base: A smaller entering cohort narrows the tax base, and commitments to the elderly rise at the same time. Eg. Kerala's first standard enrolment fell from 2,34,476 to 2,06,706 in a single year.
4. Labour shortage and in-migration: Sectors dependent on manual labour recruit from other States, which brings its own housing, health and language integration questions. Eg. Kerala hosts a very large interstate migrant workforce in construction, hospitality and fisheries.
5. Public asset underuse: Schools, anganwadis and child health facilities built for a larger cohort operate below capacity and become fiscally inefficient. Eg. Scores of government teaching posts in Kerala have lapsed for want of students.
6. Delimitation and representation: Seat allocation based on population penalises States that completed the transition earliest. Eg. Lok Sabha seats have been frozen at 543 on 1971 Census figures, and southern States stand to lose seats in a population-based redistribution.
7. Out-migration of the young: Educated young people migrate for work, which accelerates ageing at home and makes local recruitment queues longer for those who stay. Eg. Candidates on the Kerala teachers' rank list include one who worked in the United Arab Emirates for 14 years before returning.

Way Forward

1. Revise the pupil-teacher ratio: Lower the lower primary ratio from 1:30 so smaller classes are funded rather than left to shed posts, in line with the quality objectives of the National Education Policy, 2020.
2. Consolidate through school complexes: Group low-strength schools into school complexes sharing teachers and specialist subjects, so access is retained without maintaining unviable standalone posts.
3. Extend rank list validity where the state causes the delay: Provide statutory extension of a rank list, and relaxation of the upper age limit, where non-appointment results from a failure to report vacancies.
4. Align teacher training capacity: Regulate intake into teacher training courses against projected cohort size, so training output does not exceed sanctioned posts by an order of magnitude.
5. Enforce prohibition of capitation in aided schools: Prosecute the sale of aided school teaching posts, since Rs 30 lakh to Rs 40 lakh demands convert a public post into a purchased one.
6. Redeploy surplus teachers to new roles: Absorb protected and surplus teachers into pre-primary education, special education, remedial instruction and adult literacy under ULLAS, rather than treating them as excess.
7. Plan for ageing alongside schooling: Convert underused school and anganwadi infrastructure into day care and geriatric service centres, matching the asset base to the new age structure.

Matching Previous Year Question

“[2024, GS1, 10] What is the concept of a 'demographic winter'? Is the world moving towards such a situation? Elaborate.”