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Type: IOCR

  • What is the I2U2 Initiative?

    The US administration has named the new grouping as “I2U2” — “I” for India and Israel and “U” for the US and UAE. This was earlier referred as West Asian Quad.

    What is the news?

    • US President Joe Biden will host a virtual summit with PM Modi, Israel PM Naftali Bennett and UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan during his visit to West Asia from July 13 to 16.

    I2U2 Initiative

    • Following the Abraham Accords between Israel and the UAE, I2U2 was founded in October 2021 to address marine security, infrastructure, and transportation challenges in the region.
    • It was known as the ‘International Forum for Economic Cooperation’at the time.
    • At that time, UAE had referred to the new grouping as the ‘West Asian Quad’.

    What makes this deal outstanding?

    • UAE forming sharing desk with Israel is no easy deal. Arab sentiments against Israel and their proposition for Anti-Semitism are well known.

    Significance of the initiative

    • I2U2 seeks to empower the partners and encourages them to collaborate more closely, resulting in a more stable region.
    • India is seen as a large consumer market as well as a large producer of high-tech and highly sought-after items in the United States.
    • This has led India to enhance its relationship with Israel without jeopardising its ties with the UAE and other Arab states.

    Back2Basics: Abraham Accords

    • The Israel–UAE normalization agreement is officially called the Abraham Accords Peace Agreement.
    • It was initially agreed to in a joint statement by the United States, Israel and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) on August 13, 2020.
    • The UAE thus became the third Arab country, after Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994, to agree to formally normalize its relationship with Israel as well as the first Persian Gulf country to do so.
    • Concurrently, Israel agreed to suspend plans for annexing parts of the West Bank. The agreement normalized what had long been informal but robust foreign relations between the two countries.

     

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  • Back in news: India- ASEAN Relations

    The Foreign Minister of Myanmar is unlikely to be part of the 24th ASEAN-India Ministerial summit.

    What is the news?

    • Myanmar’s absence is the souring ASEAN-Myanmar.
    • This is after the coup that overthrew the Aung San Suu Kyi government in Myanmar.
    • This shows India’s concern over the junta in Myanmar which has refused to enter into a negotiation

    What is ASEAN?

    • ASEAN is a political and economic union of 10 member states in Southeast Asia.
    • It brings together ten Southeast Asian states – Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam – into one organisation.
    • It was established on 8th August 1967 in Bangkok, Thailand with the signing of the Bangkok Declaration by the founding fathers of the countries of Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, and the Philippines.
    • The preceding organisation was the Association of Southeast Asia (ASA) comprising of Thailand, the Philippines, and Malaysia.
    • Five other nations joined the ASEAN in subsequent years making the current membership to ten countries.

    India-ASEAN Relations: A Backgrounder

    • Look-East Policy in 1992 gave an upthrust to India -ASEAN relation and helped India in capitalizing its historical, cultural and civilizational linkages with the region.
    • India entered into a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in goods with the region in 2003 which has facilitated the bilateral trade which now stands at approximately USD 76 Billion.
    • Further, the launch of Act East Policy in 2014 has added a new vigour to India-ASEAN relations.

    Significance of ASEAN to India

    • ASEAN’s centrality in India’s foreign policy – A cohesive, responsive, and prosperous ASEAN is central to India’s Indo-Pacific Vision and India’s Act East Policy and contributes to Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR).
    • Economic – ASEAN is the one of the largest market in the world comparative to the EU and North American markets.
      • It’s also the 4th most popular investment destination globally.
    • Investment opportunities for Indian businesses – Cost of production is lower in Laos, Cambodia, and Myanmar, which means that Indian firms can gain significantly by investing in these countries.
    • Countering China – Cooperation between India and ASEAN is crucial to counter China’s power projection in the region. Both have territorial and border issues with China, disputes over the South China Islands and waters for ASEAN and over land boundaries for India.
    • Integration with regional and global supply chains – Increasing engagement with ASEAN is pivotal to facilitate India’s integration with regional and global supply chain movements.
    • North-East development – Connectivity projects with the ASEAN nations keeping Northeast India at the centre can ensure the economic growth of the land-locked north-eastern states.
      • Collaboration with the ASEAN nations is necessary to counter insurgency in the Northeast, combat terrorism, etc.
    • Maritime security – The Indian Ocean carries 90% of India’s trade and its energy sources. Presence of choke points such as the Malacca strait makes the South-East Asian region significant for countering traditional and non-traditional maritime threats like piracy and terrorism.
    • Indian Diaspora – About 9-8% of the population in Malaysia and Singapore is of Indian origin, in Myanmar-4% and Indonesia about 0.5%.

    Areas of Cooperation

    • Economic Cooperation – ASEAN is India’s 4th largest trading partner.
      • India signed FTA in goods in 2009 and an FTA in services and investments in 2014 with ASEAN.
      • India has a Comprehensive Economic Cooperation Agreement (CECA) with various countries of the ASEAN region which has resulted in concessional trade and a rise in investments.
    • Political Cooperation – ASEAN-India Centre (AIC) was established to undertake policy research, advocacy and networking activities with organizations and think-tanks in India and ASEAN.
      • Delhi Dialogue – Annual Track 1.5 event for discussing politico-security and economic issues between ASEAN and India.
    • Financial Assistance – India provides financial assistance to the ASEAN nations through various mechanism like ASEAN-India Cooperation Fund, ASEAN-India S&T Development Fund and ASEAN-India Green Fund.
    • Connectivity – India has been undertaking several connectivity projects like India-Myanmar-Thailand Trilateral (IMT) Highway and the Kaladan Multimodal Project.
      • India is also trying to establish a Maritime Transportation Agreementwith ASEAN and also Plans for a Railway link between New Delhi in India to Hanoi in Vietnam.
    • Socio-Cultural Cooperation – Programmes to boost People-to-People Interaction with ASEAN are organized, such as inviting ASEAN students to India, Special Training Course for ASEAN diplomats, Exchange of Parliamentarians, etc.
    • Defence Cooperation – Joint Naval and Military exercises are conducted between India and most ASEAN countries.
      • Vietnam has traditionally been a close friend on defense issues, Singapore is also an equally important partner.
    • Maritime Cooperation – adopted Delhi Declaration and decided to identify Cooperation in the Maritime Domain as the key area of cooperation under the ASEAN-India strategic partnership.
      • India is developing its maiden deep-sea port in a strategically located Sabang port in Indonesia.

    REGIONAL COMPREHENSIVE ECONOMIC PARTNERSHIP (RCEP) AGREEMENT

    • RCEP is a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) that has been signed between 15 countries including the 10 ASEAN members, China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand.
      • RCEP was first proposed in 2011 with an aim to create a consolidated market for the ASEAN countries and their trade partners.
      • RCEP now forms the world’s largest trade bloc, covering over 2.2 billion people and accounting for 30% of the world’s economy.
    • Though India was a part of the RCEP’s negotiations, it dropped out in November 2019, citing significant outstanding issues that remain unresolved.

    Reasons behind India pulling out of RCEP

    • Trade imbalance with RCEP members – India’s trade deficit with RCEP countries has almost doubled in the last five-six years.
    • Chinese Angle – From a geopolitical perspective, RCEP is China-led or is intended to expand China’s influence in Asia. India has already signed FTA with all the countries of RCEP except China.
    • Signing of RCEP can lead to cheaper products from China flooding the Indian market.
    • Lack of adequate protection for domestic industries – India’s proposals for strict Rules of Origin (to prevent routing of products from non-RCEP countries) and an Auto-trigger mechanism to impose tariffs when imports crossed a certain threshold which were not accepted.
    • Lack of Service component – Most developed RCEP countries where India can export services, have been unwilling to negotiate wide-ranging disciplines in services that can create new market access for trade in services in this region.
    • Concerns by local industries – A large number of sectors including dairy, agriculture, steel, automobiles, etc had expressed serious apprehensions on RCEP citing dominance of cheap foreign goods would dampen its business.
    • India’s FTA experience – India’s FTAs has generally led to greater imports than exports, giving rise to high trade deficits with FTA partners like South Korea, Japan, and ASEAN.

    Possible Implications of India not joining RCEP

    Protectionist image – Withdrawal from RCEP along with other recent measures like call for self-reliance under Atmanirbhar Abhiyan, etc can be perceived as India taking a protectionist stance in terms of trade policy.

    Lost opportunity for India’s export sector – RCEP was envisaged to strengthen Asian supply chains, bring in investments and boost the member countries’ competitiveness in global markets.

    Effect on bilateral ties with RCEP countries – There are concerns that the decision will hamper India’s bilateral trade with RCEP member countries as they would be inclined to bolster trade within the bloc.

    Lost opportunity in securing a position in the post COVID world: RCEP is expected to help member countries emerge from the economic devastation caused by the pandemic through access to regional supply chains.

    Arguments for reviewing India’s decision

    • Global Economic Stagnation due to Covid-19 pandemic – RCEP can serve as a bulwark in containing the free fall of the global economy and re-energising economic activity.
      • RCEP presents a unique opportunity to support India’s economic recovery, inclusive development, and job creation even as it helps strengthen regional supply chains.
    • Economic Realism – India should deter seeing RCEP only from the Chinese perspective.
      • India can draw inspiration from Japan & Australia, as they chose to bury their geopolitical differences with China to prioritise what they collectively see as a mutually beneficial trading compact.
    • Strategic Need – RCEP’s membership is a prerequisite to having a say in shaping RCEP’s rules, which is necessary to safeguard India’s interests and the interests of several countries that are too small to stand up to the largest member, China.
    • As the summary of the final agreement shows, the pact does cover and attempt to address some issues that India had flagged, including rules of origin, trade in services, movement of persons. Therefore, this makes the case of India to review its decision and look RCEP through the lens of economic realism.

    Challenges in India-ASEAN Relations

    • China factor – India’s effort in this regard is meagre when compared to China’s dominance in the region
      • China’s assertive military, political and economic rise, as well as the South China Sea disputes have divided ASEAN without unanimity amongst them.
    • Economic challenges – India has an unfavourable balance of trade with the ASEAN nations.
    • RCEP deal – India walking out of RCEP can become a sticking point between India and ASEAN, since India’s domestic market was considered a key element in the RCEP negotiations.
      • India has not signed RCEP for various reasons like non-transparency in RCEP, RCEP’s non-accounting of India’s service sector relaxations, etc.
      • By not signing the RCEP India also lose access to new market opportunities created in East Asia.
    • Slow development in Bilateral relations – Many bilateral deals with these nations are yet to be finalised, leading to the halting of various aspects of diplomatic ties.
    • Delayed projects – Though India has committed to many connectivity projects, they have not been completed at the rate on par with China
      • China, on the other hand, through its BRI, is able to gain the trust of these countries.

    India’s pulling out of the RCEP deal shows the limitations of the ties with the ASEAN nations. Maintaining cordial ties, both bilaterally and multilaterally with these nations is essential for both India’s economic and security interests.

    South-East Asian nations are looking at India to take on a greater role for the economic integration of the region and for ensuring an open and inclusive Indo-Pacific. Many of the members of the ASEAN perceive India as a much-needed counterbalance to China.

    Way Forward

    • An alternative economic corridor based multimodal connectivity such as Mekong-India Economic Corridor may be promoted, which will connect Indian coast with unexplored Southeast Asian coast and beyond.
      • Strengthening land, air, and sea linkages will enhance people-to-people flows, as well as boost business, investment, and tourism.
      • With China having three times more commercial flights than India to Southeast Asia, improving air connectivity between India and ASEAN countries should also be high on the agenda.
    • India has proposed setting up of an ASEAN-India Network of Universities (AINU) to enhance our educational ties.
    • India can become the military partner after the Atma Nirbar Bharat, Make in India projects are successfully implemented.
      • No ASEAN country has close military ties with China as they never trusted China for military alliance.
    • Concept of QUAD must be expanded to include the ASEAN countries and become a QUAD+ arrangement.
      • Vietnam and Indonesia have expressed a positive note on QUAD in the region.
    • Digital technologies – Given the reluctance of ASEAN states to take help from Chinese giants in the field (due to concerns regarding China’s ability to own data), Indian IT sector may take some advantage.
    • Strengthening cultural connect – Tourism can be further encouraged between India and the ASEAN with some creative branding by the two sides.

    Failure of South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) has made India look outside South Asia towards countries of Southeast Asia for economic and political cooperation.

    The ASEAN region has become strategically important for India due to its growing importance in the world politics. And for India to be a regional power as it claims to be, continuing to enhance its relations with ASEAN in all spheres must be a priority.

  • [pib] BIMSTEC Technology Transfer Facility (TTF)

    The Union Cabinet chaired by the PM has approved a Memorandum of Association (MoA) by India for the establishment of the BIMSTEC Technology Transfer Facility (TTF).

    What is BIMSTEC?

    • The BIMSTEC formed in 1997 is an international organisation of seven South Asian and Southeast Asian nations, housing 1.73 billion people and having a combined gross domestic product of $3.8 trillion (2021).
    • The BIMSTEC member states – Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand – are among the countries dependent on the Bay of Bengal.
    • Leadership is rotated in alphabetical order of country names. The permanent secretariat is in Dhaka, Bangladesh.
    • A BIMSTEC free trade agreement is under negotiation (c. 2018), also referred to as the mini SAARC.

    What is BIMSTEC TTF?

    • The agreement was signed by the BIMSTEC member countries at the 5th BIMSTEC Summit held at Colombo, Sri Lanka on 30th March, 2022.
    • The main objectives of the BIMSTEC TTF are to coordinate, facilitate and strengthen cooperation in technology transfer among the BIMSTEC Member States.
    • It aims to promote the transfer of technologies, sharing of experiences and capacity building.
    • The TTF shall have a Governing Board and the overall control of activities of the TTF shall be vested in the Governing Board.
    • The Governing Board shall consist of one nominee from each Member State.

    Expected outcomes

    The expected outcomes of the BIMSTEC TTF are:

    • Databank of technologies available in BIMSTEC Countries,
    • Repository of information on good practices in the areas of technology transfer management, standards, accreditation, metrology, testing and calibration facilities,
    • Capacity building, sharing of experiences and good practices in development, and
    • Transfer and use of technologies among BIMSTEC countries.

     

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  • FATF and Pakistan’s position on its ‘Grey List’

    Pakistan which continues to face an economic crunch from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), is hoping for some respite in the form of its removal from the FATF’s ‘grey list’.

    What is the FATF?

    • The FATF is an international watchdog for financial crimes such as money laundering and terror financing.
    • It was established at the G7 Summit of 1989 in Paris to address loopholes in the global financial system after member countries raised concerns about growing money laundering activities.
    • In the aftermath of the 9/11 terror attack on the US, FATF also added terror financing as a main focus area.
    • This was later broadened to include restricting the funding of weapons of mass destruction.
    • The FATF currently has 39 members.

    Working of FATF

    • The decision-making body of the FATF, known as its plenary, meets thrice a year.
    • Its meetings are attended by 206 countries of the global network.
    • It includes members, and observer organisations, such as the World Bank, some offices of the UN, and regional development banks.

    Functions of FATF

    • The FATF sets standards or recommendations for countries to achieve in order to plug the holes in their financial systems and make them less vulnerable to illegal financial activities.
    • It conducts regular peer-reviewed evaluations called Mutual Evaluations (ME) of countries to check their performance on standards prescribed by it.
    • The reviews are carried out by FATF and FATF-Style Regional Bodies (FSRBs), which then release Mutual Evaluation Reports (MERs).
    • For the countries that don’t perform well on certain standards, time-bound action plans are drawn up.
    • Recommendations for countries range from assessing risks of crimes to setting up legislative, investigative and judicial mechanisms to pursue cases of money laundering and terror funding.

    What are the Black List and the Grey List?

    • The words ‘grey’ and ‘black’ list do not exist in the official FATF lexicon.
    • They however designate countries that need to work on complying with FATF directives and those who are non-compliant.
    1. Black List: The blacklist, now called the “Call for action” was the common shorthand description for the FATF list of “Non-Cooperative Countries or Territories” (NCCTs).
    2. Grey List: Countries that are considered safe haven for supporting terror funding and money laundering are put in the FATF grey list. This inclusion serves as a warning to the country that it may enter the blacklist.

    Consequences of being:

    (1) In the grey list:

    • Economic sanctions from IMF, World Bank, ADB
    • Problem in getting loans from IMF, World Bank, ADB and other countries
    • Reduction in international trade
    • International boycott

    (2) In the black list:

    • High-risk jurisdictions subject to call for action
    • Countries have considerable deficiencies in their AML/CFT (anti-money laundering and counter terrorist financing) regimens
    • Enhanced due diligence
    • Members are told to apply counter-measures such as sanctions on the listed countries

    Note: Currently, North Korea and Iran are on the black list.

    Pakistan and FATF

    • Pakistan, which continues to remain on the “grey list” of FATF, had earlier been given the deadline till the June to ensure compliance with the 27-point action plan against terror funding networks.
    • It has been under the FATF’s scanner since June 2018, when it was put on the Grey List for terror financing and money laundering risks.
    • FATF and its partners such as the Asia Pacific Group (APG) are reviewing Pakistan’s processes, systems, and weaknesses on the basis of a standard matrix for anti-money laundering (AML) and combating the financing of terrorism (CFT) regime.

    Why is Pakistan on the grey list?

    • Pakistan has found itself on the grey list frequently since 2008, for weaknesses in fighting terror financing and money laundering.
    • It never addressed concerns on the front of terror financing investigations and prosecutions targeting senior leaders and commanders of UN-designated terrorist groups.
    • However, now steps had been taken in this direction such as the sentencing of terror outfit chief Hafiz Saeed, prosecution of Masood Azhar and seizure of their properties.
    • India meanwhile, a member of FATF, suspects the efficacy and permanence of Pakistani actions.

    Steps taken by Pakistan

    • Pakistan is currently banking on its potential exclusion from the grey list to help improve the status of tough negotiations with the International Monetary Fund to get bailout money.
    • Pakistan is now making a high-level political commitment to the FATF and APG to address its strategic AML/CFT deficiencies.

     

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  • Explained: European Union’s ban on Russian Oil

    As part of the sixth package of sanctions since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the European Union member states reached an agreement to ban 90% of Russian crude oil imports by the end of the year.

    Oil embargo on Russia

    • The proposal is to completely phase out Russian crude and refined products from EU territory.
    • It includes a complete import ban on all Russian oil, seaborne and pipeline crude and refined.
    • This however needed the agreement of all the 27 EU member states in order to be implemented.

    What was the rationale behind such a move?

    • The Russian economy is heavily dependent on energy exports, with the EU paying billions of dollars every month to Russia.
    • The EU wants to block this massive revenue inflow.
    • This is akin to Europeans bankrolling Russia’s war.

    Why such a move now?

    • The EU has been attempting, ever since the Ukraine invasion, to build consensus on ways to hurt Russia economically.
    • The most obvious route was to stop buying Russian energy, which isn’t easy given European households’ dependence on Russian oil and gas.

    What are the terms of the ‘compromise deal’ that has been agreed upon?

    • EU leaders have agreed to ban all seaborne imports of Russian crude, which account for two-thirds of EU’s oil imports from Russia.
    • Germany and Poland are pledging to phase out even their pipeline imports from Russia by the end of the year.
    • The embargo would eliminate 90% of Russian oil imports.

    Special concessions to Hungary

    • The remaining 10% that’s been allowed represents a free pass for Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Bulgaria to continue imports via the Druzhba pipeline, the world’s largest oil pipeline network.
    • Hungary has obtained a guarantee that it could even import seaborne Russian oil in case of a disruption to their pipeline supplies.
    • This was deemed a legitimate concession since the pipelines do pass through the war zone in Ukraine.

    Why was exemption given for pipeline imports?

    • The exemption for pipeline imports was made on the logic that landlocked countries (Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia).
    • They are heavily dependent on Russian pipeline oil and do not have a ready option to switch to alternative sources in the absence of ports.

    How will the sanctions affect Russia?

    • Analysts calculate that a two-thirds cut in Europe’s imports might cause Russia an annual loss in revenue of $10 billion.
    • Given Russia’s limited storage infrastructure, the cutback in demand would force Russia to find other markets.
    • Since that won’t be easy, Russia might have to cut production by 20-30%.
    • So far, Asian importers, especially India, have absorbed some of the excess inventory at discounted prices.

    Impact on the ongoing war

    • It remains unclear if the embargo would have any impact on Russian military operations in Ukraine.

    How will the sanctions affect Europe?

    • It is likely to further fuel inflation in Europe, where many countries are already facing a cost-of-living crisis.
    • European lifestyles have tended to take cheap Russian energy for granted, and if inflation peaks further, the EU runs the risk of losing public support for harsh sanctions.

    What about the import of Russian gas?

    • Compared to Russian oil, Europe’s dependence on Russian gas is much greater, and this embargo leaves the import of Russian gas — which accounts of 40% of Europe’s natural gas imports — untouched.
    • In other words, Europe will continue to pay Russia for gas imports.
    • But since crude is more expensive than natural gas, the oil ban is expected to hurt Russian revenues.

    Indian response to these developments

    • India ramped up purchases of Russian crude at discounted prices in the months following the Russian invasion, and this policy is expected to continue.
    • The announcement of the EU ban caused an immediate surge in oil prices, and as Europe seeks alternate sources – from West Asia, Africa and elsewhere — for its oil needs, prices are expected to stay high.
    • In this context, with Russia reportedly offering discounts of $30-35 per barrel, India has found it convenient to make the most of the cheap Russian crude on offer.

     

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  • Pak delegation in India for Indus Water Treaty talks

    A five-member Pakistani delegation has arrived in India for talks over the ongoing water dispute under the Indus Water Commission between the two countries.

    Why in news?

    • India is building 10 hydro plant projects to cut excess water into Pakistan.
    • Pakistan is expected to raise the projects being constructed by India under the Indus treaty.

    What is Indus Water Treaty?

    • The Indus Waters Treaty is a water-distribution treaty between India and Pakistan, brokered by the World Bank signed in Karachi in 1960.
    • According to this agreement, control over the water flowing in three “eastern” rivers of India — the Beas, the Ravi and the Sutlej was given to India
    • The control over the water flowing in three “western” rivers of India — the Indus, the Chenab and the Jhelum was given to Pakistan.

    Basis of the treaty: Equitable water-sharing

    • Back in time, partitioning the Indus rivers system was inevitable after the Partition of India in 1947.
    • The sharing formula devised after prolonged negotiations sliced the Indus system into two halves.
    • Equitable it may have seemed, but the fact remained that India conceded 80.52 percent of the aggregate water flows in the Indus system to Pakistan.
    • It also gave Rs 83 crore in pounds sterling to Pakistan to help build replacement canals from the western rivers.
    • Such generosity is unusual of an upper riparian.
    • India conceded its upper riparian position on the western rivers for the complete rights on the eastern rivers.
    • Water was critical for India’s development plans.

    What were the rights accorded to India?

    • The treaty allowed India to use western rivers water for limited irrigation use and unrestricted use for power generation, domestic industrial and non-consumptive uses such as navigation, floating of property, fish culture, etc.
    • It lays down precise regulations to build any water or hydel projects.
    • India has been given the right to generate hydroelectricity through run-of-the-river projects on the western rivers subject to specific criteria for design and operation.
    • The pact also gives the right to Pakistan to raise objections to designs of Indian hydroelectric projects on the western rivers.

    Significance of the treaty

    • It is a treaty that is often cited as an example of the possibilities of peaceful coexistence that exist despite the troubled relationship.
    • It has survived 3 crucial wars.
    • It may be listed among the most successful international treaties as it has withstood the test of time.

    Why has the treaty survived?

    • It is for India’s generosity on Pakistan for sharing waters of its own rivers.
    • India has refrained from weaponizing waters. Pakistan cannot survive without this treaty.
    • About 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture depends on Indus and the riparian rivers waters.
    • Backtracking on the treaty could affect India’s stand as global reliable partner who disrespects bilateral agreements.

    A tacit nerve of terroristan

    • Responding to state sponsor of terrorism by Pakistan, India can escalate a water war , which can kill the crippling economy of Pakistan.
    • If India wants, it can either flood or drought-starve Pakistan by not obligating to this treaty.

    Need for a rethink

    • But PM Modi’s words equally hold relevance that “Blood and waters cannot flow together”.
    • There is no reason to believe that India could start a water war with Pakistan on humanitarian grounds.
    • Floods and droughts will starve ordinary Pakistanis while their politicians would still live in luxury.

    Way forward

    • The role of India, as a responsible upper riparian abiding by the provisions of the treaty, has been remarkable.
    • However, India needs to rethink or re-negotiate this treaty.
    • Just like water affects ordinary Pakistanis, so does terrorism affects Indians.

     

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  • Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF)

    India has signalled its readiness to be part of a new economic initiative led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF) by the US for the region.

    What is IPEF?

    • The grouping, which includes seven out of 10 members of the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN), all four Quad countries, and New Zealand, represents about 40% of global GDP.
    • The negotiations for the IPEF are expected to centre around four main pillars, including trade, supply chain resiliency, clean energy and decarbonisation, and taxes and anti-corruption measures.
    • Countries would have to sign up to all of the components within a module, but do not have to participate in all modules.
    • The “fair and resilient trade” module will be led by the US Trade Representative and include digital, labor, and environment issues, with some binding commitments.
    • The IPEF seeks to strengthen economic partnership amongst participating countries with the objective of enhancing resilience, sustainability, inclusiveness, economic growth, fairness, and competitiveness in the Indo-Pacific region.

    Features of IPEF

    • US officials made it clear that the IPEF would not be a “free trade agreement”, nor are countries expected to discuss reducing tariffs or increasing market access.
    • The IPEF will not include market access commitments such as lowering tariff barriers,
    • In that sense, the IPEF would not seek to replace the 11-nation CPTPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) that the US quit in 2017, or the RCEP, which China, and all of the other IPEF countries (minus the US) are a part of.
    • Three ASEAN countries considered closer to China — Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos — are not members of the IPEF.

    Four pillars of IPEF

    1. Trade that will include digital economy and emerging technology, labour commitments, the environment, trade facilitation, transparency and good regulatory practices, and corporate accountability, standards on cross-border data flows and data localisations;
    2. Supply chain resiliency to develop “a first-of-its-kind supply chain agreement” that would anticipate and prevent disruptions;
    3. Clean energy and decarbonisation that will include agreements on “high-ambition commitments” such as renewable energy targets, carbon removal purchasing commitments, energy efficiency standards, and new measures to combat methane emissions; and
    4. Tax and anti-corruption, with commitments to enact and enforce “effective tax, anti-money laundering, anti-bribery schemes in line with [American] values”.

    Reasons for creation of IPEF

    • The IPEF is also seen as a means by which the US is trying to regain credibility in the region after former President Donald Trump pulled out of the Trans Pacific Partnership TPP).
    • Since then, there has been concern over the absence of a credible US economic and trade strategy to counter China’s economic influence in the region.
    • China is an influential member of the TPP, and has sought membership of its successor agreement Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement on Trans Pacific Partnership.
    • It is also in the 14-member Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership, of which the US is not a member (India withdrew from RCEP).
    • The Biden Administration is projecting IPEF as the new US vehicle for re-engagement with East Asia and South East Asia.

     

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  • Illegal fishing by China in the Indo-Pacific

    In order to check China’s illegal fishing in the Indo-Pacific region, the Quadrilateral Security Alliance (Quad) has planned to launch a satellite-based surveillance initiative.

    What is the news?

    • The leaders of Quad are reported to be getting ready to unveil a maritime surveillance initiative to protect exclusive economic zones in the Indo-Pacific against environmental damage.

    How will the proposed maritime surveillance system work?

    • The initiative will use satellite technology to connect existing surveillance centres in India, Singapore and the Pacific.
    • This will help establish a tracking system to combat illegal, unregulated and unprotected (IUU) fishing.
    • The satellite-enabled dragnet will track IUU fishing activities from the Indian Ocean and South-east Asia to the South Pacific.
    • The idea is to monitor illicit fishing vessels that have their AIS (automatic identification system) transponders turned off to evade tracking.
    • The move by the Quad security group is also seen to be aimed at reducing the small Pacific island nations’ growing reliance on China.

    Why is illegal fishing seen as such a big threat?

    • The unregulated plunder of global fishing stock poses a grave threat to the livelihood and food security of millions of people.
    • Globally, fish provide about 3.3 billion people with 20% of their average animal protein intake.
    • According to an FAO report, around 60 million people are engaged in the sector of fisheries and aquaculture.
    • While the economic loss from illegal fishing has been difficult to precisely quantify, some estimates peg it around USD 20 billion annually.

    Threats posed by IUU Fishing

    • Illegal fishing has now replaced piracy as a global maritime threat.
    • In the Indo-Pacific region, like elsewhere, the collapse of fisheries can destabilise coastal nations.
    • It poses a much bigger security risk, as it can fuel human trafficking, drug crime and terror recruiting.

    Why is China in the dock?

    • The 2021 IUU Fishing Index, which maps 152 coastal countries, ranked China as the worst offender.
    • China is considered responsible for 80% to 95% illegal fishing in the region after having overfished its own waters.
    • It, in fact, is known to incentivise illegal fishing with generous subsidies to meet its growing domestic demand.

    China and distant-water fishing (DWF)

    • China’s DWF fleet has almost 17,000 vessels and is the largest in the world.
    • Vessel ownership is highly fragmented among many small companies and the fleet includes vessels registered in other jurisdictions.

    Issues with Chinese IUU Fishing

    • Chinese are often accused of pillaging ocean wealth with great sophistication and with little regard for maritime boundaries.
    • China also uses them to project strategic influence and to bully fishing vessels from weaker nations.
    • China uses destructive practises such as bottom trawling and forced, bonded and slave labour and trafficked crew, alongside the widespread abuse of migrant crewmembers.

     

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  • NATO Expansion & Russia

    After nearly three months of debate within the two countries, Finland and Sweden have formally applied for membership of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO).

    What is NATO?

    • NATO is a military alliance established by the North Atlantic Treaty (also called the Washington Treaty) of April 4, 1949.
    • It sought to create a counterweight to Soviet armies stationed in Central and Eastern Europe after World War II.
    • Its original members were Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
    • NATO has spread a web of partners, namely Egypt, Israel, Sweden, Austria, Switzerland and Finland.

    Expansion of NATO: Transforming Europe

    • The war in Ukraine has already changed the geopolitics of Europe and the world.
    • The admission of Finland and Sweden to NATO would bring about a transformation in the continent’s security map by giving NATO a contiguous long frontier in western Russia.
    • Finland and Russia share a 1,300-km border — and doubling it from the present 1,200 km, parts of it in northern Norway, Latvia and Estonia, and Poland and Lithuania.
    • In addition, Sweden’s island of Gotland in the middle of the Baltic Sea would give NATO a strategic advantage.
    • Furthermore, when Sweden and Finland join NATO, the Baltic Sea — Russia’s gateway to the North Sea and the Atlantic Ocean — would be ringed entirely by NATO members.

    Why Nordic countries are willing to join NATO?

    • Although the debate over joining NATO was ongoing in both countries for nearly three decades, Russia’s annexation of Crimea pushed both towards NATO’s “open door” policy.
    • Still, there was little political consensus in either country, especially in Sweden where the Social Democrats have long been against the idea.
    • However, February 24 changed everything the date on which Russia invaded Ukraine.

    A knee jerk reaction?

    • If Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was meant to deter NATO’s eastward expansion, the war has had the opposite effect.
    • If admitted, Sweden and Finland will become its 31st and 32nd members.

    Russian response

    • Back in March, Russia had evoked a threatening response to take retaliatory measures by stationing its nuclear and hypersonic weapons close to the Baltic Sea.
    • Russia denounced the problems with Finland and Sweden but the NATO’s expansion at the expense of these countries does not pose a direct threat to us.
    • But the expansion of military infrastructure into this territory will certainly provoke their response, warned Mr Putin.
    • Sweden had already said it would not allow NATO bases or nuclear weapons on its territory.

    Hurdles for Finland, Sweden

    • At the moment the main obstacle to their applications in Turkey, a member since 1952 and which has NATO’s second-largest army after the US.
    • Turkish president Erdogan has objected to their applications on the ground that the two countries had provided safe haven to the leaders of the Kurdish group PKK.
    • Many Kurdish and other exiles have found refuge in Sweden over the past decades.
    • PKK is an armed movement fighting for a separate Kurdistan, comprising Kurdish areas in Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria.
    • Neither of these countries have a clear, open attitude towards terrorist organisation.

    What could Turkey gain?

    • Turkey is expected to seek to negotiate a compromise deal to seek action on Kurdish groups.
    • Erdogan could also seek to use Sweden and Finland’s membership to wrest concessions from the United States and other allies.
    • Turkey wants to return to the US-led F-35 fighter jet program — a project it was kicked out of following its purchase of Russian S-400 missile defense systems.
    • Alternatively, Turkey is looking to purchase a new batch of F-16 fighter jets and upgrade its existing fleet.

    How does this affect Turkey’s image in the West?

    • Turkey is reinforcing an image that is blocking the alliance’s expansion for its own profit.
    • It also risks damaging the credit it had earned by supplying Ukraine with the Bayraktar TB2 armed drones that became an effective weapon against Russian forces.

    Is Turkey trying to appease Russia?

    • Turkey has built close relations with both Russia and Ukraine and has been trying to balance its ties with both.
    • It has refused to join sanctions against Russia — while supporting Ukraine with the drones that helped deny Russia air superiority.

     

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  • India’s Vulnerability to Drought

    A United Nations report ‘Drought in Numbers’ has revealed that many parts of India fall under the list of regions that are vulnerable to drought globally.

    What are Droughts?

    • Drought is a prolonged dry period in the natural climate cycle that can occur anywhere in the world.
    • It is a slow-onset disaster characterized by the lack of precipitation, resulting in a water shortage.

    Types of Droughts

    • Meteorological drought is defined usually on the basis of the degree of dryness (in comparison to some “normal” or average amount) and the duration of the dry period.
    • Agricultural drought should be able to account for the variable susceptibility of crops during different stages of crop development, from emergence to maturity.
    • Hydrological drought is associated with the effects of periods of precipitation (including snowfall) shortfalls on surface or subsurface water supply (i.e. streamflow, reservoir and lake levels, and groundwater).
    • Socioeconomic drought is associated with the supply and demand of some economic goods with elements of meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural drought.

    What is the Drought in Numbers report?

    • The Drought in Numbers report is a collection of data on the effects of droughts on our ecosystem and how they can be mitigated through efficient planning for the future.
    • The report also helps inform negotiations surrounding key decisions by the UNCCD’s 197 member parties at the 15th Conference of Parties (COP15), currently underway in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire.
    • Drought, land restoration, and related aspects such as land rights, gender equality and youth empowerment are among the top considerations at COP15.

    What is COP15?

    • The UN Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD) COP15 focuses on desertification, land degradation, and drought.
    • The theme for the conference is “Land. Life. Legacy: From scarcity to prosperity.”
    • The conference has brought together government representatives, private sector members, and civil society stakeholders to ensure that land continues to benefit present and future generations.

    What does the report entail?

    • The number and duration of droughts around the world has increased by an alarming 29% since 2000.
    • Globally, droughts in the same period caused economic losses of approximately $124 billion.
    • Drought conditions can force up to 216 million people to migrate by 2050.
    • Other factors at play along with drought could be water scarcity, declining crop productivity, rise in sea levels, and overpopulation.
    • The report also stated that India’s GDP reduced by 2 to 5% between 1998 and 2017 due to severe droughts in the country.

    Gendered impacts of drought

    • Research shows that women and girls in emerging and developing countries suffer more in terms of education levels, nutrition, health, sanitation, and safety as a result of droughts.
    • The burden of water collection also disproportionately falls on women (72%) and girls (9%).
    • The report notes that they may spend up to 40% of their caloric intake fetching water.

    What are the environmental aspects?

    • The largest increase in drought losses is projected in the Mediterranean and the Atlantic regions of Europe.
    • Australia’s megadrought in 2019-2020 contributed to “megafires” resulting in one of the most extensive losses of habitat for threatened species.
    • About three billion animals were killed or displaced in the Australian wildfires.
    • Around 12 million hectares of land are lost each year due to drought and desertification.

     

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