💥Mains Ready By December. Smash Mains & Smash PYQ Admissions Open
Talk to Mentor

Civilsdaily

Login

Type: IOCR

  • Outer space

    In opening new pathways for outer space cooperation in the recent US visit, PM Modi has positioned India to engage more productively with a rapidly evolving domain that is seeing more commerce and contestation.

    Outer Space Cooperation: A backgrounder

    • International cooperation is the new normal in space exploration, but it’s not a new concept.
    • One example of this cooperation is the International Space Station (ISS).
    • Another advance in international cooperation in the peaceful exploration of outer space came with the Artemis Accords.
    • Introduced in October 2020, the Artemis Accords establish a set of principles to guide space cooperation among countries participating in NASA’s Artemis program.

    There are five treaties that deal with issues related to outer space

    1. Moon Treaty: Non-appropriation of outer space by any one country, arms control, the freedom of exploration
    2. Liability Convention: Liability for damage caused by space objects
    3. Rescue Agreement: Safety and rescue of spacecraft and astronauts
    4. Outer Space Treaty: Prevention of harmful interference with space activities and the environment
    5. Registration Convention: Notification and registration of space activities, scientific investigation and exploitation of natural resources in outer space and the settlement of disputes

    Why does Outer Spaces matter?

    • Space situational awareness (SSA) involves monitoring the movement of all objects — natural (meteors) and man-made (satellites) — and tracking space weather.
    • Today, space is integral to our lives and disruption of space-based communications and earth observation will have serious consequences.

    India’s strategic interest in Outer Space

    Delhi’s new strategic interest in outer space is based on a recognition of two important trends.

    1. Centrality of emerging technologies in shaping the 21st-century global order
    2. Urgency of writing new rules for the road to peace and stability in outer space

    Why need US for this?

    • Technology cooperation has always been an important part of India-US relations.
    • But it has been a boutique discourse between the relevant agencies of the two governments.
    • The US has traditionally dominated outer space in the commercial domain.
    • As emerging technologies overhaul global economic and security structures, Delhi and Washington now have to widen the interface of technology.

    Why need a comprehensive outer space treaty?

    • Although human forays into space began in the middle of the 20th century, the intensity of that activity as well as its commercial and security implications have dramatically increased in recent decades.
    • Outer space has become a location for lucrative business as well as a site of military competition between states.
    • Until recently, outer space has been the sole preserve of states. But private entities are now major players in space commerce.
    • At the same time, as space becomes a critical factor in shaping the military balance of power on the earth, there is growing competition among states.

    Expanding QUAD in this term

    • Until now, the maritime domain has dominated the strategic cooperation bilaterally between Delhi and Washington as well as within the Quad.
    • The annual Malabar naval exercise, for example, began nearly three decades ago as a bilateral venture in 1992 and became a quadrilateral one in 2020 with the participation of Australia.

    Why does US need India in OST?

    • India, which has developed significant space capabilities over the decades, is a deeply invested party.
    • The US recognises that it can’t unilaterally define the space order anymore and is looking for partners.
    • International cooperation on space situational awareness is similar to the agreements on maritime domain awareness — that facilitate sharing of information on a range of ocean metrics.
    • India has been strengthening its maritime domain awareness through bilateral agreements as well as the Information Fusion Centre for the Indian Ocean Region (IFC-IOR) at Gurugram.
    • India has also taken tentative steps to cope with the unfolding military challenges in outer space.
    • It has also initiated space security dialogue with close partners like the US, Japan, and France.

    Making a first global move

    • When signed, the agreement with the US on SSA will be the first of its kind for India.
    • Washington has agreements with more than two dozen countries on SSA.
    • The US and Indian delegations have also discussed a US initiative called the Artemis Accords — that seek to develop norms for activity in the Moon and other planetary objects.

    Way forward

    • As commercial and military activity in outer space grows, the 20th-century agreements like Outer Space Treaty and the Moon Treaty (1979) need reinforcement and renewal.
    • The growing strategic salience of outer space demands substantive national policy action in India.
    • That can only be mandated by the highest political level. Back in 2015, PM Modi’s speech on the Indian Ocean focused national attention on maritime affairs.
    • India could do with a similar intervention on outer space today.

     

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Why Brazil always speaks first at the UN General Assembly

    Every year since the 10th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in 1995, Brazil has been the first to address the delegation, followed by the United States.

    About UNGA

    • The UNGA is one of the six principal organs of the United Nations (UN), serving as the main deliberative, policymaking, and representative organ of the UN.
    • Its powers, composition, functions, and procedures are set out in Chapter IV of the United Nations Charter.
    • It also establishes numerous subsidiary organs to advance or assist in its broad mandate.
    • The UNGA is the only UN organ wherein all member states have equal representation.

    Why does Brazil always get to speak first?

    • Brazil has been the first speaker at the UNGA annual general debate for over six decades now.
    • While some assume that the order is determined alphabetically, this is not the case.
    • This tradition dates back to the early years of the United Nations, following its formation soon after the end of World War II.
    • In those days, most countries were reluctant to be the first to address the chamber.
    • Brazil, at the time, was the only country that volunteered to speak first.

    So, why does the US go next?

    • In the list of speakers, the United States always goes second after Brazil as it is the host nation.
    • US President Joe Biden addressed the chamber on Tuesday, detailing his vision for a new era of diplomacy in his first-ever UNGA speech.

    How is the order of the remaining speakers determined?

    • After the US and Brazil, the order of speakers depends on a number of factors.
    • Generally the order is determined by the rank of the representative — heads of state, heads of government, crown princes, and foreign ministers would be amongst the initial speakers, followed by deputies and ambassadors.
    • Other criteria like geographic balance also play a role in determining the order.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Why the SAARC meeting was cancelled

    A meeting of foreign ministers from the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries, which was set to be held in New York has been cancelled.

    About SAARC

    • The South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) is the regional intergovernmental organization and geopolitical union of states in South Asia.
    • Its member states are Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, the Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
    • The SAARC comprises 3% of the world’s area, 21% of the world’s population and 4.21% (US$3.67 trillion) of the global economy, as of 2019.
    • The SAARC was founded in Dhaka on 8 December 1985. Its secretariat is based in Kathmandu, Nepal.
    • The organization promotes development of economic and regional integration. It launched the South Asian Free Trade Area in 2006.
    • The SAARC maintains permanent diplomatic relations at the United Nations as an observer and has developed links with multilateral entities, including the European Union.

    Formation of SAARC

    • After the USSR invaded Afghanistan in 1979, the security situation in South Asia rapidly deteriorated. In response, the foreign ministers of the initial seven members met in Colombo in 1981.
    • At the meeting, Bangladesh proposed forming a regional association that would meet to discuss matters such as security and trade.
    • While most of the countries present were in favour of the proposal, India and Pakistan were sceptical.
    • Eventually, both countries relented and in 1983 in Dhaka, joined the other five nations in signing the Declaration.

    What has SAARC done so far

    • Despite its lofty ambitions, SAARC has not become a regional association in the mould of the European Union or the African Union.
    • Its member states are plagued by internal divisions, most notably the conflict between India and Pakistan.
    • This in turn has hampered its ability to form comprehensive trade agreements or to meaningfully collaborate on areas such as security, energy and infrastructure.
    • The 18th and last SAARC summit was held in 2014 with Pakistan scheduled to host the 19th summit in 2016.
    • Many nations pulled out of the summit, citing fears of regional insecurity caused by Pakistan and a lack of a conducive environment for the talks.

    Limited success to count

    • Despite these setbacks, SAARC has achieved a modicum of success.
    • It has provided a platform for representatives from member countries to meet and discuss important issues, something that may have been challenging through bilateral discussions.
    • India and Pakistan for example would struggle to publicly justify a meeting when tensions between the two are particularly high, but representatives from both countries could come together under the banner of SAARC.
    • The bloc has also made some headway in signing agreements related to climate change, food security and combatting the Covid-19 crisis.
    • It has the potential to do far more but that is contingent upon cooperation on key issues between member states.

    Why was the recent meet cancelled?

    Ans. Pakistan’s insistence to include the Taliban

    • The member states are unable to agree upon the participation of Afghanistan, with Pakistan and India in particular at loggerheads over the issue.
    • After Pakistan objected to the participation of any official from the previous Ghani administration, SAARC members reportedly agreed to keep an “empty chair” as a symbolic representation of Afghanistan.
    • However, Islamabad later insisted that the Taliban be allowed to send its representative to the summit, a notion that all of the other member states rejected.
    • After no consensus could be formed, Nepal, the ‘host’ of the summit, officially cancelled the meeting.

    Why did countries object?

    Ans. Taliban is not a legitimate govt

    • The Taliban has not been recognised as the official government of Afghanistan by any SAARC countries barring Pakistan.
    • Several top Taliban leaders are blacklisted by the US and/or designated as international terrorists.
    • Senior leaders who are not blacklisted are known for supporting terrorist activities or affiliating with terrorist organisations.
    • Allowing Taliban to represent Afghanistan in SAARC would legitimise the group and serve as a formal recognition of their right to govern.
    • Apart from Pakistan, which has close ties to the Taliban, particularly its violent subgroup, the Haqqani Network, none of the other SAARC members recognise the Taliban.

    Why nations should not recognize the Taliban?

    • PM Modi has referred to the Taliban as a non-inclusive government, warning other nations to think before accepting the regime in Afghanistan.
    • SAARC members are deeply aware of the threat of spillover terrorism from Afghanistan under the Taliban regime, with Bangladesh in particular, concerned with the effect it may have on extremism.
    • Developments in Afghanistan could lead to uncontrolled flow of drugs, illegal weapons and human trafficking.

    Conclusion

    • With Pakistan headfast in its support for the Taliban and the rest of SAARC weary to acknowledge the group, any future summit is unlikely until the issue has been resolved.

  • The big deal behind the ruckus over AUKUS

    The announcement of the new Australia-U.K.-U.S. (AUKUS) trilateral security pact has naturally generated animated debate in strategic circles, before the QUAD summit.

    What is the AUKUS?

    • The first major initiative of AUKUS would be to deliver a nuclear-powered submarine fleet for Australia.
    • The nuclear-powered submarines will give Australia naval heft in the Pacific, where China has been particularly aggressive.
    • While the US and Britain have had the capability for decades, Australia has never had an n-sub.

    Motive: To counter China

    • China has nuclear-powered submarines, as well as submarines that can launch nuclear missiles.
    • The three signatories to the AUKUS deal have made it clear though, that their aim is not to arm the new subs with nuclear weapons.
    • China has been one of Australia’s biggest trading partners, but the relationship has soured over the last few years.
    • It was in consideration of Chinese sensibilities that Australia had pulled out of the Malabar Naval Exercise with the US, India, and Japan after participating in the 2007 edition (of which Singapore too, was part).
    • Australia came back to Malabar in 2020, which marked the first time in 13 years that the navies of the four Quad nations war-gamed together.

    Australia at the Centrestage

    • This is primarily because a nuclear-powered submarine gives a navy the capability to reach far out into the ocean and launch attacks.
    • A nuclear-powered submarine offers long distances dives, at a higher speed, without being detected gives a nation the ability to protect its interests far from its shores.
    • In the context of the AUKUS agreement, nuclear-powered submarines will give the Royal Australian Navy the capability to go into the South China Sea.
    • It conclusively puts to rest a long-standing domestic debate on whether it was time for Australia to assess China through the strategic lens, overcoming the purely mercantile considerations that tended to dominate its China policy.

    What makes nuclear submarines so important?

    • A nuclear-powered submarine is classified as an “SSN” under the US Navy hull classification system, wherein ‘SS’ is the symbol for submarine, and ‘N’ stands for nuclear.
    • A nuclear-powered submarine that can launch ballistic missiles is called “SSBN”.
    • Conventional diesel-engine submarines have batteries that keep and propel — though not very fast — the vessel underwater. The life of these batteries can vary from a few hours to a few days.
    • The newer Air-Independent Propulsion (AIP) submarines have additional fuel cells that allow them to stay underwater for longer and move faster than the conventional vessels.
    • However, the fuel cells are used only at strategic times, when the endurance to remain submerged is required.
    • Both conventional and AIP subs need to come to the surface to recharge their batteries using the diesel engine.
    • The diesel engine also propels the vessel on the surface. However, the fuel cells of AIP can only be charged at on-land stations, not while at sea.

    Why is France unhappy about Australia getting these submarines?

    • The deal has complicated the relations between France and Australia, and also France and the US.
    • France is upset as it has been kept out of the loop. But, with the core objective of pushing back against China’s aggression, all five countries — US, UK, Australia, France and India — are on the same track.
    • The deal between France and Australia had been marked by delays and other issues.
    • The first submarine was expected to be operational around 2034.

    Does India have nuclear-powered submarines?

    • Yes, India is among the six nations that have SSNs. The other five are the US, the UK, Russia, France and China.
    • India has had the capacity since it got the Soviet-built K-43 Charlie-class SSN in 1987.
    • Commissioned with the Red Fleet of the USSR in 1967, it was leased to the Indian Navy, and was rechristened INS Chakra. The submarine was decommissioned in 1991.

    Indo-Pacific is the core issue

    • France, which like the UK has historically been an Indo-Pacific power with territories and bases across the region.
    • It has participated in a multi-nation naval exercise in the Bay of Bengal with the four Quad nations.
    • There is no gainsaying the fact that rapid accretion in China’s economic and military capacities, but more particularly its belligerence, has led to a tectonic shift in regional security paradigms.
    • Several countries have been obliged to review their defence preparedness in response to China’s rising military power and its adverse impact on regional stability.

    A chance for the UK

    • The AUKUS pact is also an emphatic assertion of the relevance of the U.S.-Australia Security Treaty (ANZUS).
    • New Zealand, the outlier, walked away in 1984 from the treaty that ironically still bears its initials.
    • Its “nuclear-free” stance ran counter to the U.S. Navy’s non-disclosure policy in regard to nuclear weapons aboard visiting vessels.
    • Close ties notwithstanding, Australia’s future fleet of nuclear submarines will not be permitted access to New Zealand’s ports or waters, as averred by PM Jacinda Ardern.
    • AUKUS provides a fresh opportunity to the United Kingdom to reinsert itself more directly into the Indo-Pacific.
    • It is already a member of the Five Eyes (FVEY), an intelligence-sharing alliance built on Anglo-Saxon solidarity (Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the U.K., and the U.S.).

    AUKUS is not a substitute for the Quad

    • It does not erode the Quad’s significance as a platform for consultations and coordination on broader themes of maritime security, free and open trade, health care, critical technologies, supply chains and capacity-building.
    • The AUKUS submarine deal, on the other hand, is an undiluted example of strategic defence collaboration, and a game-changer at that.

    Chinese reception of AUKUS

    • China, expectedly, has strongly criticised AUKUS and the submarine deal as promoting instability and stoking an arms race.

    The exposed double standards

    • China has the world’s fastest-growing fleet of sub-surface combatants.
    • This includes the Type 093 Shang-class nuclear-powered attack submarine (SSN) and the Type 094 nuclear-powered Jin-class ballistic missile submarine (SSBN).
    • Its nuclear submarines are on the prowl in the Indo-Pacific.
    • Yet, China denies Australia and others the sovereign right to decide on their defence requirements.

    What’s in the box of AUKUS?

    Ans. Greater role for Australia

    • Australia’s proposed nuclear submarines will give quite a punch in terms of a stand-off capability.
    • The growing focus on anti-submarine warfare across a more expansive region is clearly altering calculations.
    • Australia’s nuclear submarines would help create a new balance of power in the Indo-Pacific, especially in tandem with the U.S. and the U.K.
    • It will now have a more meaningful naval deterrence of its own to protect its sovereign interests.
    • It is set to play a more robust role in ensuring peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific.

    Way forward

    • The setback ‘down under’ may spur France to focus afresh on partners such as India.
    • India must strike a balance between continuing imports and implementing the all-important Atmanirbhar Bharat in defence manufacturing.
    • France should take AUKUS as a business deal.
    • Its momentary reaction at the cancellation of the contract by Australia should soon subside.
    • As a major Indo-Pacific power, France is an important part of the regional security calculus.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Key Findings about the Religious Composition of India

    The religious composition of India’s population since Partition has remained largely stable according to a new study published by the Pew Research Centre, a non-profit based in Washington DC.

    About the report

    • The study, based on data sourced from India’s decennial census and the National Family Health Survey (NFHS), looked at the three main factors that are known to cause changes in the religious composition of populations — fertility rate, migration, and conversions.
    • Both Hindus and Muslims, the two largest religious groups, shown not only a marked decline but also a convergence in fertility rates.
    • In terms of absolute numbers, every major religion in India saw its numbers rise.

    Significance of the report

    • These findings, which come as a complement on religious tolerance and segregation in India.
    • It is significant in the context of two major issues that have occupied centre stage in recent times — the controversy over the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) and the National Register of Citizens (NRC).
    • This report also gives a strong message to those fundamentalists who perceive India as a living hell for minorities.

    Key findings

    (a) Fertility Rates are declining

    • With regard to fertility rates, the study found that Muslims, who had the highest fertility rate, also had the sharpest decline in fertility rates.
    • From 1992 to 2015, the total fertility rates of Muslims declined from 4.4 to 2.6, while that of Hindus declined from 3.3 to 2.1.
    • This indicates that the gaps in childbearing between India’s religious groups are much smaller than they used to be.
    • The average fertility rate in India today is 2.2, which is higher than the rates in economically advanced countries such as the U.S. (1.6), but much lower than what it was in 1992 (3.4) or 1951 (5.9).

    (b) Marked slowdown

    • Although growth rates have declined for all of India’s major religious groups, the slowdown has been more pronounced among religious minorities, who outpaced Hindus in earlier decades.
    • From 2001 to 2011, the difference in growth between Muslims (24.7%) and Indians overall (17.7%) was 7 percentage points.
    • India’s Christian population grew at the slowest pace of the three largest groups in the most recent census decade — gaining 15.7% between 2001 and 2011, a far lower growth rate than the one recorded in the decade following Partition (29.0%).

    (c) ‘No’ Religions group

    • Interestingly, out of India’s total population of 1,200 million, about 8 million did not belong to any of the six major religious groups.
    • Within this category, mostly comprising adivasi people, the largest grouping was of Sarnas (nearly 5 million adherents), followed by Gond (1 million) and Sari Dharma (5,10,000).

    (d) Migration

    • The study says that since the 1950s, migration has had only a modest impact on India’s religious composition.
    • More than 99% of people who live in India were also born in India, and migrants leaving India outnumber immigrants three-to-one, with “Muslims more likely than Hindus to leave India”, while “immigrants into India from Muslim-majority counties are disproportionately Hindu.”

    (e) Religious conversions

    • Religious conversion has also had a negligible impact on India’s overall composition, with 98% of Indian adults still identifying with the religion in which they were raised.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • India scores 46th rank in the Global Innovation Index 2021

    India has climbed 2 spots and has been ranked 46th by the World Intellectual Property Organization in the Global Innovation Index 2021 rankings.

    Global Innovation Index

    • The Global Innovation Index (GII) is an annual ranking of countries by their capacity for, and success in, innovation.
    • It is published by Cornell University, INSEAD, and the World Intellectual Property Organization, in partnership with other organizations and institutions.
    • It is based on both subjective and objective data derived from several sources, including the International Telecommunication Union, the World Bank and the World Economic Forum.
    • The index was started in 2007 by INSEAD and World Business, a British magazine. It was created by Prof. Soumitra Dutta.

    Components of GII

    • The GII is computed by taking a simple average of the scores in two sub-indices, the Innovation Input Index and Innovation Output Index, which are composed of five and two pillars respectively.

    India’s performance

    • India has been on a rising trajectory, over the past several years in the Global Innovation Index (GII), from a rank of 81 in 2015 to 46 in 2021.
    • India attributed its improved performance due to the pivotal role played by the Department of Atomic Energy, the Department of Science and Technology, the Department of Biotechnology and the Department of Space.

    Global scenario

    • Switzerland topped the league table, followed by Sweden, the US and the UK.
    • Among Asian economies, South Korea jumped to the fifth position, up from 10 last year.
    • China was in the 12th position.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • What is Agreement on Agriculture (AoA)?

    The Agreement on Agriculture at the WTO is riddled with deep imbalances, which favour the developed countries and have tilted the rules against many developing countries, a Union Minister has said.

    Agreement on Agriculture

    • The AoA is an international treaty of the World Trade Organization.
    • It was negotiated during the Uruguay Round of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade, and entered into force with the establishment of the WTO on January 1, 1995.

    Three pillars of AoA

    The Agreement on Agriculture consists of three pillars—domestic support, market access, and export subsidies.

    (1) Domestic support

    • AoA divides domestic support into two categories: trade-distorting and non-trade-distorting (or minimally trade-distorting).
    • It the classification of subsidies by “boxes” depending on consequences of production and trade:
    1. Amber (most directly linked to production levels)
    2. Blue (production-limiting programs that still distort trade)
    3. Green (minimal distortion)

    (2) Market access

    • Market access refers to the reduction of tariff (or non-tariff) barriers to trade by WTO members.
    • The 1995 AoA consists of tariff reductions of:
    1. 36% average reduction – developed countries – with a minimum of 15% per-tariff line reduction in next six years.
    2. 24% average reduction – developing countries – with a minimum of 10% per-tariff line reduction in next ten years.
    • Least developed countries (LDCs) were exempt from tariff reductions, but they either had to convert non-tariff barriers to tariffs—a process called tariffication—or “bind” their tariffs, creating a ceiling that could not be increased in future.

    (3) Export subsidies

    • The AoA required developed countries to reduce export subsidies by at least 36% (by value) or by 21% (by volume) over six years.
    • For developing countries, the agreement required cuts were 24% (by value) and 14% (by volume) over ten years.

    Criticism of AoA

    • AoA has been criticized for reducing tariff protections for small farmers, a key source of income in developing countries, while simultaneously allowing rich countries to continue subsidizing agriculture at home.
    • In 2017 India and China jointly submitted a proposal to the WTO calling for the elimination – by developed countries – of the most trade-distorting form of farm subsidies,
    • They are known in WTO parlance as Aggregate Measurement of Support (AMS) or ‘Amber Box’ support as a prerequisite for consideration of other reforms in domestic support negotiations.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • [pib] Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)

    The Prime Minister has participated virtually in the Joint SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organization)-CSTO Outreach Session on Afghanistan.

    What is CSTO?

    • The CSTO is a Russia-led military alliance of seven former Soviet states that was created in 2002.
    • Current CSTO members are Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, the Russian Federation and Tajikistan. Afghanistan and Serbia hold observer status in the CSTO.
    • Its purpose is to ensure the collective defence of any member that faces external aggression.
    • It has been described by political scientists as the Eurasian counterpart of NATO, which has 29 member states, while the CSTO has just six.

    Outlined functions of CSTO

    • CSTO supports arms sales and manufacturing as well as military training and exercises, making the CSTO the most important multilateral defence organization in the former Soviet Union.
    • Beyond mutual defence, the CSTO also coordinates efforts in fighting the illegal circulation of weapons among member states and has developed law enforcement training for its members in pursuit of these aims.

    What does CSTO membership provide?

    • While CSTO membership means that member states are barred from joining other military alliances, limiting, for example, their relationship with NATO.
    • Its members receive discounts, subsidies, and other incentives to buy Russian arms, facilitating military cooperation.
    • Most importantly, membership presumes certain key security assurances – the most significant of which is deterring military aggression by third countries.
    • In the CSTO, aggression against one signatory is perceived as aggression against all.
    • It however remains unclear whether this feature works in practice.

    Back2Basics: NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization)

    • NATO was found in the aftermath of the Second World War.
    • Its purpose was to secure peace in Europe, to promote cooperation among its members and to guard their freedom – all of this in the context of countering the threat posed at the time by the Soviet Union.
    • It is a military alliance established by the North Atlantic Treaty (also called the Washington Treaty) of April 4, 1949.
    • It sought to create a counterweight to Soviet armies stationed in Central and Eastern Europe after World War II.
    • Its original members were Belgium, Canada, Denmark, France, Iceland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
    • NATO has spread a web of partners, namely Egypt, Israel, Sweden, Austria, Switzerland and Finland.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • AUKUS Partnership for Indo-Pacific

    The Biden administration has announced a new trilateral security partnership for the Indo-Pacific, between Australia, the U.K., and the U.S. (AUKUS).

    What is AUKUS?

    • AUKUS, as the partnership is being called, will strive over the next 18 months to equip Australia with nuclear propulsion technology.
    • As part of this, Australia will acquire nuclear-powered submarines with help from the UK and the US.
    • It will also involve a new architecture of meetings and engagements between the three countries, as well as cooperation across emerging technologies (applied AI, quantum technologies and undersea capabilities).
    • Australia’s nuclear-powered submarines, when they deploy, will be armed with conventional weapons only and not nuclear weapons.

    Why such an alliance?

    • Tensions have been high between Australia and an increasingly assertive China, its largest trade partner.
    • Australia banned Chinese telecom giant Huawei in 2108 and its PM called for an investigation into the origins of COVID-19 last year.
    • China retaliated by imposing tariffs on or capping Australian exports.

    Not to substitute Quad or others

    • This alliance does not and will not supersede or outrank existing arrangements in the Indo-Pacific region such as the Quad, which the US and Australia form with India and Japan, and ASEAN.
    • AUKUS will complement these groups and others.

    Significance

    • There has been only one other time that the US has shared as “extremely sensitive” submarine propulsion technology — more than 60 years ago, back in 1958, with Great Britain.
    • The US is working to move past the 20-year war in Afghanistan and the chaotic U.S. exit from Kabul.
    • The Biden Administration has put countering China at the center of his economic and national security efforts, describing it as the biggest challenge of this era.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

  • Can the SCO be the regional body that stabilizes Afghanistan?

    On the face of it, the summit meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) this week in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, is well placed to lead the stabilization of Afghanistan after the American retreat.

    About SCO

    • After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the then security and economic architecture in the Eurasian region dissolved and new structures had to come up.
    • The original Shanghai Five were China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Tajikistan.
    • The SCO was formed in 2001, with Uzbekistan included. It expanded in 2017 to include India and Pakistan.
    • Since its formation, the SCO has focused on regional non-traditional security, with counter-terrorism as a priority.
    • The fight against the “three evils” of terrorism, separatism and extremism has become its mantra. Today, areas of cooperation include themes such as economics and culture.

    India’s and the SCO

    • India and Pakistan both were observer countries.
    • While Central Asian countries and China were not in favor of expansion initially, the main supporter — of India’s entry in particular — was Russia.
    • A widely held view is that Russia’s growing unease about an increasingly powerful China prompted it to push for its expansion.
    • From 2009 onwards, Russia officially supported India’s ambition to join the SCO. China then asked for its all-weather friend Pakistan’s entry.

    Afghanistan and SCO

    • Afghanistan has been engaged with the SCO for over 15 years.
    • In 2012, Afghanistan became an observer in the SCO when then-Afghan president Hamid Karzai visited China.
    • In 2015, Kabul applied for full membership in the group.
    • Kabul sought to be a member of the SCO as it believes that it is a natural candidate.
    • Geographically, Afghanistan is a part of the SCO region.

    Limited (or No) progress made by SCO

    • For all the political hype, the SCO has not deepened regionalism in Central Asia.
    • Two decades after its formation — it was set up just weeks before the 9/11 attacks on New York and Washington — the institutional promise of the SCO remains just that — a promise.
    • Seen from the subcontinent, the SCO certainly looks better than the South Asian Association of Regional Cooperation (SAARC).
    • That India and Pakistan, whose differences have prevented even regular meetings of SAARC, are actively participating in the SCO, would point to its attractiveness.
    • But then SAARC is such a low bar.

    Opportunities for role-play in Afghanistan

    The crisis in Afghanistan presents a major opportunity for the SCO to realize its regional ambitions.

    • Involvement of regional superpowers: The SCO’s importance for Afghanistan seems self-evident when you look at its sponsors and members. Its founding leaders are the two great powers of the east — Russia and China.
    • Neighborhood are members: Its other initial members were Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Kazakhstan to the north and northeast of Afghanistan.
    • Observers vested interest: Besides Afghanistan, Iran, Belarus and Mongolia are observers. Iran is said to be on track for full membership.
    • Many dialogue partners: The SCO has a number of “dialogue partners”. They include Armenia and Azerbaijan from the neighboring Caucasus region and Turkey a step further to the West. Nepal and Sri Lanka from the subcontinent and Cambodia from southeast Asia are also dialogue partners.

    Issues with SCO

    • China centrism: For an organization that bears the name of Shanghai, but is focused on Central Asia, its associates look disparate.
    • Lack of coherence: The Central Asian members of the SCO have quarrels of their own, and have struggled to develop collective approaches to their common regional security challenges.
    • Dint go beyond dialogues: As it broadened its membership, the SCO has, unsurprisingly, struggled to deepen institutional cooperation.
    • Not comprehensive: There is also one important country missing in the mix. It is Turkmenistan, which shares an 800 km border with Afghanistan and a 1,150 km border with Iran.
    • Neutrality of members: The organizing principle of Turkmenistan rulers is absolute “neutrality” — think of it as an extreme form of “non-alignment”. It refuses to join any regional institution, political or military.
    • Individual interests: Russia’s effort to build a regional institution in its Central Asian periphery ran parallel to its plans for the so-called “strategic triangle” with China and India. India and Pakistan, needless to say, are poles apart on the Taliban.

    No common interest in Afghan Peace

    • The US military retreat from Afghanistan has brought cheer to both Moscow and Beijing, although publicly they criticize President Joe Biden’s hasty retreat.
    • The US retreat might weaken the glue that binds Moscow and Beijing in Central Asia or tightens it.
    • Although Russia and China are closer to each other than ever before, their interests are not entirely the same in Central Asia.

    Russian alternatives to SCO

    (1) Central Security Treaty Organisation

    • While military confidence-building measures have grown under the SCO banner, Russia had its own security organisation for the region, called the Central Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO).
    • Three of the SCO members — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan — along with Armenia and Belarus are members of the CSTO.
    • Russia sees itself as the sole protector of the former Soviet Republics and may not be ready to share that role with China — “yes” to coordination, but “no” to a Sino-Russian security dyarchy.

    (2) Eurasian Economic Union

    • Moscow also appears reluctant to back Chinese proposals to promote trade integration under the SCO banner; it prefers the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) under its own leadership.
    • China is not a member of either CSTO or EAEU. This is one reason for the weakness of SCO regionalism.

    Other deterrents

    (1) Affinity with Taliban

    • China has openly admitted to cooperating with the Taliban by restoring all formal diplomatic ties. It is the first such country to acknowledge the Taliban.
    • Turkmenistan too, which is not part of SCO, has been quite open to engaging the Taliban in sync with its principles of neutrality.
    • Some Russian analysts see Turkmenistan as the potential weak link in the defense against the Taliban’s potential threats to the region.
    • Uzbekistan seems open to a cautious engagement with the Taliban.

    (2) Iranian aspirations for unwarranted interference (just like Turkey does regarding Kashmir)

    • Iran, which has ethnic and linguistic links with the Persian-speaking Tajiks, appears equally worried about the Taliban’s policies towards minorities.
    • As Moscow and Beijing, Tehran was happy to see the Americans leave in humiliation and appeared hopeful of a positive engagement with the Taliban.
    • Those hopes may have been suspended for now, if not discarded.

    What can the SCO do now?

    • The Afghanistan debacle presents an opportunity for the SCO to play a constructive role in meeting the region’s burgeoning security challenge.
    • Providing humanitarian relief, tending to refugees, facilitating an inclusive dialogue and national reconciliation constitute immediate and long-term goals in which the organization can fill a role.
    • The SCO can also pressure the Taliban to share power with other domestic actors and refrain from providing sanctuary to foreign terror organizations (through foreign funds from Saudi*).
    • It can suspend Afghanistan’s observer status, curtail border traffic or withhold recognition, investments, and aid, should Kabul be found wanting.

    Way forward

    • While the SCO is not an impressive regional institution, it remains an important diplomatic forum.
    • India has sought to make full use of the SCO’s diplomatic possibilities without any illusions about its effectiveness.
    • At the SCO summit this week, PM Modi would remind other leaders of the “three evils” that the SCO set out to defeat — terrorism, extremism, and separatism.
    • Few would disagree that the Taliban embodied all the three sins in the past. Today, the Taliban and its mentor Pakistan say the sinner wants to become a saint.
    • India must focus on finding common ground with those members of the SCO who do share India’s concerns about Afghanistan.

    Conclusion

    • Given this divergence, it is unlikely that the SCO can come up with a “regional solution” for the Afghan crisis.
    • The only real Afghan convergence today is between Pakistan and China.
    • Expect them to try and nudge the SCO towards a positive engagement with the Taliban.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)