💥UPSC 2027,2028 Mentorship (May Batch) + Access XFactor Notes & Microthemes PDF
Talk to mentor

Civilsdaily

Login

Type: op-ed snap

  • Important Judgements In News

    A new jurisprudence for political prisoners

    op-ed snap | Polity | Mains Paper 2: Executive & Judiciary

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Not much

    Mains level: Paper 2- Issue of misuse of UAPA

    Context

    In Thwaha Fasal vs Union of India, the Court has acted in its introspective jurisdiction and deconstructed the provisions of the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) with a great sense of legal realism. This paves the way for a formidable judicial authority against blatant misuse of this law.

    Background of the case

    • In this case from Kerala, there are three accused.
    • The police registered the case and later the investigation was handed over to the National Investigation Agency (NIA).
    • During the investigation, some materials containing radical literature were found, which included a book on caste issues in India and a translation of the dissent notes written by Rosa Luxemburg to Lenin.
    • Thus, the provisions of the UAPA were invoked.
    • After initial rejection of the pleas, the trial judge granted bail to both the accused in September 2020.
    • The Supreme Court was emphatic and liberal when it said that mere association with a terrorist organisation is not sufficient to attract the offences alleged.
    • Unless and until the association and the support were “with intention of furthering the activities of a terrorist organisation”, offence under Section 38 or Section 39 is not made out, said the Court.

    Issues with UAPA

    • Section 43D(5) of the UAPA says that for many of the offences under the Act, bail should not be granted, if “on perusal of the case diary or the report (of the investigation), there are reasonable grounds for believing that the accusation is prima facie true”.
    • Thus, the Act prompts the Court to consider the version of the prosecution alone while deciding the question of bail.
    • Unlike the Criminal Procedure Code, the UAPA, by virtue of the proviso to Section 43D(2), permits keeping a person in prison for up to 180 days, without even filing a charge sheet.
    • Prevents examination of the facts: The statute prevents a comprehensive examination of the facts of the case on the one hand, and prolongs the trial indefinitely by keeping the accused in prison on the other.
    • Instead of presumption of innocence, the UAPA holds presumption of guilt of the accused.
    • In Zahoor Ahmad Shah Watali, the Court said that by virtue of Section 43D(5) of UAPA, the burden is on the accused to show that the prosecution case is not prima facie true.
    • The proposition in Zahoor Ahmad Shah Watali is that the bail court should not even investigate deeply into the materials and evidence and should consider the bail plea, primarily based on the nature of allegations, for, according to the Court, Section 43D(5) prohibits a thorough and deeper examination.
    • The top court has now altered this terrible legal landscape.

    Key takeaways from the judgement

    • The text of the laws sometimes poses immense challenge to the courts by limiting the space for judicial discretion and adjudication.
    • The courts usually adopt two mutually contradictory methods in dealing with such tough provisions.
    • One is to read and apply the provision literally and mechanically which has the effect of curtailing the individual freedom as intended by the makers of the law.
    • In contrast to this approach, there could be a constitutional reading of the statute, which perceives the issues in a human rights angle and tries to mitigate the rigour of the content of the law.

    Conclusion

    The judgment should be invoked to release other political prisoners in the country who have been denied bail either due to the harshness of the law or due to the follies in understanding the law or both.

    Get an IAS/IPS ranker as your 1: 1 personal mentor

  • We need greater global cooperation

    op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Not much

    Mains level: Paper 2- Greater global cooperation

    Context

    Our thinking about the international system is focussed on a new era of great power competition. An assertive China is seeking to refashion the international order and exercise greater regional hegemony.

    Refashioning the international order

    • Recently, Secretary Antony Blinken outlined the US approach to China: “Competitive when it should be, collaborative when it can be, and adversarial when it must be.”
    • This pretty much describes the approach of every country in the world to this geopolitical moment.
    • The big question is whether the competitive and adversarial dynamics are now so deep that the space for “collaboration” is diminishing fast.
    • There is now bipartisan consensus in the US that China needs to be contained; just as China is convinced that the US will not only not tolerate China’s further rise.

    Great power competition between the US and China

    • Two dynamics were supposed to counteract the risks of great power competition.
    • Global economic interdependence: The first was global economic interdependence.
    • Global trade has rebounded to its pre-pandemic levels.
    • The logic of interdependence is now under severe ideological stress.
    • Interdependence has not led to greater convergence on political values or a more open global political order.
    • Common challenges fostering global cooperation: The second dynamic counteracting competition was the idea that common challenges like climate change, the pandemic and the risks posed by technology will foster greater global cooperation.
    •  All the global crises that should have been occasions for global cooperation have become the sites for intensifying global competition.

    Climate and global health: Indicator of lack of global cooperation

    • It is hard to convince anyone that most countries of the world were willing to treat the pandemic as a global public health crisis.
    • The shift in the climate change discourse is about intensifying technological competition and maintaining national economic supremacy, rather than solving a global problem.
    •  It is not entirely clear that all the innovations induced by this competitive dynamic will, in fact, limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.
    • It also leaves the question of a modicum of justice in the international order entirely unresolved.
    • We have also learnt over the last couple of decades that the international system, and all global public goods, including security, can be made extremely vulnerable even by small groups carrying a sense of grievance.
    • So, the distribution of technology, finance, and developmental space will matter.
    • India, in the context of what other countries are doing, takes a very well-judged stance at the international level.
    • But it is difficult not to wonder whether a country that lets its citizens breathe the foulest air, and cannot get its head around a solvable problem of stubble burning, can project seriousness.
    • So, climate and global public health, rather than acting as a spur to global cooperation are going to be symptoms of a deep pathology.

    Global risks and declining multilateral institutions

    • Areas where global risks are increasing include-Cyber threats, the possible risks of unregulated technology, whether in artificial intelligence or biological research, competition in space, a renewed competition in nuclear weapons and an intensifying arms race.
    •  In not a single one of these areas is there a serious prospect of any country thinking outside of an adversarial nationalist frame.
    • The old multilateral system was undergirded by, and partially an instrument for, US power.
    • The term multilateral has also been deeply damaged by a cynical use, where it simply refers to a group of countries rather than a single or a couple of countries acting together.
    • It is high time the term be used only in a context where there is agreement on global rules or an architecture to genuinely solve a global public goods problem.
    • These may still reflect power differentials, but at least they are oriented to problem-solving at a global level.
    • In this sense, one would be hard-pressed to find any genuinely multilateral institutions left.

    Consider the question “What are the challenge facing global order in the present context? Suggest the measures to preserve the global order aimed towards greater global cooperation.”

    Conclusion

    The real choice for the world is not just navigating between China and the United States. It is fundamentally between an orientation that is committed to global problem-solving rather than just preserving national supremacy.

    Get an IAS/IPS ranker as your 1: 1 personal mentor

  • Policy Wise: India’s Power Sector

    India’s power discoms are at a critical point

    op-ed snap | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Infrastructure: Energy, Ports, Roads, Airports, Railways Etc.

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: SECI

    Mains level: Paper 3- Challenges facing discoms

    Context

    The power sector in India is at an inflection point. Three developments are triggering a shift across the power chain, generation and distribution in particular, and are in the process deepening existing faultlines, and exacerbating the distress.

    Three changes driving the shift in power sector

    1) Central government’s approach towards distribution segment

    • Till recently, the Centre had preferred to incentivise states, nudging them to address the issue that lies at the heart of the power sector’s woes — turning around the operational performance and financial position.
    • However, despite multiple attempts, not much has changed.
    • But over the past few months, the Centre appears to have changed tack.
    • The Centre no longer appears content to simply nudge states into acting.
    • This change in stance is evident from enforcing the tripartite agreement to recover the dues owed to power producers like NTPC by discoms in Jharkhand, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka to now regulating coal supplies to states where power generating companies have been delaying payments.

    2) Covid impact on government finances and ability to support discoms

    • Notwithstanding buoyant tax revenues this year, Covid has wreaked havoc on government finances.
    • The general government debt stands at 90 per cent of GDP.
    • Add to this demands for greater welfare spending, uncertainty over state government finances once the five year GST compensation period ends next year, and the limits to which states can continue to support discoms will increasingly be tested.
    • To what extent accounting jugglery can be used once again to clean up discom debt is debatable.
    • After all, even the liquidity facility arranged by the Centre to help discoms pay off their obligations will have to be paid back.

    3) Loss of monopoly and shift towards renwable

    • Until now, consumers had little recourse to alternate sources of supply.
    • Consequently, discoms, which are essentially geographical monopolies, were able to charge higher tariffs from commercial and industrial consumers to cross-subsidise agricultural and low-income households.
    • But the situation appears to be changing.
    • Migration of high tariff paying consumers through open access and investments in captive power plants is gaining traction, driven in large part by the emergence of solar as an alternative at seemingly competitive tariffs.
    • This reduced reliance of high tariff paying consumers on discoms will only exacerbate their already precarious financial position.
    • The pace at which this transition is occurring will only accelerate in the coming years.
    • On the supply side, at the global and the national level, there is a push towards cleaner fuel, solar in particular.
    • Flowing from this — though with debatable relevance given the current levels of per capita emissions — is the domestic policy thrust towards renewables.
    • Solar, in particular, benefits from both explicit and implicit subsidies — land at concessional rate, exemption from interstate transmission charges, discounted wheeling charges, cross-subsidies for open access, SECI taking on counterparty risk, and others.
    • It also enjoys “Must Run” status.
    • On the demand side, at current tariffs, solar is emerging as an attractive alternative for the high tariff paying commercial and industrial consumers.
    • On their part, discoms are trying to salvage a losing situation.
    • To stem the flow of high paying customers, some have begun levying an additional surcharge on whoever opts for open access to lower the cost differential.
    • Others are shifting from net metering to gross metering — essentially charging consumers higher tariffs — above particular consumption levels.

    Conclusion

    Continuously subsidising discoms for their AT&C losses (operational inefficiencies), and for not supplying power at commensurate tariffs to low-income households and agricultural customers (for political considerations) will become fiscally untenable.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

    Get an IAS/IPS ranker as your 1: 1 personal mentor

  • Climate Change Impact on India and World – International Reports, Key Observations, etc.

    The right time for India to have its own climate law

    op-ed snap | Enviro & Biodiversity | Mains Paper 3: Conservation, Environmental Pollution & Degradation, Eia

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: COP26

    Mains level: Paper 3- India needs climate laws

    Context

    The United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP26, from October 31 to November 12, 2021), at Glasgow, Scotland is important as it will call for practical implementation of the 2015 Paris Accord, setting the rules for the Accord.

    Indian proposals

    • Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced, on November 1 at Glasgow, a ‘Panchamrit solution’ which aims at reducing fossil fuel dependence and carbon intensity.
    • This also includes ramping up India’s renewable energy share to 50% by 2030.
    • Union Minister of Environment, Forest and Climate Change Bhupender Yadav has reasserted the call for the promised $100 billion a year as support (from the developed world to the developing world).
    • But as we consider new energy pathways, we must also consider the question of climate hazard, nature-based solutions and national accountability.
    • This is the right time for India to mull setting up a climate law while staying true to its goals of climate justice, carbon space and environmental protection.

    Why India needs climate law

    • There are a few reasons for this.
    • Existing laws not adequate: Our existing laws are not adequate to deal with climate change.
    • We have for example the Environment (Protection) Act (EPA), 1986, the Air (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act, 1981 and Water (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act, 1974.
    • Yet, climate is not exactly water or air.
    • The Environment (Protection) Act is grossly inadequate to deal with violations on climate. Clause 24 of the Act, “Effect of Other Laws”, states that if an offence is committed under the EPA or any other law, the person will be punished under the other law (for example, Code of Criminal Procedure).
    • This makes the EPA subordinate to every other law. 
    • There is a need to integrate climate action: Integration includes adaptation and mitigation — and monitoring progress.
    • Comprehensive climate action is not just technological such as changing energy sources or carbon intensity, but also nature-based such as emphasising restoration of ecosystems.
    • India’s situation is unique: Climate action cannot come by furthering sharpening divides or exacerbating poverty, and this includes our stated renewable energy goals.
    • The 500 Gigawatt by 2030 goal for renewable can put critically endangered grassland and desert birds such as the Great Indian Bustard at risk, as they die on collision with wires in the desert.

    Suggestions on climate law

    • A climate law could consider two aspects.
    • Commission on climate change: Creating an institution that monitors action plans for climate change.
    • A ‘Commission on Climate Change’ could be set up, with the power and the authority to issue directions, and oversee implementation of plans and programmes on climate.
    • The Commission could have quasi-judicial powers with powers of a civil court to ensure that its directions are followed in letter and spirit.
    • System of liability and accountability: We need a system of liability and accountability at short-, medium- and long-term levels as we face hazards.
    • This also means having a legally enforceable National Climate Change Plan that goes beyond just policy guidelines.
    • A Climate Commission could ideally prevent gross negligence in fragile areas and fix accountability if it arises.

    Conclusion

    We have an urgent moral imperative to tackle climate change and reduce its worst impacts. But we also should Indianise the process by bringing in a just and effective law — with guts, a spine, a heart, and, most importantly, teeth.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

    Get an IAS/IPS ranker as your 1: 1 personal mentor

  • WTO and India

    Charting a trade route after the MC12

    op-ed snap | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Indian Economy

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Marrakesh Agreement

    Mains level: Paper 3- MC12

    Context

    The World Trade Organization (WTO)’s 12th Ministerial Conference (MC12) is being convened in Geneva, Switzerland at the end of this month.

    Ministerial Conferences

    • The topmost decision-making body of the WTO is the Ministerial Conference, which usually meets every two years. It brings together all members of the WTO, all of which are countries or customs unions.
    • The Ministerial Conference can take decisions on all matters under any of the multilateral trade agreements

    The task ahead for MC12

    • Recent WTO estimates show that global trade volumes could expand by almost 11% in 2021, and by nearly 5% in 2022, and could stabilise at a level higher than the pre-COVID-19 trend.
    • The MC12 needs to consider how in these good times for trade, the economically weaker countries “can secure a share in the growth in international trade commensurate with the needs of their economic development’, an objective that is mandated by the Marrakesh Agreement Establishing the World Trade Organization.
    • Some of the areas are currently witnessing intense negotiations, these include adoption of WTO rules on electronic commerce, investment facilitation, and fisheries subsidies.

    Following issues will form the basis of MC12 discussions

    1) IPR waiver for Covid-19 related technologies

    • Pharmaceutical companies have used monopoly rights granted by their IPRs to deny developing countries access to technologies and know-how, thus undermining the possibility of production of vaccines in these countries.
    • To remedy this situation, India and South Africa had tabled a proposal in the WTO in October 2020, for waiving enforcement of several forms of IPRs on “health products and technologies including diagnostics, therapeutics, vaccines, medical devices.
    •  This proposal, supported by nearly two-thirds of the organisation’s membership, was opposed by the developed countries batting for their corporates.
    • The unfortunate reality of the current discussions is that an outcome supporting affordable access to COVID-19 vaccines and medicines looks distant.

    2) Fisheries subsidies

    • Discussions on fisheries subsidies have been hanging fire for a long time, there is considerable push for an early conclusion of an agreement to rein in these subsidies.
    • The current drafts on this issue do not provide the wherewithal to rein in large-scale commercial fishing.
    • Large scale commercial fishing is depleting fish stocks the world over, and at the same time, are threatening the livelihoods of small fishermen in countries such as India.

    3) E-commerce

    • Discussions on e-commerce are being held in the WTO since 1998, wherein WTO members agreed to “continue their practice of not imposing customs duties on electronic transmissions”.
    • The more substantive outcome was the decision to “establish a comprehensive work programme” taking into “account the economic, financial, and development needs of developing countries”.
    • However, in 2021, a key focus of the 1998 e-commerce work programme, namely “development needs of developing countries”, is entirely missing from the text document that is the basis for the current negotiations.
    • On the negotiating table are issues relating to the liberalisation of the goods and services trade, and of course guarantee for free flow of data across international boundaries, all aimed at facilitating expansion of businesses of e-commerce firms.
    • In fact, the decision on a moratorium on the imposition of import duties agreed to in 1998 has become the basis for a push towards comprehensive trade liberalisation — a perfectly logical way forward, given that the sole objective of the negotiations on e-commerce is to facilitate expansion of e-commerce firms.

    4) Investment facilitation

    • Inclusion of substantive provisions on investment in the WTO has been one of the more divisive issues.
    • In 2001, the Doha Ministerial Declaration had included a work programme on investment, but developing countries were opposed to its continuation because the discussions were geared to expanding the rights of foreign investors through a multilateral agreement on investment.
    • An investment facilitation has reintroduced the old agenda of concluding such an investment agreement.

    Issues with the negotiations

    • The negotiations on e-commerce and investment facilitation are being conducted not by a mandate given by the entire membership of the WTO in a transparent manner.
    • Instead, these negotiations owe their origins to the so-called “Joint Statement Initiatives” (JSI) in which a section of the membership has developed the agenda with a view to producing agreements in the WTO.
    •  This entire process is “detrimental to the very existence of a rule-based multilateral trading system under the WTO”, as India and South Africa have forcefully argued in a submission against the JSIs early this year.

    Conclusion

    Current favourable tidings provide an ideal setting for the Trade Ministers from the WTO member-states to revisit trade rules and to agree on a work programme for the organisation, which can help maintain the momentum in trade growth.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

    Get an IAS/IPS ranker as your 1: 1 personal mentor

  • Government Budgets

    Ensuring that policy outcome matches the intent

    op-ed snap | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Government Budgeting

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Not much

    Mains level: Paper 3- Dealing with the structural limitations of policy

    Context

    Policy differences between parties and coalitions arouse heated debates in legislatures and at political rallies. But relatively scant attention is paid to whether the stated policy or enacted law — of any persuasion — delivered the intended outcomes/results.

    Issues with annual budget modalities

    • There are limitations in the structural design of the Union and the state governments of India, which either cause or enable inefficient translation of policy intent to semi-realised outcomes.
    • Nowhere is this more obvious than in the annual budget modalities followed by the Union and state governments.
    • The final accounts (FA) for a financial year are generally presented to the legislative body between 18 and 24 months after that year’s budget is approved, most often as a minor artefact along with the main attraction of the budget for the upcoming year and the minor attraction of the Revised Estimate (RE) for the year in progress.
    • In effect, a small fraction of the attention paid to intent (budget) is paid to the outcome (FA) which is only known many months after the year is over.
    • Governments in India adhere to the archaic cash accounting as opposed to accrual accounting, which is the norm for most companies and governments which introduces some strange incentives and behaviours, especially towards the end of the year.
    • As a result, even the final account is not what it seems, with the possibility that significant funds which have been presented to the legislature as spent are still held in off-balance-sheet accounts not visible to the government’s finance department.

    Way forward: Lessons from Tamil Nadu government

    • This structural limitation was the basis for the initiative to identify and retrieve unutilised funds that the Tamil Nadu government.
    • New procedures and systems will ensure that such moving/parking of funds (especially as the year ends) cannot happen outside of the finance department’s oversight.
    • On another front, the data-integrity project undertaken to support (among other reasons) the crop and jewel loan waiver poll promise has also produced remarkable results.
    • Many instances of ghost pension recipients and free-rice-entitled category of ration card holders and malfeasance in crop and jewel loan sanctioning have come to light.
    • The rectification of such anomalies will save the government a significant amount of funds, but, more importantly, enable fairer societal outcomes.
    • Tamil Nadu is diligently following the five-step approach: Collect and analyse data to develop a deeper understanding, disseminate results into the public domain and generate a public debate, receive feedback from the debate and inputs from experts, use these inputs to design policies and put into execution, constantly seek feedback and course correct when needed.

    Conclusion

    We need the thoughtful design of policies and schemes, and their execution, which are vital to achieving our intended goal of benefiting all citizens in a fair and inclusive manner.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

    Get an IAS/IPS ranker as your 1: 1 personal mentor

  • Foreign Policy Watch: India-United States

    Trade and climate, the pivot for India-U.S. ties

    op-ed snap | International Relations | Mains Paper 2: Bilateral, Regional and Global Groupings and agreements involving India

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Not much

    Mains level: Paper 2- India-US trade and climate partnership

    Context

    The fate of the grand strategic ambitions of the Indo-US relationship may depend substantially on how well they collaborate in two areas to which their joint attention is only belatedly turning — climate and trade.

    Importance of climate change and trade to India-US partnership

    • Strategic partnerships capable of re-shaping the international global order cannot be based simply on a negative agenda.
    • Shared concerns about China provide the U.S.-India partnership a much-needed impetus to overcome the awkward efforts for deeper collaboration that have characterised the past few decades.
    • What risks being lost is a reckoning with how interrelated climate and trade are to securing U.S.-India leadership globally, and how their strategic efforts can flounder without sincere commitment to a robust bilateral agenda on both fronts.

    India-US collaboration on climate change and challenges

    • India and the U.S. are collaborating under the Climate and Clean Energy Agenda Partnership.
    • In parallel, there are hopeful signs that they are now prioritising the bilateral trade relationship by rechartering the Trade Policy Forum. 
    • At COP26 in Glasgow India announced a net zero goal for 2070, it has called for western countries to commit to negative emissions targets.
    • Challenges: India’s rhetoric of climate justice is likely to be received poorly by U.S. negotiators, particularly if it aligns with China’s messaging and obstructs efforts to reach concrete results.

    Collaboration on trade

    • The failure of the U.S. and India to articulate a shared vision for a comprehensive trade relationship raises doubts about how serious they are when each spends more time and effort negotiating with other trading partners.
    • Protectionist tendencies infect the politics of both countries these days, and, with a contentious U.S. mid-term election a year away, the political window for achieving problem-solving outcomes and setting a vision on trade for the future is closing fast.

    Climate-trade inter-relationship

    • Climate and trade are interrelated in many ways.
    • If governments, such as India and the U.S., coordinate policies to incentivise sharing of climate-related technologies and align approaches for reducing emissions associated with trade, the climate-trade inter-relationship can be a net positive one.
    • India and the U.S. could find opportunities to align their climate and trade approaches better, starting with a resolution of their disputes in the World Trade Organization (WTO) on solar panels.
    • The two countries could also chart a path that allows trade to flow for transitional energy sources, such as fuel ethanol.
    • Shared strategic interests will be undermined if India and the U.S. cannot jointly map coordinated policies on climate and trade.
    • The most immediate threat could be the possibility of new climate and trade tensions were India to insist that technology is transferred in ways that undermine incentives for innovation in both countries or if the U.S. decides that imports from India be subject to increased tariffs in the form of carbon border adjustment mechanisms or “CBAMs”.

    Conclusion

    Concerted action on both the climate and trade fronts is mutually beneficial and will lend additional strength to the foundation of a true partnership for the coming century.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

    Get an IAS/IPS ranker as your 1: 1 personal mentor

  • Economic Indicators and Various Reports On It- GDP, FD, EODB, WIR etc

    Mixed signals on growth-inflation dynamics

    op-ed snap | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Indian Economy

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Not much

    Mains level: Paper 3- Recovery momentum

    Context

    We are now at that point in the cycle where all central banks — the RBI, the US Fed, the European Central Bank, Bank of England and others — have begun to signal, a process of normalisation from the unprecedented loose monetary policy stimulus post the onset of the pandemic in early 2020.

    Recovery momentum

    • Surveys and data prints are now signalling that the recovery momentum in the first half of 2021 is decelerating in many countries, although the direction and momentum may vary.
    • The RBI Governor notes that “the external environment, which had been supportive of aggregate demand over the past few months, may lose momentum for a variety of reasons”.
    • China — its policy and economy — is the most salient risk for a sustained global recovery.
    • The Chinese authorities’ seeming determination to push ahead with structural reforms, de-carbonising initiatives, and curbs on real estate appear designed to sacrifice some short-term growth for medium-term efficiencies, and reduce financial risks and inequality.
    • Inflation in almost all major economies continues to remain high.
    • The US Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) survey measure of core inflation is running over 4 per cent.
    • The story is similar in Europe.

    Assessing India’s growth recovery

    • India’s growth–inflation dynamics are also becoming favourable, but are still subject to multiple risks.
    • In assessing India’s growth recovery, a risk of the global economy going into “stagflation”, going by US signals seems to be that if at all, it is likely to be mild.
    • The recovery of economic activity continues, although the high-frequency indicators we track suggest that the momentum observed in July and August has moderated.
    • Electricity consumption growth is also down from August levels, but part of this can be explained by both cooler, rainy weather, as well as coal shortage related cutbacks in many electricity-intensive manufacturing.
    • The residential real estate is reportedly doing exceptionally well, with low-interest rates on home loans, cuts in stamp duty and registration charges, and indeed behavioural shifts towards own home ownerships with hybrid and work from home shifts.
    • Even the commercial real estate sector is reviving.
    • The Union government also has large unspent cash balances, which can be judiciously deployed to boost both capex and consumption.
    • The overall inflation trajectory suggests a gradual glide path towards the 4 per cent target by March 2023 or a bit beyond.
    • There are risks of overshooting this forecast trajectory, despite a benign outlook on food prices.
    • This emanates from global metals, minerals, crude oil prices, and from supply bottlenecks persisting till well into 2022.

    Conclusion

    In summary, the growth–inflation signals remain mixed. Multiple episodes of global spillovers in the past couple of decades have taught us that imminent normalisation will have implications for all emerging markets.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

    Get an IAS/IPS ranker as your 1: 1 personal mentor

  • Important Judgements In News

    The Supreme Court is walking the talk on citizens’ rights

    op-ed snap | Polity | Mains Paper 2: Executive & Judiciary

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Right to privacy and judicial review

    Mains level: Paper 2- Balancing the fundamental rights of the citizens with national security concerns

    Context

    When the bench of the Chief Justice of India passed an order appointing a committee in the Pegasus matter, it served the interest of every Indian.

    What led to the appointment of committee by the Supreme Court

    • Pegasus has allegedly been used against politicians and individuals across the globe, including against politicians, journalists and other private individuals in India.
    • The issue rocked Parliament, but the government was not willing to share any information pertaining to the software or its use, citing national security as a reason.
    • The alleged victims of the software turned to the Supreme Court, and prayed for setting up of an independent enquiry.
    • The government, on being called upon by the Supreme Court, cited national security, contending that any information it let out would become a matter of public debate, which could be used by terror groups to hamper national security.
    • Its unrelenting stand left the court with no option but to take a call on whether to blindly accept the government’s refusal to share no information whatsoever, or lean in favour of a citizen’s right to privacy, a fundamental right guaranteed under the Constitution.
    • The Supreme Court chose the latter course.

    Balancing the fundamental rights  nad judicial review with national security

    • The Supreme Court has observed that “the state cannot get a free pass every time the spectre of national security is raised”.
    • It goes on to say that national security “cannot be the bugbear that the judiciary shies away from, by virtue of its mere mentioning. Although this court should be circumspect in encroaching upon the domain of national security, no omnibus prohibition can be called for against judicial review”.

    Conclusion

    The Pegasus order upholding the individual’s right to a life of dignity and privacy, is music to the ears of those who believe in constitutional values and rule of law.
    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

    Get an IAS/IPS ranker as your 1: 1 personal mentor

  • Policy Wise: India’s Power Sector

    Why India needs a Ministry of Energy?

    op-ed snap | Economics | Mains Paper 3: Infrastructure: Energy, Ports, Roads, Airports, Railways Etc.

    Note4Students

    From UPSC perspective, the following things are important:

    Prelims level: Not much

    Mains level: Paper 3- Coal shortage issue

    Context

    The blame cannot be placed on the doors of any one entity or ministry for the shortage of coal.

    Ministries linked with coal shortage issue

    • The Ministry of Coal and Coal India must certainly accept that they slipped up somewhere — whether in managing the production process, planning supplies or leaving vacant crucial leadership positions.
    • The Ministry of Power/NTPC should also accept responsibility as they allowed coal inventories to fall below the recommended minimum in an effort to better manage their working capital.
    • But they can claim they had no other option because the state government electricity distribution companies do not pay their dues on time or fully.
    • The discoms will point a finger at their political bosses, who compel them to sell electricity to residential and agricultural sector consumers at subsidised tariffs.

    Structural issues

    • There is no one public body at the central or state government level with executive oversight, responsibility and accountability for the entirety of the coal value chain.
    • This is a lacuna that afflicts the entire energy sector.
    • It will need to be filled to not only prevent a recurrence of another coal crisis but also for the country to realise its “green” ambition.
    • The word “energy” is not part of the political or administrative lexicon.
    • At least not formally. As a result, there is no energy strategy with the imprimatur of executive authority.
    • The NITI Aayog may well challenge this statement.
    • For they have produced an energy strategy.

    Suggestions

    • Energy act: The government should pass an Act (possibly) captioned “The Energy Responsibility and Security Act.”
    • This Act should elevate the significance of energy by granting it constitutional sanctity; it should embed in law, India’s responsibility to provide citizens access to secure, affordable and clean energy.
    • The law should lay out measurable metrics for monitoring the progress towards the achievement of energy independence, energy security, energy efficiency and “green” energy.
    • Ministry of energy: Towards the fulfillment of this mandate, the government should redesign the existing architecture of decision-making for energy.
    • Preference would be for the creation of an omnibus Ministry of Energy to oversee the currently siloed verticals of the ministries of petroleum, coal, renewables and power.
    • The department would have a narrower remit than the other energy departments but by virtue of its location within the PMO, it would, de facto, be the most powerful executive body with ultimate responsibility for navigating the “green transition”.

    Benefits

    • It is important to stress the positive impact the above redesign will have on investor sentiment.
    • Several corporates have signaled their intent to invest mega bucks in clean energy.
    • Reliance has committed $10 billion, Adani $ 70 billion over 10 years; Tata Power, ReNew Power and Acme Solar have also placed their stakes in the ground.

    Conclusion

    Energy sector will be immensely benefited if the current fragmented and opaque regulatory, fiscal and commercial systems and processes were replaced by a transparent and single-point executive decision-making body for energy.

    UPSC 2022 countdown has begun! Get your personal guidance plan now! (Click here)

    Get an IAS/IPS ranker as your 1: 1 personal mentor