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Type: Op-ed

  • A reality check on great CAPEX expectations

    Context

    Economists are predicting a potential virtuous capital investments (capex) cycle to kick in globally as we emerge from the pandemic.

    Why do analysts think that capital investment cycle is about to start?

    • Less leveraged: Corporates are less leveraged today compared to 2008.
    • Indian corporates repaid debts of more than Rs 1.5 trillion.
    • Fiscal and monetary support: Companies are also more confident of durable fiscal and monetary support.
    • Increased savings: Households have large excess savings built during Covid — $1.7 trillion in the US and roughly $300 billion in India as per a UBS report.
    • Cash: Lastly, corporates are sitting on a large cash pile – S&P 500 firms’ cash has soared from $1 trillion pre-pandemic to $1.5 trillion now.

    Why capex wave is difficult in India?

    • Fall in capital formation: India’s fixed capital formation rate has steadily fallen from 36 per cent of GDP in 2008 to 26 per cent in 2020.
    • For a set of 718 listed companies for which data is consistently available from 2005, the capex growth rate has decreased from 7 per cent in 2008 to around 2 per cent in 2020.
    • Low return on invested capital: The return on invested capital in FY21 is still low at 2-3 per cent compared with 16-18 per cent returns in 2005-08.
    • Structural issues: Land acquisition is still tough, changes to labour laws have been slow, and reform uncertainty has resurfaced with the rollback of the agriculture reform laws.
    • Discouraging current data: As per CMIE data, the quarter ending in June 2021 saw Rs 2.72 lakh crore worth of new projects announced. This fell to Rs 2.22 lakh crore for the September 2021 quarter.
    • This is much below the average of Rs 4 lakh crore a quarter of new project announcements during 2018 and 2019.
    • Further, new projects are concentrated in fewer industries (power, and technology) with the top three accounting for 44 per cent of the total of new projects announced.
    • Low capacity utilisation: At the same time, capacity utilisation for corporate India is at an all-time low.
    • From a peak of 83 per cent in 2010, when capex was running hot, utilisation levels declined to 70 per cent just before the pandemic, and further to 60 per cent in June 2021 as per the RBI’s latest OBICUS data.
    • Capex is funded either from fresh debt or equity issues or from accumulated cash. Large firms are repaying debt.

    Conclusion

    It is too early in the cycle to predict anything with confidence, but we need more evidence to predict a capex cycle.

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  • Selective alignment to universal engagement of Indian diplomacy

    Context

    In 2021, Indian diplomacy was characterised by a readiness to deal with friends and foes alike.

    Challenges faced by India diplomacy in 2021

    • The US leadership change: Coping with the change from President Donald Trump to President Joe Biden and the consequent changes in U.S. policy were big enough to keep the world leaders on tenterhooks.
    • Pandemic:  With the increased onslaught of the pandemic, India suddenly became the epicentre of the tragedy.
    • The exposure of the inefficiency of India’s health system and put the country in the defensive and weakened its credibility as it tried to contribute to the resolution of global issues.
    • Aggression by China: For India, the biggest preoccupation of 2021 was the effort to get China to disengage in areas in Ladakh.
    • Dialogue, military preparedness and economic pressure met with limited success.
    • Afghanistan crisis: Afghanistan turned out to be a bigger crisis than expected, with the Taliban’s walkover in Kabul.
    • Bringing some civility to the Taliban in Kabul became a high priority in the face of a Pakistan-China-Taliban axis with some support from Russia and Iran.
    • Issue of permanent membership of the UN Security Council: Unprecedented in the history of the UN, an event at the Security Council was chaired by the Prime Minister.
    • Significant inputs were provided during discussions on issues like maritime security, peacekeeping and anti-terrorism for active consideration in the future.
    • Although it is illusory to believe that the way has been cleared for India’s permanent membership of the Security Council, India’s diplomatic capabilities and its commitment to the UN have demonstrated yet again.

    What marks the change in the style of Indian diplomacy?

    • From selective alignment, India moved to universal engagement, even to the extent of convening meetings with antagonists.
    • Engagements with the U.S. went beyond familiarisation with the new government to increased commitment to Quad and acceptance of AUKUS and formation of the ‘western Quad’, with the U.S., Israel and the UAE.
    • Engagement with Russia: Major agreements were signed with Russia, despite the American threat of CAATSA against S-400 missiles and the Russian inclination to align with China in the days to come.
    • The engagement with China at the level of commanders and diplomats was intense, and ministerial interaction continued even when China tore up many fundamental agreements that sustained the dialogue for many years.
    • Patience, diligence and firmness: India attended a Shanghai Cooperation Organisation meeting, where a sub-group led by China took its own decisions on Afghanistan.
    • We also attended a meeting of Russia, China and India.
    • Perhaps because of the unique geopolitical situation, India gave particular importance to its presidency of the UN Security Council in August 2021.
    • Engagement with Myanmar: The Foreign Secretary’s visit to Myanmar to engage the military junta at a time when opposition leaders are in prison may raise eyebrows in many countries, but this is another instance of India’s readiness to engage those in power to explore possibilities of friendship and co-operation.
    •  The intention is to prevent China from having a field day in Myanmar.

    Conclusion

    Sadly, the extraordinary efforts made by India have not been fruitful in the cases of China and Afghanistan.  But India’s new style of diplomacy will have an impact in shaping the world of the future.

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  • Preparing for a green energy shift in 2022

    Context

    Political leaders find themselves currently amid a messy reality. The seemingly “irresistible force” for clean energy has met, it would appear, the “immovable object” of an embedded fossil fuel energy system.

    Changes in the energy sector in 2021

    • Commitment to Net-zero: One hundred and thirty-three countries pledged to a “net-zero carbon emissions date” and most governments, corporates and civic entities have shown determination to “phase down” and eventually phase out fossil fuels from their energy basket.
    • Price volatility: The petroleum market seesawed and was expectedly volatile.
    • High price: Natural gas prices reached stratospheric levels as demand exceeded supplies and geopolitics compounded the imbalance. 

    Five trends that will shape the emergent energy landscape

    [1] Transition to clean energy will be long and expensive

    • Redesign and rebuilding: The fossil fuel-based economic system will have to be redesigned and, in parts, rebuilt for clean energy to achieve scale.
    • The process will take decades and require massive capital infusion.
    • No country or multilateral institution can finance this transition individually.
    • The world needs to collaborate: The world will have to collaborate and if it fails to do so, the financing deficit will push back the transition even further.

    [2] Fossil fuels will dominate the energy basket during the transition

    • Fossil fuels will dominate the energy basket during this transition phase.
    • Contributing factors: As has been the case so far, its market will be defined by the “fundamentals” of demand, supply and geopolitics and the “non-fundamentals” of exchange rates and speculative trade.
    • The price movements will be sharp, volatile and unexpected.

    [3] The resurgence of market influence of OPEC plus after private companies move beyond fossil fuel

    • The “ OPEC plus” will resurge in market influence.
    • The low-cost, high resource petrostates (Saudi Arabia, the Gulf nations, Iraq, Iran, Russia) will, in particular, gain greater control over the petroleum market as private companies move beyond fossils under pressure from shareholders and regulators.

    [4] Transition will create new centres of energy power

    • The Democratic Republic of Congo controls, more than 50 per cent of the global supply of cobalt; Australia holds a comparably large share of the lithium market; and China controls the mining, processing and refining of rare earth minerals.
    • It is difficult to tell how and when these countries will exercise their market power but it is clear that the “green transition” will create new centres of energy power.

    [5] Nationalism and political opportunism will influence energy policy

    • The US and China are currently embroiled in a “Cold War” over technology, trade, cyber issues and the South China Sea.
    • The US and China appear to be in a similar face-off. But that has not come in the way of their energy relations.
    • A few weeks ago, the two countries decided to coordinate the release of oil stocks from their strategic reserves to cool off the oil market.
    • The underlying reality is that national self-interest and short-term political ambition will be the defining determinant of future energy supply relations cutting across values and rhetoric.

    Suggestions for India

    • Nurture relations with traditional suppliers: India must assiduously nurture relations with our traditional suppliers of oil and gas.
    • It must not assume their role in the energy market will diminish.
    • Increase storage capacity of strategic reserves: It should accelerate the build-up of the storage capacity for oil and gas; the latter to hold strategic oil reserves, the former to store gas for inter alia conversion to blue hydrogen.
    • Ecosystem for search and development of minerals required for clean energy: It must create a facilitative ecosystem for the search and development of the minerals and metals required for clean energy.
    • Clean energy supply chain: It should create a “clean energy aatmanirbhar supply chain”.

    Conclusion

    The green transition must not lead to import dependency on raw minerals and manufactured inputs, especially from China. The current policy to incentivise the manufacture of semiconductors is a step in the right direction.

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  • Why EC can’t delay upcoming polls

    Context

    Ever since the Allahabad High Court urged the Election Commission of India to consider banning all political rallies or postponing the upcoming Assembly elections due to the increasing threat of Omicron, the focus of debate has shifted to the EC.

    Why and when does the Election Commission clubs the elections?

    • To avoid the influence of result: As per practice, the EC clubs all elections that are so close to each other to ensure that the results in one state do not influence the voters in the state going to the polls soon after.
    • Earliest date: The earliest due date of a state determines the poll dates for all the clubbed states.
    • No delay allowed: The EC cannot delay an election even by a day, although it can advance it by up to six months.
    • The Assembly elections of five states are due in the early months of 2022, four of these in March itself — Goa (by March 15), Manipur (March 19), Uttarakhand (March 23) and Punjab (March 27).
    • The fifth — UP — is due by May 14.
    • Goa being the earliest, we must have all five elections completed before March 15.

    Why EC cannot postpone the elections?

    • Violation of Constitution: Postponing elections is not in the Election Commission’s hands at all and would be a violation of the constitutional mandate that gives every Vidhan Sabha a fixed term.
    • As soon as the term is over, the House stands dissolved automatically.
    • The term of the House cannot be extended except in an emergency declared by Parliament, which the Constitution restricts to only two situations — war and breakdown of law and order.
    • In the seven decades of our electoral history, this has happened only three times — in Assam, Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir — in insurgency situations.

    Way forward: Strict enforcement of guidelines

    • Before the Bihar elections of 2020, the EC had issued detailed guidelines based on its observation of other countries that conducted elections that year, like South Korea and Sri Lanka.
    • Reduction of the number of electors: These guidelines included the reduction of the number of electors per polling booth from 1,500 to 1,000, to prevent over-crowding, which required the addition of 33,797 auxiliary polling stations.
    • Covid-sensitive capacity building: The guidelines also included Covid-sensitive capacity-building of election officials.
    • Postal ballot option: The ECI also extended the postal ballot option to senior citizens over the age of 80, Covid-positive patients, persons with disabilities and voters in essential services.
    • Virtual campaigning: Virtual campaigning was also encouraged to stop election rallies contributing to Covid.
    • Besides the standard social distancing and sanitising norms, voters were provided with gloves to touch the EVMs.
    • To avoid crowding at the counting centres, the counting tables were reduced from 14 to seven per assembly constituency.

    Consider the question “What are the challenges in postponing the Assembly elections beyond the fixed terms of the Assembly? Suggest the way forward.”

    Conclusion

    This election is an opportunity for the EC to redeem its image. More importantly, it must guard itself against the trap of postponing the polls under any persuasion.

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  • Taiwan: An important ally in the battle against authoritarianism

    Context

    President Joe Biden-led Summit for Democracy was held on December 9-10. The summit was driven by the idea that in the face of populism, authoritarianism it is critical to keep the “democratic” flock together.

    The salience of Summit for Democracy

    • As a goal in itself: The salience of this summit lies in a deeper understanding that democracy is not just a form of government, it is a goal in itself, a value that must be cherished, preserved and celebrated.
    • Democracy as a way of life: Unlike other political systems, democracy is also a way of life — a work in progress that needs sustained attention and careful nurturing to make it more resilient.

    Taiwan as a desired partner of like-minded democracies

    • Taiwan’s New Southbound Policy (NSP) was launched in 2016 to bring Asia closer to Taiwan and vice-versa.
    • The NSP is aimed to be a pivotal tool to engage like-minded democracies in the region.
    • Role in the post-pandemic world: The post-pandemic world would be more invested in some of these areas — for example, health diplomacy and collaboration in the medical sector, climate change mitigation, and developing sustainable and resilient supply chains.
    • Platform for semiconductor industry: Taiwan is already proving its efficacy as a viable platform for the semiconductor industry.
    • Resilient supply chain mechanism: The US and its friends in the region, particularly India, Japan and Australia, have been proactively exploring possibilities of creating resilient supply chain mechanisms.
    • With its technological knowhow, and shared interests and concerns, Taiwan fits perfectly in this agenda.
    • EU’s renewed interest in Indo-Pacific: Greater interactions between Taiwan and EU on the technology cooperation front, stimulated by the latter’s renewed interest in the Indo-Pacific region, makes Taiwan a desired partner of fellow democracies.
    •  As an industrialised democracy, Taiwan could play an important role, especially since countries are trying to reduce dependence on China and establish supply chain resilience.

    Conclusion

    It is important for liberal democracies to acknowledge that they are facing similar challenges and view Taiwan as an indispensable partner. Deft diplomacy is in order since transnational challenges demand joint efforts by liberal democracies.

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  • An opportunity for Digital India

    Context

    India is pioneering the concept of digital public goods, with it, there is an opportunity for India to embark on digital diplomacy.

    Digital public goods in India

    • Built on the foundation of Aadhaar and India Stack, modular applications, big and small, are transforming the way we make payments, withdraw our PF, get our passport and driving licence and check land records, to name just a few activities.
    • There is an opportunity for India to embark on digital diplomacy — to take its made-in-India digital public goods to hundreds of emerging economies across the world.

    How Digital Diplomacy can help India?

    • This could be a strategic and effective counter to China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
    • Enhancing the productivity of emerging economies: Emerging economies are characterised by gross inefficiencies in the delivery of government services and a consequent trust deficit.
    • Digital public goods spread speed, transparency, ease and productivity across the individual-government-market ecosystem and enhance inclusivity, equity and development at scale.
    • Acceptance in emerging economies: India’s digital diplomacy will be beneficial to and welcomed by, all emerging economies from Peru to Polynesia, from Uruguay to Uganda, and from Kenya to Kazakhstan.
    • Goodwill: It will enable quick, visible and compounding benefits for India’s partner countries and earn India immense goodwill.

    Benefits of Digital diplomacy

    • Reusability: The code is highly reusable
    • Low cost: The cost of setting up an open source-based high school online educational infrastructure, to supplement the physical infrastructure, for an entire country is less than laying two kilometres of high-quality road.
    • No debt trap: The investments required for transporting digital public goods are minuscule in comparison and there is no chance of a debt trap.
    • Short gestation period: Unlike physical infrastructures such as ports and roads, digital public goods have short gestation periods and immediate, and visible impact and benefits.
    • It plugs leaks: Digital infrastructure plugs leaks.
    • It eliminates ghost beneficiaries of government services, removes touts collecting rent, creates an audit trail, makes the individual-government-market interface transparent and provides efficiencies that help recoup the investments quickly.
    • Processes get streamlined and wait times for any service come down dramatically.
    • Increases productivity: Productivity goes up and services can be scaled quickly.
    • Benefits can be rapidly extended to cover a much larger portion of the population.
    • Compounding instead of depreciation: Above all, the digital public goods infrastructure compounds while physical infrastructure depreciates.

    Three ways in which digital public goods infrastructure compound

    • Compounding happens for three reasons.
    • [1] Growth of technologyy: Chips keep becoming faster, engines more powerful, and gene-editing technology keeps improving.
    • [2] Network effect: As more and more people use the same technology, the number of “transactions” using that technology increase exponentially — be it Facebook posts or UPI transactions.
    • [3] Rapid creation of new layers of technology: For example, the hypertext protocol created the worldwide web.
    • Then the browser was built on top of it, which made the worldwide web easier to navigate and more popular.
    • Thousands of new layers were added to make it what it is today.
    • Growth of UPI in India: To give an example, consider the surge in UPI-based payments in India.
    • This kind of growth doesn’t happen with a few entitled and privileged people using UPI more and more; it happens with more and more people using UPI more and more.
    • Use of Diksha: The use of Diksha, the school education platform built on the open-source platform Sunbird, has followed the same trajectory — today close to 500 million schoolchildren are using it.

    Conclusion

    Made in India digital tools can help other emerging economies deal with economic, governance challenges.

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  • A lack of political will to end the Palk Bay conflict

    Context

    The arrest of 68 Indian fishermen by the Sri Lankan authorities between December 18 and 20 and the impounding of 10 boats for “poaching” in the territorial waters of Sri Lanka has flared up the conflict between the two countries.

    About Palk Bay

    • Palk Bay is home to diverse resources including 580 species of fish, extends from Point Calimere of Nagapattinam district to Mandapam-Dhanushkodi of Ramanathapuram district over about 250 km.
    • Source of dispute: It is an important marine zone between south-eastern India and northern Sri Lanka, has been a source of dispute for long.

    About the conflict

    • Negotiations: The genesis of the dispute can be traced to the October 1921 negotiations between representatives of the Governments of Madras and Ceylon, on the need for the delimitation of the Palk Strait and the Gulf of Mannar.
    • Delimitation: It was in the mid-1970s that two agreements were signed by India and Sri Lanka, under which the International Maritime Boundary Line (IMBL) came into being.
    • Instead of settling the issues, the pacts gave way to new problems, including the recurring incidents of Tamil Nadu fishermen crossing the IMBL and getting caught by the Sri Lankan authorities.

    Cause of the problem

    • Different fishing practices: The asymmetric nature of fishing practices in Tamil Nadu and the Northern Province of Sri Lanka is said to be the cause of the problem.
    • While Tamil Nadu’s fishing community uses mechanised bottom trawlers, its counterpart uses conventional forms of fishing, as trawling is banned in Sri Lanka.
    • Difference in resources: The fishermen of Tamil Nadu continue to cross the IMBL, as the Sri Lankan side of the Bay is considered to have more fishery resources than the Indian side.

    Way forward

    • Weak away fishermen from trawling: The deep-sea fishing project,  to wean away the fishermen of Tamil Nadu from bottom trawling, launched in July 2017, has not yielded the desired results.
    • Relaxation of norms of the project is under the consideration of the Union Government, to draw greater response from the fishermen.
    • Motivation for deep-sea fishing: Given the fact that deep sea fishing takes longer duration and has a higher recurring cost per voyage than what the fishing community experiences currently, the need for providing continuous motivation to the fisherfolk assumes critical importance.
    • Other strategies: Various strategies, including the promotion of seaweed cultivation, open sea cage cultivation, seaweed cultivation and processing, and sea/ocean ranching should be adopted.
    • Forming FPOs: There is a view that if the community is encouraged to form fish farmer producer organisations, it may take to sustainable fishing practices.
    • Institution of stakeholders: A section of specialists favours the creation of an international institution of stakeholders for regulating the fishing sector in the Bay.

    Consider the question “What leads to the dispute between India and Sri Lanka over the Palk Bay? Suggest the way forward for fishermen in Tamil Nadu.”

    Conclusion

    For all this to happen, sustained public pressure and political will are a must.

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    Back2Basics: What is bottom trawling?

    • A bottom trawl consists of a large tapered net with a wide mouth and a small enclosed end.
    • The mouth of a trawl net has two weighted doors that serve not only to keep the net open, but also to keep the net on the ocean floor.
    • These doors can weigh several tons.
    • In addition to the heavy doors, the bottom of the net is a thick metal cable (footrope) studded with heavy steel balls or rubber bobbins that effectively crush everything in their path.
    • As the net drags along the seafloor, living habitat in its path is crushed, ripped up, or smothered as the seabed is turned over.

  • Vying for influence over Kabul

    Context

    On December 19, Pakistan hosted a special session of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) to address the crisis in Afghanistan.

    The humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan and how regional countries are responding to it

    • The humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan is peaking with no basic amenities available for its population and a harsh winter ahead.
    • While Pakistan hosted the OIC, India played host to foreign ministers of Central Asian states where Afghanistan topped the agenda as well.
    • All the attending countries — Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Kyrgyzstan — also OIC members, chose to prioritise deliberations with New Delhi.

    Qatar’s growing influence in Afghanistan and implications for the region

    • Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Pakistan were the only three countries that had officially recognised the previous Taliban government in 1996, until its fall in 2001.
    • Fast forward to the 2010s, and it was the small but rich state of Qatar that became the mediating force on Afghanistan.
    • Doha hosted the official Taliban political office from 2013 to allow negotiations with the U.S.
    • Qatar’s new role on Afghanistan gave it significant diplomatic and political visibility the world over.
    • In West Asia, Qatar’s growing influence was causing unease in the traditional power centres in Abu Dhabi and Riyadh, specifically on issues such as the Qatari leadership’s support for political Islam and organisations such as the Muslim Brotherhood.

    Fundamental changes

    • Economic blockade: In 2017 the UAE and Saudi Arabia initiated an economic blockade against Doha in the hope of reigning the Kingdom in and disallowing it from pursuing its geopolitical designs that were challenging the long-held power status quos.
    • This four-year long impasse ended in 2021.
    • These four years created fundamental changes within the larger Arab Gulf construct.
    • Qatar mitigated risk and moved closer towards Turkey and Iran.
    • Today, both Qatar and Turkey are bidding to operate a landlocked Afghanistan’s airports under the Taliban regime.
    • For the Gulf specifically, Qatar’s punching-above-its-weight approach in geopolitics was also making it more powerful and influential with Washington D.C.
    • To mitigate this, the Saudis played a central role during the recent OIC special session.
    •  They repaired their broken relationship with Pakistan.

    Way forward for India

    • Over the past decade, India has recognised the importance of middle powers in the Arab Gulf to a fast-evolving global order, from fighting against terrorism to newer diplomacy challenges such as Afghanistan.

    Conclusion

    The Arab Gulf is poised to become an important player once again in Afghanistan under the shadow of the Taliban.

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  • Put out the data, boost the dose of transparency

    Context

    The Government must make COVID-19 data including that for vaccine regulatory approvals and policy available.

    Kay decisions

    • On December 25, the Prime Minister of India announced two key decisions.
    • Vaccination of children: All children in the 15-17 age bracket will be eligible to receive COVID-19 vaccines from January 3, 2022.
    • Third shot: All health-care workers, frontline workers and the people aged 60 years and above (with co-morbidities and on the advice of a medical doctor) can get a third shot, or ‘precaution dose’.
    •  The eligibility for the precaution dose will be on the completion of nine months or 39 weeks after the second dose.
    • Teenage children whose birth year is 2007 or before will be eligible for COVID-19 vaccines.
    • Children will receive Covaxin, the reason being (according to the note) it is the only emergency use listed (EUL) World Health Organization vaccine available for use in this age group in India.

    Issues with the decision

    • Lack of scientific evidence: The decision is said to be based on ‘advice of the scientific community’.
    • A few members of the National Technical Advisory Group on Immunisation (NTAGI) in India,  have written or spoken publicly about not having enough scientific evidence to administer booster doses and vaccinate children in India.
    • Successive national and State-level sero-surveys have reported that a majority of children in India had got natural infection, while staying at home and thus developed antibodies.
    • The studies have shown that children rarely develop moderate to severe COVID-19 disease.
    • Targeted vaccination approach not adopted: Most public health and vaccine experts favour a ‘targeted vaccination approach’ by prioritising high-risk children for COVID-19 vaccination.
    • However, such an approach is likely to face an operational challenge in the identification of the eligible children.
    • Consultation cost:  A majority of the elderly have one or other comorbidities. Of the 14 crore elderly population in India, an estimated 7 to 10 crore people could have co-morbidities.
    •  If they have to seek advice from a physician, in order to get vaccinated, this essentially means that there would be up to 10 crore of medical consultations, which would come at a cost —  all of which is avoidable.

    Suggestions

    • Do away with prescription: The conditionality of comorbidities and the need for advice/prescription by a doctor for ‘the precaution shot’ in the elderly should be done away with.
    • Third dose to all immunocompromised adults: There is scientific evidence and consensus on administering the third dose for immunocompromised adults.
    • The Indian government should urgently consider administering a third dose for all immunocompromised adults, irrespective of age.
    • Third dose on a different vaccine platform: Studies have found that a heterologous prime-boost approach — third shot on a different vaccine platform — is a better approach.
    • Identify policy questions: Various pending policy questions on COVID-19 vaccine need to be identified urgently.
    • The technical expert should be given complete access to COVID-19 data for analysis and to find answers to those scientific and policy questions.
    • Vaccine supply and stock management: Vaccination for teenage children, exclusively with Covaxin (which means 15 crore doses for this sub-group) has other implications.
    • Covaxin will also be needed for people coming for their first shot, returning for their second shot, and then for their ‘precaution dose’ if a third shot of the same vaccine is allowed.
    • Focus on primary vaccination: The precaution dose and vaccination for children should not divert attention from the task of primary vaccination, which continues to be an unfinished task in India; 46 crore doses are still needed for the first and second shots.
    • Make data public: It is time the Union and State governments in India make COVID-19 data — this includes clinical outcomes, testing, genomic sequencing as well as vaccination — available in the public domain.
    • This would help in formulating and updating COVID-19 policy and strategies and also assess the impact of ‘precaution dose’ as well as vaccination of children.

    Conclusion

    The Indian government urgently needs to make COVID-19 data available, including the one used for regulatory approvals of vaccines and for vaccine policy decisions. This will bring transparency in decision making and increase the trust of the citizen in the process.

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  • Why the Aadhaar-voter ID link must be stopped

    Context

    The Election Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2021 which facilitates amendment to the Representation of People’s Act, is a step toward implementing online-based remote e-voting for which the use of Aadhaar will be the primary identity.

    Objectives of linking

    • The linking of Aadhaar with one’s voter ID was primarily to build a biometric dependent voting system from the very beginning.
    • The change could help fight fraud and duplicates in the electoral rolls.

    About the pilot programmes on linking the voter id

    • In 2014, the Election Commission of India (ECI) conducted two pilot programmes on linking the voter id with Aadhaar in the districts of Nizamabad and Hyderabad.
    • Based on the effectiveness, the ECI called for a National Consultation on Aadhaar and voter id linking.
    • The ECI launched the National Electoral Roll Purification and Authentication Programme (NERPAP) on April 1, 2015, which had to be completed by August 31, 2015.
    • After a Supreme Court of India order on August 11, 2015, it was announced that this NERPAP would be shut down.
    • But as Telangana and Andhra Pradesh were early adopters of this programme since 2014, both States have nearly completed linking Aadhaar and voter id for all residents.
    • Methodology is unknown: The methodology followed by the ECI to find duplicate voters using Aadhaar is unknown to the general public.
    • SRDH data used: In a letter from the CEO Andhra Pradesh (then for Telangana and Andhra Pradesh) to the ECI, it is clear that the State Resident Data Hub (SRDH) application of the Government of Telangana and Andhra Pradesh was used to curate electoral rolls.
    • The SRDH has data on residents of the State which is supplied by the Unique Identification Authority of India (UIDAI) or collected further by the State governments.
    •  While the UIDAI was constrained not to collect data on caste, religion and other sensitive information data for Aadhaar, it recommended to the States to collect this information, if required, as part of Aadhaar data collection; it termed the process as Know Your Resident (KYR) and Know Your Resident Plus (KYR+).
    • It is these SRDH applications that the ECI used to curate electoral rolls which resulted in the deletion of a sizeable number of voters from the list in Telangana in 2018.

    Concerns

    • Disenfranchisement: The role of the ECI to verify voters using door-to-door verification (in 2015) has been subsumed; a software algorithm commissioned by the Government for purposes unknown to the public and maintained by a private IT company is in control now.
    • Subjecting key electoral rolls to surveillance software damages the concept of universal adult suffrage.
    • What the experience in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh highlights is voter suppression and disenfranchisement.
    • Issue of ensuring electoral integrity: In a situation where the role of money makes a mockery of the democratic process, linking Aadhaar will be futile.
    • Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs), if foolproof, put an end to the days of booth capturing prevalent in the days of paper ballots.
    • E-voting can also be gamed using malware to change the outcome of an election.
    • While the Bill does not look into large-scale e-voting, there is an issue of ensuring electoral integrity.
    • Voter profiling: An Aadhaar-voter ID linkage will also help political parties create voter profiles and influence the voting process.
    • Online trends on the day of voting and micro-targeting voters using their data will make it easier for political parties in power to use data for elections.

    Consider the question “What are the objectives of Aadhar-Voter Id linking? What are the concerns associated with such linking?”

    Conclusion

    The linking of Aadhaar with voter ID will create complexities in the voter databases that will be hard to fix. This process will introduce errors in electoral rolls and vastly impact India’s electoral democracy.

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