Foreign Policy Watch: India-Pakistan

Terror, treaties, and civilisations: Indus through the centuries

Why in the News?

On April 22, a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, killed 26 civilians. In response, the Indian government took several diplomatic steps, including suspending the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT).

Why is the Indus Waters Treaty crucial for India-Pakistan ties?

  • Framework for Water Sharing: The IWT provides a clear, legally binding agreement on how the Indus River and its tributaries are shared, reducing the risk of water conflicts between India and Pakistan. Eg: India controls the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej), while Pakistan manages the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab), helping avoid disputes over water access.
  • Endurance Amid Political Tensions: Despite wars and terrorist attacks (e.g., 2008 Mumbai attacks, 2019 Pulwama attack), the treaty has endured for over six decades, maintaining a vital channel of cooperation between two hostile neighbors. Eg: Even after the 2019 Pulwama terror attack, the treaty remained a key framework for managing shared water resources.
  • Diplomatic Leverage and Stability: The treaty serves as a strategic tool in diplomatic relations, with India occasionally using it as leverage while ensuring continued water flow, preventing escalation into broader conflict. Eg: After the 2023 Pahalgam attack, India announced suspension of some treaty provisions as a diplomatic response.

How does climate change affect the Indus Basin?

  • Glacial Melt and Water Flow Variability: The Indus Basin depends heavily on glacier-fed rivers, with about 80% of water coming from glacial melt. Climate change accelerates glacier melting, causing short-term floods and long-term water shortages during dry seasons.
  • Rising Water Demand and Scarcity: Growing population and agricultural needs increase pressure on limited water resources, worsening water scarcity in the basin, especially in Pakistan, where water availability has dropped below critical levels. Eg: Irrigation losses in Pakistan exceed 50% in some areas, threatening food security.
  • Impact on Agriculture and Livelihoods: Reduced and unpredictable water flow due to climate change affects crop yields and fisheries, destabilizing rural economies dependent on the Indus Basin.

How did colonial irrigation projects influence post-independence water disputes?

  • Extensive Canal Systems Built by British: The British developed large canal networks for irrigation, creating shared water infrastructure across regions. Eg: The 1915 Triple Canal Project linked major tributaries, affecting river flows between future India and Pakistan.
  • Altered Natural River Flow: British dams and barrages controlled floods and irrigation but changed river courses, leading to downstream access issues. Eg: Barrages on the Indus and its tributaries shifted water availability patterns.
  • No Formal Water Sharing Post-Partition: At independence, India and Pakistan inherited interconnected irrigation but lacked agreements on water distribution. Eg: This led to conflicts over the use of eastern and western rivers after 1947.
  • Regional Water Imbalances: Colonial irrigation prioritized certain areas, creating uneven water distribution that fueled disputes. Eg: Punjab’s canal systems served both countries but became points of contention.

What lessons can India draw from other river treaties? (Way forward)

  • Promote Cooperative Water Management: Successful treaties often emphasize joint management and data sharing to build trust and avoid conflicts. Eg: The Mekong River Commission involves multiple countries collaborating on water usage and flood control.
  • Include Climate Change Adaptation: Modern treaties factor in environmental changes and sustainable usage to address future water challenges. Eg: The Nile Basin Initiative incorporates climate resilience strategies for water-sharing among East African nations.
  • Establish Dispute Resolution Mechanisms: Effective treaties have clear, impartial conflict resolution processes to handle disagreements peacefully. Eg: The Danube River Protection Convention includes mechanisms for arbitration and mediation among European countries.

Mains PYQ:

[UPSC 2020] In what way have the science-based technologies triggered off striking changes in agriculture?

Linkage: Genome editing is a science-based technology that represents a significant advancement capable of triggering changes in agriculture by developing improved crop varieties.

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