Mentor’s Comment

This editorial examines how recent U.S. actions under Donald Trump have disrupted long-standing global nuclear norms, especially the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) framework. The article evaluates implications for global nuclear stability, India’s strategic environment, and emerging arms-race dynamics. It has been rewritten to suit UPSC Mains standards, with structured analysis, value addition, and exam-oriented elements.

INTRODUCTION

The global nuclear order, built since 1945 through treaties, moratoria, and non-proliferation norms, is undergoing significant strain. The U.S. announcement of resuming nuclear testing and redefining CTBT obligations marks a decisive departure from three decades of restraint. This shift impacts nuclear doctrines, arms control regimes, and the behaviour of declared and undeclared nuclear weapon states.

WHY IN THE NEWS 

The CTBT framework faces its sharpest crisis in 27 years after Donald Trump declared that the U.S. may resume nuclear explosive testing, reversing the long-standing global moratorium. This marks the first major deviation from post-Cold War consensus and directly challenges existing verification norms. With Russia abandoning CTBT ratification and China refusing explosive testing, the U.S. move risks triggering a new technological arms race, raising concerns for India’s regional security environment.

How the Nuclear Order Evolved

1. Post-1945 restructuring: Nuclear stockpiles reduced from ~65,000 warheads in the 1970s to ~12,500 today; nine states now possess nuclear weapons.
2. NPT framework: NPT created a hierarchy between five permanent nuclear powers and later entrants such as India, Pakistan, and North Korea.
3. Moratorium period: CTBT negotiations from 1993-96 led to a global halt on explosive tests despite the treaty never entering into force.

Why the U.S. Nuclear Test Resumption Matters

1. Resumption of explosive testing: President Trump instructed the U.S. DoE and DoD to prepare for renewed testing, reversing a voluntary halt maintained since 1992.
2. Shift in doctrine: U.S. pursuit of low-yield warheads and submarine-launched cruise missiles signals a move to battlefield-oriented nuclear systems.
3. Erosion of restraint: The U.S. argues Russia and China conduct “non-explosive yield tests,” challenging Washington’s previous compliance stance.

Why the CTBT Is Facing Breakdown

1. Treaty not in force: CTBT requires ratification by 187 signatory states; key holdouts include the U.S., China, India, Pakistan, and North Korea.
2. Russia’s reversal: Russia withdrew CTBT ratification in 2023, citing U.S. non-ratification.
3. Competing interpretations: China and Russia continue “zero-yield” testing; the CTBT Organization’s monitoring system detects global activity through 300+ stations.

How New Technology Is Altering the Arms Race

1. Low-yield weapons: U.S. development of W76-2 warheads creates escalation risks due to tactical usability.
2. Unmanned and hypersonic systems: Renewed R&D on missile defence, high-tech cruise systems, and autonomous platforms challenges existing deterrence logic.
3. Doctrinal changes: Nuclear powers pursue counterforce-oriented designs to survive adversary first strikes.

Implications for India

1. Regional chain reaction: Testing by the U.S., Russia, or China is likely to push Pakistan to follow, widening the deterrence gap with India.
2. China-Pakistan axis: Deepening technological cooperation complicates India’s security environment.
3. NPT/CTBT dilemma: India may face pressure on whether to revisit explosive testing if others abandon restraint.

CONCLUSION

The breakdown of CTBT norms marks the most significant shift in the nuclear order since the 1990s. Renewed explosive testing by major powers could trigger competitive modernization cycles and weaken global arms control regimes. For India, the challenge lies in balancing credible deterrence with adherence to restraint-based global norms.

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