Why in News?
India’s southwest monsoon rainfall deficit widened to 35%, with Central India recording a 61% deficit, as the monsoon stalled before reaching Mumbai. The Centre has placed around 150 to 200 districts under priority monitoring and directed States to prepare crop-wise contingency plans.
Key Highlights
- All-India rainfall deficit: 35%.
- Regional deficits: Northwest India: +5%, East & Northeast India: -43%, Central India: -61%, and Southern Peninsula: -14%
- Monsoon reached Kerala on 4 June, but its advance weakened near Mumbai.
- Around 150 to 200 districts under priority monitoring.
- Government encouraging a shift towards cotton and pulses.
- Reservoir storage stood at 30.4% of capacity, compared to 25.1% average during previous El Niño years.
Why has the Monsoon Stalled?
- Anticyclonic circulation north of Mumbai blocked monsoon progression.
- Influence of mid-latitude westerly systems.
- Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in an unfavourable phase.
- Next monsoon pulse may strengthen with a low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal.
El Niño Concerns
- El Niño: Periodic warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that generally suppresses the Indian monsoon.
- U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA): Issued El Niño advisory on 11 June. 63% probability of a very strong El Niño by winter.
- World Meteorological Organization (WMO): 80% probability of El Niño developing between June and August.
- India Meteorological Department (IMD):
- Seasonal rainfall forecast revised from 92% to 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
- Assigned a 60% probability of a deficient monsoon, the most pessimistic pre-season forecast since 2015.
- No positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) expected to offset El Niño effects.
Significance
- Threatens kharif sowing and agricultural output.
- May increase food inflation and rural distress.
- Necessitates timely contingency planning and climate-resilient agriculture.
- Highlights the need for improved water management and drought preparedness.
Value Addition
- Long Period Average (LPA): Average rainfall during 1971-2020, used as the benchmark for monsoon forecasts.
- Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO): Eastward-moving atmospheric disturbance influencing monsoon activity.
- Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): Difference in sea surface temperatures between the western and eastern Indian Ocean that can influence Indian monsoon rainfall.
[2017] With reference to ‘Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD)’ sometimes mentioned in the news while forecasting Indian monsoon, which of the following statements is/are correct?
1. IOD phenomenon is characterised by a difference in sea surface temperature between tropical Western Indian Ocean and tropical Eastern Pacific Ocean.
2. An IOD phenomenon can influence an El Nino’s impact on the monsoon.
Select the correct answer using the code given below:
[A] 1 only
[B] 2 only
[C] Both 1 and 2
[D] Neither 1 nor 2