Outbound force

Why in the News

US troops have left Iraq more than 23 years after the 2003 invasion, at a time when the US fights another war in the region, against Iran. The exit leaves a war-ravaged country with a weak government and powerful militias backed by a resurgent Iran, exposing the limits of regime-change wars in West Asia.

Why did the US invade Iraq, and why did it take so long to leave?

1. Stated grounds: The US invaded in March 2003, claiming Saddam Hussein’s regime held weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and harboured terrorist groups. The WMD claim proved false.
2. Reversed withdrawal: US President Barack Obama announced withdrawal in 2011. Troops returned when the Islamic State captured large territory in Iraq and Syria.
3. The takeaway: A war launched on a false premise ended as an exit forced by attacks, not by a completed mission.

How did the invasion reshape Iraq?

1. State collapse: The destruction of Saddam’s Ba’athist state, run by his Ba’ath Party, and the abrupt rise of Shia parties widened social divisions. The result was a civil war that killed hundreds of thousands of Iraqis.
2. Rise of the Islamic State: Al-Qaeda in Iraq, one of al-Qaeda’s most violent branches, grew in post-war Iraq. It became the Islamic State by 2014 and spread terror across the region.
3. State within the state: The Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMFs, or Hashad al-Shabi), an umbrella of Iran-backed Shia militias, now rival the Iraqi state’s authority.

How did the war tilt the regional balance toward Iran?

1. Lost buffer: Saddam’s Iraq was hostile to the Gulf monarchies but still served as a buffer between them and Iran.
2. Iranian reach: After the regime fell, Iran extended its influence across Iraq through Shia parties and militias.
3. Current war: Hashad joined the war after the US and Israel began bombing Iran on February 28. Iran and its allies have since made at least 600 attacks on US facilities in Iraq.
4. Timing of the exit: The US is leaving Iraq just as it tries to defeat Iran in a major regional war. Iran and its allies have vowed to push the US out of West Asia.

What does the exit say about regime-change wars?

1. Afghanistan parallel: The US left Afghanistan after 20 years, handing it back to the same Taliban it toppled in 2001. Iraq is left to a weak government and Iran-backed militias.
2. Regional fallout: Regime-change wars destabilised parts of West Asia and gave rise to militias and jihadists.
3. Limits of power: Keeping troops in Iraq became unsustainable under militia attacks, so the US leaves worn out, if not defeated.

Challenges

1. Militia dominance: Armed groups outside state control can override an elected government in Baghdad.
2. Jihadist revival: A security vacuum can let Islamic State remnants regroup.
3. Iranian proxy network: Iran-backed groups can widen the regional war from Iraqi soil.
4. Energy exposure: Instability threatens oil supply to importers like India. Eg. Iraq is among India’s largest crude suppliers.

Way Forward

1. Unified command: Baghdad should bring the PMFs under a single civilian chain of command.
2. Regional dialogue: Gulf states and Iran should keep channels open to limit escalation. Eg. The 2023 Saudi Arabia-Iran normalisation.
3. Supply diversification: India should spread crude sourcing and keep evacuation plans ready for its nationals in West Asia.

Conclusion

The US exit closes an occupation but leaves Iraq’s central question unresolved: whether an elected state or Iran-backed militias hold real power. How Baghdad handles the PMFs as the US-Iran war continues will decide whether Iraq stabilises or becomes the war’s next front.

Matching Previous Year Question

“[2024] Consider the following pairs: Country Reason for being in the news 1. Argentina Worst economic crisis 2. Sudan War between the country’s regular army and paramilitary forces 3. Turkey Rescinded its membership of NATO How many of the pairs given above are correctly matched? (a) Only one pair (b) Only two pairs* (c) All three pairs (d) None of the pairs Answer: B”