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  • How the ozone layer hole over Arctic closed?

    Recently the EU’s Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) announced that a hole in the Arctic ozone layer, believed to be the biggest reported, has closed.

    What healed the hole in the Ozone?

    • The ozone hole’s closing was because of a phenomenon called the polar vortex, and not because of reduced pollution levels due to Covid-19 lockdowns around the world.
    • The hole in the North Pole’s ozone layer, which was first detected in February, had since reached a maximum extension of around 1 million sq km.

    Ozone hole

    • The ‘ozone hole’ is not really a hole — it refers to a region in the stratosphere where the concentration of ozone becomes extremely low in certain months.
    • Ozone, made up of three oxygen atoms, occurs naturally in small amounts.
    • Roughly 10 km to 40 km up in the atmosphere (the layer called the stratosphere), the ozone layer is sunscreen, shielding Earth from harmful ultraviolet radiation.
    • Manufactured chemicals deplete the ozone layer. Each spring over Antarctica (it now springs there), atmospheric ozone is destroyed by chemical processes.
    • This creates the ozone hole, which occurs because of special meteorological and chemical conditions that exist in that region.

    The importance of the ozone layer

    • Ozone (chemically O3, a molecule of three oxygen atoms) is found mainly in the upper atmosphere, an area called the stratosphere, between 10 and 50 km from the earth’s surface.
    • Though it is talked of as a layer, ozone is present in the atmosphere in rather low concentrations.
    • Even at places where this layer is thickest, there are not more than a few molecules of ozone for every million air molecules.
    • They perform a very important function. By absorbing the harmful ultraviolet radiations from the sun, the ozone molecules eliminate a big threat to life forms on earth.
    • UV rays can cause skin cancer and other diseases and deformities in plants and animals.

    Why this year’s hole was massive?

    • This year, the ozone depletion over the Arctic was much larger.
    • Scientists believe that unusual atmospheric conditions, including freezing temperatures in the stratosphere, were responsible.
    • Cold temperatures (below -80°C), sunlight, wind fields and substances such as chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were responsible for the degradation of the Arctic ozone layer.
    • Although Arctic temperatures do not usually fall as low as in Antarctica, this year, powerful winds flowing around the North Pole trapped cold air within what is known as the polar vortex.
    • By the end of the polar winter, the first sunlight over the North Pole initiated this unusually strong ozone depletion—causing the hole to form.

    How long it will take for complete recovery?

    • As per the Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion data of 2018, the ozone layer in parts of the stratosphere has recovered at a rate of 1-3 per cent per decade since 2000.
    • At these projected rates, the Northern Hemisphere and mid-latitude ozone is predicted to recover by around 2030, followed by the Southern Hemisphere around 2050, and polar regions by 2060.

    Also read: Polar Vortex

    https://www.civilsdaily.com/news/whats-causing-extreme-cold-in-us-midwest/

  • What are Deep Fakes?

    Cybercrime officials in India have been tracking certain apps and websites that produce vulgar photographs of innocent persons using Artificial Intelligence (AI) algorithms. These images are then used to blackmail victims, seek revenge or commit fraud on social networking and dating sites.

    The most notorious misuse of AI is knocking the door. The Deepfake is an application of Deep Learning (an axiom of AI and Machine Learning). UPSC may ask a mains question about the challenges posed by AI-based technology.

    What is Deep Fake?

    • Cybercriminals use AI software — now easily available on apps and websites — to superimpose a digital composite (assembling multiple media files to make a final one) on to an existing video, photo or audio.
    • They are computer-generated images and videos.
    • Using AI algorithms a person’s words, head movements and expressions are transferred onto another person in a seamless fashion.
    • That makes it difficult to tell that it is a deepfake unless one closely observes the media file.

    Threats posed

    • Because of how realistic deepfake images, audio and videos can be, the technology is vulnerable for use by cybercriminals who could spread misinformation to intimidate or blackmail people.
    • With real-time face tracking it is becoming easier to fabricate believable videos of people doing and saying things they never did.
    • There are rising cases of “revenge porn” i.e. creation of sexually explicit videos or images that are posted on the Internet without the consent of the subject as a way to harass them.

    What are the catfish accounts?

    • Catfishing refers to the practice of setting up fictitious online profiles most often for the purpose of luring another into a fraudulent romantic relationship.
    • A “catfish” account is set up a fake social media profile with the goal of duping that person into falling for the false persona.

    What can we do to protect yourself?

    • A basic check of their social media profiles, comments on the images and whether similar profiles exist could help determine if the person is genuine.
    • While it is not easy to keep track of who downloads or misuses the user images, the best way to protect is to ensure that we are using privacy settings on social media profiles.
    • If one feels his/her image has been used without prior permission, they could use freely available reverse image search tools to find images that are similar to yours.
    • One can also be mindful of who he/she is conversing with on the web.

  • Who was Lord Basaveshwara?

    Prime Minister has offered his homage to the 12th-century social reformer Basaveshwara on his birth anniversary.

    Vaishnavism and Shaivism are the two most profound strands of Bhakti Movement in Indian history. Enlist all the Bhakti Saints and their theistic philosophy and teachings. Try to spot the minute differences between them.

    Lord Basaveshwara

    • Basaveshwara or Basavanna was an Indian 12th-century statesman, philosopher, a poet and Lingayat saint in the Shiva-focussed Bhakti movement and a social reformer in Karnataka.
    • He lived during the reign of the Kalyani Chalukya/Kalachuri dynasty.
    • He was active during the rule of both dynasties but reached his peak of influence during the rule of King Bijjala II in Karnataka, India .

    Founder of Lingayat cult

    • The traditional legends and hagiographic texts state Basava to be the founder of the Lingayats.
    • However, modern scholarship relying on historical evidence such as the Kalachuri inscriptions state that Basava was the poet-philosopher who revived, refined and energized an already existing tradition.

    His Philosophy

    • Basava’s Lingayat theology was a form of qualified nondualism, wherein the individual Atman (soul) is the body of God, and that there is no difference between Shiva and Atman (self, soul).
    • Basava’s views finds places in Vedanta school, in a form closer to the 11th century Vishishtadvaita philosopher Ramanuja.

    Famous works

    • Basavanna spread social awareness through his poetry, popularly known as Vachanaas.
    • Basavanna rejected gender or social discrimination, superstitions and rituals but introduced Ishtalinga necklace, with an image of the Shiva Liṅga to every person regardless of his or her birth.
    • As the chief minister of his kingdom, he introduced new public institutions such as the Anubhava Mantapa (or, the “hall of spiritual experience”) which welcomed men and women from all socio-economic backgrounds.

    Back2Basics: Bhakti Movement

    • The Bhakti movement refers to the theistic devotional trend that emerged in medieval Hinduism.
    • It originated in eighth-century south India and spread northwards.
    • It swept over east and north India from the 15th century onwards, reaching its zenith between the 15th and 17th century CE.
    • It has traditionally been considered as an influential social reformation in Hinduism, and provided an individual-focused alternative path to spirituality regardless of one’s birth or gender
    • Salvation which was previously considered attainable only by men of Brahmin, Kshatriya and Vaishya castes, became available to everyone.

  • The universal delivery of food and cash transfers by the state amid Covid-19

    This focus of this article is on the universal delivery of food and cash transfer amid corona pandemic. There are some estimates of the cost of universal cash transfer and food delivery in the article and suggestion to ensure universal delivery.

    Universal food and cash delivery is needed

    • The immediate need for universal food and cash delivery is by now obvious and urgent.
    • Across the country, there are reports of people — migrant workers, local workers, peasants, pastoralists, fisherpeople, vendors, ragpickers, and the destitute — facing extreme hardship, even starvation, because their livelihoods have been extinguished by the lockdown.
    • These have created further an unprecedented humanitarian crisis, as millions of households with depleted savings have no way to access food and other basic necessities over the coming weeks.
    • The threat of infection from COVID-19 makes even harder their coping mechanisms.
    • In these dire circumstances, it is essential for the state to directly provide the basic means of survival to anyone who needs it.
    • This must be in both cash and kind. Food access is the most important.
    • But because of the closure of economic activity and the absence of any livelihood opportunity, this must be combined with cash transfers to tide over this period and the immediate aftermath.
    • Food transfers must be provided for at least six months, and cash transfers for at least three months, though these can be extended depending on the period of lockdown.
    • Because of the severity of the crisis and the high probability of widespread hunger and descent into poverty, these transfers must be universal, made available to every person who needs them, without relying on exclusionary criteria, existing lists or biometric identification.

    The points mentioned below give us the ideal of food-grain stocks with India. And there are also the estimates of how much would be required if we decide to go for universal delivery of food. The data given below is important from Mains perspective.

    How much will be the cost of universal food delivery?

    • Consider first free universal provisioning of 10 kg of grain (wheat or rice) per person per month.
    • This is likely to be availed of by at most around 80 per cent of the population.
    • With an estimated population of 1.3 billion, providing this for six months would require 62.4 million tonnes of grain.
    • This is a maximal estimate — the actual requirement would be lower.
    • Stocks with the FCI: The FCI is currently holding 77 million tonnes of foodgrain stocks, compared to buffer stock norms of 24 million tonnes.
    • It is expected to procure another 40 million tonnes from the current rabi harvest.
    • It could easily release and allow the free distribution of foodgrain of 5 million tonnes and still have foodgrain stocks of 54.5 million tonnes, if the expected rabi procurement targets are met.
    • Cost of storing grains: Furthermore, it is costly for the FCI to store this grain. The current costs of storage are estimated to be Rs 5.60 per kilogramme per year or Rs 2.80 for six months.
    • This means that by releasing 4 million tonnes to feed the hungry of India over the next six months, the FCI would actually be saving Rs 17,472 crore, assuming that these idle stocks would have persisted.
    • But even if these were sold, the costs are the revenue that would have been earned.
    • This is difficult to estimate but by using Finance Minister’s estimates in Budget we get a (maximal) figure of Rs 1,17,000 crore.

    Cost of universal cash transfer

    • In addition, a proposed cash transfer of Rs 7,000 per month for three months to every household, assuming again that 80 per cent of households would receive this.
    • With five persons per household, this expenditure would be Rs 4,36,800 crore.
    • The two transfers together amount to Rs 5,53,800 crore, or around 9 per cent of currently estimated GDP.

    Financing the expenditure through fiscal deficit

    • This sum of Rs. 5,53,800 is not a forbidding sum.
    • A great part of the responsibility to make these resources available vests with the Union government.
    • But whatever taxes are introduced in a supplementary budget that has become unavoidable, the expenditure incurred has to be financed immediately through a fiscal deficit.
    • Given the massive deflationary pressures and a complete collapse of economic activity, there is a strong case for financing the additional public expenditure through deficit financing or borrowing directly from the RBI.
    • This is required both for coping with the pandemic and for softening the blow of the lockdown.

    Following two suggestions are important suggestions for the delivery of food and cash in case we don’t have reliable data.

    How to ensure universal delivery of food?

    • The question arises of how universal delivery of these food and cash transfers is to be ensured.
    • Existing lists are inadequate for the purpose because they significantly underestimate and exclude those who should be beneficiaries.
    • For example, at least 100 million people are excluded from access to food under the National Food Security Act based on the 2011 Census.
    • The most effective way of dealing with the food emergency is to provide food delivery at doorsteps or neighbourhood collection points to anyone who asks for it, with a simple marker such as the indelible ink used during elections to serve as the indicator of receipt.

    How to endure universal delivery of cash?

    • For cash transfers, the matter is more complicated.
    • In rural India, MGNREGA job cards and pensions cover most households and allow bank payments.
    • The urban poor include migrants, contract and casual workers mostly in small and medium enterprises, daily wagers, domestic workers, self-employed persons like street vendors, sex workers and ragpickers, and the destitute including homeless people.
    • But there is no comprehensive record of the urban poor because the state has instituted no effective mechanisms to secure labour rights or social security rights to most urban workers.
    • The urban poor build and service the city, surviving without rights and a hostile or indifferent state.
    • The legally-mandated registration of inter-state migrants and construction workers in practice excludes most because their employers with the connivance of the state don’t wish to be bound to secure their rights.
    • The humanitarian emergency created by the pandemic and lockdown entails universal cash transfers again to every adult who presents herself to designated officials in decentralised offices.
    • For those who have accessible bank accounts, the funds can be credited to these accounts.
    • For others, the Odisha system, whereby pensions are disbursed as cash in hand at pre-specified times, maybe a useful model to follow.
    • This also can be adopted with indelible ink as proof of receipt.

    Employment schemes after cash transfers

    • The income transfers must quickly give way to an expanded rural employment guarantee scheme, and a new urban employment programme.
    • These urban employment programs include caregiving and building water supply, sanitation and shelter for the urban poor.
    • Private hospitals also need to be nationalised at least for the duration of the pandemic.

    Conclusion

    The working and poor people should not be made to bear the burden of the pandemic. There is a need for a bold resolve, by central and state governments, to literally reach the last person, rural or urban, with the food and cash they require to survive with dignity.

     

     

  • East India will require heavy investment to tide over the post-Covid loss of livelihood

    The article discusses the issue of migrant labourers and the problems eastern states could face due to the return of labourers and the lack of employment opportunities in these states. The return of migrant labourers may lead to the mechanisation in the states where they worked. A relief-cum-stimulus package at least 5% of the GDP is suggested by the author.

    IMF’s projections for the economy

    • The IMF’s projections for GDP growth for this year seem to be either in the negative or below 2 per cent for almost all major countries of the G-20 group.
    • India could do a little better compared to the other BRICS nations, but its growth will most likely be below 2 per cent.
    • This, of course, is under an optimistic scenario.
    • Many experts reckon that India could also go into negative GDP growth this year if it does not reboot the economy properly and in time.

    The problem of collapse in demand

    • The Centre and the Reserve Bank of India are trying to remove all roadblocks so that factories and farms can resume operations.
    • The focus is largely on the supply side — how to ease restrictions and how to increase liquidity in the system for resuming production.
    • It may not take too long as the real problem is the collapse in demand.
    • And that demand may not pick up easily as the virus is likely to stay with us for quite some time.
    • We could have lockdowns again if there is a surge in infection.
    • This will surely limit our travel and restrict our shopping for non-essentials.
    • However, there is one demand that can easily revive — that of food.

    Why food demand matters?

    • The NSSO survey of consumption expenditures for 2011-12 revealed that about 45 per cent of the total expenditure of an Indian household is on food.
    • For the poor, the NSSO reckoned, this figure was about 60 per cent.
    • We do not have information about the consumption patterns in 2020, guess is that about 35-40 per cent of the expenditure of an Indian household is on food and for a poor household, this figure is around 50 per cent.
    • Herein, lies the scope to reboot the economy.

    Labour shortage and mechanisation

    • The sudden announcement of the nationwide lockdown gave labours no time to go back to their families.
    • They lost their jobs and incomes and having spent whatever little savings they had, these workers have been reduced to penury.
    • The Centre and states, despite their best efforts, have not managed to address the problem of hunger of these workers.
    • Even civil society has not managed to bridge the gap.
    • The migrant labourers may well have lost their trust in the state, and once the lockdown is lifted, most of them are likely to rush back to their families in villages.
    • And, it could be some time before they are back in the cities — that is, if they return at all.
    • So, farms and factories, especially the MSMEs in the relatively developed states of western, southern and north-western India are likely to face labour shortages for many months, perhaps years.
    • This could lead to more mechanisation of farms and factories in these states.
    • In Punjab, for example, most of the wheat harvesting is already done by combined harvesters.
    • Now even paddy harvesting could be done by mechanised harvesters.

    The double challenge for states which are home to migrants

    • However, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, and Odisha, from where much of the migrant labour comes, will face a double challenge.
    • Their agriculture, with tiny farm holdings, is already saddled with a large labour force — this comprises 45 to 55 per cent of the total labour force of these states.
    • Non-farm income from wages and salaries, through migrant labour, was an important source of income for households in these states.
    • This is now severely hit. In all probability, the per capita rural incomes of these states could shrink, at least in the short run.
    • This could lead to poverty and increase hunger and malnutrition.
    • How does one then reboot the economy and also address hunger and malnutrition?

    The lockdown and the subsequent plight of the migrant labourers brought to the fore uneven development in the country. The points mentioned below suggest the ways to address this problem. A question based on this issue could be asked by the UPSC, for ex- “The issue of migrant labourers amid Covid-19 pandemic highlighted the uneven development in the country. In this context, state the reasons which led to the uneven development of various regions of the country. Suggest ways to address the problem”.

    The requirement of a special investment package for eastern states

    • A special investment package — like the Marshall Plan of USA in 1948 — for the eastern belt of India is required.
    • Investment should be used to build better infrastructure, agri-markets and godowns, rural housing, primary health centres, schools and enhances people’s skills.
    • The package will go a long way to revive the economy and augment the incomes of the migrant workers.
    • Rising incomes will generate more demand for food as well as manufactured products, giving a fillip to the growth engines of agriculture as well as the MSME sector.
    • Building better supply chains for food directly from farm-to-fork, led by the private sector, will enhance the export competitiveness of agriculture.
    • It will also ensure a higher share of farmers in the consumers’ rupee.
    • Long-term demand-driven growth: Such broad-based development in a relatively underdeveloped region of the country will lay the foundations of a long-term, demand-driven, growth of the industry in India.
    • The all India relief package of Rs 1.7 lakh crore announced by the central government earlier, which is about 0.8 per cent of the country’s GDP, is too small to reboot the economy.

    Conclusion

    If India has to bounce back quickly, it needs a much bigger relief cum stimulus package — certainly not below 5 per cent of GDP. And, it should focus more on the eastern belt, where the issue is that of survival.

    Back2Basics: Marshall Plan, 1948

    • The Marshall Plan, also known as the European Recovery Program, was a U.S. program providing aid to Western Europe following the devastation of World War II.
    • It was enacted in 1948 and provided more than $15 billion to help finance rebuilding efforts on the continent.
    • The brainchild of U.S. Secretary of State George C. Marshall, for whom it was named, it was crafted as a four-year plan to reconstruct cities, industries and infrastructure heavily damaged during the war and to remove trade barriers between European neighbours – as well as foster commerce between those countries and the United States.

  • Exercise Pitch Black 2020

    Australia has informed India that their premier multilateral air combat training exercise Pitch Black 2020 scheduled in July has been cancelled due to the COVID-19 situation.

    All-time generic question seeking ‘match the pairs’ can be asked from the news as such.  Click here for more exercises.

     Ex Pitch Black 2020

    • Exercise Pitch Black is a biennial warfare exercise hosted by the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF).
    • The aim of the exercise is to practice Offensive Counter Air (OCA) and Defensive Counter Air (DCA) combat, in a simulated war environment.
    • In the last edition of Pitch Black in 2018, the IAF for the first time participated with its Su-30MKI fighters, one C-130 and one C-17 transport aircraft.
    • It provided a unique opportunity for an exchange of knowledge and experience with these nations in a dynamic warfare environment.
    • The next edition of Pitch Black is scheduled in 2022.

    India’s defence relation with Australia

    • The defence and strategic engagement with Australia have steadily gone up in recent years especially on the bilateral front with naval cooperation at the forefront.
    • The bilateral naval exercise AUSINDEX early last year saw the participation of the largest Australian contingent ever to India with over 1,000 personnel.
    • The Mutual Logistics Support Agreement (MLSA) has been long pending and is expected to be concluded soon as well as a broader maritime cooperation agreement including the Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) to elevate the existing strategic partnership.
    • Australia recently made a pitch for trilateral cooperation among India, Australia and Indonesia to identify new ways that our three countries can collaborate to be the best possible custodians of the Indian Ocean.

  • Lockdown with a human face: Immediate focus should be on alleviating hardships of poor, vulnerable groups

    The article deals with the policy response to the crisis. Reducing the pain inflicted on the poor and vulnerable section should be the priority. The size and nature of the stimulus package is also discussed in the article.

    The dilemma of lives Vs. livelihood

    • As the coronavirus spreads, severe dilemmas haunt policymakers.
    • Testing of lockdown? Even the scientific community is confused and does not seem to know whether the South Korean model of more intensive testing is preferable to the European model of a complete lockdown.
    • The economic crisis that we are facing today is very different from any crisis that we have encountered recently.
    • This is the first economic crisis in recent memory to have been triggered by a non-economic factor — a pandemic.
    • A lockdown essentially amounts to limited economic activity and this results in throwing temporary workers and daily wage earners out of employment.
    • Migrant labour falls in this category.
    • According to the 2011 census, the number of migrant workers under the category, “migrants for work/employment” was 41.42 million.
    • This number must have grown substantially by now.
    • The impact of the lockdown has fallen very heavily on the poor and vulnerable groups.
    • We need to bear this in mind while evolving the strategy to combat the virus.

    Expenditure during the pandemic

    • First, medical and healthcare expenditure, which includes the money spent on extension of hospital facilities, employment of additional medical and healthcare workers, costs of testing on a much wider scale and the purchase of accessories like personal protection equipment, ventilators and testing kits.
    • The expenditure under this category is a “must” and there can be no compromise on it.
    • The length of the battle will decide the cost.
    • Second, the expenditure involved in taking care of the people thrown out of employment, and other vulnerable sections of the population.
    • Third, stimulation expenditure aimed at restarting the economy. Here, the financial system presided over by the RBI will play an important role. But the government also has a role.

    Two issues to consider while deciding on the lockdown

    • The “life” versus “livelihood” dilemma pertains to the lockdown policy.
    • A tight lockdown over an extended period may save lives by curtailing the progress of the virus.
    • But at the same time, it places several segments of society under severe hardship.
    • With the lack of economic activity, many will go hungry.
    • In this context, the government must look at two issues.
    • First, it must consider to the extent to which the lockdown can be relaxed while keeping in mind the priority of restricting the spread of the virus.
    • The government has recently announced some relaxations.
    • This is a welcome step. However, it must keep this concern under continuous consideration. It must explore other options on the medical front as well.
    • For example, will more testing make it possible to reduce restrictions?
    • Second, if the lockdown is a “compulsion”, we need to pay adequate attention to the plight of people who have been affected adversely.
    • The government had earlier announced certain measures to help some segments of society.
    • With the lockdown being extended, it is necessary to raise the levels of relief, and also cover segments of society not covered earlier — migrant labour, for example.

    The following points about the stimulus package are appearing repeatedly in most of the article on economic damage to the economy. They are also relevant from the UPSC perspective. A question based on it,  like “What steps were taken by the government to revive the Indian economy in the aftermath of the corona crisis?” can be asked.

    What should be the nature of the stimulus package?

    • There is much talk about a “stimulation package” to revive the economy.
    • The financial system will have to lead the charge.
    • Additional expenditure: Expectations regarding additional expenditures by the government vary from 2 per cent of the GDP to 5 per cent of the GDP.
    • Normal sources of financing will not be adequate to meet this order of expenditure.
    • Many analysts felt that the figure of 3.5 per cent of the GDP as the fiscal deficit, indicated in the budget for 2020-21, would be exceeded.
    • The pandemic will necessitate an increase in expenditure.
    • Moreover, with the decline in economic activity, revenues will also go down.
    • The revenue projections were made on the assumption that the nominal income growth would be 10 per cent.
    • But this is unlikely to be achieved. The nominal income growth is likely to be 7 per cent, at best.
    • Given the increase in expenditures and the slowdown in revenue collection, the borrowing programme will exceed significantly over what was indicated in the budget.
    • The monetisation of debt is inevitable and it will have its own consequences.
    • Provisions for states: The brunt of the expenditures will be borne by the state governments and therefore, the Centre must allocate additional resources to them.
    • They may also be allowed additional borrowing above 3 per cent of the state domestic product.

    What will be the overall growth rate for India?

    • In the first quarter of 2020-21, the GDP growth rate will be negative.
    • Agricultural performance during the year could be the same as in 2019-20 as the rainfall is expected to be normal.
    • The developed world may go through a recession over the year.
    • Thus the external sector may not be of much help.
    • It is quite possible for the economy to have a V-type recovery from the second quarter of 2020-21.
    • On that assumption, the overall growth rate for the year can be 3 per cent. This is an optimistic estimate.

    Conclusion

    To return to the present, the focus of the government has to be two-fold. It must act vigorously to contain the virus, explore the possible alternatives to complete lockdown. Second, it must take all actions to provide adequate help to the poor and the needy including the migrant workers. Lockdown, as necessary, must be with a human face.

     

  • Public policy dilemma of choosing between lives and livelihood

    This article deals with how the different sections of a society assign different weightage to the various factors they are faced with in life. In the case of Covid-19, one section of society which is well-off might care more about the possible loss of life while other section might end up attaching more weightage to the loss of livelihood than to the possible loss of life due to infection. The article discusses this issue in detail.

    Difference between risk and uncertainty

    • Since the days of Frank Knight, economists have differentiated between the two.
    • Risk has a known probability distribution.
    • For uncertainty, the probability distribution is unknwon.
    • COVID-19 makes us confront uncertainty, not risk.
    • For uncertainty, there is a subjective probability distribution, which can, and does, vary from individual to individual.

    So, how the subjective probability distribution is devised by a person?

    • Through information and experience, one already possesses.
    • There are various rationality assumptions used by economists. They are often violated.
    • Otherwise, behavioural economics wouldn’t have come into existence.
    • Typically, given a situation, when your decision doesn’t agree with someone else, you say they are being irrational.
    • However, with uncertainty, the problem may not be with rationality assumptions, but with differences in subjective probability distributions.

    Lack of data for various factors

    • Because of COVID-19, there is a certain risk of getting infected. Let’s call this the infection rate — total infections divided by the total population.
    • We don’t know this infection rate for India or for any other country for that matter.
    • No country has done universal testing.
    • No testing for random sample: No country has done universal testing for a proper random sample either.
    • The ICMR has told us more than 75 per cent of Indian patients will be asymptomatic.
    • Who do we test? Those who show symptoms, those who have been in contact with confirmed patients and those who suffer from severe respiratory diseases.
    • Most countries do something similar.
    • Sampling bias: In other words, when we work out an infection rate based on those tested, there is a sampling bias.
    • This isn’t a proper infection rate.
    • The only country where we have had something like a random sample is Iceland.
    • There, the infection rate was 0.8 per cent.
    • Data for death rate: There are similar caveats about the death rate.
    • If we mechanically divide the number of deaths by the number of confirmed cases for India, we will get a death rate just over 3 per cent.
    • The global figure is a little less than 7 per cent.
    • But neither of these is a death rate for the total population since only those with severe symptoms are included in infection numbers.
    • Three per cent or seven per cent are over-estimates.
    • In a controlled environment like Diamond Princess, death rate as a ratio of total passengers, and not those infected, was less than 0.4 per cent.
    • The true infection rate and true death rate are not alarming numbers.

    How the lack of data is reflected in subjective probability distribution?

    • There are slices in India’s population pyramid with rural/urban and other spatial differences too.
    • Consider two extreme types-type A and type B.
    • Type A, who are globalised in information access and morbidity.
    • Life expectancy is 80 plus and there are lifestyle diseases like diabetes and high blood pressure.
    • This co-morbidity increases possible death rates and thanks to globalised access to information, certainly increases perceptions about death rates, making them out to be higher than they are.
    • Some of them have fixed incomes, regardless of what happens to lockdown.
    • The high probability assigned to loss of life: In terms of maximising expected payoffs with a subjective distribution, high probability is attached to loss of life and low probability to loss of livelihood.
    • How type B forms a subjective probability?
    • Type B, someone whose life expectancy is 60, without a fixed income stream and whose health concerns are tuberculosis and water-borne diseases, not COVID-19.
    • Nor is access to information that globalised.
    • The high probability assigned to loss of livelihood: High subjective probability will be attached to loss of livelihood and low probability to death from COVID.
    • Both types reflect subjective probabilities. Neither is “irrational”.
    • The tension between the two: Type A would like the lockdown to continue indefinitely, until the long tail of the infection curve tapers off, perhaps beyond September.
    • Type B would like lockdown to be eased soon, with necessary restrictions in hotspots.
    • There is indeed tension between lives and livelihood.
    • Even if health outcomes and information access are like Type A, but income is contingent on growth, preferences might mirror Type B.

    The issues highlighted here can be broadly used in the various scenario where there is uncertainty involved and various stakeholders perceive the probable outcomes in entirely different ways. Various points here can be used to answer the question based on policy making.

    Balancing the differential individual preferences in public policy

    • One set of individuals imposes its choice on the rest.
    • Type A disproportionately influences policy.
    • This determination of aggregate preferences is a dynamic process.
    • Therefore, sooner or later, Type B contests this and as the lockdown is prolonged and livelihood costs mount, discontent surfaces, as it has across a range of countries.
    • There were also welfare economics notions that pre-dated social choice theory, such as compensation principles of Kaldor, Hicks and Scitovsky.
    • The point can be made using the two stereotypes. Specifically, Type A need to compensate Type B for their losses.
    • To state it starkly, livelihood losses suffered by Type B need to be compensated by the government through redistributive measures and this has to be financed by higher taxes imposed on Type-A.
    • The right question for the Type A is not whether they want the lockdown to continue, but whether they are willing to pay a COVID-tax to support lockdown extension.

    A question based on policy formation issues explained here can be framed, for ex. “Risk has a known probability distribution. For uncertainty, the probability distribution is unknown. COVID-19 makes us confront uncertainty, not risk. In this context, there is a debate between saving lives and saving livelihoods. In such a scenario, what can be the most probable solutions that public policy must delve into, in order to maintain the balance between this uncertainty and risk.”

    Conclusion

    Extending or ending the lockdown decision represent the public policy dilemma. Without a revival in growth, the tax-paying capacity of Type B is limited and with job losses, some Type As become Type Bs. The choice is starker.

  • Stress test of leadership in pandemic

    The article discusses the three stages involved in successfully dealing with the pandemic. In the next part, it goes on to explain the factors that determine the success or failure of the governments. In the last week, we read about the success story of Kerala and underlying reasons. This article is also written on similar lines.

    Stages in the pandemic response

    • Disease outbreaks, even global pandemics, are scarcely new. The playbook for dealing with them, therefore, is well understood and has been honed by practices and lessons gleaned from hard-fought battles.
    • A first stage is an early clear-eyed recognition of the incoming threat, and, in the case of COVID-19 at least, requires the unpalatable decision to lock down society.
    • Ideally, this is done with full consideration of how to support the most vulnerable members of society, especially in a country such as India, where so many survive hand-to-mouth.
    • This is a phase aimed at buying time, of flattening the epidemic curve, so that public health facilities are not overwhelmed.
    • And, for using this time, paid for by collective sacrifice, to secure the personal protective equipment (PPE) and medical supplies necessary to save lives.
    • The second phase of the pandemic response is slowly to ease the burden on the economy by permitting a measured return of business activity so that livelihoods and supply chains can be restored.
    • This stage can only be safely executed if accompanied by a war-footing expansion of testing capacity so that new infections can be identified and isolated at once, allowing contact tracing to be implemented by masses trained to do this crucial and painstaking work in communities across the country.
    • The final stage, which for COVID-19 seems a lifetime away, is a mass vaccination programme and then the full rebuilding of economic and social life.
    • None of this is easy, but, like an examination in a dreaded subject, one’s only hope is early and persistent preparation and, at crunch time, remembering the lessons learned.

    The above-mentioned stages are sort of a template that seems to have gained acceptance for dealing with the pandemic. A question based on it, like “What are the various stages involved in government’s response to deal with a pandemic?”

    Following three factors make the difference between successful and failed response

    1. Leadership problems in global politics

    • The defensive finger-pointing, opportunistic politicking and xenophobic posturing are shown by some leaders amid pandemic.
    • This is not a crisis that can be tackled without robust and multidimensional international cooperation between nations.
    • We are watching in real-time the benefits of intellectual collaboration that does not stop at national borders.
    • From the epidemiologists to the medical community identifying more effective treatments, to the research scientists racing to find a vaccine, we are benefiting from collaboration.
    • But the nationalistic turn in global politics over the past two decades has reduced investment in and undermined the legitimacy of the very institutions that facilitate international partnership at the very time they are needed most.
    • Prime Minister Narendra Modi did well to convene the leaders of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) nations in mid-March to discuss the possibility of a regional response.
    • But that video-conference call also highlighted that there have been no summit-level meetings of SAARC since 2014.
    • Similarly, United States President Donald Trump demanded that the U.S. end funding of the World Health Organization (WHO).
    • This not only endangers American lives by cutting off his own administration’s access to vital international data.
    • But also directly affects India which receives significant funding and expertise from WHO with ~10% of its overall WHO financing in 2019 coming directly from the U.S.

    2. The whole-of-the-government strategy

    • Pandemic response requires a whole-of-government strategy, for which political will and legitimate leadership are vital to convene and maintain.
    • Germany and Kerala provide two powerful though different examples of this in action.
    • In Germany, in spite of a high level of federalism that gives its States (Länder) a lot of power, Chancellor Angela Merkel’s ability to mobilise the entire system has allowed Germany to emerge as a success story in Europe.
    • In Kerala, State Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan convened a State response team at the earliest possible moment and has provided the full weight of his office in support of a coordinated public health strategy that has been accepted by the State’s citizens who have learned to trust the government in such situations.
    • Yet these two examples stand out in part for how rare they are.
    • Consider again the cautionary tale of the U.S. where some State Governors have yet to issue stay-at-home orders.

    3. The robust public health system

    • We are seeing first hand the consequences of starving public health systems of necessary funds and resources.
    • The comparative advantage of the private sector is efficiency; the need of the hour in pandemic response is redundancy, or, more precisely, excess capacity.
    • Most hospitals do not need invasive ventilators normally, just as they do not need vast stocks of PPE and extra intensive care units beds, but these are essential goods right now as we brace ourselves for a flood of sick patients into hospitals.
    • Watching the advanced health-care system of northern Italy buckle under the unimaginable pressures to which it was exposed over the past six weeks should be a cautionary tale for all countries that thought turning health care over to private actors was responsible governance. It is not.
    • Again, consider Kerala, which has consistently ranked at the top of State rankings for health expenditures.
    • Kerala has, a well-functioning local public health system capable of implementing the test-isolate-trace protocols critical for fighting COVID-19.

    Conclusion

    With the central role of leadership and governance underlined in the successful dealing with the pandemic, leadership across the world need to come together to coordinate at all levels in dealing with the problems that are not bound by any border.

  • SWAMITVA Scheme to map rural inhabited lands

    The Prime Minister has launched the Swamitva Scheme and e-Gramswaraj Portal & mobile app as a portal to prepare and plan Gram Panchayat Development Plans.

    Swamitva Scheme

    • SWAMITVA stands for Survey of Villages and Mapping with Improvised Technology in Village Areas.
    • Under the scheme, the latest surveying technology such as drones will be used for measuring the inhabited land in villages and rural areas.
    • The mapping and survey will be conducted in collaboration with the Survey of India, State Revenue Department and State Panchayati Raj Department under the Ministry of Panchayati Raj.
    • The drones will draw the digital map of every property falling in the geographical limit of each Indian village.
    • Property Cards will be prepared and given to the respective owners.

    Benefits

    • The scheme will create records of land ownership in villages and these records will further facilitate tax collection, new building plan and issuance of permits.
    • It will enable the government to effectively plan for the infrastructural programs in villages.
    • It would help in reducing the disputes over property.

    What is e-Gramswaraj Portal?

    • E Gram Swaraj portal is the official portal of central govt for the implementation of Swamitva scheme.
    • By visiting this portal people can check their Panchayat profile easily. It will also contain the details of ongoing development works and the fund allocated for them.
    • Any citizen can create his or her account on the portal and can know about the developmental works of villages.
    • The user of E Gram Swaraj portal can also access all work of the Ministry of Panchayati Raj.
    • This single interface will help speed-up the implementation of projects in rural areas from planning to completion.