Distribution: weekly

Context

• The decision to invite President Abdel Fattah al Sisi of Egypt as the Chief Guest on Republic Day is an important gesture and should go a long way in imparting fresh momentum to India’s ties with the largest country in the Arab world.

Crack Prelims 2023! Talk to our Rankers

What makes Egypt a pivotal player?

• With a population of almost 110 million, a location that straddles Africa and Asia, a standing army that is the largest in the region, a capital that hosts the League of Arab States and a diplomatic presence that punches above its weight in global affairs, Egypt is a pivotal player.

Why Egypt matter to India?

• Close relationship immediately after Independence: It is a country with which India enjoyed an exceptionally close relationship in the first couple of decades after our independence.
• Shipping route: The Sumed pipeline runs from Ain Sukhna on the Red Sea coast to Sidi Kerir on the Mediterranean coast in Egypt. It is an important sea route.
• Shared vision of NAM: The personal equation between PM Nehru and President Nasser was legendary and the two also became the stalwarts of the non-aligned movement during the Cold War of the 1960s.
• Joint fighter project: At the political level, the two countries were close enough for India to send clandestine arms shipments to Egypt during the Suez crisis in 1956 and contemplate nuclear cooperation and a joint fighter project in the 1960s.
• Indian literature in Egypt: It was a time when Mahatma Gandhi and Rabindranath Tagore were household names and their works were translated into Arabic by leading figures of Arab literature.

A drift for almost 30 years

• The two countries drifted apart Particularly during President Hosni Mubarak’s long innings from 1981 to 2011.
• According to diplomatic folklore, an apparently minor protocol gaffe over seating arrangements during the New Delhi NAM summit in 1983 was seen as a personal affront and it took all of 25 years before Mubarak could be persuaded to return to India in November 2008.

Growing ties and willingness to work together 

• Egypt showed its intent to work together: President Sisi came into power in 2014 and Egypt again showed its intent, first through his participation in the India-Africa Forum Summit in Delhi in 2015 and again through a state visit in 2016.
• Back-to-back visits by India and emphasis on defence cooperation: Defence cooperation is clearly one of the themes and high-level exchanges over the last two years led to Desert Warrior, the first-ever joint tactical exercise by the air force of the two countries, with IAF sending five Mirage 2000 fighters and a refuelling aircraft to El Berigat Airbase in Egypt.
• Egyptian interest in India’s Tejas and Dhruv: The Egyptians have also shown some interest in India’s Tejas fighter jets and Dhruv light attack helicopters, although this is still at a fairly preliminary stage.
• Cooperation to counter hostilities: Equally important is the behind-the-scenes support provided by them in countering hostile moves by Pakistan at forums like the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and by refraining from making any adverse comment during the Nupur Sharma affair.
• Mutual goodwill: Both countries also demonstrated mutual goodwill by helping each other at crucial times over the last two years.
• Remdesivir supplied by Egypt to India: When India was hit hard by the second wave of COVID-19, Egypt responded by dispatching three plane loads of medical supplies and providing 300,000 doses of Remdesivir in May 2021.
• India reciprocated by supplying wheat: India reciprocated a year later when Egypt, the world’s largest importer of wheat, was facing a dire situation following the abrupt halt in wheat shipments from Ukraine. The Indian response also paved the way for Egypt to visit India’s wheat growing areas and register India for regular wheat exports to the country.
• Bilateral trade is well below the potential but it is growing: Bolstered by these tailwinds, bilateral trade has grown by almost 75 percent last year to touch US$ 7 billion, although this is well below the potential, given the size of the two economies. But it is Egypt’s emerging investment scenario that offers a more interesting opportunity.

Current status of Egypt’s economy and India’s investment

• Egypt’s economy is struggling: Growth in the non-oil sector has been anaemic, foreign exchange reserves have dwindled and the Egyptian pound has been in free fall, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) administering a bitter dose of medicine to fix some of the problems.
• Economic and administrative reforms: After several abortive starts and forced by the gravity of the economic crisis, the Egyptian government finally seems to be getting serious about implementing both economic and administrative reforms
• Ease of doing business is welcomed by India: Indian companies have invested in Egypt and by and large, they have done well. Indian companies are positive in their feedback, with some saying quite candidly that after years of apathy, they are finally being heard and action is being taken to make ease of doing business a reality.
• Plan to develop Suez Canal Economic zone into global manufacturing hub: The ambitious plans to develop the Suez Canal Economic Zone into a global manufacturing hub are now gathering critical mass. Gurgaon-based ReNew Power seems to be the first off the blocks from India and has signed an agreement to set up a Green Hydrogen facility. It is clearly driven by attractive tax incentives, cheap and abundant land, 365 days of sun to produce the solar energy needed for the electrolysers, and the strategic location that makes it easy to access the European markets.

Way ahead to further improve the ties

• For India, a deeper economic engagement with Egypt therefore acquires an additional strategic imperative.
• While Egypt clearly needs to do more to market itself as an investment destination in India, it is also important for industry bodies like CII, FICCI and ASSOCHAM to take a more pro-active approach.
• ReNew Power has shown the way but it will need a joint government-industry initiative to acquire the scale needed to make an impact.

Conclusion

• For now, there are clear indications that India under Prime Minister Modi and Egypt under President Sisi may finally be moving towards achieving some of the potential in bilateral ties that has remained unfulfilled for the last four decades.

Context

• Japan’s National Security Strategy released in December is a remarkable document. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, China’s assertive rise, and Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK-North Korea) provocations are listed as key developments creating for Japan the most severe and complex security environment since the end of the Second World War.

Crack Prelims 2023! Talk to our Rankers

What are Japan’s new concerns?

• Chinese increasing military power: Unconstrained by bilateral or multilateral agreements, Chinese military power is noted as growing exponentially. In less than a decade, the Chinese nuclear arsenal would match numbers currently held by the US and Russia. Expectations are low that the US would have the will or the capacity to bring China to the arms control table.
• DPRK is riding a runaway proliferation train: Having shaken off all the limits to its nuclear programme it pretended to accept during the Trump Administration, its nuclear programme is perhaps now unstoppable.
• The inadequacy of its current defence posture and its military alliance with the US: As underlined by the document, extended deterrence including nuclear weapons is the cornerstone of the US-Japan alliance. Its success until now allowed Japan the luxury of its three nuclear no’s policy no production, possession, or introduction of nuclear weapons on its territory.

What worries Japan in its future adequacy and the options

• The stated option: The National Security Strategy calls for Japan to strengthen the deterrence and response capabilities of its alliance with the US, including extended deterrence by the US, backed by its full range of capabilities, including nuclear.
• Possibility trends of nuclear-sharing by Japan: The unstated part is the possibility of nuclear-sharing by Japan. If implemented, this may be new to Asia but is a long-standing US practice with its key NATO allies in Europe. US willingness to share nuclear-powered submarines with Australia as part of AUKUS is an indicator of possible trends.
• Possibility of Japan itself acquiring nuclear weapons: The document makes no reference to this. But there are references to the US – in Japan’s view the world’s greatest comprehensive power finding it increasingly difficult to maintain a free and open international order. Behind Japanese politeness, the message is clear.
• Strategic autonomy in Japanese style: Significantly, the document adds that Japan would seek to strengthen its defence capabilities to the point at which Japan is able to take primary responsibility for its defence, without excluding support from the US.

How India should view this development?

• If Japan goes nuclear, India should welcome the decision: In our separate ways, India and Japan privileged nuclear disarmament as a priority. But there comes a time when this national preference must be subordinated to the demands of national security.
• Understanding the reason: India reached this conclusion reluctantly but with good reason in 1998. If Japan were to reach the same conclusion, it too would have good reason to do so.
• Ensuring self-defence capabilities and Upholding the sovereignty: Its technological capabilities are not in doubt. It is for Japan to exercise its inherent and inalienable right of ensuring the necessary means of self-defence. Thinking the unthinkable in terms of changing policy is an attribute of sovereignty, not its negation.

Way ahead

• Japan’s turn towards an explicit nuclear option will come, if at all, not out of choice but out of necessity.
• Its strategic predicament, laid bare by the document, is compounded by the lack of easy answers, a predicament that India should view with sympathy and understanding of a fellow Asian country.
• Japan is also a strong supporter of the NPT, and its derivative non-proliferation regime but it is also painfully aware that the NPT does precious little to constrain China, nor for that matter DPRK.
• The gap between Japan’s security needs in a nuclearized world and its non-nuclear public sentiment was papered over in the past by US extended deterrence. It looks less likely that will be the case in the future.

Conclusion

• A multipolar Indo-Pacific can be truly multipolar only if Japan is assured of national defence through the means of its choosing. As a strategic partner and friend, we must keep faith that Japan will make the right decision at the right time.

Mains question

Q. Recently Japan released its National security strategy. In this backdrop discuss what concerns Japan and how India should view this development?

(Click) FREE 1-to-1 on-call Mentorship by IAS-IPS officers | Discuss doubts, strategy, sources, and more