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Distribution: weekly

  • Indian economic growth forecast

    growth

    Context

    • The Indian economy is expected to grow at 7 per cent in 2022-23 as per the first advance estimates of national income released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) on Friday. This is marginally higher than the RBI’s most recent assessment in the December monetary policy committee meeting, the central bank had lowered its expectation of growth to 6.8 per cent.

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    growth

    Estimate: Indian economic growth

    • As per the latest estimates growth is likely to slow down in later half: Considering that the economy grew by 9.7 per cent in the first half of the financial year (April-September), the latest estimate implies that growth is likely to slow down to 4.5 per cent in the second half of the year (October-March) as the base effect wanes.
    • Full year growth estimates India will be fastest growing economy: Notwithstanding that, the full-year growth estimate suggests that India will be one of the fastest-growing economies in the world.

    Positive signs in the Indian Economy

    • Positive medium-term growth prospects: Company and bank balance sheets are healthier, credit growth is rising, and capacity utilisation has increased, all of which augur well for investment activity.
    • Positive impact on tourism: The waning of Covid-19 should hopefully have a positive impact on travel, transport and tourism. Construction activity should pick up further with the reduction in housing inventory and almost stable prices over the last decade.
    • On inflation India is doing better: On the inflation front, India is doing better than many advanced economies and emerging markets.

    growth

    Areas of concern

    • Private consumption is likely to contract in the second half of the year: While the pace of contraction is expected to be marginal, the slowdown in spending could be due to either the exhaustion of pent-up demand or the lagged impact of a tighter monetary policy.
    • Exports growth likely to grow: As per the estimates, exports are likely to grow at almost 12 per cent in the second half of the year. This is at odds with recent data which showed that export growth has actually slowed down considerably as advanced economies have come under pressure.
    • Agriculture growth likely to slow down: Agricultural growth is expected to slow down in the second half. As per some analysts this is not in sync with the healthy sowing rates and reservoir levels.
    • Manufacturing will go upward: The manufacturing sector, which was almost flat in the first half of the year, is expected to witness an uptick in the second half. It is difficult to reconcile this with the view that both domestic demand and exports are likely to remain subdued, which would in turn impact industrial production.
    • Government spending will remain almost flat: Public administration, defence and other services, which largely connotes government spending, is expected to remain more or less flat in the second half. This is odd considering that government consumption expenditure is pegged to grow at 7.2 per cent during the period.

    growth

    As the data is not yet concrete, estimates made are likely to change

    • As the first advance estimates suffer from data limitations, they are based only on seven to eight months of data these are likely to change once more data is available.
    • However, they do provide some sense of underlying momentum in economic activities, and are useful in the context of the upcoming Union budget.
    • The last budget had assumed a nominal GDP growth of 11.1 per cent. However, as per the latest estimates, nominal GDP is expected to grow at a significantly higher pace of 15.4 per cent.

    Conclusion

    • Along with trends in tax collections as per which the government’s revenues will surpass budgeted targets by a significant margin, these growth estimates only increase the likelihood of the Centre meeting its budgeted fiscal deficit target for the year.

    Mains question

    Q. As per the first advance estimates of national income released by the National Statistical Office, Indian economy is expected to grow at 7 per cent in 2022-23. In light of this discuss some of the latest projections and the areas of concern for Indian economic growth.

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  • Antimicrobial resistance (AMR): The silent health catastrophe

    microbial

    Context

    • Antimicrobial resistance (AMR), often also called antibiotic resistance, is a global health challenge and a looming public health crisis. The WHO has declared it as one of the top 10 health threats facing humanity.

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    What is antimicrobial resistance (AMR)?

    • AMR is the ability of a microorganism (like bacteria, viruses, and some parasites) to stop and survive exposure to an antimicrobial (such as antibiotics, antivirals and antimalarials) from working against it. As a result, standard treatments become ineffective, infections persist and may spread to others.

    How AMR occurs?

    • Improper use of antimicrobials: Antimicrobials, chemicals or molecules that kill harmful bugs, are the backbone of modern medicine. Improperly used antimicrobials create selective pressure on bugs.
    • Resilient bugs survive the exposure to antimicrobials: The bugs most vulnerable to the drugs die quickly, while the most resilient ones survive, replicate and become superbugs. AMR occurs when superbugs develop and antimicrobials stop working.
    • For example: Microorganisms (bugs) are everywhere with some being helpful like the yoghurt-making lactobacillus and some being harmful like the typhoid-causing salmonella.

    What are superbugs?

    • Microorganisms that become resistant to most antimicrobials are often referred to as superbugs.
    • Superbugs makes medical procedures such as organ transplantation, cancer chemotherapy, and other major surgeries very risky.

    microbial

    Interesting fact

    • Research has shown that the use of certain types of antimicrobials in animal feed can lead to the development of antimicrobial-resistant bacteria in food-producing animals.
    • These resistant bacteria can then be transmitted to humans through the food supply, leading to the spread of AMR.

    microbial

    Prescription to reduce and potentially reverse AMR

    • The first prescription is prevention: Disease prevention and wellness are key to public health and thus preventing infections whenever and wherever possible is equivalent to averting resistance. We need to spearhead sanitation drives, ensure a clean water supply and support hospital-driven infection-control programmes.
    • Judicious prescription of antimicrobials: Reducing AMR also requires prescribing antimicrobials judiciously and only when they are absolutely needed.
    • Effective coordination and management: There is also a need for more cohesion within management strategies. Coordination across the animal industry and environmental sectors to prevent the unnecessary use of antibiotics in farms these nurtures drug-resistant organisms in our food supply is necessary.
    • Robust surveillance systems to detect resistant pathogens of all kinds: Other prescription closely connected with prevention is the development of robust surveillance systems that allow us to detect resistant pathogens of all kinds in the environment and hospitals that would eventually allow containment.
    • Heavy investment in research and development: There is an urgent need for a strong pipeline of new antibiotics; an essential component in restoring the balance and ensuring that we have new tools in the fight against AMR. Bringing a new antibiotic from basic research through clinical trials takes more than a decade and requires upward of $1 billion. So there is need to invest heavily in research and development through both government and private funding.
    • New financial incentives to make it profitable keeping in mind the social value: Profits on these drugs are negligible. Hence, there is need to formulate new types of financial incentives to measure return on investment and measure profitability by the social value of the antibiotic, breaking the conventional link between sales and profits.
    • Bringing in the collective moral vision: Last but not least, we need to bring a collective moral vision to AMR and start thinking of antibiotic/antimicrobial drugs as limited resources that should be available to all.

    microbial

    Conclusion

    • Although seemingly distant and abstract, AMR is in the air and potentially catastrophic for those burdened by it. The success of modern medicine, women’s health, infectious diseases, surgery and cancer would be at increased risk for lack of working antimicrobials. The cost of AMR to the economy is significant and it is critical to develop policies and implement them through a holistic One Health approach.

    Mains question

    Q. What is Antimicrobial Resistance (AMR)? Given that AMR is an impending health disaster, discuss what measures can be taken to reduce AMR?

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  • Centre seeks 6 more months to frame CAA rules

    The Union Home Ministry has sought another extension of 6 months to frame the rules of the Citizenship (Amendment) Act, 2019 (CAA), without which it cannot be implemented.

    Why in news?

    • This is the seventh such extension sought by the Ministry.
    • The legislation is contentious issue in West Bengal.
    • The Act is aimed at giving citizenship to the Matua community in West Bengal who trace their origins to present day Bangladesh.

    What is Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA), 2019?

    • The act is sought to amend the Citizenship Act, 1955 to make Hindu, Sikh, Buddhist, Jain, Parsi, and Christian illegal migrants from Afghanistan, Bangladesh, and Pakistan, eligible for citizenship of India.
    • In other words, it intends to make it easier for non-Muslim immigrants from India’s three Muslim-majority neighbours to become citizens of India.
    • Under The Citizenship Act, 1955, one of the requirements for citizenship by naturalization is that the applicant must have resided in India during the last 12 months, as well as for 11 of the previous 14 years.
    • The amendment relaxes the second requirement from 11 years to 6 years as a specific condition for applicants belonging to these six religions, and the aforementioned three countries.
    • It exempts the members of the six communities from any criminal case under the Foreigners Act, 1946 and the Passport Act, 1920 if they entered India before December 31, 2014.

    Key feature: Defining illegal migrants

    • Illegal migrants cannot become Indian citizens in accordance with the present laws.
    • Under the CAA, an illegal migrant is a foreigner who: (i) enters the country without valid travel documents like a passport and visa, or (ii) enters with valid documents, but stays beyond the permitted time period.
    • Illegal migrants may be put in jail or deported under the Foreigners Act, 1946 and The Passport (Entry into India) Act, 1920.

    Exceptions

    • The Bill provides that illegal migrants who fulfil four conditions will not be treated as illegal migrants under the Act.  The conditions are:
    1. they are Hindus, Sikhs, Buddhists, Jains, Parsis or Christians;
    2. they are from Afghanistan, Bangladesh or Pakistan;
    3. they entered India on or before December 31, 2014;
    4. they are not in certain tribal areas of Assam, Meghalaya, Mizoram, or Tripura included in the Sixth Schedule to the Constitution, or areas under the “Inner Line” permit, i.e., Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram, and Nagaland.

    Controversy with the Act

    • Country of Origin: The Act classifies migrants based on their country of origin to include only Afghanistan, Pakistan and Bangladesh.
    • Other religious minorities ignored: It is unclear why illegal migrants from only six specified religious minorities have been included in the Act.
    • Defiance of purpose: India shares a border with Myanmar, which has had a history of persecution of a religious minority, the Rohingya Muslims.
    • Date of Entry: It is also unclear why there is a differential treatment of migrants based on their date of entry into India, i.e., whether they entered India before or after December 31, 2014.
    • Against the spirit of Secularism: Further, granting citizenship on the grounds of religion is seen to be against the secular nature of the Constitution which has been recognised as part of the basic structure that cannot be altered by Parliament.

    Conclusion

    • India is a constitutional democracy with a basic structure that assures a secure and spacious home for all Indians.
    • Being partitioned on religious grounds, India has to undertake a balancing act for protecting the religious minorities in its neighbourhood.
    • These minorities are under constant threat of persecution and vandalism.
    • India needs to balance its civilization duties to protect those who are prosecuted in the neighbourhood.

     

     

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  • PM launches Aspirational Block Programme

    aspirational

    Prime Minister has launched the government’s Aspirational Block Programme (ABP), which is aimed at improving the performance of blocks lagging on various development parameters.

    Aspirational Block Programme (ABP)

    • The Aspirational Blocks Programme is on the lines of the Aspirational District Programme that was launched in 2018 and covers 112 districts across the country.
    • The Centre had announced its intention to launch this initiative in the Union Budget 2022-23.
    • The programme will cover 500 districts across 31 states and Union Territories initially.
    • Over half of these blocks are in 6 states—Uttar Pradesh (68 blocks), Bihar (61), Madhya Pradesh (42), Jharkhand (34), Odisha (29) and West Bengal (29).
    • However, states can add more blocks to the programme later.

    About Aspirational Districts Programme (ADP)

    • Launched in January 2018, the ‘Transformation of Aspirational Districts’ initiative aims to remove this heterogeneity through a mass movement to quickly and effectively transform these districts.
    • The broad contours of the program are Convergence (of Central & State Schemes), Collaboration (of Central, State level ‘Prabhari’ Officers & District Collectors), and Competition among districts driven by a spirit of mass Movement.
    • With States as the main drivers, this program will focus on the strength of each district, identify low-hanging fruits for immediate improvement, measure progress, and rank districts.

    Behind the name

    • PM then negated the idea of naming any scheme based on their backwardness.
    • Rather the name ‘Aspirational’ presents a more affirmative action-based execution of the scheme.

    Selection of districts

    • A total of 117 Aspirational districts have been identified by NITI Aayog based upon composite indicators.
    • The objective of the program is to monitor the real-time progress of aspirational districts based on 49 indicators (81 data points) from the 5 identified thematic areas.

    Weightage has been accorded to these districts as below:

    • Health & Nutrition (30%)
    • Education (30%)
    • Agriculture & Water Resources (20%)
    • Financial Inclusion & Skill Development (10%)
    • Basic Infrastructure (10%)

    Strategy of the ADP

    The core Strategy of the program may be summarized as follows.

    • Making development a mass movement in these districts
    • Identify low hanging fruits and the strength of each district, to act as a catalyst
    • for development.
    • Measure progress and rank districts to spur a sense of competition.
    • Districts shall aspire to become State’s best to Nation’s best.

    Features of the ADP

    • It has transformed into a Jan Andolan.
    • The ADP is different in trying to monitor the improvement of these districts through real-time data tracking.
    • The programme seeks to develop convergence between selected existing central and state government programmes.
    • District performance in the public domain and experience building of the district bureaucracy is another notable feature.
    • The programme is targeted, not towards any single group of beneficiaries, but rather towards the population of the district as a whole.

    What makes this program special?

    The program reflects what has become of the development project in India under neoliberalism, especially after the end of planning.

    • Long overdue sectors have been given more emphasis.
    • It is not a tailor-made program with one-size-fit strategy. More onus has been laid on the districts. It has a district-intervention strategy.
    • It works on the principle of SWOT (strength, weakness, opportunity and threats) model and comparison with national best parameters for effective resource management.
    • It is the most reviewed programme by the Prime Minister.
    • A general idea behind the idea is that a good work never goes un-noticed. It is duly appreciated on social media as well as by the officials.

    Programmatic Strengths

    • A key strength of the ADP is the collection of baseline data and follow-ups at regular intervals.
    • Sustaining this effort would create a robust compilation of statistics for use by both researchers and policy-makers.
    • In doing this, the government also brings much-needed attention to human development and a willingness to meet the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
    • Incremental progress being made in the chosen districts as reflected in the rankings.
    • The programme also claims to be “non-partisan and unbiased” and geared towards all-India growth.
    • The selection of districts indeed suggests that the programme has not favored any bias either regional, political or any other.
    • The programme seeks convergence of central and state schemes anchored around specific activities.

    Issues with the programme

    • Using the case of Bihar, they argue that the programmes selection of districts itself is problematic.
    • In fact, it actually excludes the most backward districts because per capita income, the most basic measure of development, has not been considered.
    • There seems to be some ambiguity around the issue of whether the programme is concerned only with improved access or also with the quality of service provided.
    • The indicators used are not defined relationally, rather they are static human development indicators that do not see people mired in dynamic social relations.
    • It is also accused that the state is not making any new or focused public investment (except for possible use of Flexi-funds) into these districts, on the other hand, it is moralizing about their inability to improve (through rankings).
    • The programme is carrying the burden of proving the government’s “developmental” work without addressing any of the fundamental issues around achieving equitable development.
    • Yet, the NITI Aayog justifies the overall approach as capitalizing on “low-hanging fruit.”

    Way forward

    • The program has been able to make difference in the lives of citizens of India, in education, health, nutrition, financial inclusion, skill development and this has made a difference to some most backward and most geographically far-flung districts of the nation.
    • ADP is ‘aligned to the principle of “leave no one behind—the vital core of the SDGs. Political commitment at the highest level has resulted in the rapid success of the program the report said.
    • UNDP has recommended revising a few indicators that are slightly close to reaching their saturation or met by most districts like ‘electrification of households’ as an indicator of basic infrastructure.

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  • Living Root Bridges of Meghalaya

    This newscard is an excerpt from the original article published in TH.

    Living Root Bridges

    root

    • A living root bridge is a type of simple suspension bridge formed of living plant roots by tree shaping.
    • They are common in the southern part of the Northeast Indian state of Meghalaya. Such a bridge is locally called jingkieng jri.
    • They are handmade from the aerial roots of rubber fig trees (Ficus elastic) by the Khasi and Jaintia peoples of the mountainous terrain along the southern part of the Shillong Plateau.
    • Most of the bridges grow on steep slopes of subtropical moist broadleaf forest between 50m and 1150m above sea level.

    Why is it so unique?

    • As long as the tree from which it is formed remains healthy, the roots in the bridge can naturally grow thick and strengthen.
    • New roots can grow throughout the tree’s life and must be pruned or manipulated to strengthen the bridge.
    • Once mature some bridges can have as many as 50 or more people crossing, and have a lifespan of up to 150 years.

     

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  • Ottanthullal Artform of Kerala

    ottanthullal

    A renowned folk artist has expressed his angst over the fading participation of students in Ottanthullal Artform.

    What is Ottanthullal?

    • Ottanthullal (or Thullal, in short) is recite-and-dance art-form of Kerala.
    • It was introduced in the 18th century by the famous Malayalam poet Kunchan Nambiar (1705 – 1770).
    • It is famous for its humour and social satire, and marked by its simplicity as opposed to more complex dance-forms like Kathakali and Koodiyattam.

    Unique features

    • Ottanthullal follows the classical principles of Natyasasthra (a treatise on art compiled in the 2nd century B.C.E).
    • It is enacted into three separate versions
    1. Ottanthullal
    2. Seethankan thullal
    3. Parayan thullal
    • The Ottanthullal is the most popular among the three varieties of Thullal.

    How is it performed?

    • The performance uses elaborate expressions and stories recited in verses to bring important mythological tales and stories to life.
    • The costume and makeup of the performer are similar to that of a Kathakali artist.
    • It is performed at temple festivals and cultural programmes.
    • The performer is supported by a singer who repeats the verses and is accompanied by an orchestra of mridangam or thoppimaddalam (percussions) and cymbals.

     

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  • Government Litigation

    cases

    Context

    • Much has been said about why we have a staggeringly high number of cases that constitute pendency or cases that are undecided in the court system. Pendency or cases pending in courts have been a source of agony for litigants, lawyers and judges alike. In 2018, the Law Commission of India, in its 230th report, noted that the government is the biggest litigant in the system.

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    Ratio: Number of Judges serving the population

    • India has 21 judges for every million people: India has a terribly low number of judges serving a very large population to be more precise, India has about 21 judges for every million people, as the government recently informed the Rajya Sabha.
    • Comparatively in China: China has about 159 judges for every million people.

    What is cause of concern for the government?

    • Pendency impacts governance and weakens law and order: It is a cause of concern for the government since an arduous dispute resolution system adversely impacts governance and weakens law and order in any country.
    • Government is the largest litigant: Our government has been seized by the burdens of the justice system for long, and is acutely aware of its own role in contributing to the number of cases that enter the courts and remain to be decided.

    Efforts taken by the Government to reduce its litigation

    • Government is well aware: The government has been cognisant of its role in contributing to litigation simply by being the biggest litigator in the courts.
    • Action plan in response to large number of Government litigation: On June 13, 2017, the department of justice of the Government of India, released an Action Plan to reduce Government Litigation. The action plan was in response to the fact that 46 per cent of the total pending cases in the court system pertains to the government.
    • Legal Information Management Briefing System (LIMBS): In 2015, they started the rather aptly named LIMBS project that intends to connect 55 ministries and their departments for litigation management. Aptly named, for it seeks to connect the various limbs of governance of our state. As on January 3, LIMBS shows that there are 6,20,000 cases involving the government pending before the court system.
    • National Litigation Policy (NLP), 2010: The status report to the NLP, 2010, was prepared because it is based on the recognition that the government and its various agencies are the predominant litigants in the courts and tribunals in the country. And, hence, it aimed to transform the government into an efficient and responsible litigant.

    Is all its litigation is initiated by the government?

    • To be fair to the government, not all its litigation is initiated by it.
    • For instance, the government is the catalyst in inter-departmental litigation (between wings of the government) and routine appeals in service matters.
    • However, citizens trigger writ jurisdiction of the courts and file appeals in criminal cases. These also constitute a segment of cases involving the government being heard at various high courts and the Supreme Court.
    • So, while the government can control some of the litigation it is involved in, it is not the catalyst in certain classes of cases that involve it.

    Way ahead

    • Insights provided by the Vidhi Centre: The Vidhi Centre for Legal Policy in its report on Government Litigation published in 2018, provides great insights into where the government can and cannot control the litigation it is party to.
    • Where Government control its litigation: For instance, the government’s 2010 National Litigation Policy (NLP) recognises that service matters should not be normally appealed and only cases which involve questions of constitutional interpretation should be pursued all the way till the Supreme Court. The government should implement this reform suggested by its own policymakers.
    • Reasons to reduce the litigation: There are many good reasons to reduce litigation that involves the government. Reducing the burden on the courts is a prime reason. As Vidhi 2018 notes, the costs involved in pursuing litigation eat into public funds. And a court battle between the individual and the state is also a battle of unequals.

    Conclusion

    • What we need to address the overburdened court system is for the largest litigant to use the court system more efficiently and cautiously. This would be a tremendous start to addressing the problem of pendency. Appointing more judges would be a massive step to helping more dispute resolution as well.

    Mains question

    Q. Pendency of cases haunts Indian judiciary for a very long time. While there are multiple reasons for pendency, it is said that Government is the largest Litigant discuss. Enlist what efforts are taken by the government to reduce its litigation?

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  • RBI to issue first-ever Sovereign Green Bonds

    green bond

    The RBI would issue Sovereign Green Bonds (SGrBs) in two tranches of ₹8,000 crore each on January 25 and February 9.

    What are Sovereign Green Bonds?

    • A bond is an instrument to raise debt.
    • Since 2007, a market for bonds specifically self-labelled or designated as ‘green’ has emerged.
    • This label differentiates a green bond from a regular bond, which signifies a commitment to exclusively use funds raised to finance or re-finance “green” projects, assets, or business activities.
    • When these bonds carry guarantees related to the repayment of principal and payment of interest by the sovereign or the government, they are called sovereign green bonds (SGrB).

    How are the projects for green bonds selected?

    • A project is classified “green” on the basis of four key principles. These include-
    1. Encouraging energy efficiency in resource utilisation
    2. Reducing carbon emissions and greenhouse gases
    3. Promoting climate resilience and
    4. Improving natural ecosystems and biodiversity, especially in accordance with SDG (Sustainable Development Goals).

    When is the first sovereign green bond likely to be issued? 

    • In her Budget speech early this year, Finance Minister announced that sovereign green bonds will be issued for mobilising resources for green infrastructure.
    • The proceeds will be deployed in public sector projects that help in reducing the carbon intensity of the economy.
    • These green bonds would be available in 5-year and 10-year tenure.

    How are they different from conventional government bonds?

    • Government bonds or government securities (G-Secs) are normally categorised into two — Treasury Bills and dated or long-term securities.
    • These bonds carry coupon rates and are tradable in the securities market.
    • SGrB is one form of dated security. It will have a tenor and interest rate.
    • Money raised through SGrB is part of overall government borrowing.

    Who are likely to be the buyers of these bonds? 

    • Both domestic and international investors are expected to be interested in SGrB.
    • However, one thinking is foreign investors may be slightly hesitant due to currency risk.

     

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  • Kuki-Chin Refugees Issue

    kuki chin

    As another round of refugee crisis brews on the Mizoram-Bangladesh border, several members of the Kuki-Chin community were “pushed back” by the Border Security Force (BSF).

    Who are the Kuki Chins?

    • The Chins of Myanmar, the Mizos of Mizoram and the Kukis of Bangladesh are of the same ancestry and belong to the Kuki ethnic group native to the Mizo hills.
    • They are collectively called the Zo people.
    • The Kuki Chin people are settled in the Chittagong Hill Tracts, the only extensive hill area in Bangladesh that lies in the southeastern part of the country.
    • It borders Myanmar on the southeast, Tripura on the north, Mizoram on the east and the Chittagong district in the west.
    • Mizoram shares a 318-km stretch of international border with Bangladesh.

    Why are they fleeing to Mizoram?

    • Already, since 2021, around 30,000 Kuki Chin refugees from Myanmar have sought shelter in Mizoram.
    • They have been escaping the crackdown by the military junta in Myanmar and identity-loss in Bangladesh.

    Roots of their insurgency

    • The roots of Kuki militancy lie in conflicts of ethnic identity.
    • First was the demand for self-determination solely for groups belonging to their ethnic fabric, meaning the dream to form a Kukiland.
    • The second reason for insurgency lies in the inter-community conflicts between the Kukis and the Nagas in Manipur.
    • The Kuki-Naga conflict was started over securing identity and land as some Kuki-inhabited areas coincided with Naga-inhabited areas.
    • Wanting to dominate trade and cultural activities in those areas the two communities often engaged in violent standoffs, with villages being torched, civilians killed and so on.

    What is India’s Stand?

    • The authorities are prepared to handle the inflow.
    • India would be extending help and shelter to the refugees coming in from Bangladesh on humanitarian ground.
    • A meeting of the Mizoram Cabinet decided to provide temporary shelter, food and medicine to the refugees who have already crossed over.

     

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  • Underwater combat drones: Indian Navy’s readiness

    combat

    Context

    • India is on a drive to induct unmanned combat systems into the military. Months after the Indian Army announced the induction of swarm drones into its mechanized forces, the Navy chief, Admiral R Hari Kumar, reiterated the importance of autonomous systems in creating a future-proof Indian Navy (IN).

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    combat

    Indian Navy’s expanding surveillance and reasons for doing so

    • The IN, indeed, has been on a mission to expand surveillance in India’s near-seas: Two years after it leased MQ-9B Sea Guardian drones from the US, the navy, in July 2022, released an unclassified version of its unmanned roadmap for the induction of remote autonomous platforms including undersea vehicles.
    • Maritime deterrence in the Eastern Indian Ocean: A key driver for the enterprise is underwater domain awareness, deemed an increasingly vital component of maritime deterrence in the Eastern Indian Ocean.
    • Chinas undersea presence in the Indian ocean: In the aftermath of the conflict in Ladakh in June 2020, there is a growing sense among Indian experts and military planners that China’s undersea presence in the Indian Ocean is on the cusp of crossing a critical threshold.
    • Recent reports of sighting of Chinese drones in the waters of Indonesia: Recent reports of the sighting of Chinese drones in the waters off Indonesian islands suggest the Peoples Liberation Army Navy has been studying the operating environment of the Indian Ocean.
    • China already deployed vessels around Andaman in the name of research: Already, there has been a rise in the deployment of Chinese research and survey vessels in the waters around India’s Andaman and Nicobar Islands.
    • Recognizing the threat, Indian Navy sought acquire to own AUV: Ever more alive to the dangers posed by foreign undersea presence in Indian waters, the IN sought to acquire its own autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) with twin surveillance and strike capabilities.

    Analysis: The navy’s interest in armed underwater drones

    • Underwater vehicles never viewed as warfighting assets: Despite being widely used in underwater search and exploration, underwater vehicles have never quite been viewed as warfighting assets by India’s military establishment.
    • Never sought deploying underwater drones in combat roles: Notwithstanding the AUVs’ utility in tasks such as mine detection and ship survey, India’s naval planners have traditionally desisted from deploying undersea drones in a combat role.
    • Acknowledging war fighting capabilities and need of the hour: Indian analysts and decision-makers seem to be belatedly acknowledging the warfighting abilities of underwater autonomous platforms powered by artificial intelligence (AI).
    • Getting ready for the new era warfare: With the fourth industrial revolution (4IR) shaping a new era in warfare, Indian observers are beginning to recognise the likely impact of disruptive technologies on the maritime domain. AI powered by deep learning, data analytics, and cloud computing, many say, is poised to alter the maritime battlefront, potentially triggering a revolution in naval affairs in India.

    Challenges to harness the disruptive technologies in maritime combat

    • Ethical paradox: There is an ethical paradox that typifies artificially intelligent combat systems.
    • Imported AI tech algorithms cannot be under user control: Despite rendering warfare more deadly, AI compromises the control, safety, and accountability of weapon systems it also enhances the risk of shared liability between networked systems, particularly when weapon algorithms are sourced from abroad, and when the satellite and link systems that enable combat solutions are not under the control of the user.
    • Predisposition of data in AI can undermine the decision making: AI is characterised by a predisposition to certain kinds of data. Biases in the collection of data, in the set of instructions for data analysis, and in the selection of probabilistic outcomes muddle rational decision-making, undermining confidence in automated combat solutions.
    • The doctrinal paradox is equally troubling: There is no easy way of incorporating AI-fuelled warfighting approaches into doctrine, particularly when many technologies are in a nascent stage of development, and there is little clarity about how effective AI could be in combat.
    • Capacity limitation that restricts the development of AI: While technology absorption in the navy has matured in certain areas over a period of time, a large gap still exists in the development of critical technologies, which are system engineering, airborne and underwater sensors, weapon systems, and hi-tech components.

    The critics of AI in warfare

    • Technology without comprehensive testing is risky: That fielding nascent technologies without comprehensive testing puts both military personnel and civilians at risk.
    • Probabilistic assessment by computers not always provide optimal solution: A system of targeting human beings based on probabilistic assessments by computers that act merely on machine-learned experiences, is problematic because the computer neither has access to all relevant data to make an informed decision nor recognizes that it needs more information to come up with an optimal solution.
    • Shaping policy to account for AI is challenging: That is because military doctrine is premised on a traditional understanding of conflict. If war is a normative construct, then there are rules and codes to be followed, and ethical standards to be met.
    • AI could be inconsistent with the laws of war: What is more, AI seemingly automates weapon systems in ways that are inconsistent with the laws of war.

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    Legality issues of underwater combat drones

    • Status by UNCLOS is not yet clear: It is not yet clear if unmanned maritime systems enjoy the status of ships under the UN convention of the laws of the sea; even if they do, it is unlikely that they can be classified as warships.

    Way ahead

    • Notwithstanding the announcement of multiple AI projects, the navy remains focused on using AI in noncombat activities such as training, logistics, inventory management, maritime domain awareness, and predictive maintenance.
    • India’s maritime managers recognize that the IN is still at a place on its evolutionary curve where incorporating AI in combat systems could prove risky. An incremental approach, many believe, is the best way forward.

    Conclusion

    • It is worth acknowledging that AI in warfare is not just a matter of combat effectiveness but also of warfighting ethics. AI-infused unmanned systems on the maritime battlefront pose a degree of danger, making it incumbent upon the military to deploy its assets in ways that are consistent with national and international law. India’s naval leadership would do well if it takes careful and calculated steps in developing AI-powered underwater systems.