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GS Paper: GS3-19.Disaster and Disaster Management.

  • Global Risks Report 2020

    The top five risks to humanity are recently published in the Global Risks Report of the World Economic Forum (WEF).

    Top five risks

    • An important finding of the report is that today’s younger generation, consisting of “Millenials” born after 1980 have ranked environmental risks higher than other older respondents in the short- and long-terms.
    • According to the report, the top five risks by likelihood over the next decade are:
    1. Extreme weather events like floods and storms
    2. Failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation
    3. Major natural disasters like earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions and geomagnetic storms
    4. Major biodiversity losses and ecosystem collapse
    5. Human-made environmental damage and disasters

    Top 5 risks by severity of impact over the next 10 years

    • Failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation
    • Weapons of mass destruction
    • Major biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse
    • Extreme weather events (e.g. floods, storms, etc.)
    • Water crises

    Top most strongly connected global risks

    • Extreme weather events + failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation
    • Large-scale cyber-attacks + breakdown of critical information infrastructure and networks
    • High structural unemployment or underemployment + adverse consequences of technological advances
    • Major biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse + failure of climate change mitigation and adaptation
    • Food crises + extreme weather events

    Other risks

    • The report also warned about the increasing economic and societal costs due to non-communicable diseases and the lack of research on vaccines and drug resistance to address the threat of pandemics in the recent future.
    • “Economic confrontations” and “domestic political polarization” are significant short-term risks in 2020, the report said.
    • This is a warning for the global South including India and Africa where social unrest has seen a rise. For example, unrest has grown among India’s youth.

  • [op-ed of the day] Weathering the storm

    Context

    State of Climate of India report by IMD should occasion interventions to make people resilient to extreme weather events.

    What does the report confirm?

    • Frequent extreme weather events: The report states that extreme weather events have become par for the course in the country.
    • The report notes that excessive heat, cold and rainfall killed 1,562 people during the year.
    • Intense dry spells, even droughts, were interspersed with floods in several parts of the country
    • Above normal temperature:  The mean temperature last year was 0.36 above normal.
    • The excess rainfall: The country also recorded excess rainfall during both the southwest and northeast monsoons.

    Long-term meteorological trends:

    • The IMD report should be seen in conjunction with long-term meteorological trends.
    • The warmest decade: The World Meteorological Organisation reckons that the decade starting 2011 remains on track to be the warmest on record.
    • Increase in the relative humidity: At the same time, data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecast shows that the relative humidity in the mid-troposphere in the Subcontinent has increased by about 2 percent in the past four decades.
    • Such warming has increased the capacity of oceans to form intense cyclonic disturbances.

    Implications for disaster-preparedness:

    • Cyclones: Last year, as the IMD report notes, the Indian Ocean witnessed eight cyclones.
    • Cyclones don’t kill but buildings can turn hazardous during such extreme weather events.
    • The vulnerability of the poor: In Odisha winds blowing at more than 140 kilometers per hour ripped off roofs and window frames in modern houses and also exposed the vulnerability of the mud and bamboo houses of the poor.
    • Guidelines: The Ministry of Housing and Urban Affairs does have guidelines for climate-friendly construction.
    • But planners in coastal cities and towns rarely pay heed to its provisions.
    • Cooperation between the states: The changing dynamics of weather also demands cooperation between states that share a river basin.
    • Maharashtra and Karnataka bickered over opening the gates of the Almatti dam on the Krishna.

    Implications for the farmers:

    • For farmers, vagaries in nature mean disruptions in the entire cropping cycle.
    • This year, Kerala, southern Karnataka, and Gujarat were heavily deficient till July.
    • But within a few days in the last week of July, these states recorded surplus rainfall.
    • Rainwater storage and use: Increasing their resilience calls for efficient rainwater storage and use.

    Conclusion:

    It’s clear that dealing with exceptional weather will require interventions at the national, state and local levels. The Statement on Climate of India 2019 drives home the urgency of such interventions.

  • Forest Fires