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GS Paper: Issues relating growth and development, employment

  • Kurzarbeit Scheme

    Amid the all-round disruption caused to the economy by the novel coronavirus outbreak, a concern across the world is the possibility of a loss of jobs. Various governments have unveiled various measures to address such concerns, and one of the most talked-about is Kurzarbeit.

    Kurzarbeit Scheme

    • Kurzarbeit is German for “short-work”.
    • The policy provides for a short-time work allowance, called kurzarbeitgeld, which partially compensates for lost earnings during uncertain economic situations.
    • The policy was rolled out during the 2008 economic crisis while its origins date back as far as the early 20th century, before and after World War I.

    How it works?

    • When companies face a loss of earnings due to unforeseen economic situations, they often need to cut back on their working hours or send some of their employees’ home.
    • It aims to address workers who are impacted by the loss of income due to shortened work hours during such times.
    • They can apply for short-term work benefits under the scheme, with the government stepping in to pay employees a part of their lost income.

    Quantum of payment

    • Payment under Kurzarbeit is calculated on the basis of a net loss of earnings.
    • As per Germany’s Federal Agency for Work, short-time employees generally receive about 60 per cent of the flat-rate net wage.
    • In case there is at least one child in the house of the short-time worker, he/she receives 67 per cent of the flat-rate net wage.

    Benefits

    • This scheme helps the companies retain their employees instead of laying them off, and allows the latter to sustain themselves for a period of up to 12 months.

  • Count work, not workers

    Context

    India is one of the few countries in the world where women’s work participation rates have fallen sharply — from 29 per cent in 2004-5 to 22 per cent in 2011-12 and to 17 per cent in 2017-18.

    What could be the possible explanations for the decline?

    • No consensus among economists: Trying to explain whether women are choosing to focus on domestic responsibilities or whether they are pushed out of the workforce has become a minor industry among economists.
    • Can the quality of data be the explanation? Strangely, the one explanation we have not looked at is whether the declining quality of economic statistics may account for this trend.
      • Our pride in the statistical system built by PC Mahalanobis is so great that we find it unimaginable that it could fail to provide us with reliable employment data.
      • However, as challenges to economic statistics have begun to emerge in such diverse areas as GDP data and consumption expenditure, perhaps it is time to consider the unimaginable.
      • Issue of data collection: Is the decline in women’s labour force participation real or is it a function of the way in which employment data are collected?

    Anatomy of the decline in participation rates

    • Driven by rural women: The anatomy of the decline in women’s work participation rates shows that it is driven by rural women.
    • Data of the prime working-age group: In the prime working-age group (25-59)-
      • Urban area data: Urban women’s worker to population ratios (WPR) fell from 28 per cent to 25 per cent between 2004-5 and 2011-12, stagnating at 24 per cent in 2017-18.
      • Rural area data: However, compared to these modest changes, rural women’s WPR declined sharply from 58 per cent to 48 per cent and to 32 per cent over the same period.
    • Among rural women, the largest decline seems to have taken place in women categorised as unpaid family helpers — from 28 per cent in 2004-5 to 12 per cent in 2017-18.
      • This alone accounts for more than half of the decline in women’s WPR. The remaining is largely due to a drop of about 9 percentage points in casual labour.
    • In contrast, women counted as focusing solely on domestic duties increased from 21 per cent to 45 per cent.

    What are the explanations for this massive change?

    • Data collection issue: It is the change in our statistical systems that drives these results.
      • Change of workforce collecting data: The questionnaires through which the National Statistical Office (NSO) collects employment data have not changed, but the statistical workforce has, and the surveys that performed reasonably well in the hands of seasoned interviewers are too complex for poorly trained contract data collectors.
    • How data is collected? The National Sample Surveys (NSS) do not have a script that the interviewer reads out. They have schedules that must be completed. The interviewer is trained in concepts to be investigated and then left to fill the schedules to the best of his or her ability.
      • The NSS increasingly relies on contract investigators hired for short periods, who lack
    • Need for redesigning the surveys: Do we need to return to the days of permanent employees or can we design our surveys to overcome errors committed by relatively inexperienced interviewers?
      • A survey design experiment led by Neerad Deshmukh at the NCAER-National Data Innovation Centre provides an intriguing solution.
      • In this experimental survey, interviewers first asked about the primary and secondary activity status of each household member, mimicking the NSS structure.
      • They then asked a series of simple questions that included ones like, “do you cultivate any land?” If yes, “who in your household works on the farm?”
      • Similar questions were asked about livestock ownership and about people caring for the livestock, ownership of petty business and individuals working in these enterprises.
    • What was the result of survey experiment: The results show that the standard NSS-type questions resulted in a WPR of 28 per cent for rural women in the age group 21-59, whereas the detailed activity listing found a WPR of 42 per cent — for the same women.
      • This is an easily implementable module that does not require specialised knowledge on the part of the interviewer.

    Identifying the sectors from which women are excludes

    • Missing the identification of sector: In our concern with ostensibly declining women’s work participation, we have missed out on identifying sectors from which women are excluded and more importantly, in which women are included.
    • What data for men indicate? For rural men, ages 25-59, between 2004-5 and 2017-18, casual labour declined by about 6 percentage points.
      • However, this decline is counterbalanced by regular salaried work which increased by 4 percentage points.
      • Thus, it seems likely that men are exchanging precarious employment with higher-quality jobs.
    • What data for women indicate? In contrast, women’s casual work has declined by 9 percentage points while their regular salaried work increased by a mere 1 percentage point.
      • Moreover, the usual route to success, gaining formal education, has little impact on women’s ability to obtain paid work.
    • The explanation for the disparity: Rural men with a secondary level of education have options like working as a postman, driver or mechanic — few such opportunities are open to women.
      • It is not surprising that women with secondary education have only half the work participation rate compared to their uneducated sisters.
    • Takeaway: The focus on employment for women needs to be on creating high-quality employment rather than getting preoccupied with declining employment rates.

    Conclusion

    It may be time for us to return to the recommendations of ‘Shramshakti: Report of National Commission on Self Employed Women and Women in the Informal Sector’ and develop our data collection processes from the lived experiences of women and count women’s work rather than women workers. Without this, we run the risks of developing misguided policy responses.

  • [pib] Employees’ Pension Scheme (Amendment) Scheme, 2020

    The Union Ministry of Labour & Employment has informed about the total enrollments under EPS.

    Employees Pension Scheme (EPS)

    • EPS is a social security scheme that was launched in 1995 and is facilitated by EPFO.
    • The scheme makes provisions for pensions for the employees in the organized sector after retirement at the age of 58 years.
    • Employees who are members of EPFO automatically become eligible for EPS.
    • Both employer and employee contribute 12% of employee’s monthly salary (basic wages plus dearness allowance) to the Employees’ Provident Fund (EPF) scheme.
    • EPF scheme is mandatory for employees who draw a basic wage of Rs. 15,000 per month.
    • Of the employer’s share of 12 %, 8.33 % is diverted towards the EPS.

    Features of the 2020 Amendment

    • EPS pensioners will get normal pension even after getting a reduced pension due to commutation.
    • On retirement, if the employee opts for commutation of pension, a portion is paid as a lump sum based on the commutation factor while on the balance the pension begins.
    • In simple terms, commutation means a lump sum payment in lieu of periodic payments of pension.
    • In such a case, the amount of pension will be lower than the amount of pension without any commutation.
    • The amendment seeks to restore the original amount of pension as per the commutation table, after 15 years equal to the same amount as it would have been without commutation.

  • Towards a new world order

    Context

    Social inequalities and the grim problems of stark and continuing poverty are at the epicentre of the new world.

    The ugly face of capitalism and growing inequalities

    • The concentration of the health: The latest Oxfam Report presented at Davos points out that 2,153 billionaires have more wealth than 4.6 billion people.
    • Rising poverty: The emergence of billionaires and oligarchs in different parts of the world coincides with increased poverty among the already poor people, especially children.
    • Concept of stakeholder’s capitalism: These realities make observers question the tenability of stakeholder capitalism as a concept.
    • Faults in the capitalism on display in 2008: The ugliest face of this capitalism was visible during the 2007-2008 economic crisis, first in the U.S. and thereafter across the European Union.
      • At that time, it appeared as if the global economy was on the verge of collapse.

    Intensification of energy use and sustainability

    • The relation between growth and energy: One of the chief characteristics of economic development is the intensification of energy use.
      • There is an unprecedented concentration of high energy density in all economic development strategies.
    • Use of non-renewable sources: The bulk of the energy continues to be generated from non-renewable sources.
    • Developing world capturing energy-generating sources: The developed world’s, and China’s, central objective is to capture energy-generating resources from across continents and put them to use to push GDP growth to greater heights.
      • In the process, sustainability is becoming a casualty.
    • Higher waste generation: The higher the use of energy, the larger the amount of waste generated. Entropy, like time, is always unidirectional, it only goes forward.

    Disposal of e-waste

    • High energy consumption and disposal of waste: Egregious consumption of energy by the developed world has been accompanied by the disposal of residual products (‘e-waste’) on the shores of many African and Asian countries.
    • Impact on the developing world: As a result of the disposal, the poor in the developing world are, unwittingly, drawn and exposed to toxic, hazardous materials like lead, cadmium and arsenic.
      • Hence, the ‘globalisation’ phenomenon has turned out to be nothing other than the exploitation of the developing world, with most countries being treated as a source of cheap labour and critical raw material.

    Unfairness involved in the Globalisation

    • Increasing consumption in the developing world: Countries in the developed world, and China, are ferociously using up finite raw materials without care or concern for the welfare of present and future generations.
    • Bright and the dark side of the development: Certainly, there has been significant technological progress which has brought about a revolution in the fields of healthcare and communications, but there is also a dark side to this.
    • System loaded in the favour of the rich: High expenses and Intellectual Property Rights load the system further in favour of the rich.
      • Pernicious system of carbon credit: To demonstrate how unfair the system is, one can look at the pernicious plan to set up a carbon credit system.
      • Under this, countries with high energy consumption trends can simply offset their consumption patterns by purchasing carbon credits, the unutilised carbon footprint, from poor developing countries.

    Understanding the Nordic Economic Model

    • ‘Nordic Economic Model’: It pertains to the remarkable achievements of the Scandinavian countries comprising Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Sweden, Norway, and allied territories. They also have-
      • Large public sector enterprises.
      • Extensive and generous universal welfare systems.
      • High levels of taxation.
      • And considerable state involvement in promoting and upholding welfare states.
      • Among the happiest countries: UN reports also indicate that the Nordic countries are the happiest countries in the world. The U.S., in contrast, is in 19th place.
      • The total population of the Nordic countries is estimated at almost 27 million people.
      • Among the richest countries: These nations are among the richest in the world when measured in terms of GDP per capita.

    Enlightened Global Order

    • Taking the Nordic model as a template, there are some ingredients that could be part of a new ‘enlightened global order’.
    • What does the Global Order include? These should include-
      • Effective welfare safety nets for all.
      • Corruption-free governance.
      • A fundamental right to tuition-free education including higher education.
      • And a fundamental right to good medical care.
      • Shutting of tax havens.
      • Tax structure: In Nordic countries, personal and corporate income tax rates are very high, especially on the very rich. If a just, new world order is to arise, taxes everywhere should go up.
    • Holding companies responsible: When it comes to the corporate sector, there are some new perspectives.
      • Changing the parameters of profit: In traditional business accounting, ‘bottom line’ refers to the financial year’s profit or loss earned or incurred by the company on pure financial parameters.
      • The four ‘Ps’: Following vigorous debates, a new format has emerged under which a company’s performance is measured through four ‘Ps’.
      • The first is ‘P’ for ‘profit’.
      • The second ‘P’ is for people — how the company’s actions impact not only employees but society as a whole.
      • The third ‘P’ is for the planet — are the company’s actions and plans sensitive to the environment?
      • The fourth ‘P’ is for purpose, which means the companies and individuals must develop a larger purpose than ‘business as usual’. They must ask: what is the larger purpose of the company, apart from generating profits?
      • Using performance in terms of four ‘P’s: Using big data and text analytics, a company’s performance can be measured in terms of all the four ‘P’s and a corporate entity can be thus held accountable. Market capitalisation need not be the only way to measure the value of a company.

    Conclusion

    Much work is yet to be done to uplift the global economic order, but the important point is that new tools are now emerging. What is required is a global consensus and the will to make the planet more sustainable, so that all individuals can live with justice and equality, ensuring that not a single child is hungry or seriously unwell because of poverty or lack of affordable medical help.

     

     

     

     

  • Global Talent Competitiveness Index (GTCI) 2020

    What is the news: The Global Talent Competitiveness Index (GTCI) was recently published.

    Performance Analysis

    • India has climbed eight places to 72nd rank in the GTCI which was topped by Switzerland, the US and Singapore.
    • Sweden (4th), Denmark (5th), the Netherlands (6th), Finland (7th), Luxembourg (8th), Norway (9th) and Australia (10th) complete the top 10 league table.
    • In the BRICS grouping, China was ranked 42nd, Russia (48th), South Africa (70th) and Brazil at 80th position.
    • This year’s GTCI report explores how the development of AI is not only changing the nature of work but also forcing a re-evaluation of workplace practices, corporate structures and innovation ecosystems.

    About the GTCI report

    • It was started in 2013 and is an annual benchmarking report that measures the ability of countries to compete for talent, their ability to grow, attract and retain talent.
    • Theme for 2020 was ‘Global Talent in the Age of Artificial Intelligence’. It explores how the development of artificial intelligence (AI) is not only changing the nature of work but also forcing a re-evaluation of workplace practices, corporate structures and innovation ecosystems.
    • Inequality: The report noted that the gap between high income, talent-rich nations and the rest of the world is widening. More than half of the population in the developing world lack basic digital skills.
    • About GTCI Report: It is launched by INSEAD, a partner and sponsor of the United Nation’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Davos, Switzerland recently.
    • INSEAD is one of the world’s leading and largest graduate business schools with locations all over the world and alliances with top institutions.
    • The report, which measures countries based on six pillars:
    1. enable
    2. attract
    3. grow
    4. retain talent
    5. vocation and technical skills
    6. global knowledge skills

  • World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2020

    The report World Employment and Social Outlook: Trends 2020 (WESO) was recently released.

    About the Report

    • The WESO report is an initiative of the International Labour Organization (ILO).
    • ILO forecasts that unemployment will rise by about 2.5 million this year.
    • The ILO is a UN agency whose mandate is to advance social justice and promote decent work by setting international labour standards.
    • The report analyses key labour market issues, including unemployment, labour underutilization, working poverty, income inequality, labour income share and factors that exclude people from decent work.

    Highlights of the report

    • Global unemployment is projected to increase by around 2.5 million in 2020.
    • The number of people unemployed around the world stands at some 188 million.
    • In addition, 165 million people do not have enough paid work, and 120 million have either given up actively searching for work or otherwise lack access to the labour market.
    • In total, more than 470 million people worldwide are affected, the report said.
    • Almost half a billion people are working fewer paid hours than they would like or lack adequate access to paid work.
    • Not enough new jobs are being generated to absorb new entrants to the labour market.

    Data on working poverty

    • Currently working poverty (defined as earning less than USD 3.20 per day in purchasing power parity terms) affects more than 630 million workers, or one in five of the global working population.
    • Inequalities related to gender, age and geographical location continue to plague the job market, with the report showing that these factors limit both individual opportunity and economic growth.
    • Some 267 million young people aged 15-24 are not in employment, education or training, and many more endure substandard working condition.

  • [op-ed snap] Why ‘Make in India’ has failed

    Context

    Five years after its launch its appropriate time to take the stock of the progress made by ‘Make in India’.

    Three major objectives of the initiative

    • First- Manufacturing growth rate at 12-14 %: The first objective is to increase the manufacturing sector’s growth rate to 12-14% per annum in order to increase the sector’s share in the economy.
    • Second-100 million jobs: The second objective is to create 100 million additional manufacturing jobs in the economy by 2022.
    • Third-increase manufacturing’s contribution to GDP to 25%: The third objective is to ensure that the manufacturing sector’s contribution to GDP is increased to 25% by 2022 (revised to 2025) from the current 16%.

    Assessment of the progress made so far

    • As the policy changes were intended to usher growth in three key variables of the manufacturing sector — investments, output, and employment growth.
    • Progress on the investment front:
      • Slow growth: The last five years witnessed slow growth of investment in the economy.
      • This is more so when we consider capital investments in the manufacturing sector.
      • The decline in gross fixed capital formation: Gross fixed capital formation of the private sector declined to 28.6% of GDP in 2017-18 from 31.3% in 2013-14 (Economic Survey 2018-19).
      • Gross Fixed Capital Formation is the measure of aggregate investment.
      • Increase in private sector’s savings decrease in investment: Household savings have declined, while the private corporate sector’s savings have increased.
      • This is a scenario where the private sector’s savings have increased, but investments have decreased, despite policy measures to provide a good investment climate.
    • Progress on the output growth front:
      • Double-digit growth only in two quarters: The monthly index of industrial production (IIP) pertaining to manufacturing has registered double-digit growth rates only on two occasions during the period April 2012 to November 2019.
      • Below 3% for the most part: The data show that for a majority of the months, it was 3% or below and even negative for some months.
      • The negative growth implies a contraction of the sector.
    • Progress on the employment growth front:
      • No progress: The employment, especially industrial employment, has not grown to keep pace with the rate of new entries into the labour market.

    Problems with the policy

    • The initiative had two major lacunae.
    • First- Too much reliance on foreign capital: The bulk of these schemes relied too much on foreign capital for investments and global markets for produce.
      • This created an inbuilt uncertainty, as domestic production had to be planned according to the demand and supply conditions elsewhere.
    • Second-Lack of implementation: The policy implementers need to take into account the implications of implementation deficit in their decisions.
      • The result of such a policy oversight is evident in a large number of stalled projects in India.
      • The spate of policy announcements without having the preparedness to implement them is ‘policy casualness’.
      • ‘Make in India’ has been plagued by a large number of under-prepared initiatives.

    Three reasons why ‘Make in India’ failed to perform

    • Too-much ambitious goals: It set out too ambitious growth rates for the manufacturing sector to achieve.
      • Beyond capacity rate for the sector: An annual growth rate of 12-14% is well beyond the capacity of the industrial sector.
      • Overestimation of implementation capacity: To expect to build capabilities for such a quantum jump is perhaps an enormous overestimation of the implementation capacity of the government.
    • Dealing with too many sectors: The initiative brought in too many sectors into its fold.
      • Lack of policy focus: Bringing in too many sectors under its fold led to a loss of policy focus.
      • Lack of understanding of comparative advantages: Further, it was seen as a policy devoid of any understanding of the comparative advantages of the domestic economy.
    • Ill-timed launch
      • Given the uncertainties of the global economy and ever-rising trade protectionism, the initiative was spectacularly ill-timed.

    Conclusion

    • In order to revive the ‘Make in India’ there is a need to make necessary changes in the policy and root out the causes associated with the policy implementation.

     

     

     

     

     

     

  • Explained: First Advance Estimates (FAE)

    The First Advance Estimates (FAE) were recently released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI).

    The First Advance Estimates and their significance

    • The First Advance Estimates (FAE) extrapolate a variety of data, such as the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the financial performance of listed companies, first advance estimates of crop production etc., for the first 7 to 8 months to arrive at the annual figure.
    • The significance of the FAE is that this is the final bit of official data before the government presents its next Budget.
    • The sector-wise Estimates are obtained by extrapolation of indicators like-
    1. IIP of first 7 months of the financial year,
    2. financial performance of Listed Companies in the Private Corporate sector available upto quarter ending September, 2019
    3. 1st Advance Estimates of Crop production,
    4. accounts of Central & State Governments, information on indicators like Deposits & Credits, Passenger and Freight earnings of Railways, Passengers and Cargo handled by Civil Aviation, Cargo etc., available for first 8 months of the financial year”.

    Estimates for 2018-19

    • It estimated India’s GDP will grow by just 5 per cent in the current financial year (2019-20). Last financial year, 2018-19, the Indian economy grew at 6.8 per cent.
    • The gross value added (GVA), which maps the economic activity from the income side as against the GDP which maps it from the expenditure side, is expected to grow by 4.9 per cent in 2019-20 as against 6.6 per cent in 2018-19.

    Drivers of the GDP

    There are four main drivers of the GDP:

    • One, the private consumption expenditure – that is the expenditure that you and I make in our personal capacity. This category has grown by just 5.7 per cent in 2019-20 while it grew by 8 per cent last financial year.
    • The second driver is the expenditure made by the Government. This grew by 10.5 per cent, which is higher than the rate of growth (9.2 per cent) in the last financial year.
    • But the most disappointing number is the deceleration in business investments in the economy.
    • This driver, which is the key to sustainable long-term growth, grew by less than 1 per cent; last financial year it grew by 10 per cent.
    • This shows that while the private consumption demand is tepid, businesses have completely turned off the tap on new investments despite the government making a once-in-generation cut in corporate taxes.

    Performance in terms of GVA

    • The GVA data provides a detailed picture. Given that the overall GVA has decelerated sharply, almost all sectors have witnessed slower growth in economic activity.
    • Only “Public Administration, Defence and Other Services,“ which essentially measures how the government did, grew by 9.1 per cent.
    • All other sectors saw a GVA growth that was slower than the average growth in the last financial year.
    • The worst performing sectors are ‘Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing’, ‘Mining and Quarrying’, ‘Manufacturing’ and ‘Construction’, which are expected to see a GVA growth of 2.8 per cent, 1.5 per cent, 2.0 per cent and 3.2 per cent respectively.

    Back2Basics

    Real vs. Nominal GDP

    • GDP is the total market value of all goods and services produced in the economy during a particular year, inclusive of all taxes and subsidies on products.
    • The market value taken at current prices is the nominal GDP.
    • The value taken at constant prices — that is prices for all products taken at an unchanged base year (2011) — is the real GDP.
    • In simple terms, real GDP is nominal GDP stripped of inflation.
    • Real GDP growth thus measures how much the production of goods and services in the economy has increased in actual physical terms during a year.
    • Nominal GDP growth, on the other hand, is a measure of the increase in incomes resulting from rise in both production and prices.

  • Operation Twist

    Reserve Bank of India Governor has informed that the market’s reaction to Operation Twist was on expected lines.

    Operation Twist

    • The simultaneous buy-sell of government bonds, known as Operation Twist, was conducted to bring down long-term interest rate while allowing short term rates to inch up.
    • The move was aimed at addressing liquidity, which is assymetric — abundant at the shorter end but not on the longer end. The move will help in monetary transmission.
    • The central bank has so far carried out three rounds of simultaneous bond buy-and-sell via open market operations.

    For more reading, navigate to the page:

    https://www.civilsdaily.com/news/operation-twist/

  • Flagship Prelims 2018 Batch 1 & 2 | TS 19 January CA Discussion

    All aspirants who are giving tomorrow’s test should discuss all there doubts/queries about any question on this thread and not in the comments section of the test

    Around 20 questions of the test can be solved using Tikdam method

    Tikdams explanations in those selected questions are given in the explanation column itself

    By closely observing those questions after every test you will gradually learn the art of Tikdams which will assist you in clearing the UPSC prelims

    Highlights of tomorrow’s test:

     

    Q.1) The ‘Justice Srikrishna committee’, recently seen in news, is related to

    a) Transparency and accountability of Municipal Corporations

    b) Medical innovation in the Pharmaceutical Sector

    c) Data Protection Law

    d) Prompt corrective action (PCA)

     

    Q.2) Symbiodinium provides coral host with photosynthetic products in return for nutrients and shelter. The Symbiodinium is basically a/an

    a) Virus

    b) Amoeba

    c) Algae

    d) Macroscopic Animal

     

    Q.3) With reference to the ‘Ancient Monuments and Archaeological Sites and Remains (Amendment) Bill, 2017’ which of the following statements is/are correct?

    1. The Bill would allow the government to take up infrastructure projects within prohibited areas around protected monuments.

    2. The Bill introduces a definition for ‘public works’, which includes the construction of any infrastructure that is financed and carried out by the central government for public purposes.

    Select the correct answer using the codes given below

    a) Neither 1 nor 2

    b) 1 only

    c) 2 only

    d) Both 1 and 2

     

    Q.4) Which of the following about the Compensatory Afforestation Fund Management and Planning Authority (CAMPA) is incorrect?

    a) It is a fund created under an Act of the Government of India

    b) Currently, funds collected under CAMPA directly go into the Consolidated Fund of India (CFI)

    c) These funds are meant to be used by states to implement agro-forestry in non-forest land to compensate for felled forest

    d) None of the above

     

    Best of luck!