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GS Paper: GS2

  • Iran, U.S. warships engage in a tense encounter

    What happened

    • An American warship fired warning shots when vessels of Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard came too close to a patrol in the Persian Gulf.
    • Footage released on April 27 by the Navy showed a ship commanded by the Guard cut in front of the USCGC Monomoy.
    • The incidents at sea almost always involve the Revolutionary Guard, which reports only to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

    Context of the nuclear deal

    • Some analysts believe the incidents are meant in part to squeeze President Hassan Rouhani’s administration after the 2015 nuclear deal.
    • The incident comes as Iran negotiates with world powers in Vienna over Tehran and Washington returning to the 2015 nuclear deal.
    • It also follows a series of incidents across the Mideast attributed to a shadow war between Iran and Israel, which includes attacks on regional shipping and sabotage at Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility.

  • Undermining vaccination for all

    The article highlights the issues with the new vaccine strategy adopted by the government.

    Revamped vaccine strategy

    • With the second Covid-19 wave reaching catastrophic proportions, the Government of India has acted by unveiling a completely revamped vaccine strategy.
    • Two key elements are the hallmark of this new strategy, which will be implemented from May 1.
    • First, the vaccination drive has now been extended to the entire adult population, namely, to those above 18 years.
    • Second, vaccine manufacturers have been given the freedom to sell 50% of their vaccine production to State governments and private hospitals.
    •  A third element of the vaccine strategy, which was not announced formally, is a grant of ₹45 billion to the two vaccine manufacturers, the Serum Institute of India (SII) and Bharat Biotech, to boost their capacities.

    Issues with the new vaccine strategy

    1) Control over the market for vaccine

    • The central government has given up its control over the market for vaccines, a key feature of the vaccine roll-out plans thus far.
    • This issue assumes further significance since the Government of India is well aware about the significance of vaccinating every citizen in the country; “none of us will be safe until everyone is safe”.
    •  It is, therefore, vitally important that public health authorities in the country take an objective view of the realities of the country before adopting strategies for vaccine availability.

    2) Vaccine export

    • The phased roll-out of the government’s ambitious vaccination drive, beginning with health-care and frontline workers in January was in sync with the availability of vaccines in the country.
    •  But, given that India too saw a degree of “vaccine-scepticism”, the Government of India found itself in a situation where it could promise exports of vaccines to 95 countries, mostly in Africa and Asia.
    • As of April 26, these countries have received more than 66.4 million doses of vaccines from India.
    • Until now, nearly 142 million vaccine doses have been administered in the country, the third highest in the world.
    • However, in terms of population share, less than 2% has received both vaccine doses, while less than 9% has received one dose.
    • But there is one worrying facet, which is that a demand-supply mismatch has begun to appear as the coverage of the vaccine-eligible population expanded.
    • The largest supplier, SII, gave two explanations for its inability to meet its commitments.
    • The first was that the United States Government had restricted exports of vaccine culture and other essential materials.
    • Second, the company complained that it lacked the financial capacity to expand its production, requesting a grant of ₹30 billion from the government.

    3) Onus on the States

    • Central government have allowed vaccine producers to sell 50% of their production directly to State governments and private hospitals.
    • The central government would continue to support vaccination for people above 45 years, and health-care workers and frontline workers.
    • The new strategy shifts the onus onto the State governments, which have to take decisions regarding free vaccination for people above 18 years.
    • The government has not fixed the vaccine prices and has allowed the producers to pre-declare the prices they would charge from the State governments and private hospitals, a sharp departure from the extant strategy.
    • New policy fragments the market into three layers namely, central government procurement, State government procurement and the private hospitals.
    • This layering of the market would allow the producers to charge high prices from the State governments and private hospitals.
    • The new strategy would shift the burden of vaccination of the young population, namely, those between 18-44 years, entirely on the State governments.
    •  This implies that the vaccination of a significant section of the population depends on the financial health of each State government, resulting in inequitable access to vaccines across States. 

    4) Public money given for expanding production capacity

    • In view of the advance of ₹45 billion made by the Government of India to the two vaccine producers in India for expanding their production capacities decision to deregulate the vaccine market raises serious questions.
    • This question is more pertinent in India, where access to affordable vaccines is critical for ensuring “vaccination for all”.

    Way forward

    •  Rather than allowing duopoly in the vaccine market, the government should have ensured a competitive market for vaccines.
    • One positive step that the government has taken in this direction is to increase production of Bharat Biotech’s vaccine through the involvement of three public sector undertakings, including Haffkine Institute.
    • There is a need for more open licensing of this vaccine to scale up production.

    Conclusion

    There can be no alternative to vaccination for all if we want to overcome the Covid and to ensure that government needs to rethink its new strategy.

  • Complexities of herd immunity

    What is herd immunity

    • The herd immunity concept is based on lowering the number of susceptible individuals.
    • If sufficient individuals in the population are immune either through vaccination or a prior exposure, then the number of susceptible individuals drops.
    • For example, if the immune population is 70%, then the susceptible population is 30%.

    Does herd immunity really protect from subsequent waves?

    • The number of daily cases depends on three factors: The number of infectious people in the population, the number of susceptible individuals, and the rate of transmission of the virus.
    • The rate of transmission is dependent on the nature of the virus and the extent of contact between individuals.
    • So, if the rate of transmission increases due to change in social behaviour and increased contact then even with a large percentage of the immune population, a significant number of daily cases can result.
    • The “herd immunity” number is not a static number but it changes depending on the rate of transmission of the virus and the extent of virus present.

    Estimating exposures in metro cities

    • Serosurveys indicated that Covid had touched 56% of population in Delhi by January; 75% in some slums Mumbai in November, and about 30% in Bengaluru in November.
    • The population touched by Covid can also be estimated by the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR).
    • This is the total number of deaths divided by the total people infected. In India, the estimate is 0.08%.
    • So this number can be used to back-calculate the number of infections based on the number of deaths in the different cities.
    • The table given below shows the number of people exposed to Covid in some metros until January 31 using the method above.

    What are the reasons behind the recent surge

    • The reasons behind the recent surge are not fully understood.
    • The one factor that is not in doubt, however, is that interaction and contact with the population has increased since February.
    • Such increased contact increased the virus in circulation and led to increased cases in the susceptible population.

  • An unquiet neighbourhood

    The article highlights the inherent difficulty in finding a solution to the two conflicts raging on in India’s neigbourhood.

    Tale of two conflicts in neighbourhood

    • Efforts to end two major conflicts in India’s neighbourhood have become intense.
    • To the west, a peace summit on Afghanistan, seeking to end decades of conflict there, was also scheduled to take place in Istanbul over the weekend.
    • To the east, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has produced a diplomatic opening with Myanmar’s military leadership.
    • Afghan conflict go back to the late 1970s; since then we have seen different phases of the conflict.
    • Although the crisis in Myanmar appears recent, the tension between civil-military relations is not new.
    • Back in 1988, the army annulled the huge mandate won by Aung San Suu Kyi and unleashed massive repression.

    3 Common Themes in the effort at peace and reconciliation

    1) Ending violence

    • The first is about ending violence.
    • In Afghanistan it has been near impossible to get a resurgent Taliban to agree to stop its attacks on government forces or the civilian population.
    • The ASEAN initiative in Myanmar calls for an immediate cessation of violence and utmost restraint from all sides.
    • The opposition demanding restoration of democracy might find this rather ironic, since it is the army that is employing violence and has shown scant restraint.

    2) Dialogue among all parties

    • The second theme in the ASEAN initiative — “constructive dialogue among all parties” to “seek a peaceful solution” — is also common to all peace processes.
    • The Taliban found all kinds of excuses to delay a dialogue with the Kabul government that it always saw as illegitimate. So far, it has avoided one.
    • In Myanmar, the army might be ready to engage the opposition in a prolonged dialogue and defuse international pressure; but it will be hard for the victims of the coup to accept a dialogue on the army’s terms.

    3) Third-party mediator

    • The Afghan conflict has long been internationalised.
    • All major powers, including regional actors and neighbours, have acquired stakes in the way the Afghan conflict is resolved.
    •  This unfortunately makes the construction of an internal settlement that much harder.
    • In Myanmar, the ASEAN has set the ball rolling by agreeing that a special envoy will be traveling to the region and will engage with all parties to the conflict.

    Cost-benefit in diplomacy

    • The US is hoping that the Taliban will moderate some of its hardline positions given its need for significant international economic assistance for reconstruction, political legitimacy.
    • In Myanmar, too, the international community will hope the military would want to avoid the risks of political isolation and economic punishment.
    • But how the Taliban and the Myanmar army calculate these costs and benefits could be very different.
    • Both have long experience of surviving external pressure and enduring sanctions.

    Conclusion

    Few civil wars have seen the kind of massive external effort to change the internal dynamics as in Afghanistan; but to no avail. In Myanmar, it is not clear how far the international community might go. The prospects for positive change in Afghanistan and Myanmar, then, do not look too bright in the near term.

  • Centre uses Disaster Management Act to restrict liquid oxygen use for non-medical purposes

    Order under Disaster Management Act 2015

    • Invoking the Disaster Management Act, the Centre ordered States that all liquid oxygen shall be made available to the government and will be used for medical purposes only.
    • The order said that under section 10(2)(I) and section 65 of the DM Act, States had to ensure that “liquid oxygen is not allowed for any non medical purpose”
    • The order was passed after the review of oxygen supply situation in the country.

    Dealing with the shortage

    • On April 22, Centre issued order under the DM Act, making the district magistrates and senior superintendent of police personally liable to allow unhindered inter-State movement of vehicles carrying medical oxygen.
    • Despite MHA’s orders and letters, States continued to flag shortage of oxygen supply.
    • Medical oxygen to States are being provided as per daily quota decided by an empowered group of officers in central ministries.

  • Rohingya Deportation case

    The article highlights the issues with the order passed by the Supreme Court allowing the deportation of Rohingya refugees.

    Context

    • Recently, in its order in Mohammad Salimullah v. Union of India, the Supreme Court rejected an application to stay the deportation of Rohingya refugees to Myanmar.

    Principle of non-refoulement

    • The Supreme Court noted the petitioners’ reliance on a judgment of the International Court of Justice (ICJ) dated January 23, 2020, which recorded the genocidal conditions that resulted in 7.75 lakh Rohingyas being forced to take refuge in Bangladesh and India.
    • The Supreme Court relied on the word of the government that the principle of non-refoulement, or forcible repatriation to a place where the refugee’s life is in danger, applies only to signatories to the UN’s Refugee Convention of 1951 or its 1967 Protocol.
    • It must be stated that a UN Special Rapporteur was not heard, as the Court felt that serious objections had been raised to her intervention.
    • The Supreme Court accepted that the right not to be deported flows not from the right to life and liberty under Article 21, which applies to all human beings, but from the right to reside and settle in India under Article 19(1)(g), which applies to citizens alone.

    Why the judgement needs reconsideration

    1) India has recognised genocide as an international crime

    • India is a signatory to the Convention for the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide (the Genocide Convention, 1948),
    • Acceding to the Convention in 1959, India has recognised genocide as an international crime, and that the principles of the Convention are “therefore already part of common law of India”.
    •  India has also ratified the International Convention on the Elimination of All Forms of Racial Discrimination (ICERD), the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights (ICCPR) have a bearing on non-refoulement.
    • Article 6(1) of the ICCPR, which mirrors Article 21 of our Constitution.
    • A number of other UN conventions particularly those dealing with the rights of women (CEDAW) and children (CRC) also have a non-refoulment element in it and both of which have been declared by the Supreme Court to be part of our domestic legal framework.

    2) Prevention of genocide

    • The leitmotif of the Genocide Convention is prevention.
    • Prevention is also central to Article I, under which the contracting parties confirm that genocide is a crime under international law, “which they undertake to prevent and to punish”.

    3) Preemptory norm

    • It is increasingly accepted in public international law, that non-refoulement and other protections emanating from the Genocide Convention, are peremptory norms that apply to state parties as well as non-parties.
    • That non-refoulement is jus cogens, a norm from which there can be no derogation whatsoever. I
    • At least three high courts (Gujarat in 1998, Delhi in 2015, and Calcutta in 2019) have held that non-refoulement is part of the right to life and liberty protected by Article 21 of our Constitution.

    What should the Supreme Court do

    • There are two possible solutions.
    • The first is that in its interim order, the Court specifies that the Rohingya refugees may not be deported unless “the procedure prescribed for such deportation is followed”.
    • It is a long-held principle of Indian jurisprudence that the word “procedure” means “due process”, or a procedure that is just, fair, and reasonable.
    • The Supreme Court can, thus, suo motu clarify that due process requires that they not be deported as long as there exists a reasonable threat of persecution in Myanmar.
    • Alternately, since the order in question is an interim order, the Supreme Court could swiftly hear the main petition on its merits, and clarify the law on non-refoulement and Article 21. 

    Conclusion

    The order on the deportation of Rohingya refugees needs reconsideration by the Supreme Court considering the India’s treaty obligations on the genocide.

  • What the US’s recognition of killings of Armenians as genocide mean

    What is genocide

    • According to Article II of the UN Convention on Genocide of December 1948, genocide has been described as carrying out acts intended “to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnic, racial or religious group”.

    Why Armenians were targeted

    • In a way, the Armenians were victims of the great power contests of the late 19th and early 20th centuries.
    • The resentment started building up after the Russo-Turkish war of 1877-78 in which the Turks lost territories.
    • In the Treaty of Berlin, big powers dictated terms to the Ottomans, including putting pressure on Sultan Abdülhamid II to initiate reforms “in the provinces inhabited by Armenians, and to guarantee their security against the Circassians and Kurds.”
    • The Sultan saw this as a sign of strengthening ties between the Armenians and other rival countries, especially Russia.
    • Post the treaty, there were a series of attacks on Armenians by Turkish and Kurdish militias.
    • In 1908, the Young Turks wrested control from the Sultan and promised to restore imperial glory.
    • Under the Turks, the empire became more and “Turkik” and persecution against the ethnic minorities picked up.
    • In October 1914, Turkey joined the First World War on the side of Germany.
    • In the Caucasus, they fought the Russians, their primary geopolitical rival.
    • But the Ottomans suffered a catastrophic defeat in the Battle of Sarikamish by the Russians in January 1915.
    • The Turks blamed the defeat on Armenian “treachery”.

    How the killings took place

    • As the War was still waging, the Ottomans feared that Armenians in eastern Anatolia would join the Russians if they advanced into Ottoman territories.
    • First, Armenians in the Ottoman Army were executed.
    • On April 24, the Ottoman government arrested about 250 Armenian intellectuals and community leaders. Most of them were later executed.
    • The Ottoman government passed legislation to deport anyone who is a security risk.
    • Then they moved Armenians, including children, en masse to the Syrian Desert. That was a march of death.
    • Before the First World War broke out in 1914, there were 2 million Armenians in the Ottoman Empire.
    • According to a study by the University of Minnesota’s Center for Holocaust and Genocide Studies, in 1922, four years after the War, the Armenian population in the region was about 387,800.
    • This has led historians to believe that up to 1.5 million Armenians were killed during the course of the War.

    What is Turkey’s response

    • Turkey has acknowledged that atrocities were committed against Armenians, but denies it was a genocide which comes with legal implications.
    • Turkey also challenges the estimates that 1.5 million were killed.
    • The Turkish Foreign Ministry has issued a strong statement to Mr. Biden’s announcement saying it doesn’t not have “a scholarly and legal basis, nor is it supported by any evidence”.
    • Turkey has called on the U.S. President to correct the mistake of recognition as genocide.

  • [pib] PM launches distribution of e-property cards under SWAMITVA scheme

    e-Property cards under SWAMITVA scheme

    • The Prime Minister launched the distribution of e-property cards under the SWAMITVA scheme on National Panchayati Raj Day (24 April).
    • 4.09 lakh property owners were given their e-property cards on this occasion, which also marked the rolling out of the SVAMITVA scheme for implementation across the country.
    • Under the scheme, the entire village properties are surveyed by drone and property card are distributed to the owners.
    • The Scheme has infused a new confidence in the villages  as property documents remove uncertainty and reduce the chances of property disputes while protecting the poor from exploitation and corruption.
    • This eases credit possibility also.

    About SWAMITVA Scheme

    • SVAMITVA (Survey of Villages and Mapping with Improvised Technology in Village Areas) was launched by Prime Minister on 24th April 2020.
    • It is a Central Sector Scheme to promote a socio-economically empowered and self-reliant rural India.
    • The Scheme has the potential to transform rural India using modern technical tools of mapping and surveying.
    • It paves the way for using the property as a financial asset by villagers for availing loans and other financial benefits.
    • The Scheme will cover around 6.62 Lakh villages of the entire country during 2021-2025.

  • Civil service reforms in India

    The article highlights the role bureaucracy can play in the development of the country and suggests the ways to deal with the challenges faced by the bureaucracy.

    Background of the PSU’s

    • In the 1950s and ’60s, the private sector had neither the capability to raise capital to take the country on the path of industrialisation.
    • The state had to take on the role of industrialising the country by establishing PSUs.
    • The civil services became the natural choice for establishing and managing these units.
    • They delivered substantially, if not fully.
    • Even after privatisation, the bureaucracy would be required for the transition of PSUs from the public to the private sector.

    Need for structural transformation agenda

    • The goal of making India a $5-trillion economy needs a coherent structural transformation agenda and extraordinary implementation capacity.

    1) Dealing with crony capitalisms

    • Since Independence, the political survival of Indian regimes has required pleasing a powerful land-owning class and a highly concentrated set of industrial capitalists.
    • The elites of business houses and land owners share no all-encompassing development agenda.
    • Can the present regime find a way out of this conundrum?

    2) Implementing the development agenda

    • While the agenda is an outcome of political choices, the thinking goes that market mechanisms should be used as far as possible to make economic choices.
    • This argument is at the heart of the privatisation of state assets.
    • However, markets operate well only when they are supported by other kinds of social networks, which include non-contractual elements like trust.
    • Particularly in industrial transformation, there must be an essential complementarity of state structures and market exchange.
    • Only a competent bureaucracy can provide this.
    • It is for this reason that Max Weber argued that the operation of large-scale capitalist enterprise depended upon the kind of order that only a modern bureaucratic state can provide.

    3) Removing the constraints on the bureaucracy

    • The political and permanent executives had to work as a team through mutual respect for each other’s roles as defined in the Constitution.
    • Every deviation from these ideals has lowered the capacity of the state to deliver.
    • This is the result of electoral politics where the essence of the state action is the exchange relationships between the incumbent governments and its supporters.
    • All this is achieved by undermining the impartiality of the bureaucracy in implementing rules and giving opinions frankly.
    • The power to transfer is weaponised to bring the bureaucrats to heel and it works because authority sits with the position not the person.
    • The pressure on officials to behave contrary to the ostensible purpose of the department undermines to a great extent the ability of the state to promote development.
    • If privatisation is to work, then the corruption-transfer mechanism and its effects on the bureaucracy has to go.

    4) Corporate coherence

    • Corporate coherence is the ability of the bureaucracy internally to resist the invisible hands of personal maximisation by undercutting the formal organisational structure through informal networks.
    • If this goes too far, then everything becomes open to sale and the state becomes predatory.

    Consider the question “What are the issues facing civil services in India? Suggest the ways to deal with these issues.”

    Conclusion

    We need to fight the increasing tendency to grab public resources and restore to the bureaucracy its autonomy of action as envisaged in the Constitution by de-weaponising transfers.

  • Amid concerns in India and Brazil, the unused vaccine stockpile in US

    Issue of diverting the vaccine stock to India

    • Epidemiologists to industry leaders are urging the Biden administration to release the reserve to countries like India and Brazil, given the assertion that the doses won’t be used in the US.
    • According to Brown University School of Public Health Ashish Jha, the US is “sitting on 35-40 million doses of AstraZeneca vaccine Americans will never use”.
    • In early April, US chief medical adviser Anthony Fauci said the US will likely not need the AstraZeneca shot. 
    • The AstraZeneca vaccine has not been granted Emergency Use Authorization by the US Federal Drug Administration (FDA).
    • With documented cases of blood clots in younger women in Europe correlated with the vaccine, FDA authorisation may be further delayed.

    What has the US said in response

    • Co-ordinator of the US Covid-19 taskforce that the Quad partnership and team is providing assistance across government to the country.
    •  He also stated that as their confidence around our supply increases, we will explore the option of exporting the vaccines.

    Vaccine inequality

    • According to Bloomberg’s Vaccine Tracker, highest-income countries are vaccinating at a pace 25 times faster than the lowest ones.
    • The US has 22.9% of the world’s vaccines but only 4.3% of the world’s population.
    • China has 21.9% and 18.2% respectively, and India 13.8% and 17.7%, according to the tracker.
    • Almost half of all vaccines have gone to 16% of the world’s population.
    • The Washington Post reported that the world’s poorest 92 countries may not be able to vaccinate even 60% of their population for another three years.
    • India has vaccinated 8% per cent of the population with one dose and 1% with two. Brazil has vaccinated less than 12% with one.

    Impact on vaccination in African nations

    • India’s stalled vaccine exports have domino effects on the rollouts in African nations and other developing countries, as Serum’s productions were fuelling efforts globally before India’s second wave.