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GS Paper: GS2

  • How Covid would impact India’s foreign policy canvass

    Foreign policy consequences

    • The devastation caused by the second Covid wave prompted India to accept foreign aid after a gap of 17 years.
    • This is bound to have far-reaching strategic implications for India.
    • As a direct consequence of the pandemic, India’s claim to regional primacy and leadership will take a major hit.
    • India ‘leading power’ aspirations will be dented, and accentuate its domestic political contestations.
    • These in turn will impact the content and conduct of India’s foreign policy in the years to come.

    What would be the strategic implications?

    1) Impact on India’s regional primacy

    • COVID 2.0 has quickened the demise of India’s regional primacy.
    • India’s geopolitical decline is likely to begin in the neighbourhood itself.
    • India’s traditional primacy in the region was built on a mix of material aid, political influence and historical ties.
    • Its political influence is steadily declining, its ability to materially help the neighbourhood will shrink in the wake of COVID-19.
    • Its historical ties alone may not do wonders to hold on to a region hungry for development assistance and political autonomy.

    2) Impact on India’s great power aspiration

    •  India aspires to be a leading power, rather than just a balancing power.
    • While the Indo-Pacific is geopolitically keen and ready to engage with India, the pandemic could adversely impact India’s ability and desire to contribute to the Indo-Pacific and the Quad.
    • COVID-19, for instance, will prevent any ambitious military spending or modernisation plans.
    • Covid-19 will also limit the country’s attention on global diplomacy and regional geopolitics, be it Afghanistan or Sri Lanka or the Indo-Pacific.
    • With reduced military spending and lesser diplomatic attention to regional geopolitics, New Delhi’s ability to project power and contribute to the growth of the Quad will be uncertain.

    3) Domestic political contestation  and its impact on strategic ambition

    • Domestic political contestations in the wake of the COVID-19 devastation in the country could also limit India’s strategic ambitions.
    • General economic distress, a fall in foreign direct investment and industrial production, and a rise in unemployment have already lowered the mood in the country.
    • A depressed economy, politically volatile domestic space combined with a lack of elite consensus on strategic matters would hardly inspire confidence in the international system about India.

    4) Impact on India-China equation

    • From competing with China’s vaccine diplomacy a few months ago, New Delhi today is forced to seek help from the international community.
    • China has, compared to most other countries, emerged stronger in the wake of the pandemic.
    • The world, notwithstanding its anti-China rhetoric, will continue to do business with Beijing — it already has been, and it will only increase.
    • Claims that India could compete with China as a global investment and manufacturing destination would be dented.
    • India’s ability to stand up to China stands vastly diminished today: in material power, in terms of balance of power considerations, and political will.

    5) Depressed foreign policy

    • Given the much reduced political capital within the government to pursue ambitious foreign policy goals, the diplomatic bandwidth for expansive foreign policy goals would be limited.
    • This, however, might take the aggressive edge off of India’s foreign policy.
    • Less aggression could potentially translate into more accommodation, reconciliation and cooperation especially in the neighbourhood, with Pakistan on the one hand and within the broader South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) framework on the other.
    •  COVID-19 has forced us to reimagine, to some extent at least, the friend enemy equations in global geopolitics.
    • While the United States seemed hesitant, at least initially, Russia was quick to come to India’s aid. 

    6) Implications for strategic autonomy

    • The pandemic would, at the very least indirectly, impact India’s policy of maintaining strategic autonomy.
    • As pointed out above, the strategic consequences of the pandemic are bound to shape and structure India’s foreign policy choices as well as constrain India’s foreign policy agency.
    • It could, for instance, become more susceptible to external criticism for, after all, India cannot say ‘yes’ to just aid and ‘no’ to criticism.

    Consider the question “Examine the strategic implications of Covid for India.” 

    Way forward

    • COVID-19 will also do is open up new regional opportunities for cooperation especially under the ambit of SAARC.
    • India might do well to get the region’s collective focus on ‘regional health multilateralism’ to promote mutual assistance and joint action on health emergencies such as this.
    • Classical geopolitics should be brought on a par with health diplomacy, environmental concerns and regional connectivity in South Asia.

    Conclusion

    While the outpouring of global aid to India shows that the world realises India is too important to fail, the international community might also reach the conclusion that post-COVID-19 India is too fragile to lead and be a ‘leading power’.

  • [pib] Cabinet approval to MoU between India and UK on Global Innovation Partnership

    Cabinet approval to GIP

    • The Union Cabinet gave ex-post facto approval to the signing of Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) India and Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) of the United Kingdom on Global Innovation Partnership (GIP).
    • GIP will support Indian innovators to scale up their innovations in third countries thereby helping them explore new markets and become self-sustainable.

    How GIP will help India

    • It will also foster an innovative ecosystem in India.
    • GIP innovations will focus on Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) related sectors thereby assisting recipient countries achieve their SDGs.
    • Through seed funding, grants, investments and technical assistance, the Partnership will support Indian entrepreneurs and innovators to test, scale-up and take their innovative development solutions to select developing countries.
    • GIP will also develop an open and inclusive e-marketplace (E-BAAZAR) for cross-border innovation transfer and will focus on results-based impact assessment thereby promoting transparency and accountability.

  • Scientists see flaws in SUTRA’s approach to forecast pandemic

    About SUTRA

    • SUTRA (Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive), and Removed Approach) first came into public attention when one of its expert members announced in October that India was “past its peak”.
    • Unlike many epidemiological models that extrapolated cases based on the existing number of cases, the behaviour of the virus and manner of spread, the SUTRA model chose a “data centric approach”.
    • However, the surge in the second wave was several times what any of the modellers had predicted.
    • The predictions of the SUTRA model were too variable to guide government policy.

    So, what went wrong in the model

    • The SUTRA model was problematic as it relied on too many parameters, and recalibrated those parameters whenever its predictions broke down.
    • The more parameters you have, the more you are in danger of overfitting.
    • One of the main reasons for the model not gauging an impending, exponential rise was that a constant indicating contact between people and populations went wrong.
    • Further the model was ‘calibrated’ incorrectly.
    • The model relied on a serosurvey conducted by the ICMR in May that said 0.73% of India’s population may have been infected at that time.
    • This calibration led our model to the conclusion that more than 50% population was immune by January.
    • The SUTRA model’s omission of the importance of the behaviour of the virus; the fact that some people were bigger transmitters; a lack of accounting for social or geographic heterogeneity and not stratifying the population by age as it didn’t account for contacts between different age groups also undermined its validity.

  • Article 21 and the right of non-refoulement

    Significance of Manipur High Court judgement

    • The High Court of Manipur on Monday allowed seven Myanmar nationals, to travel to New Delhi to seek protection from the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR).
    • “The far-reaching and myriad protection afforded by Article 21 of our Constitution, as interpreted and adumbrated by our Supreme Court time and again, would indubitably encompass the right of non-refoulement,” the court said.

    What is the principle of non-refoulemennt

    • Non-refoulement is the principle under international law that a person fleeing from persecution from his own country should not be forced to return.
    • Though India is not a party to the UN Refugee Conventions, the court observed that the country is a party to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights of 1948 and the International Covenant on Civil and Political Rights of 1966.

  • A ‘One Health’ approach that targets people, animals

    The article highlights the need for a holistic approach to animal and human health as more than two-thirds of existing and emerging infectious diseases are zoonotic.

    Need to document the link between environment animal and human health

    • Studies indicate that more than two-thirds of existing and emerging infectious diseases are zoonotic, or can be transferred between animals and humans, and vice versa.
    • Another category of diseases, anthropozoonotic infections, gets transferred from humans to animals.
    • The transboundary impact of viral outbreaks in recent years such as the Nipah virus, Ebola, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) has reinforced the need for us to consistently document the linkages between the environment, animals, and human health.

    India’s ‘One Health’ vision

    • India’s ‘One Health’ vision derives its blueprint from the agreement between the tripartite-plus alliance.
    • The alliance comprises the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), the World Organisation for Animal Health (OIE), the World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) — a global initiative supported by the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) and the World Bank under the overarching goal of contributing to ‘One World, One Health’.
    • In keeping with the long-term objectives, India established a National Standing Committee on Zoonoses as far back as the 1980s.
    • This year, funds were sanctioned for setting up a ‘Centre for One Health’ at Nagpur.
    • Further, the Department of Animal Husbandry and Dairying (DAHD) has launched several schemes to mitigate the prevalence of animal diseases since 2015.
    • Hence, under the National Animal Disease Control Programme, ₹13,343 crore have been sanctioned for Foot and Mouth disease and Brucellosis control.
    • In addition, DAHD will soon establish a ‘One Health’ unit within the Ministry.
    • Additionally, the government is working to revamp programmes that focus on capacity building for veterinarians such as  Assistance to States for Control of Animal Diseases (ASCAD).
    • There is increased focus on vaccination against livestock diseases and backyard poultry.
    •  DAHD has partnered with the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare in the National Action Plan for Eliminating Dog Mediated Rabies.

    Need for coordination

    •  There are more than 1.7 million viruses circulating in wildlife, and many of them are likely to be zoonotic.
    • Therefore, unless there is timely detection, India risks facing many more pandemics in times to come.
    • There is need to address challenges pertaining to veterinary manpower shortages, the lack of information sharing between human and animal health institutions, and inadequate coordination on food safety at slaughter.
    • These issues can be remedied by consolidating existing animal health and disease surveillance systems — e.g., the Information Network for Animal Productivity and Health, and the National Animal Disease Reporting System.

    Conclusion

    As we battle yet another wave of a deadly zoonotic disease (COVID-19), awareness generation, and increased investments toward meeting ‘One Health’ targets is the need of the hour.

  • India-UK Relations

    The article highlights the factors that make building sustainable partnership with Britain hard for India and suggests the ways to find fresh basis for bilateral relationship.

    Need to tap potential for bilateral strategic cooperation

    • The long-scheduled summit between Prime Ministers of India and UK will take place with a digital conversation scheduled for Tuesday.
    • India and the UK must tap into the enormous potential for bilateral strategic cooperation in the health sector and contributions to the global war on the virus.
    • Foreign ministers of India, Japan and Australia would also join this meeting to set the stage for the “Group of Seven Plus Three” physical summit next month hosted by the British Prime Minister.

    Challenges in forming a sustainable partnership with Britain

    • Few Western powers are as deeply connected to India as Britain.
    • While India’s relations with countries as different as the US and France have dramatically improved in recent years, ties with Britain have lagged.
    • One reason for this failure has been the colonial prism that has distorted mutual perceptions.
    • The bitter legacies of the Partition and Britain’s perceived tilt to Pakistan have long complicated the engagement between Delhi and London.
    • Also, the large South Asian diaspora in the UK transmits the internal and intra-regional conflicts in the subcontinent into Britain’s domestic politics.

    Finding fresh basis for bilateral relationship

    • The two leaders are expected to announce a 10-year roadmap to transform the bilateral relationship that will cover a range of areas.
    • Both countries are on the rebound from their respective regional blocs.
    • Britain has walked out of the European Union and India has refused to join the China-centred Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.
    • Although both will continue to trade with their regional partners, they are eager to build new global economic partnerships.
    • While remaining a security actor in Europe, Britain is tilting to the Indo-Pacific, where India is a natural ally.
    • India needs as wide a coalition as possible to restore a semblance of regional balance.
    • Britain could also contribute to the strengthening of India’s domestic defence industrial base.
    • The two sides could also expand India’s regional reach through sharing of logistical facilities.
    • Both countries are said to be exploring an agreement on “migration and mobility” to facilitate the legal movement of Indians into Britain.
    • Both sides are committed to finding common ground on climate change.

    Consder the question “What are the factors that introduce friction in the sustainability of India’s bilateral relations with the Britain? Identify the areas in which both the countries can find fresh basis for the bilateral relations?”

    Conclusion

    If leaders of both the countries succeed in laying down mutually beneficial terms of endearment, future governments might be less tempted to undermine the partnership.

  • [pib] India-UK Virtual Summit

    India-UK Virtual Summit

    • Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi and The Rt Hon’ble Boris Johnson, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom held a Virtual Summit today.
    • An ambitious ‘Roadmap 2030’ was adopted at the Summit to elevate bilateral ties to a ‘Comprehensive Strategic Partnership’.
    • The two Prime Ministers launched an ‘Enhanced Trade Partnership’ (ETP) by setting an ambitious target of more than doubling bilateral trade by 2030.
    • As part of the ETP, India and the UK agreed on a roadmap to negotiate a comprehensive and balanced FTA, including consideration of an Interim Trade Agreement for delivering early gains.
    • The enhanced trade partnership between India and UK will generate several thousands of direct and indirect jobs in both the countries.

    Collaboration and partnerships

    • The UK is India’s second-largest partner in research and innovation collaborations.
    • A new India-UK ‘Global Innovation Partnership’ was announced at the Virtual Summit that aims to support the transfer of inclusive Indian innovations to select developing countries, starting with Africa.
    • Both sides agreed to enhance cooperation on new and emerging technologies, including Digital and ICT products, and work on supply chain resilience.
    • They also agreed to strengthen defence and security ties, including in the maritime, counter-terrorism and cyberspace domains.

  • G7 to consider mechanism to counter misinformation

    G7 considering rapid response mechanism

    • The G7 members are Britain, the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Italy and Japan and their combined gross domestic product is about $40 trillion – a little less than half of the global economy.
    • G7 will look at a proposal to build a rapid response mechanism to counter Russian propaganda and disinformation.
    • Speaking ahead of a G7 foreign ministers’ meeting in London British Foreign Secretary said the United Kingdom was getting the G7 to come together with a rapid rebuttal mechanism to counter Russian misinformation.
    • Britain has identified Russia as the biggest threat to its security though it views China as its greatest long-term challenge, militarily, economically and technologically.

    Britain to engage more in Indo-Pacific

    • Britain has invited India, Australia and South Korea to attend this week’s meeting and the full leaders’ summit in June.
    • There was no concrete proposal as yet about Britain joining Quad.
    • Britain has been looking at ways to engage more in the Indo-Pacific.

  • Judicial federalism

    The article discusses the idea of judicial federalism and autonomy of the High Courts.

    Issue of transfer of cases from High Courts to Supreme Court

    • Under Article 139A of the Constitution, the Supreme Court does have the power to transfer cases from the High Courts to itself if cases involve the same questions of law.
    • In Parmanand Katara v. Union of India (1989), the Supreme Court underlined that the right to emergency medical treatment is part of the citizen’s fundamental rights.
    • As such, constitutional courts owe a duty to protect this right.
    • In the face of a de facto COVID-19 health emergency, the High Courts of Delhi, Gujarat, Madras and Bombay, among others, have done exactly that.
    • These High Courts among others have directed the state governments on various issues related to COVID-19 health emergency.
    • However, Supreme Court issued an order asking the State governments and the Union Territories to “show cause why uniform orders” should not be passed by the Supreme Court.
    • Therefore, the Supreme Court indicated the possibility of the transfer of cases to itself.

    Issues with the SC’s move

    • According to the Seventh Schedule of the Constitution, public health and hospitals come under the State List as Item No. 6.
    • There could be related subjects coming under the Union List or Concurrent List.
    • Also, there may be areas of inter-State conflicts.
    • But as of now, the respective High Courts have been dealing with specific challenges at the regional level, the resolution of which does not warrant the top court’s interference.
    • In addition to the geographical reasons, the constitutional scheme of the Indian judiciary is pertinent.
    •  In L. Chandra Kumar v. Union of India (1997), the Supreme Court itself said that the High Courts are “institutions endowed with glorious judicial traditions” since they “had been in existence since the 19th century”.
    • Even otherwise, in a way, the power of the High Court under Article 226 is wider than the Supreme Court’s under Article 32.
    • This position was reiterated by the court soon after its inception in State of Orissa v. Madan Gopal Rungta (1951).
    • Judicial federalism has intrinsic and instrumental benefits which are essentially political.
    • The United States is an illustrative case.
    • The U.S. Supreme Court reviews “only a relative handful of cases from state courts” which ensures “a large measure of autonomy in the application of federal law” for the State courts.
    • The need for a uniform judicial order across India is warranted only when it is unavoidable — for example, in cases of an apparent conflict of laws or judgments on legal interpretation.
    • Otherwise, autonomy, not uniformity, is the rule.
    • Decentralisation, not centrism, is the principle.

    Consider the question “Under Article 139A of the Constitution, the Supreme Court does have the power to transfer cases from the High Courts to itself if cases involve the same questions of law. However, transferring such cases should not impinge on judicial federalism. Comment.”

    Conclusion

    In the COVID-19-related cases, High Courts across the country have acted with an immense sense of judicial responsibility. This is a legal landscape that deserves to be encouraged. To do this, the Supreme Court must simply stay away.

  • A WTO waiver on patents won’t help us against covid

    There has been growing clamour across the world for waiver of intellectual property protection for Covid-19 vaccines under TRIPS. The article suggests alternatives to achieve the desired production of vaccines without setting the precedent for a waiver.

    Waiver from TRIPS

    • Last October, India and South Africa moved a motion at the WTO asking its council on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) to provide a waiver on intellectual property protection for pharmaceutical patents.
    • Many developing countries have since supported the joint move.
    • While most advanced countries, home to the world’s major pharmaceutical companies, have opposed it.
    • Nobel economist Joseph Stiglitz, along with activist Lori Wallach, penned an opinion piece making a case for such a waiver.

    Voluntary licensing

    • Alternative to waiver could be voluntary licensing arrangements between pharmaceutical companies and countries that wish to make vaccine doses for their own use.
    • This is exactly what has occurred in India’s case, with a licensing agreement between AstraZeneca and Serum Institute of India.
    • The recent difficulties with this arrangement are a result of India diverting some doses intended for export (or for Covax) to its domestic vaccination drive.
    • But India will soon begin making other important global vaccines under similar licence arrangements, and a waiver would do nothing to speed up this process.

    Compulsory licensing

    • In the event that India needs to ramp up production more than is feasible via licences from global manufacturers, there is another alternative available, which is ‘compulsory licensing’.
    • Such an approach would not permit the export of vaccine doses made under a compulsory licence.
    • This approach should be taken by any developing country, if, for some reason, global pharmaceutical companies are unwilling to license a life-saving vaccine for domestic manufacture and distribution in that nation.

    Why TRIPS waiver won’t help

    • India’s limiting factors are a shortage of raw materials and low production capacity, neither of which would be cured with the supposed magic bullet of a WTO waiver.
    • Not only would a WTO waiver not do anything to address the real bottlenecks that constrain the global production and distribution of vaccines, it would also set a bad precedent.
    • It is true that governments, including the US and others, have significantly subsidized or incentivized in other ways the research and development activities of private pharmaceutical companies that now hold patents for major covid vaccines.
    • Yet, these governments required the ingenuity of private enterprise to invent these vaccines.

    Consider the question “What are the legal provisions to ensure the accessibility of life-saving drugs in the country?”

    Conclusion

    While it may seem appealing, a WTO waiver on intellectual property protection is an inappropriate priority. It’s a distraction from the heavy lifting needed to create the capacity to fight the scourge of covid.