Indian researchers have developed a predictive model based on the Gompertz Model to estimate a newborn’s birth weight using routine pregnancy scans.
What isthe Gompertz Model?
It is a mathematical model developed by English mathematician Benjamin Gompertz in the early 19th century.
It was originally designed to modelpopulation growth in a constrained environment, such as a specific geographic region.
The model uses an S-shaped (sigmoid) curve to represent growth patterns that start slowly, accelerate, and then slow again as they approach a plateau.
Applications:
Biology: The Gompertz Model is used to study tumor growth and cell population dynamics, reflecting constrained growth in biological systems.
Epidemiology: Applied in predicting the spread of infectious diseases like COVID-19, capturing how transmission rates slow with interventions.
Ecology: Useful for modelling species population growth in habitats with limited resources, aiding conservation and ecosystem management.
Healthcare: Recently adapted to predict foetal birth weight, helping identify potential risks associated with low or high birth weight.
Aging Research: Employed to analyze mortality rates and lifespan patterns, contributing to studies on aging and longevity.
Recent Research and Significance
Recent research has applied the Gompertz Model in predicting foetal birth weight using routine scans, as shown by researchers from IISER Pune and IMSc Chennai, offering a non-invasive alternative for maternal health.
The model is used in tumor growth studies, allowing researchers to understand and predict cancer progression.
Its predictive accuracy under constrained conditions makes it useful for biological systems, including population growth and cell dynamics.
In healthcare, it supports early detection and intervention for conditions impacted by growth patterns, such as low or high birth weight risks.
Since 1977, the South Lhonak Lake, a glacial lake in Sikkim has expanded significantly, growing from 17 hectares to 167 hectares by 2023.
Formation of Glacial Lakes:
When a glacier melts and retreats, the hollow left behind often fills with water, creating a glacial lake.
The rocky moraine at the glacier’s end can act as a natural dam, holding the water to form the lake.
Glacial lakes act as hydrological buffers, regulating water flow from melting ice, which can sometimes pose challenges to downstream communities.
Glacial lakes often have a vivid blue color, similar to swimming pools, due to the scattering of light by fine rock particles (rock flour) in the water.
There are several types of glacial lakes, each formed by specific processes and glacier dynamics:
Moraine-Dammed Lakes: Formed when moraine debris piles up at the end of a glacier and traps meltwater behind it. These are common and pose risks of outburst flooding.
Kettle Lakes: This was created when a chunk of glacier ice is buried in the moraine and eventually melts, leaving a depression filled with water.
Cirque Lakes: Formed in circular basins (cirques) carved by glaciers at high elevations. These lakes are often small and located at the glacier’s original head.
Pro-glacial Lakes: Situated in front of the glacier, between the ice and the moraine dam. These lakes are sometimes formed when the glacier’s snout melts and deposits water in the valley.
Tarn Lakes: Formed in depressions left behind in the cirques or basins after the glacier has completely melted.
Major Glacial Lakes in India
India’s Himalayan region is home to numerous glacial lakes, each with unique characteristics:
Gurudongmar Lake (Sikkim): One of the highest lakes in the world at 5,430 meters above sea level, fed by glacial melt and known for its religious significance.
Chandra Taal (Himachal Pradesh): A stunning crescent-shaped lake in the Lahaul-Spiti region at 4,300 meters. It is surrounded by snow-capped mountains and fed by glacier melt.
Samiti Lake (Sikkim): Located along the trek to Kanchenjunga and known for its clear blue waters and reflective quality.
Satopanth Tal (Uttarakhand): Found in the Garhwal Himalayas, this lake lies close to Satopanth Glacier and is considered sacred by locals.
South Lhonak Lake (Sikkim): A growing lake fed by three glaciers, expanding rapidly due to climate change and posing risks of glacial lake outburst floods.
PYQ:
[2019] Consider the following pairs:
Glacier: River
Bandarpunch: Yamuna
Bara Shigri: Chenab
Milam: Mandakini
Siachen: Nubra
Zemu: Manas
Which of the pairs given above are correctly matched?
(a) 1, 2 and 4 only
(b) 1, 3 and 4 only
(c) 2 and 5 only
(d) 3 and 5 only
A recent study from Michigan Medicine found that Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA), a common sleep disorder, increases the risk of dementia (loss of cognitive functioning) in adults, especially in women.
What is Obstructive Sleep Apnea (OSA)?
OSA is a sleep disorder where breathing repeatedly stops and starts during sleep due to blocked airways.
It is marked by episodes of disrupted or restricted breathing, leading to brief awakenings throughout the night.
Symptoms include loud snoring, gasping for air, morning headaches, and daytime drowsiness.
Risk Factors: Common in individuals who are overweight, have large tonsils or suffer from nasal congestion.
In India, approximately 10.4 lakh people are reported to suffer from OSA, as per government data.
Untreated OSA is associated with various health risks, including heart disease, diabetes, and cognitive decline.
Recent Findings on OSA and Dementia Risk
A study from Michigan Medicine found a link between OSA and increased dementia risk, especially in older adults over 50.
Women with known or suspected OSA were found to have a higher likelihood of developing dementia compared to men, with dementia diagnoses increasing as women age.
Another study by NIMHANS focused on the link between stroke and OSA.
105 stroke patients over the age of 50 were studied using polysomnography (PSG), which tracks brain waves and sleep breathing patterns.
Results showed that 88%of stroke patientshadsleep apnea soon after their stroke, with 38% having severe OSA.
Q) How does biodiversity vary in India? How is the Biological Diversity Act,2002 helpful in conservation of flora and fauna? (UPSC CSE 2018)
Q) How can the mountain ecosystem be restored from the negative impact of development initiatives and tourism? (UPSC CSE 2019)
Q) Examine the status of forest resources of India and its resultant impact on climate change. (UPSC CSE 2020)
Mentor’s Comment:The Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve, a region in southern India, is celebrated for its rich biodiversity and unique ecosystems. However, it faces significant environmental challenges that threaten its ecological balance and the livelihoods of local communities.
Today’s editorial explores the pressing issues surrounding the Nilgiris as a shared wilderness, emphasizing the need for sustainable practices and community involvement in conservation efforts.
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Let’s learn!
Why in the News?
Experts at a recent conference emphasized the urgent need for community involvement in restoration efforts within the Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve (NBR).
They highlighted threats such as invasive species, unregulated tourism, and land use changes that have disrupted the ecological balance.
About the Nilgiri Biosphere Reserve (NBR):
• Located in the Western Ghats of southern India, it is a critical ecological zone renowned for its rich biodiversity and unique ecosystems. • Established in 1986, it was the first biosphere reserve in India and is recognized under UNESCO’s Man and the Biosphere Programme. • The NBR spans parts of Tamil Nadu, Kerala, and Karnataka, making it a significant area for conservation efforts.
Significance: • The diverse vegetation types, ranging from tropical evergreen forests to montane sholas and grasslands, contribute to the region’s ecological richness. • It supports many endangered species like the Nilgiri Tahr and Lion-tailed Macaque. • The region’s forests are crucial for watershed management, helping to regulate water flow and maintain water quality for millions of people living downstream. • The forests within the NBR act as carbon sinks, absorbing CO2 from the atmosphere and helping mitigate climate change effects.
What are the ecological challenges facing the Nilgiris?
Habitat Loss: Non-native plants like Lantana and Eucalyptus are taking over, outcompeting local flora and harming wildlife habitats.
Urbanization and agricultural expansion (like tea and coffee plantations) are destroying natural landscapes, leading to fragmentation of wildlife habitats.
Climate Change: Altered weather patterns are affecting plant and animal distributions, causing shifts in biodiversity and increasing soil erosion.
Unregulated Tourism: Increased tourist activity is causing littering and habitat disturbance, putting pressure on sensitive ecosystems.
As humans expand into wildlife areas, Human-animal conflicts arise, especially with elephants raiding crops, leading to retaliatory actions.
Illegal Activities: Poaching and illegal logging threaten the region’s biodiversity, particularly valuable species like sandalwood.
How do indigenous communities interact with and contribute to the conservation of the Nilgiris?
Traditional Knowledge: Indigenous peoples have deep knowledge about local plants and animals, helping them manage resources sustainably.
For example, Their traditional farming methods, such as rotational agriculture, promote ecological balance and help maintain wildlife habitats.
Sustainable Practices: Many rely on non-timber forest products (like honey and medicinal plants) and practice eco-friendly agriculture, which supports both their livelihoods and biodiversity.
Indigenous groups actively participate in conservation projects, such as restoring degraded areas and managing invasive species.
Advocacy: Indigenous leaders advocate for their rights to land and resources, emphasizing their role as protectors of the environment.
They pass down traditional knowledge to younger generations through workshops, ensuring that conservation practices continue.
What policies or initiatives are necessary to balance development and conservation in the Nilgiris?
Carbon Neutral Initiatives: Need to encourage eco-friendly tourism practices, such as cycling tours and car-free pathways, to reduce vehicular traffic and pollution.
Community Involvement: Facilitate the development of sustainable livelihoods that align with conservation goals, such as harvesting non-timber forest products. Their traditional knowledge can guide sustainable practices and restoration activities.
Regulation of Development Activities: State governments needs to enforce stringent regulations on construction activities to prevent encroachments and protect wetlands and other sensitive areas.
Restoration Projects: Need to develop programs that focus on restoring degraded habitats, such as montane grasslands and shola forests, which are critical for biodiversity.
Water Resource Protection: Need to implement measures to safeguard water bodies from pollution and encroachment, recognizing that the Nilgiris are vital water sources for surrounding regions.
For example, restoring wetland areas that have been converted for agriculture or development, enhancing their capacity to retain water and support biodiversity.
Way Forward: By recognizing the interconnectedness of culture and ecology, there is potential to develop sustainable practices that honor both the natural environment and the rich heritage of its inhabitants. The path forward lies in fostering collaboration and promoting awareness about the importance of conserving this unique biosphere for future generations.
Scientists have used LiDAR technology to find an ancient Mayan city hidden for centuries under a thick jungle in Mexico.
What is LiDAR?
LiDAR (Light Detection and Ranging) is a remote sensing technology that uses laser light pulses to measure distances between a sensor (often airborne) and Earth’s surface.
It produces high-resolution, 3D models of ground elevation with up to 10 cm vertical accuracy, as per the US Geological Survey.
How Does LiDAR Work?
LiDAR Setup: Includes a laser, a scanner, and a GPS receiver. The laser emits rapid pulses of light that reflect off surfaces on the ground, including natural features and man-made structures.
Data Collection: The reflected light returns to the sensor, and the LiDAR system calculates the two-way travel time to determine the distance to each point on Earth’s surface.
Data Processing: GPS and Inertial Measurement System (IMS) data are used to create accurate maps. The initial data forms a “point cloud” representing surfaces like vegetation, buildings, and terrain.
“Bare Earth” Model: By filtering out structures and vegetation, LiDAR can create a Digital Elevation Model that shows just the ground terrain.
Applications of LiDAR
Geography and Mapping: Creates precise 3D information for topographic mapping.
Urban Planning and Infrastructure: Used in planning transportation routes, assessing flood risk, and managing natural resources.
Engineering and Policy: Provides data for infrastructure design, environmental policy making, and land-use planning.
Why is LiDAR Useful for Archaeologists?
Large-Area Surveying: LiDAR enables archaeologists to study extensive areas quickly, bypassing the need for labor-intensive, on-ground exploration.
Vegetation Penetration: LiDAR can “see through” dense tree canopies by using the reflections that pass through gaps, allowing mapping of hidden structures and terrain.
Detailed Site Mapping: With “bare earth” models, archaeologists can strip away vegetation layers to reveal hidden archaeological sites.
Case Study – Maya Civilization: Archaeologists discovered the lost Mayan city of Valeriana in Mexico by analyzing publicly available LiDAR data, uncovering plazas, temple pyramids, a ballcourt, and other features indicative of a Classic Maya capital.
Where is the Indian Government using LiDAR ?
High-Speed Rail Projects: NHSRCL (National High-Speed Rail Corporation Limited) uses aerial LiDAR surveys for the Delhi-Varanasi High-Speed Rail Corridor, reducing survey time from 10-12 months to 3-4 months by capturing detailed topographical data within a 300-meter corridor.
National Highways: NHAI mandates Mobile LiDAR for feasibility studies and project reports, enhancing the accuracy and efficiency of highway surveys across extensive networks.
Forest Mapping: The Ministry of Environment is piloting LiDAR-based forest mapping across states to improve forest management and accurately monitor forest cover changes.
Water Resource Management: WAPCOS is using LiDAR to identify groundwater recharge zones, aiding water resource management and mitigating human-animal conflicts in forested areas.
Urban Planning: Chandigarh and Gujarat are using LiDAR for GIS mapping and drone-based surveys, respectively, supporting detailed city models, urban planning, and infrastructure mapping.
Conclusion: LiDAR technology has revolutionized fields from archaeology to urban planning by providing precise 3D mapping. In India, it’s enhancing infrastructure projects, environmental monitoring, and urban planning, proving invaluable for efficient, large-scale data collection and analysis.
Over nine years ago, the world promised to cut emissions significantly, but it hasn’t succeeded. As a result, the goal of keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees is now out of reach.
Is the 1.5°C Target Still Achievable?
Rising Emissions: Global emissions are still increasing, with 2023 seeing record levels. Despite clean energy advancements, emissions reductions have been insufficient to meet the pace required for the 1.5°C target.
Potential for Emission Peaking: The UNEP Emissions Gap Report suggests that emissions could peak by 2023 or 2024 if significant additional measures are taken, but global actions remain inconsistent and often insufficient.
Need for Accelerated Action: For the 1.5°C goal, global emissions need to drop by at least 43% by 2030 from 2019 levels.
Current projections indicate only a 2.6% reduction by 2030, far short of the required cuts.
Technological and Financial Challenges: Achieving the 1.5°C target hinges on rapid technological deployment, energy transition, and substantial financing for climate action. However, these remain constrained by a lack of coordination and resources.
Implications of Exceeding the 1.5°C Limit
Increased Frequency of Extreme Events: Exceeding 1.5°C would lead to more frequent and severe extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, and intense storms.
Impacts on Ecosystems and Biodiversity: Many species and ecosystems are sensitive to small temperature changes; coral reefs, for instance, face near-total collapse beyond 1.5°C warming.
Threats to Human Health and Livelihoods: Exceeding 1.5°C could lead to more heat-related illnesses, loss of productivity, water scarcity, and risks to food security, disproportionately affecting vulnerable populations.
Feedback Loops: Warming beyond 1.5°C may activate feedback loops (e.g., Arctic ice melt, permafrost thawing), which could lead to irreversible changes and make further warming difficult to control.
Should We Reconsider the Focus on the 1.5°C Target?
Adaptation vs. Mitigation: Given the increasing difficulty of limiting warming to 1.5°C, some argue for a shift in focus towards adaptation strategies to manage the unavoidable impacts of higher temperatures.
Realigning Expectations: While the 1.5°C target was critical to rally global climate action, a shift towards realistic, achievable goals may better support gradual but sustained progress, especially if mitigation pathways fall short.
Moving Towards a ‘Just Transition’: With a likely overshoot of the 1.5°C target, there is a greater need to ensure that climate adaptation and resilience measures do not disproportionately burden low-income countries and communities.
Science-Based Overshoot Scenarios: The IPCC and other scientific bodies continue to assess overshoot scenarios (e.g., temporarily exceeding 1.5°C and then returning below it later) to guide global climate strategies. However, returning to a lower temperature after an overshoot requires substantial and sustained negative emissions, which are currently unfeasible at scale.
Way forward:
Prioritize Scalable Emissions Reductions and Resilient Adaptation: Accelerate global transition to renewable energy, improve energy efficiency, and reduce methane and other non-CO₂ emissions. Simultaneously, invest in adaptation measures to help vulnerable communities manage the impacts of warming beyond 1.5°C.
Strengthen Climate Finance and International Cooperation: Mobilize substantial climate funding for developing nations to support both mitigation and adaptation efforts. Enhance cross-border technology sharing and policy alignment to enable collective, equitable climate action.
Mains PYQ:
Q ‘Climate change’ is a global problem. How India will be affected by climate change? How Himalayan and coastal states of India will be affected by climate change? (UPSC IAS/2017)
The Indian Army contingent has departed for Cijantung, Jakarta, Indonesia to take part in the 9th edition of India-Indonesia Joint Special Forces Exercise GARUD SHAKTI 24.
Note:
Exercise Garuda is a bilateral air forceexercise between the Indian Air Force and the French Air and Space Force.
Exercise Shakti is a biennial training event conducted alternatively in India and France.
AboutExercise GARUD SHAKTI 24
Details
What is it?
A bilateral joint special forces exercise between India and Indonesia aimed at enhancing military cooperation.
Held alternatively in India and Indonesia.
History
Initiated in 2012 as part of defense cooperation between India and Indonesia.
Objectives
• Enhance mutual understanding and cooperation between special forces
• Share best practices and experiences in counter-terrorism
• Conduct joint operations and drills to improve interoperability
Activities
• Joint planning and execution of special operations
• Orientation on advanced special forces skills
• Sharing information on weapons, tactics, and techniques
• Operations practice in diverse terrains
• Cultural exchanges between troops
Significance
• Strengthens bilateral relations
• Fosters trust between India and Indonesia
• Contributes to regional security and addresses terrorism challenges
• Enhances operational capabilities of both armies
Recent Edition
Ninth Edition (2024): Scheduled from November 1 to 12, focusing on enhancing understanding, cooperation, and interoperability.
PYQ:
[2024] Which of the following statements about the Exercise Mitra Shakti-2023 is/ are correct?
This was a joint military exercise between India and Bangladesh.
It commenced in Aundh (Pune).
Joint response during counter-terrorism operations was a goal of this operation.
The Indian Army contingent departed today for the 15th edition of VAJRA PRAHAR, a joint Special Forces exercise with the US Army.
AboutExercise VAJRA PRAHAR:
Details
What is it?
A joint Special Forces exercise between India and the US aimed at enhancing military cooperation.
Inception
Started in 2010 as part of bilateral defense cooperation between India and the US.
No exercises held between 2012 and 2015 and in 2020.
Frequency
Conducted annually, alternately in India and the United States.
15th Edition Dates
Scheduled from 2nd to 22nd November 2024 at the Orchard Combat Training Centre, Idaho, USA.
Participants
45 personnel from each country; Indian Army’s Special Forces and US Army’s Green Berets.
Objectives
• Enhance military cooperation
• Promote interoperability and tactical exchange
• Improve combined capabilities in joint operations
Key Focus Areas
• High physical fitness standards
• Joint planning and tactical drills
Significance
• Joint Team Mission Planning
• Reconnaissance Missions
• Use of Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS)
• Execution of Special Operations
• Roles of Joint Terminal Attack Controllers
• Psychological Warfare
A case of Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) was confirmed in the US.
About Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD)
CWD is a fatal, transmissible disease that affects the brain and central nervous system of deer, elk, and moose.
First identified in 1967, CWD is a prion disease where normal proteins misfold, leading to symptoms that eventually cause death.
Transmission occurs through animal-to-animal contact or contamination of feed or water by infected saliva or bodily waste.
Environmental contamination can occur through soil exposure from infected carcasses or bodily fluids.
High-risk areas include places where deer and elk gather closely, like feeding or watering sites.
Species affected: CWD does not naturally infect cows, other livestock, or pets.
Although no strong evidence exists that it can spread to humans, officials advise against eating meat from infected animals.
Symptoms of CWD:
Symptoms: Drastic weight loss, lack of coordination, drooling, listlessness, and excessive thirst. Infected animals may also show drooping ears and lose their fear of humans.
Prevention: To prevent the spread of CWD, avoid handling or eating sick animals, use synthetic lures, dispose of carcass waste in landfills, and report any sick or unusual deer to local wildlife authorities.
PYQ:
[2012] Vultures which used to be very common in Indian countryside some years ago are rarely seen nowadays. This is attributed to:
(a) The destruction of their nesting sites by new invasive species
(b) A drug used by cattle owners for treating their diseased cattle
(c) Scarcity of food available to them
(d) A widespread, persistent and fatal disease among them
The Indian government’s 2022 “Extended Producer Responsibility” guidelines mark progress, but a recent report states that stronger measures are needed to fully enforce the “polluter pays” principle in plastic waste management, per a recent CSE report.
What is the CSE report?
A CSE report is a publication by the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE), a prominent Delhi-based think tank focused on environmental research and advocacy.
CSE reports analyze pressing environmental issues, often providing data-driven insights and policy recommendations.
What is Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR)?
Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) is a policy approach where producers are given significant financial and sometimes operational responsibility for the treatment or disposal of post-consumer products.
The primary goal of EPR is to make manufacturers accountable for the entire lifecycle of their products, especially in terms of environmental impact, by ensuring that they take part in the collection, recycling, and disposal processes.
Extent of the misuse of EPR certificates in India’s plastic recycling industry
Fake Certificates: An assessment by the Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) and findings from the Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) revealed the generation of over 700,000 fake recycling certificates, indicating widespread fraud among plastic recyclers.
Certificate Inflation: Some processors and recyclers reported volumes vastly exceeding their registered capacities.
For example, cement plants engaged in end-of-life co-processing claimed to process 335.4 million tonnes annually, despite an actual capacity of only 11.4 million tonnes.
Undermined Trust: Fraudulent activities result in artificially low certificate prices, undermining the credibility of the EPR system and making it difficult to accurately track plastic waste management.
How does this impact environmental compliance and plastic waste management?
Underreported Waste Generation: PIBOs introduced 23.9 million tonnes of plastic packaging in April 2022, translating to an annual waste generation of approximately 8 million tonnes. However, CPCB’s estimate of 4.1 million tonnes of plastic waste generation annually indicates significant underreporting.
Limited Stakeholder Participation: The absence of key contributors, such as urban local bodies and informal waste collectors from the EPR system, reduces traceability and leaves much of the waste management burden on local governments.
Compromised Recycling Integrity: Due to low-cost fraudulent certificates, genuine recycling efforts suffer from underfunding and inadequate regulation, jeopardizing sustainable plastic waste management efforts and hindering the implementation of the “polluter pays” principle.
What measures can be implemented to improve oversight and accountability within the EPR framework?
Inclusion of Informal Sector: Recognizing and formalizing the role of informal waste collectors and urban local bodies within the EPR framework could enhance waste collection, segregation, and recycling rates, creating a more transparent value chain.
Combatting Fraud: Strengthening the auditing and certification process to identify and remove fraudulent recyclers and processors, supported by stricter legal and financial penalties, would help deter misuse.
Transparent Reporting: Enhancing the EPR portal to ensure accurate data collection on plastic waste generation and disposal, and setting fair prices for recycling certificates to prevent undervaluation.
Standardizing Products: By mandating uniform standards for plastic packaging materials and designs, recyclability could be improved, reducing contamination and making recycling more effective.
Enhanced Monitoring and Accountability: Strengthening CPCB and State Pollution Control Boards’ (SPCBs) monitoring capacity and ensuring consistent enforcement of guidelines at both the state and central levels.
