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GS Paper: GS3

  • Centre and RBI must rely on unconventional policies to manage finances better

    Context

    Amid Ukraine crisis and high oil prices, the larger concern is how the government and the RBI will navigate this period at a time of record government borrowings, and prevent domestic interest rates from hardening.

    The Triffin paradox in current context

    • It is ironic that even as emerging economies running current account deficits are getting punished by a depreciating currency and a hardening of interest rates, we are witnessing the US dollar appreciating and US treasuries strengthening.
    • The most common argument for such a macroeconomic paradox is named after the economist Robert Triffin (the Triffin Paradox).
    •  It postulates that the US current account deficit is purely a reflection of the US supplying large amounts of dollars to fulfil the world’s demand.
    • In other words, central banks across the world must build up claims on the US to back their domestic money growth.

    Dollar’s dominance

    • Former US Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke even extended this argument in 2005 to the “saving glut” proposition by espousing that emerging economies were accumulating foreign exchange reserves in dollars, and diverting domestic savings to buy US treasuries.
    • There are several counter arguments to this view that effectively state that the dominance of the US dollar is inevitable in the global financial architecture, and it is purely a fault of emerging market economies.

    Need for the unconventional tools to avoid the disruption by government borrowing

    This can be done in the following ways

    1] Spread the borrowing over four quarters after taking real-time view of disruption

    • Every year, the government front-loads its large borrowing programme by completing 60 per cent of the borrowings in the first half of the year.
    • This time, the RBI and the government may take a real-time view of disruptions and spread the borrowings over four quarters, keeping the initial two quarters light.
    • The borrowing programme can also be announced as per a quarterly schedule and there could be even two auctions during the week.
    • These steps could smoothen out the non-disruptive elements in government borrowings.

    2] Reconfigure the borrowing program

    • For example, as rates move up, banks tend to prefer short-term investments while insurance companies, provident funds and others prefer longer-term investments.
    • Given this, the borrowing schedule can be reconfigured with a higher proportion of short-and medium-tenor securities being offered in the initial months, while pushing back the longer tenor securities to the second half of the year.

    3] Push Small Savings Schemes

    • Third, small savings collections have significantly exceeded budget estimates.
    • The government could think of giving a push to small savings schemes such as the Sukanya Samriddhi Yojana (SSY).
    • The SSY has witnessed the registration of 2.82 crore girl children in the seven years since its inception in 2015, leaving enough room for further mop-up.
    • The newly opened accounts may even be given an enhanced savings limit in the first year to catch up for the years lost for these new additions.

    4] Listing of LIC

    • LIC currently holds around Rs 23.5 trillion worth of government bonds, higher than even than the RBI.
    • LIC’s G-sec holding is around 19 per cent, while in comparison the banking system’s ownership stands at around 38 per cent.
    • Thus LIC’s listing should augur well for the bond market as the insurance behemoth may have to deploy a greater share of inflows in safer avenues domestically.
    • This is a plausible option as banks may have to readjust their deposits into credit as the economic recovery gains momentum.

    Conclusion

    Rising oil prices have placed policymakers in an unenviable position. If higher oil prices are fully passed through, it will result in higher inflation and hence higher rates as a consequence.  In such a scenario it is best to follow the first option by using unconventional policy measures.

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  • What are Karewas?

    Kashmir’s highly fertile alluvial soil deposits called ‘karewas’ are being destroyed in the name of development, much to the peril of local people

    What are Karewas?

    • The Kashmir valley is an oval-shaped basin, 140 km long and 40 km wide, trending in the NNW–SSE direction.
    • It is an intermountain valley fill, comprising of unconsolidated gravel and mud.
    • A succession of plateaus is present above the Plains of Jhelum and its tributaries.
    • These plateau-like terraces are called ‘Karewas’ or ‘Vudr’ in the local language.
    • These plateaus are 13,000-18,000 metre-thick deposits of alluvial soil and sediments like sandstone and mudstone.
    • This makes them ideal for cultivation of saffron, almonds, apples and several other cash crops.

    Significance of Karewas

    • Today, the karewa sediments not only hold fossils and remnants of many human civilisations and habitations, but are also the most fertile spots in the valley.
    • Kashmir saffron, which received a Geographical Indication (GI) tag in 2020 for its longer and thicker stigmas, deep-red colour, high aroma and bitter flavour, is grown on these karewas.

    How are they formed?

    • The fertility of these patches is believed to be the result of their long history of formation.
    • When formed during the Pleistocene period (2.6 million years to 11,700 years ago), the Pir Panjal range blocked the natural drainage in the region and formed a lake spanning 5,000 sq km.
    • Over the next few centuries, the water receded, making way for the valley and the formation of the karewas between the mountains.

    Threats to Karewas

    • Despite its agricultural and archaeological importance, karewas are now being excavated to be used in construction.
    • Between 1995 and 2005, massive portions of karewas in Pulwama, Budgam and Baramulla districts were razed to the ground for clay for the 125-km-long Qazigund-Baramulla rail line.
    • The Srinagar airport is built on the Damodar karewa in Budgam.

     

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  • [pib] Petascale Supercomputer “PARAM Ganga” established at IIT Roorkee

    The National Supercomputing Mission (NSM) has now deployed “PARAM Ganga”, a supercomputer at IIT Roorkee, with a supercomputing capacity of 1.66 Petaflops.

    What is a Supercomputer?

    • A supercomputer is a computer with a high level of performance as compared to a general-purpose computer.
    • The performance of a supercomputer is commonly measured in floating-point operations per second (FLOPS) instead of million instructions per second (MIPS).
    • Since 2017, there are supercomputers which can perform over a hundred quadrillion FLOPS (peta FLOPS).
    • Since November 2017, all of the world’s fastest 500 supercomputers run Linux-based operating systems.

    PARAM Ganga

    • PARAM Ganga is designed and commissioned by C-DAC under Phase 2 of the build approach of the NSM.
    • It is based on a heterogeneous and hybrid configuration of Intel Xeon Cascade lake processors, and NVIDIA Tesla V100.
    • There are 312 (CPU+GPU+HM) nodes with a total peak computing capacity of 1.67 (CPU+GPU+HM) PFLOPS performance.
    • The cluster consists of compute nodes connected with the Mellanox (HDR) InfiniBand interconnect network.
    • The system uses the Lustre parallel file system and operating system is CentOS 7.x.

    Back2Basics: National Supercomputing Mission (NSM)

    • NSM is a proposed plan by GoI to create a cluster of seventy supercomputers connecting various academic and research institutions across India.
    • In April 2015 the government approved the NSM with a total outlay of Rs.4500 crore for a period of 7 years.
    • The mission was set up to provide the country with supercomputing infrastructure to meet the increasing computational demands of academia, researchers, MSMEs, and startups by creating the capability design, manufacturing, of supercomputers indigenously in India.
    • Currently there are four supercomputers from India in Top 500 list of supercomputers in the world.

    Aims and objectives

    • The target of the mission was set to establish a network of supercomputers ranging from a few Tera Flops (TF) to Hundreds of Tera Flops (TF) and three systems with greater than or equal to 3 Peta Flops (PF) in academic and research institutions of National importance across the country by 2022.
    • This network of Supercomputers envisaging a total of 15-20 PF was approved in 2015 and was later revised to a total of 45 PF (45000 TFs), a jump of 6 times more compute power within the same cost and capable of solving large and complex computational problems.

    When did India initiate its efforts to build supercomputers?

    • India’s supercomputer program was initiated in the late 1980s, when the United States ceased the export of a Cray Supercomputer due to technology embargos.
    • This resulted in India setting up C-DAC in 1988, which in 1991, unveiled the prototype of PARAM 800, benchmarked at 5 Gflops. This supercomputer was the second-fastest in the world at that time.
    • Since June 2018, the USA’s Summit is the fastest supercomputer in the world, taking away this position from China.
    • As of January 2018, Pratyush and Mihir are the fastest supercomputers in India with a maximum speed of Peta Flops.

    What are the phases of the National Supercomputing Mission?

    Phase I:

    • In the first phase of the NSM, parts of the supercomputers are imported and assembled in India.
    • A total of 6 supercomputers are to be installed in this phase.
    • The first supercomputer that was assembled indigenously is called Param Shivay. It was installed in IIT (BHU) located in Varanasi.
    • Similar systems, Param Shakti (IIT Kharagpur) and Param Brahma (IISER, Pune) were also later installed within the country.
    • The rest will be installed at IIT Kanpur, IIT Hyderabad and Jawaharlal Nehru Institute of Advanced Studies (JNIAS).

    Phase II:

    • The supercomputers that are installed so far are about 60% indigenous.
    • The 11 systems that are going to be installed in the next phase will have processors designed by the Centre for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC) and will have a cumulative capacity of 10 petaflops.
    • These new systems are to be constructed more cost-effectively than the previous ones.
    • One of the 11 proposed supercomputers will be installed
    • at C-DAC exclusively for small and medium enterprises so that they can train employees as well as work on supercomputers at a very low cost.

    Phase III:

    • The third phase aims to build fully indigenous supercomputers.
    • The government had also approved a project to develop a cryogenic cooling system that rapidly dispels the heat generated by a computing chip. This will be jointly built together by IIT-Bombay and C-DAC.

     

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  • Stagflation’ in India

    Reports suggest that crude oil prices soared and touched almost $140 per barrel mark amid Russian invasion of Ukraine. This has posed a risk of causing Stagflation in India.

    What is Stagflation?

    • Stagflation is a stagnant growth and persistently high inflation. It, thus, describes a rather rare and curious condition of an economy.
    • Iain Macleod, a Conservative Party MP in the United Kingdom, is known to have coined the phrase during his speech on the UK economy in November 1965.
    • Typically, rising inflation happens when an economy is booming — people are earning lots of money, demanding lots of goods and services and as a result, prices keep going up.
    • When the demand is down and the economy is in the doldrums, by the reverse logic, prices tend to stagnate (or even fall).
    • But stagflation is a condition where an economy experiences the worst of both worlds — the growth rate is largely stagnant (along with rising unemployment) and inflation is not only high but persistently so.

    How does one get into Stagflation?

    • The best-known case of stagflation is what happened in the early and mid-1970s.
    • The OPEC (Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries), which works like a cartel, decided to cut crude oil supply.
    • This sent oil prices soaring across the world; they were up by almost 70%.
    • This sudden oil price shock not only raised inflation everywhere, especially in the western economies but also constrained their ability to produce, thus hampering their economic growth.
    • High inflation and stalled growth (and the resulting unemployment) created stagflation.

    Is India facing stagflation?

    • In the recent past, this question has gained prominence since late 2019, when retail inflation spiked due to unseasonal rains causing a spike in food inflation.
    • In December 2019, it was also becoming difficult for the government to deny that India’s growth rate was witnessing a secular deceleration.
    • As revised estimates, released in January end, now show, India’s GDP growth rate decelerated from over 8% in 2016-17 to just 3.7% in 2019-20.
    • However, the answer to this question in December 2019 was a clear no.
    • For one, in absolute terms, India’s GDP was still growing, albeit at a progressively slower rate.

    Why this is a cause of concern?

    • Russia is the world’s second-largest oil producer and, as such, if its oil is kept out of the market because of sanctions, it will not only lead to prices spiking, but also mean they will stay that way for long.
    • While India is not directly involved in the conflict, it will be badly affected if oil prices move higher and stay that way.
    • India imports more than 84% of its total oil demand. At one level, that puts into perspective all the talk of being Atmanirbhar (or self-reliant).
    • Without these imports, India’s economy would come to a sudden halt — both metaphorically as well as actually.

    Expected impact on Indian Economy

    • Higher inflation would rob Indians of their purchasing power, thus bringing down their overall demand.
    • In other words, people are not demanding enough for the economy to grow fast.
    • Private consumer demand is the biggest driver of growth in India.
    • Such aggregate demand — the monetary sum of all the soaps, phones, cars, refrigerators, holidays etc. that we all spend on in our personal capacity — accounts for more than 55% of India’s total GDP.
    • Higher prices will reduce this demand, which is already struggling to come back up to the pre-Covid level.
    • Fewer goods and services being demanded will then disincentivise businesses from investing in new capacities, which, in turn, will exacerbate the unemployment crisis and lead to even lower incomes.

    Back2Basics: Inflation and its impact

    • Depression: It is Economic depression is a sustained, long-term downturn in economic
    • Deflation: It is the general fall in the price level over a period of time.
    • Disinflation: It is the fall in the rate of inflation or a slower rate of inflation. Example: a fall in the inflation rate from 8% to 6%.
    • Reflation: It is the act of stimulating the economy by increasing the money supply or by reducing taxes, seeking to bring the economy back up to the long-term trend, following a dip in the business cycle. It is the opposite of disinflation.
    • Skewflation: It is the skewed rise in the price of some items while remaining item prices remain the same. E.g. Seasonal rise in the price of onions.
    • Stagflation: The situation of rising prices along with falling growth and employment, is called stagflation. Inflation accompanied by an economic recession.

     

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  • Protocols for social media

    Context

    The lack of clear systems within social media companies that claim to connect the world is appalling. It is time that they should have learned from multiple instances, as recent as the Israeli use of force in Palestine.

    Role of social media platforms in the context of conflict

    • There was no unpredictability over conflicts in the information age spilling over to social media platforms.
    • In the context of conflict, social media platforms have multiple challenges that go unaddressed.
    • Threat of information warfare: Content moderation remains a core area of concern, where, essentially, information warfare can be operationalised and throttled.
    • Their sheer magnitude and narrative-building abilities place a degree of undeniable onus on them.
    • After years of facing and acknowledging these challenges, most social media giants are yet to create institutional capacity to deal with such situations.
    • Additionally, they also act as a conduit for further amplification of content on other platforms.
    • Major social media platforms such as Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter also provide space for extremist views from fringe platforms, where the degree of direct relation to the user generating such content is blurred.

    Technology falls short

    • Misinformation and disinformation are thorny challenges to these platforms.
    • Algorithmic solutions are widely put to use to address them.
    • These include identification of content violative of their terms, reducing the visibility of content deemed inappropriate by the algorithm, and in the determination of instances reported to be violative of the terms by other users.
    • More often than not in critical cases, these algorithmic solutions have misfired, harming the already resource-scarce party.
    • The operational realities of these platforms require that the safety of users be prioritised to address pressing concerns, even at the cost of profits.

    Lessons for India

    • The lack of coherent norms on state behaviour in cyberspace as well as the intersection of business, cyberspace, and state activity is an opportunity for India.
    • Indian diplomats can initiate a new track of conversations here which can benefit the international community at large.
    • India should ensure that it initiates these conversations through well-informed diplomats.
    • Finally, it is necessary to reassess the domestic regulatory framework on social media platforms.
    • Transparency and accountability need to be foundational to the regulation of social media platforms in the information age.

    Conclusion

    It is in our national interest and that of a rule-based global polity that social media platforms be dealt with more attention across spheres than with a range of reactionary measures addressing immediate concerns alone.

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  • How to handle impact of Ukrainian crisis on India’s energy sector

    Context

    The Ukraine crisis will affect India’s energy landscape in many ways. This article analyses the impact and suggest the policy measures.

    The trajectory of oil prices

    • The inflation-adjusted price of Brent crude is $83/bbl (as of writing, the nominal price is $116 / bbl), which is lower than the peak of $145/ bbl in 2008 and the average price that year of $100/bbl.
    •  In other words, prices could rise much further and we would still not be in uncharted waters.
    • Factors affecting prices: The price trajectory will depend on the duration of the conflict, its impact on global energy demand, countervailing supply measures (for example, drawdown of strategic reserves, diversion of US LNG supplies to Europe, the Iranian nuclear deal which, if signed, could release up to 1 mbd of Iranian crude into the market) and whether in all this mayhem, the pipeline infrastructure currently feeding Russian gas into Europe remains operational.
    • Impact on India’s earnings: Our earnings from petroleum products (diesel, petrol, naphtha) will be adversely impacted.
    • In 2021, these products generated $39 billion in revenue and at 14 per cent, they accounted for the highest share of export earnings.

    Impact on India’s energy assets in Russia

    • ONGC has a 26 per cent stake in the Vankor oil field, a 20 per cent stake in the Sakhalin-1 LNG/oil export complex.
    • All these holdings have eroded substantially in value.
    • In India, Rosneft (the Russian national oil company) operates the 20 mtpa refinery in Vadinar through Nayara Energy.
    • Nayara is not sanctioned but the traders of crude/products might worry about transacting with an Indian company owned by a sanctioned Russian entity.

    Four emergent energy trends that would affect India

    • 1] Energy ties of Russia and China: Only last week, for instance, Gazprom signed off on an agreement to build a second gas pipeline to China christened “Power of Siberia 2”.
    • The “Power of Siberia 1” pipeline has been pumping gas into China since 2019.
    • 2] Emergence of US as second largest producer: The emergence of the US as the largest producer of oil in the world and potentially the largest exporter of LNG.
    • It has the capacity to blunt the impact of a supply shortfall but as it is controlled by profit-maximising private corporates.
    • 3] The ability of Saudi Arabia to swing the crude oil market: It is the one member of OPEC plus with significant spares, low cost, producible capacity (approx 3 mbd) of crude oil.
    • The US has pressured Saudi to bring this volume into the market but they have, as yet, not buckled.
    • 4] China’s dominance over rare earth metals: The chokehold of China over the rare earths, minerals and components that are required to effect the transition to a clean energy system.

    Suggestions for India

    • 1] Take into account uncertainty: Frame the polic around the expectation of continuing volatility.
    • 2] Strategic reserves: Build up strategic reserves to safeguard against the unexpected.
    • 3] Transnational pipelines: Revive conversations with Turkmenistan and Iran about a transnational gas pipeline.
    • 4] Reduce dependence on China for minerals and components required for the transition to clean energy: Fast forward efforts to decouple the supply chain dependence on China for the minerals and components required for the clean energy transition.
    •  And, finally bring in psychologists to get a better fix on the logic that drives the decisions of the energy autocrats in Russia, Saudi Arabia and China.

    Conclusion

    The Ukraine crisis throws up many learnings. But one needs particular emphasis. It is not enough to read the tea leaves of supply, demand and geopolitical trends to understand the trajectory of the energy market.

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  • Filling the physical gaps in India’s digital push

    Context

    A lot has been written about the emphasis on “digital” in the 2022 Union Budget. But one aspect that hasn’t been talked about as much is the importance given in the budget to digital public infrastructure (DPI).

    Significance of digital public infrastructure (DPI) in India

    • A global trendsetter: India is seen as a global trendsetter in the DPI movement, having set up multiple large-scale DPIs like Aadhaar, UPI and sector-specific platforms like DIGIT for eGovernance and DIKSHA for education.
    • Improvement in public service delivery: These DPIs have helped push the frontier of public service delivery.
    • Four key announcements in Budget: This year’s budget adds to the growing discourse on DPIs by making four key announcements:
    • 1] In health, an open platform with digital registries, a unique health identity and a robust consent framework;
    • 2] In skilling, a Digital Ecosystem for Skilling and Livelihood (DESH-Stack) to help citizens upskill through online training;
    • 3] a Unified Logistics Interface Platform (ULIP) to streamline movement of goods across modes of transport; and for travel,
    • 4] In mobility, an “open source” mobility stack for facilitating seamless travel of passengers.
    • Analysis by the Centre for Digital Economy Policy Research (C-DEP) estimates that national digital ecosystems could add over 5 per cent to India’s GDP.

    Suggestions

    • But important design considerations must be set right if we are to truly unlock the value of these platforms.

    1] Differentiating between tech and non-tech layer

    • We need to differente between the “tech” and “non-tech” layers of our digital infrastructure.
    • While India seems to have made significant headway on the “tech” layers, the “non-tech” layers of community engagement and governance need a lot more work.
    • The combination of these three layers is what is critical to making tech work for everyone.
    • Together, they embody what we call the open digital ecosystems (ODE) approach.

    2] Get non-tech layers right

    • To unleash the true potential of India’s ODEs, we need to get the “non-tech” layers right, by prioritising principles around data protection, universal access and accountability.
    • In this regard, three specific non-tech levers are critical.
    • 1] Data protection: Protecting the data of all users and giving them agency over how their data gets used.
    • The passage of a robust Data Protection Bill is imperative.
    • But we also need to go beyond the mere requirement of “consent”.
    • 2] Address digital divide: It is important to address the digital divide.
    • Research by ORF, for instance, shows that Indian women are 15 per cent less likely to own a mobile phone and 33 per cent less likely to use mobile internet services than men.
    • So, we need a “phygital” approach that provides services through both online and offline options and strong grievance redressal mechanisms.
    • 3] Institutional mechanism: As we push the frontier on digitisation, India must also focus on developing anchor institutions and robust governance frameworks.
    • Just as Aadhaar is anchored by UIDAI under an Act of Parliament, and the Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission is anchored by the National Health Authority, every new ODE requires an accountable institutional anchor. 
    • These institutions are critical for setting standards, ensuring a level playing field and safeguarding consumer interest.

    Consider the question “India is seen as a global trendsetter in the DPI movement, having set up multiple large-scale Digital Public Infrastructures(DPI). List the various DPIs in various sectors in India. Suggest the changes needed in the non-tech layers of these DPIs.”

    Conclusion

    From Aadhaar and UPI to DBT and CoWin, India’s tech stacks are grabbing global attention. It is now critical to bring the gaze on to the non-tech layers of the stack, so that the potential of these platforms can be unlocked for every Indian.

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  • Tiger Density in India

    Preliminary findings of a study by the Wildlife Institute of India (WII) suggest that the density of tigers in the Sunderbans may have reached the carrying capacity of the mangrove forests, leading to frequent dispersals and a surge in human-wildlife conflict.

    Tiger Density of India

    • In the Terai and Shivalik hills habitat — think Corbett tiger reserve, for example — 10-16 tigers can survive in 100 sq km.
    • This slides to 7-11 tigers per 100 sq km in the reserves of north-central Western Ghats such as Bandipur, and to 6-10 tigers per 100 sq km in the dry deciduous forests, such as Kanha, of central India.
    • The correlation between prey availability and tiger density is fairly established.
    • There is even a simple linear regression explaining the relationship in the 2018 All-India Tiger report that put the carrying capacity in the Sunderbans “at around 4 tigers” per 100 sq km.
    • A joint Indo-Bangla study in 2015 pegged the tiger density at 2.85 per 100 sq km after surveying eight blocks spanning 2,913 sq km across the international borders in the Sunderbans.

    Conflict: cause or effect

    • The consequence, as classical theories go, is frequent dispersal of tigers leading to higher levels of human-wildlife conflict in the reserve peripheries.
    • Physical (space) and biological (forest productivity) factors have an obvious influence on a reserve’s carrying capacity of tigers.
    • What also plays a crucial role is how the dispersal of wildlife is tolerated by people — from the locals who live around them to policymakers who decide management strategies.
    • More so when different land uses overlap and a good number of people depend on forest resources for livelihood.

    Why tiger corridors are not a solution?

    • But though vital for genes to travel and avoid a population bottleneck, wildlife corridors may not be the one-stop solution for conflict.
    • First, not all dispersing tigers will chance upon corridors simply because many will find territories of other tigers between them and such openings.
    • Even the lucky few that may take those routes are likely to wander to the forest edges along the way.
    • Worse, the corridors may not lead to viable forests in reserves such as Sunderbans, bounded by the sea and villages.

    Way ahead

    • Artificially boosting the prey base in a reserve is often an intuitive solution but it can be counter-productive.
    • To harness the umbrella effect of tigers for biodiversity conservation, it is more beneficial to increase areas occupied by tigers.
    • For many, the prescription is to create safe connectivity among forests and allow tigers to disperse safely to new areas.

    Try this PYQ from CSP 2020:

    Q.Among the following Tiger Reserves, which one has the largest area under “Critical Tiger Habitat” ?

    (a) Corbett

    (b) Ranthambore

    (c) Nagarjunasagar- Srisailam

    (d) Sunderbans

     

    [wpdiscuz-feedback id=”3sm90ja3rc” question=”Please leave a feedback on this” opened=”1″]Post your answers here.[/wpdiscuz-feedback]

     

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  • Ex Vayu Shakti 2022

    The Indian Air Force (IAF) has decided to postpone its firepower demonstration, Ex Vayu Shakti, scheduled in the Pokhran ranges in Rajasthan.

    Exercise Vayu Shakti

    • It is conducted once in three years which is participated by fighters, helicopters, force enablers and support systems.
    • The aim of the exercise is to detect and identify targets and neutralise them in day, dusk and night capability demonstrations.
    • The Indian Air Force showcases repower capability of indigenously developed aircrafts and its missile arsenal in this exercise.
    • Fighter aircraft including Jaguar, Rafale, Sukhoi-30, MIG-29, light combat aircraft Tejas, MIG-21 Bison, Hawk 32, M200 participates in the exercise.

    Also read

    Various Defence Exercises in News

     

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  • Need for political will to tackle climate change

    Context

    Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report released on Monday its sixth assessment report.

    Bleak assessment of our future

    • In its sixth assessment report, titled ‘Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability’, the IPCC discusses the increasing extreme heat, rising oceans, melting glaciers, falling agricultural productivity, resultant food shortages and increase in diseases like dengue and zika.
    • Failed climate leadership: Antonio Guterres, the United Nations Secretary General, quoted in The New York Times, describes the IPCC report as being “an atlas of human suffering and a damning indictment of failed climate leadership.”
    • The IPCC warns that should our planet get warmer than 1.5 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial times (we are at 1.1 degrees at present), then there will be irreversible impact on “ecosystems with low resilience” such as polar, mountain and coastal ecosystems “impacted by glacier melt, and higher sea level rise”.
    • This will cause devastation to “infrastructure in low-lying coastal settlements, associated livelihoods and even erosion of cultural and spiritual values.”
    • The increased heat will lead to an increase in diseases like diabetes, circulatory and respiratory conditions, as well as mental health challenges.

    Impact on India

    • Climate “maladaptation”: The IPCC also highlights that climate “maladaptation” will especially affect “marginalised and vulnerable groups adversely, indigenous people, ethnic minorities, low-income households and informal settlements” and those in rural areas.
    • Therefore, India, with a majority of its people falling in these categories, will be especially devastated.
    • The IPCC highlights India as a vulnerable hotspot, with several regions and cities facing climate change phenomena like flooding, sea-level rise and heatwaves.
    • For instance, Mumbai is at high risk of sea-level rise and flooding, and Ahmedabad faces the danger of heat waves — these phenomena are already underway in both cities.
    • Vector-borne and water-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue will be on the rise in sub-tropical regions, like parts of Punjab, Assam and Rajasthan.
    • When the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases, the grains we consume, including wheat and rice, will have diminished nutritional quality.
    • Over the past 30 years, major crop yields have decreased by 4-10 per cent globally due to climate change.
    • Consequently, India, which continues to be predominantly agrarian, is likely to be especially hurt.
    • Urban India is at greater risk than other areas with a projected population of 877 million by 2050 nearly double of 480 million in 2020.
    • The concentration of population in these cities will make them extremely vulnerable to climate change.

    Conclusion

    Fighting climate change requires fiscal expenditure and policy changes fuelled by political will, which will reap results in a decade or so. Yet, our political class has no cohesive and urgent policy roadmap to combat rising emissions and our diminishing life spans.

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