PYQ Relevance:[UPSC 2018] In what ways would the ongoing US-Iran Nuclear Pact Controversy affect the national interest of India? How should India respond to this situation? Linkage: This question directly addresses a central component of the “U.S.-West Asia calculus”—the US-Iran dynamic. The article explicitly states that the U.S. conducted military strikes against Iranian nuclear installations and that the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) was focused on the situation in West Asia and how to deter Iran with Pakistan’s support. |
Mentor’s Comment: On June 22, U.S. President Donald Trump launched The USA recently carried out military attacks on three of Iran’s nuclear sites—an action that could influence the future of West Asia for a long time. on three of Iran’s nuclear sites—an action that could shape the future of West Asia for years. This decision may trigger a long-term conflict between the U.S. and Iran, but it also has major links to South Asia. Just days before the strikes, Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir had an unusual private lunch with President Trump at the White House—something rare for anyone who isn’t a head of state. This points to deeper strategic changes. At the same time, Pakistan is facing rising sectarian tensions, serious economic troubles, and higher defense spending. Its sudden border closure with Iran and growing support from the U.S. raise important questions about Pakistan’s new role in the Iran-Israel conflict and what it could mean inside the country.
Today’s editorial looks at how the USA’s military strikes on three Iranian nuclear sites and Pakistan’s Army Chief Asim Munir’s rare private lunch with President Trump could affect international relations. This is useful for GS Paper II (International Relations) in the UPSC mains exam.
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Let’s learn!
Why in the News?
The USA recently carried out military attacks on three of Iran’s nuclear sites—an action that could influence the future of West Asia for a long time.
What could be the impact of a U.S. strike on Iran have on West Asia and the subcontinent?
- Escalation of Conflict: The strike may trigger a prolonged confrontation between Iran and Western allies, increasing instability in West Asia. Eg: Past U.S. interventions in Iraq (2003) and Libya (2011) resulted in regime change but long-term chaosand extremist expansion.
- Realignment of Regional Powers: Countries like Pakistan may shift alliances to support U.S. actions, potentially isolating Iran and affecting critical land-based trade routes. Eg: Pakistan closed its land border with Iran in June 2025, limiting Iran’s trade access to South Asia.
- Security Tensions: U.S. engagement with Pakistan’s military leadership amid regional conflict could embolden Pakistan strategically, raising concerns for India.
Why is General Munir’s meeting with Trump strategically significant?
- Geopolitical Signalling to India and Iran: The timing and optics of the meeting send a message to both India and Iran about Pakistan’s rising strategic relevance in U.S. calculations. Eg: Coinciding with Pakistan closing borders with Iran and India-Pak tensions easing, the visit reshapes regional power equations.
How do Pakistan-Iran ties affect regional dynamics?
- Border Tensions and Proxy Conflicts: Pakistan and Iran share a volatile border in Balochistan, where militant groups operate across both sides, causing frequent skirmishes. Eg: In early 2024, both countries exchanged missile strikes after attacks on Iranian security forces allegedly by groups based in Pakistan.
- Geopolitical Rivalry in Afghanistan: Both countries compete for influence in Afghanistan, affecting regional alliances and the balance of power in Central Asia. Eg: Iran backs Shia groups, while Pakistan supports Sunni factions, intensifying sectarian divides and shaping Afghanistan’s internal politics.
- Strategic Role in U.S.-Iran Tensions: Pakistan could play a critical role in isolating Iran, especially during a U.S.-Iran conflict, by shutting trade routes and cooperating with U.S. military interests. Eg: On June 15, 2025, Pakistan closed its border with Iran, coinciding with the Pakistani Army Chief’s visit to Washington, signaling alignment with U.S. strategy.
Where does Pakistan stand economically amid rising defence spending?
- High Debt Burden : Interest payments consume 74% of revenue, leaving little for other public services. Eg: In FY2025‑26, PKR (Pakistan’s revenue) 8.207 trillion was allocated to interest, out of PKR 11.07 trillion in total revenue.
- Defense Budget Surge at Development’s Expense: Despite an overall cut in spending, defense gets a 17% increase, while developmental funds are halved. Eg: Defense allocation in FY2025‑26 is PKR 3.29 trillion, whereas development spending dropped to PKR 1 trillion.
- Heavy Reliance on Bailouts: Pakistan depends on IMF packages and debt rollovers to meet fiscal commitments amid shrinking revenues. Eg: After its 25th IMF bailout, Pakistan secured PKR 1.4 billion in climate resilience funds, along with PKR 16 billion in loan rollovers.
What are the steps taken by the Indian government?
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What should India do? (Way forward)
- Strengthen Strategic Autonomy in West Asia: India must maintain balanced relations with both Iran and the U.S., ensuring that its energy security and regional interests are safeguarded. Eg: Continue investing in Chabahar Port, a strategic counter to China-backed Gwadar, while also deepening ties with the Gulf monarchies for energy and investment.
- Enhance Intelligence and Military Vigilance along Western Borders: With increasing Pakistan-U.S. military cooperation and Iran-Pakistan tensions, India must stay alert to any spillover effects. Eg: Boost surveillance in Jammu & Kashmir, especially given General Munir’s renewed rhetoric on Kashmir and increased Pakistani defense spending.
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