A middle power moment in a fragmenting world

Why in the News

The world is no longer defined only by the pull of superpowers or by Cold War blocs, but by a wider set of middle powers. Canada’s Prime Minister called at Davos in January for middle powers to tackle the international system’s challenges together. Yet global institutions have changed far less than the world itself.

What is a middle power?

1. What it is: Not a great power, a middle power has enough weight to matter globally and enough autonomy to act alone. Like a swing voter, it tilts outcomes.
2. Typical attributes: A middle power has regional influence, a growing economy, credible diplomatic networks and the will to act beyond its neighbourhood.
3. Source of influence: Middle powers draw influence from strategic position, economic weight and diplomatic agility. They use it by building coalitions and setting agendas, not by coercion.
4. Who counts: India, Brazil, Canada, Egypt, South Africa, Japan, Indonesia, Türkiye, Mexico and Germany. South Korea, the Netherlands, the United Arab Emirates, Nigeria and Qatar qualify in specific areas.
5. The takeaway: The definition stays loose, but these states share a sense that the existing order neither reflects their aspirations nor accommodates their agency.

Why has the old order opened space for them?

1. Unchanged UNSC: The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) keeps its 1945 structure. Since then empires have ended, new nations have formed and economic power has shifted.
2. Weakened legitimacy: Inadequate representation and inconsistent adherence to international law erode the order’s legitimacy. States asked to defend a rules-based order ask which rules bind the powerful.
3. Reform, not demolition: Dismantling institutions would destroy protections middle powers need, so their task is to make the order more representative and credible and keep its capacity to restrain power.
4. Rule-takers to rule-makers: Middle powers no longer accept being “rule-takers” and are not yet “rule-makers”. They champion development, climate justice, equitable trade and technology access for the Global South.
5. Leadership gap: A superpower’s commitment to the system it built is now in question, so demand for cooperation has grown as uncontested leadership shrinks.

How are middle powers using this space?

1. Room to act: Paralysed multilateral bodies and fragmented supply chains limit collective action. Doubts about post-war assumptions also open space for new initiatives.
2. Tools: Middle powers build issue-based coalitions and mediate where great powers are distrusted. They set norms in digital governance, climate finance, health security and development cooperation.
3. Bridging leverage: Middle powers speak to the West and the Global South at once, a leverage neither superpowers nor smaller states hold.
4. Country instances: India led the G-20 in 2023, Brazil pursued climate diplomacy and South Africa pressed for vaccine equity. Germany stabilised Europe and engaged the Indo-Pacific.
5. Mixed groupings: The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), BRICS, the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC), the Belt and Road Initiative and the International North-South Transport Corridor join middle and great powers.

Where does India fit?

1. Multi-alignment: India pursues advantageous relationships with multiple partners, a preference shaped by the turbulence of the past year or two.
2. China as threat: Brazil or Indonesia see China as an economic engine. India faces it across an undefined border, so ties with the United States (U.S.) and Russia are necessary.
3. U.S. uncertainty: The U.S. midterm results have added new uncertainty about Washington’s posture in world affairs.

Challenges

1. No unified bloc: Middle powers shape norms for their own camps, so their coalitions stay issue-bound and short-lived.
2. Exposure to shocks: Middle powers are more vulnerable than superpowers to economic shocks, which can cut their influence.
3. Slow institutional change: The institutions that govern the world have changed far less than the world itself, which limits what middle powers can win inside them.

Way Forward

1. Issue coalitions: India should build standing coalitions with other middle powers on digital governance, climate finance and health security.
2. Reform from within: Press for UNSC expansion reflecting post-1945 shifts rather than backing parallel bodies.
3. Global South convening: Use G-20 style convening to carry developing-country positions into Western forums.

Conclusion

Middle powers gain room when institutions stall and great powers falter, yet those same conditions expose them to shocks they cannot absorb alone. Whether India turns its convening role into durable coalitions, and keeps hedging between rival great powers, will decide if this moment becomes lasting influence.

Matching Previous Year Question

“[2026, GS2, 10 marks] “BRICS acts as a powerful counterweight in global governance, actively amplifying the voice and influence of the Global South.” Explain the role of BRICS in projecting itself as an alternative to other groupings.”