Why in the News
China’s rapid rise and India’s slower growth over the past decade have raised questions about India’s global place. The External Affairs Minister calls India a “power in the middle”, not a “middle power”. India’s economic record suggests it should accept middle-power status in a “bi-multipolar” world for now.
Why does economic performance shape India’s global status?
- Status and economy: Economic status alone does not define power, but it matters. The world’s view of India changed around 2000, as its economy and information technology skills drew attention.
- Earlier moral stature: A poorer India was once seen as a “great power” as the developing world’s first post-colonial democracy.
- Growth record: India’s long-term growth rate rose steadily, nearly doubling between 1950 and 2010.
- Strategic recognition: A 2000 paper for the National Security Advisory Board, “Strategic Consequences of India’s Economic Performance”, tied global status to economic performance.
- The takeaway: In the long run, economic capability decides how much weight the world gives India.
How did the world’s view of India change after 2000?
- BRIC report: Goldman Sachs’ 2001 BRIC report on emerging economies clubbed India with China, Brazil and Russia.
- “Two engines”: By 2007, Singapore’s founder-mentor Lee Kuan Yew described China and India as “two engines” that would power Asia’s rise.
- Sanctions survived: The economy withstood sanctions by the United States (U.S.) and its allies after India’s 1998 nuclear tests.
Why has scepticism about India’s rise grown?
- Unmet claims: Claims of India as a “vishwaguru” and premature economic targets went unfulfilled. Officials claimed India was the third largest economy when it is still the sixth largest.
- Western expectations: Western states worried about China hoped India would join them against it, and India’s joining the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) fed that hope.
- China’s take-off: Between 2010 and 2025, China’s economy took off and it became a knowledge power with advanced science and technology.
- Domestic politics: Majoritarian politics at home has also damaged the narrative of India’s rise.
- Stalled growth: Growth has not risen much above its long-term average. Viksit Bharat by 2047, a developed India, needs growth well above 8% a year for a decade.
What role should India play in a bi-multipolar world?
- Bi-multipolarity: The U.S. and China dominate with global reach, and several middle powers form the many other poles. India gains nothing by posing as a third big power.
- Voice of the weak: An India that speaks for the weak, not one courting the powerful, will win the votes for a United Nations Security Council (UNSC) seat.
- Middle-power alliances: India should build alliances with Russia, the European Union (EU), the United Kingdom (UK), Japan, Brazil, South Africa and other like-minded states.
- Stability with both: Both the U.S. and China challenge India, and neither can be used against the other, so stable ties with both stay a priority.
Challenges
- Credibility deficit: Unmet official claims reduce the weight partners give to India’s stated targets.
- Competing expectations: Western partners hope India will side against China, yet India cannot use either the U.S. or China against the other.
- Contested seat: Election to the UNSC needs broad support from developing countries.
Way Forward
- Global South agenda: Lead on developing-country demands in global forums to build votes for the UNSC bid.
- Issue partnerships: Deepen trade and technology partnerships with the EU, Japan, Brazil and South Africa.
- Dual channels: Keep regular high-level contact with both Washington and Beijing so neither relationship slides.
Conclusion
India’s standing will rise with its economy, not with claims made ahead of it, so middle-power status is a starting point, not a demotion. Whether growth breaks clear of its long-term average will decide when its time comes.
Key numbers
- Long-term growth: 3.5% a year (1950-80) to about 6% (1980-2010).
- Peak growth: Over 8% a year during 2003-2010.
- Missed income target: National income of $5 trillion by 2020, an official claim that went unmet.
What is a G2?
- Meaning: A G2 is a description of a world order run in effect by the U.S. and China. Only these two can shape economic order, technology standards and supply chains.
- No machinery: A G2 is not an institution and has no charter or secretariat. It does not mean the two agree, only that their disagreements set everyone else’s terms.
- Managed rivalry: Neither can escape the other’s market, technology or capital, so the rivalry is managed through high-level contact, not settled.
Matching Previous Year Question
“[2026, GS2, 10 marks] “BRICS acts as a powerful counterweight in global governance, actively amplifying the voice and influence of the Global South.” Explain the role of BRICS in projecting itself as an alternative to other groupings.”
