BJP has no bad option, Congress has no good option

Why in the News

The government’s promise to keep every State’s share of seats in a Lok Sabha enlarged to 850 gave way to Bills that distributed seats on the 2011 Census, and those Bills failed. The Congress president has since written to the Prime Minister a fourth time since April, seeking an all party meeting before fresh delimitation proposals are finalised. The Centre has disclosed no proposal.

What is actually being decided?

1. The real question: The dispute is over how much the Lok Sabha grows and how seats are divided among States, not whether delimitation happens.
2. Women’s reservation is settled: One third of Lok Sabha and Assembly seats will be reserved for women at the next delimitation, whatever the total.
3. The default rule: As the Constitution stands, seats must be reallocated among States on the 2027 Census.
4. The takeaway: Keeping State shares in a bigger House needs a constitutional amendment, and so does freezing the House at 543 seats. Without one, population decides.

Why does the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) want a bigger Lok Sabha?

1. No gain from proportions alone: Raising the total and holding each State’s share leaves relative strength unchanged, so the stated position brings no evident advantage.
2. Keeping the South on board: Marginalising peninsular India further would damage its claim to be a national party with legitimacy in every region.
3. Room for the women’s quota: Adding half as many seats again lets the women’s reservation be implemented without displacing sitting male members.
4. Space for caste claims: As demands for caste based representation grow, a bigger House has more room for competing claims, which suits its social engineering, meaning coalitions built across caste groups.

Why is the BJP in a win-win position?

1. If the amendment passes: It gains additional seats to distribute, and the room for social engineering grows with them.
2. If it fails: Reallocation on population shifts a larger share of existing seats to the populous northern heartland States where it is strongest, and boundaries can still be redrawn.

Why does the Congress have no good option?

1. Its own plan cannot pass: Freezing the House at its present strength needs an amendment the party cannot carry.
2. The absolute numbers argument: Even with shares maintained, a bigger House widens the gap in absolute numbers between States, and majorities are decided by numbers.
3. Defeating an amendment leaves the default: The party counts the defeat of any amendment as a success, leaving reallocation on the latest Census in force.
4. What that costs: Keralam, Tamil Nadu and similarly placed States would lose representation in absolute numbers and in share, and the Congress would be blamed.
5. An ally wants clarity: The Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam will back delimitation that maintains current proportions, and wants to know how that is legislated.

Challenges

1. North-South divide: Southern States read reallocation on population as a penalty for successful population control. Eg. Tamil Nadu’s share falling from 7.1% to 6.3%.
2. The Rajya Sabha weakens: A much larger Lok Sabha outweighs the Council of States in joint sittings, cutting the federal chamber’s leverage.
3. Gerrymandering suspicion: Boundaries redrawn without a published method invite the charge that seats were shaped to suit the ruling party.

Way Forward

1. Publish the draft: The Centre should release the delimitation Bills and the allocation formula before introduction, so States can examine them.
2. Use the Inter-State Council: The allocation formula should go to the Inter-State Council to build a consensus balancing population with development indicators.
3. Match the Upper House: Any enlargement of the Lok Sabha should be matched by more Rajya Sabha seats, to preserve the Council’s weight.

Conclusion

Delimitation now turns on a choice between amending the Constitution to protect State shares and letting the default rule reallocate seats on population, and one party gains either way. Until the Centre publishes its proposals, the States that stand to lose cannot argue their case before the terms are drafted.

Delimitation in India

1. What it is: Delimitation fixes the boundaries of territorial constituencies to reflect population change, and reallocates seats among States.
2. Article 82: It requires a Delimitation Act after every Census. Article 170 provides the same readjustment for State Assemblies.
3. The freeze: The 42nd Amendment, 1976 froze seat allocation on the 1971 Census until 2000. The 84th Amendment, 2001 extended it to the first Census after 2026.
4. Past exercises: Delimitation Commissions have been constituted four times, in 1952, 1963, 1973 and 2002.

Matching Previous Year Question

“[2024] How many Delimitation Commissions have been constituted by the Government of India till December 2023? (a) One (b) Two (c) Three (d) Four* ANSWER: (d)”