Central Idea

The Black Sea grain deal lapsed on July 17. Turkey now seeks to resume the treaty.
Russia though had not agreed to renew the deal, citing unmet promises and difficulties in its own agricultural exports due to Western sanctions.

Black Sea Grain Initiative

The Initiative eased Russia’s naval blockade and saw the reopening of three key Ukrainian ports.
The UN and Turkey brokered the deal in July 2022, allowing cargo ships to travel between Ukrainian ports and undergo inspections to ensure they were not carrying arms.
The deal has been extended twice but is set to expire on July 17, 2023.
The agreement created procedures to safely export grain from certain ports to attempt to address the 2022 food crisis.
It provides a safe maritime humanitarian corridor for Ukrainian exports (particularly for food grains) from three of its key ports: Chornomorsk, Odesa and Yuzhny/Pivdennyi in the Black Sea.

Approximately 9.8 million tonnes of grains have been shipped so far since the deal was brokered.
People hoarding the grain in the hope of selling it for a sizable profit owing to the supply crunch were now obligated to sell.
The initiative has also been credited for having made a huge difference in the global cost of living crisis.

Ukraine’s Role: Ukraine is a significant exporter of food grains, including wheat and corn, and contributes to the UN’s food aid programs.
Impact of Russian Invasion: Russia’s invasion and blockade of Ukrainian ports raised concerns about food security and soaring prices globally.

Claims of Unmet Promises: Russia argues that promises made under the deal have not been fulfilled, affecting its own agricultural exports and fertilizers due to Western sanctions.
Obstacles to Agricultural Exports: Russia faces challenges with payment platforms, insurance, shipping, and logistics, even though there are no direct restrictions on its agricultural products.
Frustration and Goodwill: Russian President expressed frustration and stated that Russia has shown goodwill in extending the deal but feels enough is enough.
Shift in Grain Destinations: Russia claims the deal was meant to ensure global food security, but Ukraine has mainly exported to high- and middle-income countries, while the UN notes that food prices have cooled down, benefiting poorer nations.

Russian Wheat Export Dominance: Russia remains the world’s top wheat exporter, primarily targeting the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia.
Ukraine’s Declining Shipments: Ukraine’s grain shipments are projected to more than halve, with production at an 11-year low.
Shifting Markets: Ukraine’s grain markets have shifted from Asia and North Africa to Europe, driven by ease of shipment, causing a glut of Ukrainian grain and protests from farmers in Eastern European countries.

Black Sea is bound by Ukraine to the north and northwest, Russia and Georgia to the east, Turkey to the south, and Bulgaria and Romania to the west.
It links to the Sea of Marmara through the Bosphorus and then to the Aegean through the Dardanelles.

Black Sea has traditionally been Russia’s warm water gateway to Europe.
For Russia, the Black Sea is both a stepping stone to the Mediterranean.
It acts as a strategic buffer between NATO and itself.
It showcases the Russian power in the Mediterranean and to secure the economic gateway to key markets in southern Europe.
Russia has been making efforts to gain complete control over the Black Sea since the Crimean crisis of 2014.