Ultimate Assessment Program 2027/28/29 || 1:1 Mentorship Batch Admissions Open

Geography

IMD Forecasts Below Normal Monsoon Due to El Niño  

·

Why in the News?

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below normal monsoon rainfall for 2026, mainly due to the developing El Niño conditions.

Key Highlights

  • Expected rainfall: 92% of Long Period Average (LPA)
  • Classification: Below Normal Monsoon
  • Error margin: ±5%
  • Monsoon period: June to September
  • India receives over 70% of annual rainfall during this period

What is Long Period Average (LPA)

  • LPA: Average rainfall during monsoon season
  • Current LPA period: 1971 to 2020
  • LPA rainfall: 87 cm

Monsoon Classification by IMD

  • Above normal: >104% of LPA
  • Normal: 96% to 104%
  • Below normal: 90% to 96%
  • Deficient: <90%

2026 Forecast: 92% → Below Normal

[2011] La Niña is suspected to have caused recent floods in Australia. How is La Niña different from El Niño? 
1 La Niña is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperature in the equatorial Indian Ocean whereas El Niño is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperature in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. 
2 El Niño has an adverse effect on the southwest monsoon of India, but La Niña has no effect on monsoon climate. 
Which of the statements given above is/are correct? 
(a) 1 only (b) 2 only (c) Both 1 and 2 (d) Neither 1 nor 2

Click here to Download X-Factor Notes for FREE. Cover the entire Microthemes with PYQs.

Download free X-Factor Notes
Revised and updated X-Factor Notes for UPSC Mains 2026: nine subject booklets