In dry monsoon, a test of resilience

Why in the News?

India’s 2025 monsoon season is forecast to be the weakest in a decade, with 77% of the country’s land area already recording more than 20% rainfall deficit as of June 24. The season has exposed a structural tension: India’s agricultural and energy systems remain deeply dependent on monsoon rainfall. At the same time, the government’s own investments in renewables, rainwater harvesting, and rural employment infrastructure suggest the country may now be better placed to absorb the stress than in any previous deficit year.

What Has Made the 2025 Deficit Structurally Different from Past Deficits?

1. Scale of the deficit: As of June 24, 537 of 740 districts recorded over 20% rainfall deficit. Only eight of 36 States/UTs showed no deficiency. IMD forecast low to moderate rainfall across nearly half of India’s landmass.
2. El Niño is not the primary cause: El Niño emerged in early June, too late to explain the June deficit because its impact on the Indian monsoon occurs with a lag. The dominant driver is the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO).
3. MJO as the proximate driver: A moving system of winds and clouds that alternately enhances or suppresses rainfall. In June, its rain-suppressing phase remained over India, with a shift expected in early July.
4. June is ordinarily a high-rainfall month: IMD had forecast at least 92% of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall for June. The actual deficit of over 40% marks a significant departure from expectations.
5. The La Niña lag: La Niña’s favourable impact on the Indian monsoon also occurs with a lag and was unlikely to influence June rainfall. This raises the possibility of a drier-than-expected monsoon season.

What Is the Nature of India’s Dependence on the Monsoon and What Has Reduced It?

1. The baseline dependence: The southwest monsoon provides nearly 75% of India’s annual rainfall. It supports irrigation, groundwater recharge, reservoirs, hydropower, agriculture, food security, rural incomes and economic growth.
2. Infrastructure investments over a decade: India has expanded irrigation, rainwater harvesting, water storage and conservation. Official reports also show improving groundwater levels.
3. Renewable energy as the decisive structural shift: Solar and wind power have reduced dependence on hydropower, which relies on reservoir storage. This helps preserve water for irrigation and drinking purposes.
4. The residual dependence: Better resilience reduces stress but does not eliminate the need for planning and policy intervention.
5. Rural employment as a demand buffer: MGNREGS has created water conservation and storage assets while providing income support to rural households during rainfall deficits, helping stabilise rural demand.

What Existing Strengths Make Absorption of the 2025 Deficit Possible?

1. Major reservoirs at good storage levels: Good rainfall over the last two years has kept reservoir storage comfortable, reducing immediate pressure on irrigation, drinking water and hydropower.
2. Improvement in groundwater situation: Better groundwater levels provide an additional irrigation source where reservoir supplies become constrained.
3. Renewable energy reducing reservoir pressure: Expansion of solar and wind power lowers dependence on hydropower, allowing reservoirs to conserve water despite weak monsoon inflows.
4. Pre-monsoon rainfall altering farmer behaviour: Early forecasts encouraged many farmers to sow kharif crops using pre-monsoon showers, reducing exposure to the subsequent rainfall deficit.
5. The limits of absorption: Resilience has improved but remains incomplete, requiring continued policy intervention.

Where Does Resilience End and Vulnerability Begin? 

1. The central tension: India has strengthened resilience, but climate change is making monsoon deficits more frequent, prolonged and unpredictable, testing existing adaptation measures.
2. Quantitative unpredictability now exceeds planning assumptions: Climate change is making even good monsoon years less predictable, weakening the idea of a stable “normal monsoon.” The 2025 deficit could represent a recurring pattern rather than an exception.
3. Hydropower remains a structural vulnerability: Solar and wind reduce dependence on hydropower but cannot replace it entirely. Reservoir shortages during weak monsoons can still affect electricity generation and grid stability.
4. Agricultural productivity remains rainfall-sensitive: Investments in water conservation reduce drought impacts but cannot fully break agriculture’s dependence on monsoon performance, leaving food security vulnerable during prolonged deficits.
5. Rural demand suppression risk persists: Poor monsoons lower farm incomes and rural demand. MGNREGS mitigates this impact but cannot fully offset a season-long rainfall deficit.

What Must India Do That It Has Not Yet Done?

1. The policy direction is defined: Developing greater climate resilience remains the only long-term solution, as monsoon behaviour cannot be controlled
2. Quantitative rainfall forecasting must improve: More accurate district-level and sub-seasonal forecasts are essential for planning crop calendars, reservoir operations and water storage.
3. The transition from input-side to output-side resilience: Investments in storage, groundwater recharge and renewables must translate into stable farm output, rural incomes and food prices during rainfall shocks.
4. Climate adaptation must be recalibrated to current trajectories, not historical averages: Adaptation must continuously evolve because climate conditions are changing faster than the historical benchmarks used for planning.

Conclusion

India’s improved groundwater levels, major reservoir storage, and renewable energy capacity mean that a decade-worst monsoon need not produce a decade-worst crisis. However, the reduction in monsoon dependence is partial. Hydropower reliance persists, agricultural productivity remains rainfall-sensitive, and climate change is making deficits more frequent, longer, and harder to predict. Resilience built for last decade’s weather is already being outpaced by this decade’s climate.

PYQ Relevance

[UPSC 2023] Why is the South-West monsoon called ‘Purvaiya’ (easterly) in Bhojpur Region? How has this directional seasonal wind system influenced the cultural ethos of the region?

Linkage: The PYQ tests understanding of the South-West Monsoon and its significance. The article moves beyond monsoon mechanics to examine how changing monsoon behaviour is reshaping India’s climate resilience.