From UPSC perspective, the following things are important :
Prelims level : Not much
Mains level : Paper 2- India-China standoff
How India overcomes the challenge posed by China would have far-reaching effects. Role of Russia and the U.S. is important for India. This article discusses these factors and the significance of the outcome of the conflict started at Galwan.
Two takes on India’s China policy
- Following Galwan encounter, there are two views about the future of India’s China policy.
- Some say that structural constraints would limit dramatic changes in policy once the heat of the moment dissipates.
- While others say that the Galwan clash comes amidst the deepening crisis in bilateral relations over the last decade.
- Stalled boundary talks, a widening trade deficit, the clash of national interests in the region, and Chinese opposition to India’s global aspirations have together strained Sino-Indian relations.
- Galwan is the last straw, the argument goes, that broke the camel’s back.
So, what will be the outcome
- The relationship is likely to depend on how the current military confrontation in Ladakh is resolved.
- If it ends with a quick return to the status quo that prevailed in April, inertia is likely to limit radical policy departures.
- If the Ladakh crisis ends in a setback for India, the pressure on Delhi to radically reorient its China policy will mount.
What if the standoff continues?
- In that case strengthening India’s military and political hand against China is the immediate objective of Delhi’s post-Galwan diplomacy.
- The long term steps suggested include the construction of a military alliance with the US and other Western partner.
- As as well as economic decoupling and diversification.
- Short term steps are about being able to stare down the Chinese in the current military confrontation and hold its ground.
Role of Russia
- Three decades after the collapse of the Soviet Union, India’s dependence on Russian arms remains substantive.
- Rajnath Singh’s visit to Moscow amidst the crisis with China underlines the weight of the past in India’s security policy.
- India is also pressing other major defence suppliers, including France and Israel, to accelerate deliveries on contracted defence equipment.
- There have been reports from Russia, that China is pressing Moscow not to sell the new fighter aircraft to India.
- Russia and China are strong strategic partners today.
- While the past suggests India has a special claim to Russian affections, there is a Sino-Russian strategic cohabitation today in opposition to America
- How Russia responds to India’s request will have a major bearing on the future evolution of Delhi’s ties with Moscow.
Role of the U.S.
- Unlike Russia’s public stance of neutrality between India and China, Washington has come out in favour of Delhi.
- There was vocal public support of the US defence and foreign policy establishment against Chinese aggression at Galwan.
- Media reports from Delhi say the US is already supplying valuable real-time military intelligence of value to the Indian armed forces.
- Washington is apparently willing to do more but is letting Delhi decide the pace and intensity of that cooperation.
Challenges in the U.S. cooperation
- The uncertain political moment in the US amidst the general election scheduled for early November can’t be underestimated.
- A change of guard in Washington will certainly slow things down as the new administration settles down and reviews its priorities.
- America’s stakes in China are far higher than Russia’s.
- Profound economic interdependence of the U.S. and China is a significant political constraint on the US’s options.
- On deeper military cooperation with Washington, Delhi would want to move with care rather than rush into it as it did in 1962.
How will outcomes of the crisis matter for India
- If Delhi comes out of this crisis wounded, its troubles at home and the world will mount significantly.
- A weakened India will find recasting its China policy even harder.
- But victorious India will find its international political stock rising and its options on China expanding.
- Successful Indian resistance to China’s expansionism would be a definitive moment in the geopolitical evolution of Asia.
- The stakes for India and the world, then, are far higher today than in 1962.
Consider the question “Examine the issues that introduce friction in India-China relations. Also, elaborate on the scope of India’s alliance with the U.S to counter the challenges posed by China.”
Outcomes of the resistance will have a profound impact on India’s standing and India’s destiny.