Waves of rain: Odisha must prepare for repeated bouts of intense downpour

Why in the News

Odisha is going through one of its most intense monsoons, with 1,453 mm of rain between June and 25 September, a 29% excess. The rain arrived in repeated bouts that left no time to recover, exposing a gap between the State’s celebrated evacuation system and its drains, roads and towns.

Why was this monsoon so intense?

1. Many weather systems: An unusually large number of low-pressure systems (rain-bearing areas of low air pressure) formed, 11 over the Bay of Bengal. The latest made landfall near Kalingapatnam on 23 September.
2. Forecast missed: The India Meteorological Department (IMD) had forecast 90% of the long-period average (LPA) for India, the multi-decade mean used as the benchmark for a normal monsoon.
3. El Niño expectation: That forecast rested partly on an expected El Niño, a warming of the central Pacific that usually weakens the Indian monsoon.
4. From deficit to excess: The State finished June with a 47% deficit, after which the weather systems came to dominate its rainfall.
5. The takeaway: Regional weather systems overrode a national forecast built on a global driver, so Odisha got repeated deluges instead of a weak season.

Why do repeated bouts cause more damage?

1. Saturated ground: When an earlier bout has soaked the soil and filled local storage, the next bout turns almost at once into runoff, so floods come faster.
2. Extreme days: At least 60 locations have received more than 100 mm of rain in a single day.
3. Floods and landslides: Swelling rivers threaten floods downstream in Bhadrak and Jajpur, and landslides in hilly areas.
4. Two kinds of terrain: The hilly south faces slope failure, meaning landslides. The coast is a flat depositional plain built by several deltas, so water drains slowly into the sea.
5. People affected: By the State’s estimates, 5.2 lakh people were affected by the end of July and another 13.5 lakh by late August.

What does the long-term record show?

1. Rainfall bursts: A May study by the Odisha University of Agriculture and Technology, using data from 1901 to 2020, found maximum one-day and five-day rainfall bursts becoming more common.
2. Fewer heavy-rain days: The same study found the frequency of heavy-rain days dipping, so rain is concentrating into fewer, more intense spells.
3. Climate link: Climate change is increasingly correlated with a more protracted monsoon withdrawal and more intense rain events.

Do Odisha’s evacuation protocols match its civic engineering?

1. Zero-casualty policy: Odisha is renowned for its long-standing goal of zero casualties, built on early warning and mass evacuation. Its efficacy this season remains untested.
2. Drain deficiencies: The Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) flagged deficiencies in drain design and maintenance in 2024, and this season will stress them.
3. Urban waterlogging: Recurrent waterlogging in towns such as Berhampur shows the State is better at evacuating people than at draining its towns.
4. Transport disruption: Floods repeatedly cut inter-State highways and rail lines, so roads, trade and livelihoods cannot absorb back-to-back shocks.
5. Assessments pending: Crop and infrastructure damage assessments, and peak levels of the Baitarani, Budhabalanga, Jalaka and Rushikulya rivers after the 11th system fades, will show the season’s full cost.

Challenges

1. Design for single events: Drains and embankments are sized for isolated storms, not for back-to-back bursts on saturated ground.
2. Building on floodplains: Towns expand into low-lying land and fill natural drainage channels, which raises flood exposure.
3. Forecast blind spots: Seasonal forecasts built on global drivers miss regional extremes, so preparation keyed to them falls short.
4. Losses beyond lives: Evacuation saves lives but not crops, homes and roads, which drive the cost of recovery.

Way Forward

1. Redesign drains: Odisha’s urban local bodies should redesign drains for repeated intense bursts and correct the defects the audit found.
2. Plan for multiple events: The Odisha State Disaster Management Authority should plan for several extreme spells in one season, using burst trends in rainfall records.
3. Flood-proof transport: Raise and cross-drain vulnerable highway and rail stretches, working with the national highway and railway authorities.
4. Impact forecasting: Pair IMD warnings with district-level forecasts of runoff and waterlogging.

Conclusion

Odisha’s disaster system is built to move people out of harm’s way before a single storm, not to keep towns and roads working through a season of repeated deluges. It needs to pivot from anticipating isolated seasonal anomalies to preparing for repeated intense downpours, and the pending damage assessments will show how wide that gap is.

Matching Previous Year Question

“[2026, GS3, 10 marks] Discuss how the contradiction between ‘rapid infrastructure development’ and ‘disaster-risk reduction’ in ecologically-sensitive areas of India can be managed, with suitable examples.”