Why in the News
Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu’s three day state visit to Pakistan last month produced 20 memoranda of understanding (MoUs), including on defence and maritime security. The visit extends the Maldives’ push to diversify defence ties beyond India, and it risks giving Pakistan a role in the island nation’s security close to India’s maritime boundaries.
How have Maldives Pakistan ties evolved?
- Basis of ties: Geography and religion have largely shaped Maldives Pakistan ties. Pakistan has helped with medical and religious education and supported construction of the Maldivian parliament building.
- Traditional neutrality: The Maldives is closer to India than to Pakistan. In principle it has still stayed neutral between them and advocated peace between New Delhi and Islamabad.
- Wider defence diversification: Under Muizzu, the Maldives has signed defence MoUs with China and Turkey, bought armoured vehicles from the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and joined the Saudi Arabia led maritime defence coalition.
- The takeaway: The Maldives now has defence ties with all members of the “Mecca pact”, so Pakistan joins a widening circle of security partners next to India.
What did the visit to Islamabad produce?
- Range of MoUs: The MoUs cover socio economic development, cybersecurity, drug trafficking, and defence and maritime security. Both sides also aim to expand trade sharply within two years.
- Military talks: Muizzu met Pakistan’s Chief of Army Staff on military cooperation, regional security, defence partnerships and professional exchanges. This fuelled fears of Pakistan becoming another stakeholder in Maldivian security.
Why does Pakistan’s entry worry India?
- Challenge in the Indian Ocean: For Islamabad, the visit is a chance to challenge India’s presence and interests in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).
- New trilaterals: Since Operation Sindoor (India’s May 2025 strikes on Pakistan), Pakistan and China have held trilaterals with Bangladesh and with Afghanistan.
- Bloc without India: Pakistan has advocated reviving the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) and proposed a South Asian bloc without India.
- Bay of Bengal plans: Pakistan plans to expand its navy’s presence in the Bay of Bengal, adding to the many foreign navies already in the IOR.
Is India’s economic leverage enough?
- Aid as leverage: India uses economic help, such as credit lines and currency swaps, to win goodwill and influence. Eg. India has repeatedly rolled over $150 million of Maldivian Treasury bills (short term government borrowing).
- Case for restraint: With presidential elections two years away and Muizzu growing unpopular, India does not want to fuel anti India nationalism.
- Pakistan cannot be shut out: Religious and historic ties keep Pakistan present in the Maldives. Some MoUs, such as on cyber crime and drug trafficking, could even benefit India.
- Need for red lines: Defence ties carry security implications, so India must state its concerns and communicate its red lines.
Challenges
- Rival security stakeholders: Each new defence partner in the Maldives dilutes India’s place in the island’s security planning.
- Debt fragility: The Maldives’ external debt exceeds 115 per cent of its GDP, largely owed to China.
- Domestic backlash: Perceptions of Indian “Big Brother” interference fuel backlash. Eg. The “India Out” campaign of 2023 to 2024.
Way Forward
- Clear red lines: New Delhi should convey its concerns on Pakistan’s defence role directly to Male.
- Lead debt restructuring: India should lead a creditors’ club, a group of lenders that jointly reworks Maldivian debt, as an alternative to opaque Chinese loans.
- Conclude the FTA: The proposed Free Trade Agreement (FTA) should be concluded to open markets for Maldivian fish.
Conclusion
India’s economic restraint in the Maldives buys goodwill but does not keep a rival out of the island’s security ties. The marker to watch is how clearly India states its red lines before the next Maldivian presidential election.
Key numbers
- Trade target: From $13 million to $200 million within two years (Maldives and Pakistan).
- Indian credit lines: Worth Rs 4,850 crore.
- Currency swaps: $400 million and Rs 30 billion.
About India Maldives Relations
- Strategic location: Sea lanes near the Maldives carry about 50 per cent of India’s external trade and 80 per cent of its energy imports.
- Security partnership: In 1988 India sent troops and ships to foil a coup attempt against President Gayoom’s government. Joint exercises include Ekuverin, Dosti and Ekatha.
- Humanitarian goodwill: India supplied drinking water under Operation Neer in 2014 and medicines under Operation Sanjeevani during the pandemic.
Matching Previous Year Question
“[2025, GS3, 15 marks] Why is maritime security vital to protect India’s sea trade? Discuss maritime and coastal security challenges and the way forward.”
