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Challenging China
Context
The Chinese are about to extend their geographical advantage by building a new high-speed rail from Chengdu, running close by and parallel to the Arunachal border, up to Lhasa.
Manpower and Defence Budget: Comparison with China
- The Indian army, according to diverse sources, numbers between 12,50,000 and 14,00,000 officers and men.
- Chinese PLA actually has only 9,75,000 officers and men.
- They have downsized their army.
- China is an aspiring world power that spends $252 billion on its defence budget, as compared to $72.9 billion that India spends.
- Both countries limit their budget to around 2 per cent of their GDP, which in China’s case is five times our size.
Why does India need to reduce manpower in defense?
- Expensive: A major portion of the budget is spent on manpower, 81 percent of the army budget goes into manpower and maintenance. Gradually, manpower is going to get increasingly expensive.
- Also, our strategic options get constrained because the army gets 61 percent of the defense budget.
- We need to downsize the army by 2,00,000 men over five years through retirement and reduced recruitment.
- The reduction in manpower will save approximately Rs 30,000 crore, which can be equally divided between the three services.
Way forward: Bigger role to navy and air force
- We can achieve better conventional deterrence against China by giving bigger roles to the navy and air force.
- The first step is to accept that we are an asymmetric power and leverage the RMA (Revolution in Military Affairs) so that numerical inferiority is of no consequence.
- They are invulnerable on land, and their only strategic weakness is their reliance on the Indian Ocean SLOCs (sea lines of communications) for 70 percent of their imported oil.
- The only guarantee of Chinese non-aggression and good behavior is a well-crafted threat to their oil tankers and a complete naval mastery of the escalation that is bound to follow.
- India can also leverage the QUAD resources in various ways such as information.
- Build up the Car Nicobar airfield into a full-fledged airbase.
- We could negotiate with Oman for the use of the old RAF airbase at Masirah to dominate the Gulf of Hormuz and threaten the Chinese base at Djibouti.
Conclusion
China cannot be countered by throwing expensive manpower at the problem, but only by shifting the battlespace to advantageous geography, by a united navy and air force effort, while a technically advanced army holds the Himalayan border.
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Secrecy of Vote must in any election: SC
The Supreme Court has again held that in any election, be it to Parliament or State legislature, the maintenance of secrecy of voting is “a must”.
What is the Secret Vote?
- The secret vote/ secret ballot is a voting method in which a voter’s choices in an election or a referendum are anonymous.
- It aims for forestalling attempts to influence the voter by intimidation, blackmailing, and potential vote-buying.
- The system is one means of achieving the goal of political privacy.
What did the Supreme Court rule?
- Secrecy is a part of the fundamental right of freedom of expression.
- The confidentiality of choice strengthens democracy.
- The principle of secrecy of ballots is an important postulate of constitutional democracy, the court said.
- It is the policy of the law to protect the right of voters to the secrecy of the ballot.
- Even a remote or distinct possibility that a voter can be forced to disclose for whom she has voted would act as a positive constraint and a check on the freedom to exercise of the franchise.
Voter’s discretion is allowed
- A voter can also voluntarily waive the privilege of non-disclosure.
- The privilege ends when the voter decides to waive the privilege and instead volunteers to disclose to whom she had voted.
- Nor can a complaint be entertained from any, including the person who wants to keep the voter’s mouth sealed as to why she disclosed for whom she voted said the court.
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What is Gross Environment Product?
The Uttarakhand government recently announced it will initiate valuation of its natural resources in the form of ‘Gross Environment Product’ (GEP), said to be along the lines of Gross Domestic Product (GDP).
Why such a move?
- The idea of the valuation of the components of the environment is not new.
- But it got impetus following rapid degradation of ecosystems, which led to adverse impacts on more than 60 percent of services we get from the ecosystems.
What is Gross Environment Product (GEP)?
- GEP is the measure of ecosystem services of any area.
- It reflects the aggregated annual value of goods and services provided by ecosystems (forests, water bodies, oceans, etc.) to people in a given region, such as at district levels, state, and country.
- It entails the establishment of a natural capital accounting framework by integrating ecological benefits into common measures of economic growth such as GDP.
- It summarizes the value of ecosystem services in a single monetary metric.
Evolution of GEP
- The term “ecosystem services” was coined in 1981 to attract academics towards this aspect.
- Ecosystem services represent the benefits humans get: Forests, lakes, and grasslands; timber and dyed; carbon sequestration and nutrient cycling; soil formation and productivity; and tourism.
- The definition is still in the process of evolution. The concept received attention and now is part of global knowledge.
Advantages offered
- GEP can be applied as a scientific basis for Eco-Compensation and public financial transfers.
- For example, Finance Commission’s revenue-sharing formula between the Union and the states including forest cover as a determining factor in a state’s share.
- GEP can be applied to measure the status of ecosystem services, which is an important indicator of sustainable development.
- It is also a critical indicator for measuring the progress of Eco-civilization.
- Its implementation can help assess the impact of anthropological pressure on our ecosystem and natural resources- air, water, soil, forests.
The Himalayan context
- The Himalayas contribute substantially to the sustainability of the Gangetic Plains where 500 million people live.
- The Union government incorporated the value of ecosystem services of its states in national accounting.
- According to the recommendation of the 12th and 13th Finance Commissions, grants were transferred to forest-rich states in amounts corresponding to their forest covers.
- However, considering only the forest cover in transferring funds to states is inadequate.
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Right to be Forgotten in India
A TV celebrity has approached the Delhi High Court with a plea saying that his videos, photographs, and articles, etc. be removed from the internet citing his “Right to be Forgotten”.
What is the plea about?
- The plea mentions that the posts and videos on the internet related to him have caused the petitioner psychological pain for his diminutive acts.
- The plea also states that the petitioner’s mistakes in his personal life become and remains in public knowledge for generations to come.
- Consequently, the values enshrined under Article 21 of the Indian Constitution and the emergent jurisprudential concept of the Right to be Forgotten becomes extremely relevant in the present case.”
What is the ‘Right to be Forgotten’ in the Indian context?
- The Right to be Forgotten falls under the purview of an individual’s right to privacy, which is governed by the Personal Data Protection Bill that is yet to be passed by Parliament.
- In 2017, the Right to Privacy was declared a fundamental right by the Supreme Court in its landmark verdict.
What does the Personal Data Protection Bill say about this?
- The Personal Data Protection Bill was introduced in Lok Sabha on December 11, 2019, and it aims to set out provisions meant for the protection of the personal data of individuals.
- Clause 20 under Chapter V of this draft bill titled “Rights of Data Principal” mentions the “Right to be Forgotten.”
- It states that the “data principal (the person to whom the data is related) shall have the right to restrict or prevent the continuing disclosure of his personal data by a data fiduciary”.
- Therefore, broadly, under the Right to be forgotten, users can de-link, limit, delete or correct the disclosure of their personal information held by data fiduciaries.
- A data fiduciary means any person, including the State, a company, any juristic entity, or any individual who alone or in conjunction with others determines the purpose and means of the processing of personal data.
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What is National Security Council (NSC)?
The budgetary allocation for the National Security Council Secretariat (NSCS) increased 10 times from ₹33.17 crores in 2016-17 to ₹333.58 crores in 2017-18.
National Security Council (NSC)
- The NSC is an executive government agency tasked with advising the Prime Minister’s Office on matters of national security and strategic interest.
- It was established by the former PM of India Atal Bihari Vajpayee on 19 November 1998, with Brajesh Mishra as the first National Security Advisor.
- Prior to the formation of the NSC, these activities were overseen by the Principal Secretary to the preceding Prime Minister.
Members
- Besides the NSA the Deputy National Security Advisors, the Ministers of Defence, External Affairs, Home, Finance of the Government of India, and the Vice Chairman of the NITI Aayog are members of the National Security Council.
- PM can chair the meeting of NSC (for eg – PM chaired the meeting of NSC Post Pulwama to discuss heightened tension with Pakistan).
- Other members may be invited to attend its monthly meetings, as and when is required.
Organizational structure
- The NSC is the apex body of the three-tiered structure of the national security management system in India.
- The three tiers are the Strategic Policy Group, the National Security Advisory Board, and a secretariat from the Joint Intelligence Committee.
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[pib] Periodic Labour Force Survey (2019 –2020)
The Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) Annual Report for July, 2019 to June 2020 was recently released by the National Statistical Office (NSO).
Periodic Labour Force Survey
- Considering the importance of the availability of labor force data at more frequent time intervals, National Statistical Office (NSO) launched PLFS in April 2017.
- The objective of PLFS is primarily twofold:
- to estimate the key employment and unemployment indicators (viz. Worker Population Ratio, Labour Force Participation Rate, Unemployment Rate) in the short time interval of three months for the urban areas only in the Current Weekly Status (CWS).
- to estimate employment and unemployment indicators in both ‘Usual Status’ and CWS in both rural and urban areas annually.
Various dimensions of the survey
The PLFS gives estimates of Key employment and unemployment Indicators:
- Labour Force Participation Rate (LFPR): LFPR is defined as the percentage of persons in the labor force (i.e. working or seeking or available for work) in the population.
- Worker Population Ratio (WPR): WPR is defined as the percentage of employed persons in the population.
- Unemployment Rate (UR): UR is defined as the percentage of persons unemployed among the persons in the labor force.
- Activity Status- Usual Status: When the activity status is determined on the basis of the reference period of the last 365 days preceding the date of the survey, it is known as the usual activity status of the person.
- Activity Status- Current Weekly Status (CWS): The activity status determined on the basis of a reference period of the last 7 days preceding the date of the survey is known as the CWS of the person.
Highlights of the third report
- The Labour force participation ratio has increased to 40.1% in 2019-20 from 37.5% and 36.9%, respectively, in the last two years.
- Worker population rate improved to 38.2% in 2019-20 compared with 35.3% in 2018-19 and 34.7% in 2017-18.
- The unemployment rate fell to 4.8% in 2019-20. In 2018-19, it stood at 5.8% and 6.1% in 2017-18.
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[Burning Issue] Whatsapp snooping with Pegasus Spyware
A global collaborative investigative project has discovered Israeli spyware Pegasus was used to target thousands of people across the world.
In India, at least 300 people are believed to have been targeted, including two serving Ministers in the government, three Opposition leaders, several journalists, social activists and business persons.
What is Pegasus?
- All spyware do what the name suggests — they spy on people through their phones.
- Pegasus works by sending an exploit link, and if the target user clicks on the link, the malware or the code that allows the surveillance is installed on the user’s phone.
- A presumably newer version of the malware does not even require a target user to click a link.
- Once Pegasus is installed, the attacker has complete access to the target user’s phone.
- A worrying aspect that has been revealed is the ability of the spyware to infect a device by a ‘zero-click’ attack, which does not require any action from the phone’s user.
A ‘Black Hole’ with no escape
- What makes Pegasus really dangerous is that it spares no aspect of a person’s identity.
- It makes older techniques of spying seem relatively harmless.
- It can intercept every call and SMS, read every email and monitor each messaging app.
- Pegasus can also control the phone’s camera and microphone and has access to the device’s location data.
- The app advertises that it can carry out “file retrieval”, which means it could access any document that a target might have stored on their phone.
Dysfunctions created by Pegasus
Privacy breach: The very existence of a surveillance system, whether under a provision of law or without it, impacts the right to privacy under Article 21 and the exercise of free speech under Article 19.
Curbing Dissent: It reflects a disturbing trend with regard to the use of hacking software against dissidents and adversaries. In 2019 also, Pegasus software was used to hack into HR & Dalit activists.
Individual safety: In the absence of privacy, the safety of journalists, especially those whose work criticizes the government, and the personal safety of their sources is jeopardised.
Self-Censorship: Consistent fear over espionage may grapple individuals. This may impact their ability to express, receive and discuss such ideas.
State-sponsored mass surveillance: The spyware coupled with AI can manipulate digital content in users’ smartphones. This in turn can polarize their opinion by distant controller.
National security: The potential misuse or proliferation has the same, if not more, ramifications as advanced nuclear technology falling into the wrong hands.
Snooping in India: Legality check
For Pegasus-like spyware to be used lawfully, the government would have to invoke both the IT Act and the Telegraph Act. Communication surveillance in India takes place primarily under two laws:
- Telegraph Act, 1885: It deals with interception of calls.
- Information Technology Act, 2000: It was enacted to deal with surveillance of all electronic communication, following the Supreme Court’s intervention in 1996.
Cyber security safeguards in India
- National Cyber Security Policy: The policy was developed in 2013 to build secure and resilient cyberspace for India’s citizens and businesses.
- Indian Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-In): The CERT-In is responsible for incident responses including analysis, forecasts and alerts on cybersecurity issues and breaches.
- Indian Cyber Crime Coordination Centre (I4C): The Central Government has rolled out a scheme for the establishment of the I4C to handle issues related to cybercrime in the country in a comprehensive and coordinated manner.
- Budapest Convention: There also exists Budapest Convention on Cybercrime. However India is not a signatory to this convention.
The bigger question: Government Involvement
It is worth asking why the government would need to hack phones and install spyware when existing laws already offer impunity for surveillance. The wide array of victims clearly brings the central government and its role to question.
In the absence of parliamentary or judicial oversight, electronic surveillance gives the executive the power to influence both the subject of surveillance and all classes of individuals, resulting in a chilling effect on free speech.
Is Right to Privacy a myth?
- Only in such exceptional circumstances, however, can an individual’s right to privacy be superseded to protect the national interest.
- In today’s times, when fake news and illegal activities such as cyber terrorism on the dark web are on the rise, the importance of reserving such powers to conduct surveillance cannot be undermined.
What should be the basis for surveillance?
The existing provisions are insufficient to protect against the spread of authoritarianism since they allow the executive to exercise a disproportionate amount of power.
- There should be some reasonable basis or some tangible evidence to initiate or seek approval for interception by State authorities.
- Any action without such evidence or basis would be struck down by courts as arbitrary, or invasive of one’s right to privacy.
- Any digression from the ethical and legal parameters set by law would be tantamount to a deliberate invasion of citizens’ privacy and make India a surveillance state.
Solution lies in Judicial Oversight
Surveillance reform is the need of the hour in India.
- The need for judicial oversight over surveillance systems in general, and judicial investigation into the Pegasus hacking in particular is very essential.
- Only the judiciary can be competent to decide whether specific instances of surveillance are proportionate, whether less onerous alternatives are available, and to balance the necessity of the government’s objectives with the rights of the impacted individuals.
- Not only are existing protections weak but the proposed legislation related to the personal data protection fails to consider surveillance while also providing wide exemptions to government.
Way forward
- The security of a device becomes one of the fundamental bedrocks of maintaining user trust as society becomes more and more digitized.
- There is an urgent need to take up this issue seriously by constituting an independent high-level inquiry with credible members and experts that can restore confidence and conduct its proceedings transparently.
Conclusion
- We must recognize that national security starts with securing the smartphones of every single Indian by embracing technologies such as encryption rather than deploying spyware.
- This is a core part of our fundamental right to privacy.
- This intrusion by spyware is not merely an infringement of the rights of the citizens of the country but also a worrying development for India’s national security apparatus.
References:
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Challenges in withdrawing stimulus measures
Context
Economic-policy discussions increasingly revolve around the question of when and how quickly central banks should pull back the uber-stimulus measures implemented last year in response to the pandemic.
Why withdrawal is challenging?
- Uncertainties: Both parts of the question (when and how) call for finely balanced judgment to account for uncertainties that are in play.
- Policy changes by major central banks can have far-reaching implications for economic and financial well-being, affecting not just those directly involved but also the many nations.
- To answer the question, an assessment of three current issues is required:
- The labor market.
- The surge in inflation.
- The risk of not being able to recover quickly in the event of a policy mistake.
Let’s look into these three issues
1) Labour market puzzle
- Despite massive demand, the labor market is unable to match unemployed workers to jobs.
- The situation is particularly stark in the US.
- Job data for April show that there are a record number of job openings in the US—more than nine million—labor-force participation remains stubbornly low, and unemployment high, compared to pre-pandemic levels.
- The labor market’s persistent malfunctioning—particularly employers’ struggle to find employees—is likely to lead to higher wage growth, a possibility that fuels concern about the second issue-inflation.
2) Inflation: Is it transitory or long-lasting?
- There is a view that the current uptick in inflation will sharply reverse itself.
- As the year progresses, it is expected that the base effect will wash out together with the supply and demand mismatches.
- However, there is a possibility of supply bottlenecks, changes in supply chains, and lasting inventory management challenges.
3) Policy challenges: To act or not to act
- Policymakers must be mindful of the risks associated with any given course of action—including inaction.
- In the face of such uncertainty, it is wise to ask not just what could go wrong but also what the consequences of a policy mistake would be.
- Under the current conditions, a wrong move could have far-reaching, lasting effects.
- Those favoring a continuation of loose monetary policies argue that central bankers still have tools to overcome inflation should it persist.
- But as the opponents are quick to point out, those tools have become increasingly ineffective and difficult to calibrate.
- The risk of inaction (or inertia) in this case may be larger than that of acting early.
Options with systemically important central banks
- In the case of the US, economic growth is buoyant, fiscal policy is also extremely expansionary, and businesses and households alike have significant accumulated savings that they will now be spending down.
- The conditions are now ripe for the Fed to start reducing—gradually and carefully—its bond-buying program from its current rate of $120 billion per month.
- The European Central Bank, however, is in a different position.
- While eurozone growth is picking up, the level of financial support is not as strong as in the US, and the private-sector recovery is not as advanced.
- The hardest case to call in the UK.
- With growth, fiscal support, and the private sector’s prospects more finely balanced.
- Other central bankers around the world also have an important role to play.
- Central bankers elsewhere should be running their own scenario analyses and formulating appropriate response plans.
Conclusion
There is nothing wrong with hoping that three systemically important central banks will get to their destination smoothly. But the journey is far from over, and the risk of someone slipping is not negligible.
Back2Basics: Labour force participation rate
- The labor force participation rate is a measure of an economy’s active workforce.
- The formula for the number is the sum of all workers who are employed or actively seeking employment divided by the total noninstitutionalized, civilian working-age population.
- Used in conjunction with the unemployment numbers, it offers some perspective into the state of the economy.
Source:
https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/withdrawal-symptoms-central-banking-fast-and-slow/2295940/
